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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #5,601
  • Mar 19, 2010 3:05am Mar 19, 2010 3:05am
Quoting Custos
what do you mean by ALLOW to happen? Currency markets are driven by supply and demand, not by somebody saying yes it is allowed to go down or up. Maybe in the short-term huge banks can control one of the currencies, but after a week it will go where supply and demand says it has to go.
Allow to happen in the sense that BOJ or CHF bank intervene in the market...which, well, can cause massive moves that will take out SL. In that case, these BANKS are essentially saying: yes/no, to whether a currency appreciates or depreciates. When the EURO was first released, it was rapidly depreciating against the dollar...truck loads of cash from the US and EUR was brought to bear on the problem of the depreciating EURO to prop it up. They succeeded.

Also, another good case is the CHINESE government and their currency: the renminbi. The chinese exhibits very strong monetary control policy, leaving their yuan to fluctuates only within narrow bands, severely preventing from appreciating against the dollar....because appreciating yuan will delimit their exporting power. That is definitely not a result of supply and demand, it is a result of artificial market ceiling created by the chinese government.

True, we do have exceptions like the case of SOROs that broke the bank of england....
  • #5,602
  • Mar 19, 2010 3:10am Mar 19, 2010 3:10am
Quoting Custos
haha, I actually took another short at 1.516. First target reached. Stop to b/e.
You mean short at 1.5260, correct? rather than 1.5160. Anyways, took another LONG entry at 1.5170. In fact, that is where i should have placed my LONG entry. Let see how it goes.
  • #5,603
  • Mar 19, 2010 3:10am Mar 19, 2010 3:10am
Quoting Custos
haha, I actually took another short at 1.516. First target reached. Stop to b/e.
emm.. no trade for me right now on GU.. waiting pullback @ 1.5200 area. Currently i'm still holding short on GJ, GCHF from the top will add another short soon. Also still short on EJ,EU & UCAD.
Trend + S&R + RR =
  • #5,604
  • Mar 19, 2010 3:26am Mar 19, 2010 3:26am
Quoting EntropyLad
Allow to happen in the sense that BOJ or CHF bank intervene in the market...which, well, can cause massive moves that will take out SL. In that case, these BANKS are essentially saying: yes/no, to whether a currency appreciates or depreciates. When the EURO was first released, it was rapidly depreciating against the dollar...truck loads of cash from the US and EUR was brought to bear on the problem of the depreciating EURO to prop it up. They succeeded.

Also, another good case is the CHINESE government and their currency: the renminbi. The chinese...
hm, okay, well I have a different opinion about those things. Yes, banks can intervene, but they can't control currencies. As you said boj tried it several times, but has never succeeded in controlling its currency.

Now your example of the rmb. For me that's like comparing apples with peaches. eur, cad, usd, jpy... are all free floating currencies, rmb is not a free floating currency. The rmb is controlled by the government. The free floating currencies are controlled by supply and demand.

As for Soros I don't know how that exactly went, so I can't comment on that.

Just my 2 cents.
  • #5,605
  • Mar 19, 2010 3:27am Mar 19, 2010 3:27am
Quoting EntropyLad
You mean short at 1.5260, correct? rather than 1.5160. Anyways, took another LONG entry at 1.5170. In fact, that is where i should have placed my LONG entry. Let see how it goes.
yeah I meant 1.5260
  • #5,606
  • Mar 19, 2010 3:30am Mar 19, 2010 3:30am
Quoting yunero
emm.. no trade for me right now on GU.. waiting pullback @ 1.5200 area. Currently i'm still holding short on GJ, GCHF from the top will add another short soon. Also still short on EJ,EU & UCAD.
I also went short now on cad/chf when I saw the huge momentum spike to the downside, shorted at a retest of 1.0375. First target reached, stop b/e
  • #5,607
  • Mar 19, 2010 3:42am Mar 19, 2010 3:42am
Quoting EntropyLad
You mean short at 1.5260, correct? rather than 1.5160. Anyways, took another LONG entry at 1.5170. In fact, that is where i should have placed my LONG entry. Let see how it goes.
Brave guy, after such a momentum down I wouldn't have dared to go long on that pair.
  • #5,608
  • Mar 19, 2010 6:43am Mar 19, 2010 6:43am
Quoting EntropyLad
Did you get in at the B-P-C of GBP/CHF bottom trendline?
It was there but I wasnt, I never set the darn alarm and missed the trade. It only gave a 1 bar pullback, and right after that 1 bar pullback it crossed through the RN, which would have been enough for me to enter the trade. I missed a coupile of good trades because I forgot to set the alerts this week. Trying to do too many things here at once I think.

--NM
  • #5,609
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:36am Mar 19, 2010 8:36am
Ha! that was fun! the danUk style SL(red dotted line on the chart) hasnt being triggered yet...it is at 1.5089. Well, we will see how the rest of friday goes and next week.


Quoting EntropyLad
You mean short at 1.5260, correct? rather than 1.5160. Anyways, took another LONG entry at 1.5170. In fact, that is where i should have placed my LONG entry. Let see how it goes.
Quoting EntropyLad
I am going to be contrarian here: i will go long GBP/USD at 1.5190. Move to B/E at + 40 pips. SELL 1/2 there too at 1.5230. Final PT = 1.5340.

let see how this goes, shall we?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268985224
  • #5,610
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:42am Mar 19, 2010 8:42am
Well, indeed, this was most fun. The first PT already met and closed out. The rest of the cargo already closed out at 1.0069. Because i am not sure of USD/CAD fundamentally appreciating against the USD to near parity or below.

Quoting EntropyLad
Just placed a DanUK short entry for USD/CAD H4 at 1.0169.
SL = 1.0220
1st PT = 1.0130...maybe...1.0140, just to be on the safer side.

let us see how this goes.

Chart attached:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268971201
  • #5,611
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:43am Mar 19, 2010 8:43am
hello guys
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  • #5,612
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:50am Mar 19, 2010 8:50am
Quoting Custos
hm, okay, well I have a different opinion about those things. Yes, banks can intervene, but they can't control currencies. As you said boj tried it several times, but has never succeeded in controlling its currency.

Now your example of the rmb. For me that's like comparing apples with peaches. eur, cad, usd, jpy... are all free floating currencies, rmb is not a free floating currency. The rmb is controlled by the government. The free floating currencies are controlled by supply and demand.

As for Soros I don't know how that exactly went, so I...
Maybe i am just too suspicious, but the use of rates is an attempt to control the currency, is it not? Yes, those are free-floating currency, but interest rates does have decisive effect on currency appreciation and depreciation despite calling them "free-floating". So, why are these western nations pointing fingers at china as being too controlling of renminbi? Everybody controls their darn currency.

Sorry man, i have lost faith in "supply and demand". It exits, i believe, but the extent to which it exist is exaggerated in my opinion.
  • #5,613
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:07am Mar 19, 2010 9:07am
MY EU Trade is still alive, not where I thought it would be at this time but still hanging in there, sitting around 100 pips right now.

--NM
  • #5,614
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:11am Mar 19, 2010 9:11am
I'm looking for bpc trade on AUD/USD...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Yunero_ Mar. 19, 2010_ 22.10.gif Size: 14 KB
Trend + S&R + RR =
  • #5,615
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:11am Mar 19, 2010 9:11am
Quoting EntropyLad
Well, indeed, this was most fun. The first PT already met and closed out. The rest of the cargo already closed out at 1.0069. Because i am not sure of USD/CAD fundamentally appreciating against the USD to near parity or below.
Entropy
fabulous trade
my 2nd load close at 1.0070, i pip away
cheers
  • #5,616
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:18am Mar 19, 2010 9:18am
Well, i think the verdict is in on EUR/USD: the TC won against the S/R.

Okay, there was a solid + 40 pips bounce off the S/R...so, i guess, with good money management, you could have played it too and win. Since i am partial to TC, i will claim the TC won. Afterall, after the pullback in h4 after breaking the H4 trendline, it has shot +50 pips below the 1.3582. And, +50 > +40.

[quote=EntropyLad;3564574]Oh yes, i forgot to add. Go to eur/usd DAILY candlesticks and draw a bearish trendline down from the very top. It smacks those resistance zone that i pointed out: 1.3593, 1.3283, 1.3566....besides, there is the RN = 1.3550

It will be interesting to see.

P.S. Oh yes, let me add: the h4 BULLISH trendline i was talking about cut through at 1.3650 area. Seriously, this should be fun! who is going to win out? the S.R or the trendline? hahaha.

Tell me something i dont already suspect! When CUSTOS is too quiet...he is up to something![quote]

[quote=EntropyLad;3564465]Sorry, if this is a bit late...if you switch your META4 to LINE CHART...H4...you will see a cluster of S/R at 1.3593, 1.3583, and 1.3566.

I am indecisive. That area could prove solid(it is currently testing it now), but then, looking at candlesticks chart h4, you can clearly see the H4 slanted trendline, solidly broken, which generally means = TLC momentum. To be....or not to be...hmmm...or just flip a coin and go with bullish bounce trade off the S/R, or go with short trendline break trade...or safer: No trade at all.[quote]
  • #5,617
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:19am Mar 19, 2010 9:19am
Quoting NightMoves
MY EU Trade is still alive, not where I thought it would be at this time but still hanging in there, sitting around 100 pips right now.

--NM
Good work. Just read your post after posting my above post. Good work.
  • #5,618
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:22am Mar 19, 2010 9:22am
i am in for a quick few pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,619
  • Mar 19, 2010 9:24am Mar 19, 2010 9:24am
Quoting NightMoves
MY EU Trade is still alive, not where I thought it would be at this time but still hanging in there, sitting around 100 pips right now.

--NM
This more the profit target that I would expect from a "Trend Trading" system. I'm just getting back into FFactory after a hiatus (it was blocked from work!) The system I use now has a 50 pip S/L and 200 pip profit target. From the trades I've seen on my charts, this is certainly doable when a pair is trending. But there are plenty of pairs (look at the yen the last 10 days) that don't go anywhere for awhile. My objective is to only trade what's trending, and allow for periods of relative quiet.

I'm also seeing a good opportunity on the GBP/USD for a long...we reached a low of 4780 on March 1st and have been making new highs since then.

-Pidgeon
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #5,620
  • Edited 9:26am Mar 19, 2010 9:24am | Edited 9:26am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5516

I hope EU can make new low today..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Yunero_ Mar. 19, 2010_ 22.20.gif Size: 21 KB
Trend + S&R + RR =
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