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  • #10,781
  • Edited 3:19pm Mar 19, 2010 9:25am | Edited 3:19pm
AUDUSD seems to have got to the top of its recent range channel. PA at 9240 should indicate whether the move will break UP or rebound back DOWN.

Weekly: is showing a doji at the moment indicating a weakening of momentum and a degree of price indecision.

Monthly: has failed to break the November high of 9400 for the fourth month in a row but the March candle, of course, has a week still to go so it might get there although it doesn't look likely on my chart.

If PA confirms a SH at current Resistance of 9240, I will go short below 9171 which is the low of the last blue candle, with a SL above 9240.

That will give a risk of 70 + 20 (10 below Low, and 10 above R 9240).

The SR line at 9150 is not a major support. First TP is 9000 giving a reasonable R:R. There is further possible TP at 8900 and then at 8640 if price continues down.
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  • #10,782
  • Mar 19, 2010 10:44am Mar 19, 2010 10:44am
No offence here Lotuselanman. PA can hardly be seen of all these lines.Do yourself a favour and get rid of most of them.Two or three lines are enough I think.But this is my opinion you can do whatever you like after all ..
  • #10,783
  • Mar 19, 2010 11:17am Mar 19, 2010 11:17am
Quoting kratun
No offence here Lotuselanman. PA can hardly be seen of all these lines.Do yourself a favour and get rid of most of them.Two or three lines are enough I think.But this is my opinion you can do whatever you like after all ..

No offence taken.

I have taken away some SR lines, the Fibs and the DSRI also.

This chart is somewhat later than the other one so price has moved on. It looks as if the top TL marking the top of the channel and R at 9240 was rejected, so my short trade will have been triggered.

I hope this one looks clearer for you.
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  • #10,784
  • Mar 19, 2010 11:23am Mar 19, 2010 11:23am
Quoting Lotuselanman
No offence taken.

I have taken away some SR lines, the Fibs and the DSRI also.

This chart is somewhat later than the other one so price has moved on. It looks as if the top TL marking the top of the channel and R at 9240 was rejected, so my short trade will have been triggered.

I hope this one looks clearer for you.
Thanks mate
  • #10,785
  • Mar 19, 2010 1:40pm Mar 19, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
No offence taken.

I have taken away some SR lines, the Fibs and the DSRI also.

This chart is somewhat later than the other one so price has moved on. It looks as if the top TL marking the top of the channel and R at 9240 was rejected, so my short trade will have been triggered.

I hope this one looks clearer for you.
Hi Lotuselanman,

Good trade, here is my analysis: Weekly trend is still up, so shorting is counter trend trade so I would absolutely want all the odds on my side. I would wait and see what PA at .9300 level. The momemtum may push price to .9300 you know Big boys like to play.
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  • #10,786
  • Mar 19, 2010 1:41pm Mar 19, 2010 1:41pm
You gotta love the "infomercial" mainstream media here in Canada. "the loonie soars on inflation data". They fail to mention that the move earlier this morning has RETRACED! Dumb morans . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #10,787
  • Mar 19, 2010 5:01pm Mar 19, 2010 5:01pm
Quoting LarryK
On my chart attached price closed on 26 feb at 8927 and opened on the sunday evening at 8987(see small crosses at the relevant points), that gap was only closed yesterday.
Hi Larry:

Weekend gaps are notoriously illusionary. You can't compare Friday's close to Sunday's open and determine a gap. That gap is a "psuedo" gap created by your broker turning off their server on Friday and restarting it on Sunday. There is some weekend trading that is not captured by your broker. Hence, everyone's "psuedo" gap can look very different.

The only way to determine a weekend gap is to find a broker that runs their server continuously over the weekend.

Regards,
JS
  • #10,788
  • Mar 19, 2010 5:10pm Mar 19, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting golfer27
I recently downloaded this, and think it has some good info. There are also sets of questions after each chapter, to test as to whether you've understood the information (answers are provided to check against)

Google it, it's available as a free download. If you have any problems finding it, PM me and i will give you the address.
Hi Golfer
i'm a junior member and cannot PM, but i would like to have a read of it. Could you help.
  • #10,789
  • Mar 19, 2010 6:47pm Mar 19, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Lotuselanman,

Good trade, here is my analysis: Weekly trend is still up, so shorting is counter trend trade so I would absolutely want all the odds on my side. I would wait and see what PA at .9300 level. The momemtum may push price to .9300 you know Big boys like to play.
Not sure about the 'Good trade' comment. Time will tell on that one! Thanks for taking the trouble to give your comments.

Weekly trend is still up, so shorting is a counter trend trade

The Weekly chart is interesting with the last SH on 15th Nov with a BEEB/OB, since then SHs have been lower and so have SLs. I am treating the recent 4 months as ranging with the tops progressively lower. This weeks candle is a doji at close showing that the move up is weakening which is what one might expect approaching the top of a range.

The Monthly with a week to go, is sitting at the top of the range TL. Will it break through??

My short proposal is based on the continuation of this pattern of LHs and LLs and that price is showing an inclination to travel south at the R of 9240. Even if the Stop was moved to 9300ish, the R:R would be good as there is so far for price to travel down to the bottom of the range channel.
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  • #10,790
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:23pm Mar 19, 2010 8:23pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Not sure about the 'Good trade' comment. Time will tell on that one! Thanks for taking the trouble to give your comments.

Weekly trend is still up, so shorting is a counter trend trade

The Weekly chart is interesting with the last SH on 15th Nov with a BEEB/OB, since then SHs have been lower and so have SLs. I am treating the recent 4 months as ranging with the tops progressively lower. This weeks candle is a doji at close showing that the move up is weakening which is what one might expect approaching the...
That one is perhaps the most interesting pair on the board. The argument is well framed. The longer term charts cannot be ingnored unless one is banking on the S/R levels and stopped above. The counter argument is well versed but requires a daily trigger at this point to let one feel good about holding (or entering for those asleep at the wheel). Actions must come from the daily, though there is effective argument on both sides. Perhaps one of those cases for the fundamental view to influence things.
  • #10,791
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:51pm Mar 19, 2010 8:51pm

Earlier this week I was on a plane sat across the aisle from a Chinese guy who was reading some trading magazine. He studied each price chart and I watched him use his finger to follow price up and down the chart. As he stopped at each swing high and low he would say “Ah so”. He would then put the magazine down and talk to himself and after 15 minutes or so go through the same routine again as if he was testing himself.

After watching him do this for a couple of hours I leaned over and said to him that it isn’t as easy as it looks, is it? He said “Oh no, it very easy”. Acting dumb I said I thought most people lost money trading but he said “Maybe, but for me it very easy”. Intrigued, I asked him why it was easy for him.

He showed me a price chart in the magazine and started at the bottom left swing low and said “Buy here”. He then went to the swing high and said “Sell here” and proceeded to do this all the way up to the top.

I told him anyone can do that looking at what has happened with price in the past, the trick is being able to do it in real time. He said “It still very easy”.

Taking the bait I asked him what he would do at the top. He moved his finger down to the previous swing low and said, “ Easy, I buy here so up there, I sell”.

Still trying to tell him that it had already happened, I asked him what he would do at the end of the chart, the extreme right. He moved his finger to the last swing high and said “Easy, I sell there so I buy here”.

Now really intrigued I said that the left side of the chart looked like prices were going higher all the time but then they reached a top where the prices started going down and how would he know what to do.

He said, “It very easy”. He then put his arm in the middle of the price chart dividing the uptrend from the downtrend. He pointed to the left side (up trend) and said, “This climbing mountain” and pointing to the right side (down trend) said, “This falling down mountain”.

Again I told him it was easy to see as it had already happened and how would he know what to do at the top. He said, “I just do same thing, buy, sell, buy, sell”.

I told him that if he bought at the top, he would lose money but he said, “No, instead of buy, sell, buy, sell, I sell, buy, sell, buy”.

No longer needing to act dumb, I told him I didn’t understand. He said, “You not understand, I just found God gave me very special talent to understand trading”.

Still trying to understand, I asked how he knew on the left side of the chart he had to “climb the mountain” and on the right side “fall down the mountain”.

He said, “It very easy for me but you not understand I try explain. Climbing mountain, more buy, less sell. Falling down mountain, more sell, less buy.”

{{This, in very simple terms, is impulse wave (more buy) and corrective wave (less sell) and vice versa for down trend.}}

I asked how he knew this and he said, “I just found I have very special talent for this”. Apparently he had never seen anything about trading before and “something made him buy trading magazine in book store”.

At this point, a very eerie feeling came across me. Was I sat across from the reincarnation of Dr. Joe, or R.N. Elliott, or W.D. Gann or Charles Dow?

Knowing that many Chinese believe in the after life, I jokingly asked if he was a Chief Trader in his former life. He said, “Oh no, I was ant in past life and not live long but I was “good” ant and this is God’s reward”.

I said he must be very wealthy from trading; he said, “I never trade, I not know I know this but when I get back I get $50,000 from family and friends and make million dollar for them”.

I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry.

As we were waiting to get off the plane I wished him luck with his trading, he said, “I not need luck, I have very special talent to make money trading”.

Then finally I said maybe we will meet again on another flight and he will tell me about his trading, he said, “Next time I fly, will be on private jet”.

Not knowing whether I had met an idiot or the next George Soros, I couldn’t get what he told me out of my mind and since then, have been waking up in the early hours of the morning with everything he told me on my mind.

I really thought I had brought my trading down to its simplest form but after this I’m not sure anymore.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,792
  • Mar 19, 2010 10:00pm Mar 19, 2010 10:00pm
This just in from one of the EW threads here on FF:

Post # 1112
Mar 19, 2010 9:12am (10 hr ago)

Member




Quote:


Gold -- got my A$$ handed to me last year and have never traded it since.. Any tips???

Cool-- I almost made up for GU loss last night (which was more than 15% of my acct))-- just came in from outside-- I have two sells still open from 1.5129 (3 others closed at 1.5000) and my first buy limit hit at at 1.5000...

Should I sell or should I buy...


Where's that dartboard again?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,793
  • Mar 19, 2010 10:18pm Mar 19, 2010 10:18pm
It gets sillier!

Post # 540

Hello,

I’m short on the USD/CAD.

I think it will go down sooner or later.

It will also go up “sooner or later”

My car will run out of gas “sooner or later”

Don’t these idiots know that trading is all about PRICE and TIME?

Oh well, we can’t save them all – we need someone to provide liquidity.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,794
  • Mar 19, 2010 10:36pm Mar 19, 2010 10:36pm
Just thought a butchers on the EW threads might provide some insight into the surf of the majors. As always, the contradictions on there confuses me even more and brings back those horrible memories of the 90s.

Well at least we know the Big Boss and Boss don't lie whatever wave they are surfing!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,795
  • Mar 19, 2010 10:51pm Mar 19, 2010 10:51pm
Quoting strat
Earlier this week I was on a plane sat across the aisle from a Chinese guy who was reading some trading magazine. He studied each price chart and I watched him use his finger to follow price up and down the chart. As he stopped at each swing high and low he would say “Ah so”. He would then put the magazine down and talk to himself and after 15 minutes or so go through the same routine again as if he was testing himself....



Hi strat, just want to say you have a wonderful thread. Most people really never learn until they are smacked in the face. I like your approach.

.... And I'm still laughing because that guy should end up with blown accountS as a newbie with that sort of confidence & no experience!!!!!
  • #10,796
  • Mar 19, 2010 10:57pm Mar 19, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting strat

Oh well, we can’t save them all – we need someone to provide liquidity.
Yep
  • #10,797
  • Mar 19, 2010 11:57pm Mar 19, 2010 11:57pm
Just some Big Boss ramblings before I quit for the week:

AUDCAD
Boss doji at support – wait for breakout of Boss triangle

AUDNZD
Big Boss shooting star at R on my data.

AUDUSD
One last hurrah for Big Boss to R although the Boss not too committed.
But is the move from Feb 12 the beginning of Wave 5? – no-one knows until we get a close above 0.9405

CADJPY
Boss at the top of the range

EURGBP
Just stuck in that Big Boss triangle for me.

EURJPY
Big Boss looks like she has had enough of that down move but has she got what it takes to turn it around? The Boss and Worker don’t think so and are on a day trip to 120.50.

EURUSD
Big Boss exactly at 61.8% retrace at dropped support. The last swing retrace made it to 78.6% - will history repeat itself? Watch for where PRICE closes at this current level of support.

GBPCHF
Big Boss on a tour of 1.5600 unless the SNB runs out of gas (“sooner or later”)

GBPUSD
Big Boss looks to me like she is on the 1.39 tour bus

USDCAD
Big Boss looks to me like she is on the 0.98 tour bus

USDCHF
Big Boss torn between two lovers (Bonnie Tyler) – (trapped between R & S)

USDJPY
Big Boss bouncing off S and 50% fib – but has she got a tiger in her tank to close above 93.76? Wake me up when she does!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,798
  • Mar 20, 2010 2:34am Mar 20, 2010 2:34am
Hi Strat,

First of all i want to say thanx to you for all the efforts and knowledge that you have put in here in this wonderful thread for people like me who are standing on the shore of this beautiful sea of Forex wanting to swim and surf but don't know how to save themselve from those bloody Sharks there.

Just a little about me. i am involved in FX for last 4 months. first 2 months were absolute rubbish. didn't know any thing real and yet open a micro 2 months ago that was blown away in just 3 days . Extreme frustration. But i took that as a challange and started putting my real efforts to learn things. However things were quite messy until i came across your thread on Wednesday, March 17. Last 3 days have just changed my horizon. i am thinking the other way now and feeling confidently that i can make this, winning the challange against myelf by myself.

Currently i am at page 65 and soon will be contributing here.

Looking forward for your guidence and all the other seniors here.

Have a nice weakend.


Khurram
  • #10,799
  • Mar 20, 2010 2:43am Mar 20, 2010 2:43am
classic,

Quoting strat
It gets sillier!

Post # 540

Hello,

I’m short on the USD/CAD.

I think it will go down sooner or later.

It will also go up “sooner or later”

My car will run out of gas “sooner or later”

Don’t these idiots know that trading is all about PRICE and TIME?

[font=Arial]Oh...
Annoying Precision
  • #10,800
  • Mar 20, 2010 4:17am Mar 20, 2010 4:17am
Quoting strat
Poor baby!

If words upset you this much you are not cut out for this business. It is a dog eat dog world where, if you aren't the predator, you end up being the prey!

You have to have a tough, thick skin with nerves of steel for this business. If my style offends you then you may be better off taking up knitting.
Love this thread.

Not sure if you do this on purpose Strat(think you probly do tho).

IMHO there are 2 things we need to master in trading - both covered at length by Strat.

1 - PASR
2 - Our Gremlins.

I've found PASR relatively easy to understand(trading it is the hard part LOL).
Its my Gremlins I had trouble with and put downs like this from Strat helped me to realise that I needed to 'shape up or ship out'.

Trading is hard(VERY hard) and to survive we need to be mentally tough. If someone gets upset by a few words from Strat maybe they aren't tough enough yet.

Thanks Strat - you're a grumpy old git - but I like you.
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