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  • #10,801
  • Edited 8:33am Mar 20, 2010 5:46am | Edited 8:33am
Quoting Alexandra
That one is perhaps the most interesting pair on the board. The argument is well framed. The longer term charts cannot be ingnored unless one is banking on the S/R levels and stopped above. The counter argument is well versed but requires a daily trigger at this point to let one feel good about holding (or entering for those asleep at the wheel). Actions must come from the daily, though there is effective argument on both sides. Perhaps one of those cases for the fundamental view to influence things.
Perhaps one of those cases for the fundamental view to influence things.

Alexandra, thanks for you comments. As our resident fundamentalist, would you go a bit further with this please?

I'm still at the chart stage and am trying to keep that clear in my head at the moment. Apart from the 'big ones' like NFP and BoE, BoJ interest rate changes I tend to avoid fundamental stuff in case the interpretation of the charts gets 'cluttered'. When i feel more confident of chart reading I may wander into the flower-studded fields of fundies, but at the moment I refer to stay on the clearer railwaylines of candles, trendlines and S and R.

Some help on the fundamental view on AUDUSD would be appreciated.

All the best etc.
  • #10,802
  • Mar 20, 2010 5:56am Mar 20, 2010 5:56am
Quoting stewrigh
Love this thread.

Not sure if you do this on purpose Strat(think you probly do tho).

IMHO there are 2 things we need to master in trading - both covered at length by Strat.

1 - PASR
2 - Our Gremlins.

I've found PASR relatively easy to understand(trading it is the hard part LOL).
Its my Gremlins I had trouble with and put downs like this from Strat helped me to realise that I needed to 'shape up or ship out'.

Trading is hard(VERY hard) and to survive we need to be mentally tough. If someone gets upset by a few words from Strat maybe they...
Not sure if you do this on purpose Strat (think you probably do though).

Oh yes indeedy do – now that we are at almost 1million views, I quickly need to sort out the wheat from the chaff. I haven’t the time or patience to nurse babies.

Thanks Strat - you're a grumpy old git - but I like you.

Well that’s a big improvement from “asshole” that the trouble and strife calls me!

I’m not really either in real life but on here its just my way of quickly analyzing someone’s temperament and personality.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,803
  • Mar 20, 2010 8:32am Mar 20, 2010 8:32am
Quoting stewrigh
Thanks Strat - you're a grumpy old git
X100

This is the guy that taught me to trade daily and weekly candles and hauled my arse off a 15minute chart. I guess I couldn't really go.
See you all around.
Nicola
  • #10,804
  • Mar 20, 2010 8:43am Mar 20, 2010 8:43am
Quoting elitejets
X100

This is the guy that taught me to trade daily and weekly candles and hauled my arse off a 15minute chart. I guess I couldn't really go.
See you all around.
Nicola
I guess I couldn't really go.
See you all around.

Well I certainly hope so. That is good news indeed!

Christopher
  • #10,805
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:02am Mar 20, 2010 9:02am
Someone has to stay and stop you all buying USDJPY!
Some funnymentals.

March is the end of the fiscal year in Japan. For 8 out of the last 10 years the yen has strengthened in the last two weeks of the month because yen profits are being repatriated to Japan for year end accounting. It is a massive flow and it does affect the currency. This is a real phenomenon and you can google "yen repatriation" if you want more reading on the subject.
You may have noticed this past week how this affected yen pairs, particularly in the asian session. This pressure will continue until at least the middle of next week and then it will die off until the end of the month.

What is interesting this time is that USDJPY has not really declined in this period, it has been supported by bonds and rising stock market making it a really choppy trade.

I recommend that you pass on this pair for the next week unless we get a really good sharp spike down that would be a good buying opportunity (as I am sure Alexandra will tell you) and wait until it plays itself out.

You should also bear this information in mind when you are trading any of the yen crosses in the coming week. just be aware of what the pressures on your trade will be during asian session times.

Nicola
  • #10,806
  • Mar 20, 2010 11:19am Mar 20, 2010 11:19am
Quoting elitejets
X100

This is the guy that taught me to trade daily and weekly candles and hauled my arse off a 15minute chart. I guess I couldn't really go.
See you all around.
Nicola
Glad to see you back Nicola
  • #10,807
  • Mar 20, 2010 12:18pm Mar 20, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting elitejets
Someone has to stay and stop you all buying USDJPY!
Some funnymentals.

March is the end of the fiscal year in Japan. For 8 out of the last 10 years the yen has strengthened in the last two weeks of the month because yen profits are being repatriated to Japan for year end accounting. It is a massive flow and it does affect the currency. This is a real phenomenon and you can google "yen repatriation" if you want more reading on the subject.
You may have noticed this past week how this affected yen pairs, particularly in the asian session....
Good to see you back. Thanks for this. Forgot all about it.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #10,808
  • Mar 20, 2010 1:07pm Mar 20, 2010 1:07pm
hello Strat's gang
I just like to have an opinion from you guys or Strat himself:

Let's say I have 100k to trade, would you send 20 k to the broker and trade using 1:5 leverage (assuming we are trading 1:1), in order to trade as I had funded the account with 100k?

This is just a way to:

1) Have a hard stop in case the cat push the sell button in strong uptrend while we are away
2) Keep money in our trusted bank
3) Keep money in two accounts (our bank and the broker's bank)

I appreciate yopur comments
Thanks and good luck
Max
  • #10,809
  • Mar 20, 2010 1:20pm Mar 20, 2010 1:20pm
Well, since it is the weekend, I thought I would take the time to tell you all a bit about myself. I don't think I formally introduced myself on this thread. I've been interested in markets for years, but didn't actually fund a trading account until May of 2008.

I'm originally from Florida, but have been in Canada now for 7 years (that's a story in itself). For years, I have designed websites for small and medium sized American businesses, and during that same time, I watched all my US dollars that I earned wither away as the the loonie soared against the greenback. That's what got me interested in forex to begin with.

Day after day, I would look at the Canadian dollar gain against Uncle buck and think "why". I came across some demo program with FXCM back in January of 08, but it wasn't until I stumbled upon Baby Pips and Forex Factory in February - March of 08 (specifically the James 16 thread) that I began to get somewhat serious about trading.

I funded an account in the middle of May and was ready to go. Things went okay at first until I tried to be cute trading mini dow and s and p futures on a 15 minute chart. I got killed on a short squeeze and was too stubborn to close them both. Another stupid thing I use to do was scalp GBP/YEN and EURO/YEN. If they were shooting up fast, I bought and vicki verka as Strat says. It worked for awhile until it DIDN'T.

At that point, enough was enough. It was time to become more disciplined and to get back to the core basics of price action. In the beginning, I was too high strung and trigger happy. Then, in October of 08, the unthinkable happened: I got burned on a hammer (CAD/YEN) and a shooting star (USD/CAD). It was the height of the crisis and the news noise was sending currencies up, down, left, and right.

After that, I had had enough. It was time to find another way to trade (my posting history backs up this statement). From MACD divergence to CCI to gann, I tried it all. Even VSA. The last thing I want to do is knock the traders that use the stuff. It just wasn't consistent enough for me.

Once I was able to work through some personal things last winter, I committed to Strat's way of trading. I have no desire to sit in front of a computer for 12+ hours a day biting my nails for 20 to 30 pips. I've been demoing Strat's method on a number of exotic pairs (GBP/AUD, GPB/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD) that I don't normally trade and have been floored by the results. Any one of these trades would have left me very happy account wise.

If you are serious about your trading, this is the place to be. Now, Ms. Market, give me a stress free trade setup! I'm dying here! Euro/Yen is tempting me . . .

I think this might be the longest post I have ever put forth on Forex Factory. I apologize in advance, but if this helps someone, so be it.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #10,810
  • Mar 20, 2010 2:27pm Mar 20, 2010 2:27pm
Good to see you back!

Quoting elitejets
X100

This is the guy that taught me to trade daily and weekly candles and hauled my arse off a 15minute chart. I guess I couldn't really go.
See you all around.
Nicola
Annoying Precision
  • #10,811
  • Mar 20, 2010 6:00pm Mar 20, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting elitejets
X100

This is the guy that taught me to trade daily and weekly candles and hauled my arse off a 15minute chart. I guess I couldn't really go.
See you all around.
Nicola
Thank you Nicola.

As everyone who has read the thread from Post # 1 knows, Nicola and I go back a long way (in trading terms). She was my inspiration for starting this thread and helping others to trade my method.

She was my first student and took to my method and trading like a duck to water but not content to stop there she has managed to blend funnymentals with the technicals in a way that makes you very proud.

Having you back on here and in my trading life again is worth far more than my pip hauls on EURAUD, EURCAD, GBPAUD and GBPCAD combined. Thank you again.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,812
  • Mar 20, 2010 7:09pm Mar 20, 2010 7:09pm
Quoting strat
Thank you Nicola.

As everyone who has read the thread from Post # 1 knows, Nicola and I go back a long way (in trading terms). She was my inspiration for starting this thread and helping others to trade my method.

She was my first student and took to my method and trading like a duck to water but not content to stop there she has managed to blend funnymentals with the technicals in a way that makes you very proud.

Having you back on here and in my trading life again is worth far more than my pip hauls on EURAUD, EURCAD, GBPAUD and GBPCAD combined....
a lyric comes to mind " LOVE IS IN THE AIR "...

yes good to see Nicola back.....and " our STRATS a very very Nice Man ""



baz
  • #10,813
  • Mar 20, 2010 7:37pm Mar 20, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting baz
a lyric comes to mind " LOVE IS IN THE AIR "...

yes good to see Nicola back.....and " our STRATS a very very Nice Man ""



baz
" our STRATS a very very Nice Man ""

Thanks baz but I don't think ericjschroed shares your opinion!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,814
  • Mar 20, 2010 8:03pm Mar 20, 2010 8:03pm
Quoting dorellino
hello Strat's gang
I just like to have an opinion from you guys or Strat himself:

Let's say I have 100k to trade, would you send 20 k to the broker and trade using 1:5 leverage (assuming we are trading 1:1), in order to trade as I had funded the account with 100k?

This is just a way to:

1) Have a hard stop in case the cat push the sell button in strong uptrend while we are away
2) Keep money in our trusted bank
3) Keep money in two accounts (our bank and the broker's bank)

I appreciate yopur comments
Thanks and good luck
Max
Max,

You don’t want to hear this but you’re going to get it.

I look at your posts and you seem to be on every thread (including the indicator threads) going in FF and probably more outside FF.

You are typical of the guy who has heard that money can be made trading and you want a part of it and you are searching everywhere for a shortcut to get at it.

Had you taken the trouble to read the thread and yes I know its long but yesterday I started on Post #1 and have been copying all relevant posts up to 1000. I will continue to do this until I get back here.

If I, as the originator of the thread, and some of our Certified Trainers, can go back and read it then there is absolutely NO REASON why anyone else can do it.

Had you read the thread, you would have read, “THERE IS A HOLY GRAIL AND I KNOW WHAT IT IS”.

If you had carried on reading you would have found what THE HOLY GRAIL is!

If you had carried on reading you would have realized that (1) either your elusive search for making money at trading is over or (2) that you are not cut out for trading.

As long as you are controlled by GREED, you will continue searching for what you will NEVER find.

Until you GET CONTROL of your “inner self” and accept that trading is just another business that requires an apprenticeship, you will NEVER MAKE MONEY AT IT.

As far as your $100K goes, whether illusionary or not, I will send you my bank account numbers so that you can GIVE it to me. This will save you years of frustration and stress LOSING your money trading.



15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,815
  • Mar 20, 2010 8:07pm Mar 20, 2010 8:07pm
try not to let the thought effect your trading to much, strat

Quoting strat
" our STRATS a very very Nice Man ""

Thanks baz but I don't think ericjschroed shares your opinion!
Annoying Precision
  • #10,816
  • Mar 20, 2010 8:33pm Mar 20, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting Flem26
Well, since it is the weekend, I thought I would take the time to tell you all a bit about myself. I don't think I formally introduced myself on this thread. I've been interested in markets for years, but didn't actually fund a trading account until May of 2008.

I'm originally from Florida, but have been in Canada now for 7 years (that's a story in itself). For years, I have designed websites for small and medium sized American businesses, and during that same time, I watched all my US dollars that I earned wither away as the the loonie soared...
Thanks Flem26.

I wish all students on the thread would give us their background as it is often inspiring for those who are “shy” or reluctant to convert from lurker to participant.

It was all very interesting until:

Now, Ms. Market, give me a stress free trade setup! I'm dying here! Euro/Yen is tempting me

This is frustration. You have not learned CONTROL or PATIENCE

The Daily time frame can be very frustrating BUT only if you let it.

The Daily time frame can be very rewarding BUT only if you let it.

While you are learning and practicing basic PASR you may think waiting to “SEE” an opportunity is doing nothing. WRONG! It is building and testing your PATIENCE skills.

As I went through the 1st 1000 posts yesterday, there were many posters who have since fallen by the wayside.

I will bet that the majority LOST PATIENCE and dropped down to lower time frames and subsequently lost their accounts and desire to trade. We know for sure that AminAS was one of those as he wrote and told me so.

As for those who are still with us, their PATIENCE skills have increased along with their trading accounts.

Put simply, the Daily time frame when the markets are not trending is BORING. Many will tell you it is BORING even when the markets ARE trending.

Even simpler, the Daily time frame allows you to live your life in any way you want with the rewards it provides.

WAIT for the OPPORTUNITY to present itself.

Let the OPPORTUNITY confirm itself.

Trade the CONFIRMED OPPORTUNITY.

DO NOT TRADE ANYTHING ELSE.

NO OPPORTUNITY – NO TRADE
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,817
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:53pm Mar 20, 2010 9:53pm
Quoting strat
Thanks Flem26....
I'm just anxious to apply what I have learned. I'm not stupid enough to just throw my account at anything though--I'd like to think that I learned my lesson. Just venting more than anything else and waiting to fill those wellies . . . thanks again for the in your face, hard-nosed, style. I need it.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #10,818
  • Edited 10:56pm Mar 20, 2010 10:38pm | Edited 10:56pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Perhaps one of those cases for the fundamental view to influence things.

Alexandra, thanks for you comments. As our resident fundamentalist, would you go a bit further with this please?

I'm still at the chart stage and am trying to keep that clear in my head at the moment. Apart from the 'big ones' like NFP and BoE, BoJ interest rate changes I tend to avoid fundamental stuff in case the interpretation of the charts gets 'cluttered'. When i feel more confident of chart reading I may wander into the flower-studded fields...
Yes, honestly, this is a blended, view. I desprately want to short this market on a technical basis, seeing the LH, LH of recent weeks that many have advocated as the initial signs of an end to the bull run; however, fundamentally, I see the whole thing as simply a consolidative pause in a market that has made an initial up move and become overheated given the rate differentials and pressure for commodities, that being industrial demand versus initial hopes of financial stability. The longer term charts remain bullish in pattern; notably the high monthly close and the daily strength without significant recent support breaks. Accordingly, I remain long this market. We did point out the proper technical play off the top of the TL and resultant daily bar, which currently has those short in the money. I am of the view however, that that is the ripple and not yet the wave.

Why excatly are we writing off AUDUSD? Was this...
Posted Feb 19, 2010

As for USDJPY, it interests me if the Yen weakens over the course of the next 10 days against historical trends. Strat prefers to wait for the giant to awaken. Nicola thinks I am nutty. Nevertheless, I continue my tired old advocation of buying overzealous dips in this market on appropriate PA. Firiday's close, I believe, was the highest in 18 days. That trendline did not bounce much yet. "C'mon Bessie...you can do it."
  • #10,819
  • Mar 20, 2010 10:55pm Mar 20, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Perhaps one of those cases for the fundamental view to influence things.

Alexandra, thanks for you comments. As our resident fundamentalist, would you go a bit further with this please?

I'm still at the chart stage and am trying to keep that clear in my head at the moment....
Christopher, I’m very confused reading your posts and I haven’t had a drink!

If you are not sure what to do on technical analysis, funny mentals will not help you, in fact they will only confuse you more.

In all my years of trading I have always believed that fundamental analysis is factored into PRICE and therefore the charts. I have never come unstuck just trading technical analysis. The Big Boys always know the news/fundamentals long before the talking heads and then us, and build it into their pricing. This is then reflected in the price charts.

The only funny mentals I am interested in are country interest rates which then tell me, in theory, what the money flow should be.

Do not be influenced by how Alexandra trades. She is very experienced and trades like Mohammed Ali – Floats like a butterfly and Stings like a bee. She, like most funny mentalists, take long term positions and HOLD until the funny mentals change.

For example, on USDJPY, she probably filled her wellies at psycho 86.00 and will hold and fill more wellies with each dip (probably at 88 and 89) until she sees a change in the USD – JPY relationship. She is prepared to go through deep drawdowns as she holds on – are you? Do you have the funds to do this? Do you have her experience? Do you have the risk tolerance? Do you have the personality?

This is LONG TERM trading Christopher. I do long term trading but technically not funny mentally and when you get to that level, we can discuss it.

Alexandra – this is NOT degrading how you trade, far from it, I admire what you do. I just need Christopher to be clear on the differences between our trading and funny mental trading.

As for technical analysis:

The Big Boss is telling you EVERYTHING you need to know. It is on its way to psycho 0.9300 – can you see that? If so, why are you thinking short?

There is NOTHING on the Big Boss or Boss to tell you to start looking for a short trade.

There is EVERYTHING on the Big Boss and Boss to tell you to watch what PRICE does at psycho 0.9300 and 0.9400

Seems to me like you have fallen into the trap of top and bottom picking.

WAIT until you SEE an OPPORTUNITY and WAIT for that OPPORTUNITY to be CONFIRMED (PASR).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,820
  • Mar 20, 2010 10:59pm Mar 20, 2010 10:59pm
LOL - I think we said the same thing, except yours is in English; mine is in code. I am just afraid to admit that the monthly tells the whole story!

Perhaps a better way to say it - so what if one misses a reactionary move?? If the longer term charts do not support it, why do it? There will be another opportunity.
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