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AUD/USD

  • #19,301
  • Mar 18, 2010 9:49am Mar 18, 2010 9:49am
Quoting MarcVUM
I understand. I'm thinking though that a long position at my TL with a tight SL will be profitable...which I've already taken. I suspect that A/U won't go down until the Fed raises rates or Jobs get created in the U.S. Just my opinion.
What about 2008? Fed had just lowered rates to null, and no jobs. Why is GBP and EUR losing ground daily, and could AUD just be lagging, like it did in 2008. Another opinion.
  • #19,302
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:15am Mar 18, 2010 10:15am
Quoting MarcVUM
Good Morning Saxon.
Oh, what's up? Sorry, I was on another screen. Anyone trading NZD/USD? It is following S&R perfectly today. AUD/USD is running sloppy on S&R.

How your trades been doing MarcVUM? What pairs you in right now?
  • #19,303
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:16am Mar 18, 2010 10:16am
Quoting Clouds
What about 2008? Fed had just lowered rates to null, and no jobs. Why is GBP and EUR losing ground daily, and could AUD just be lagging, like it did in 2008. Another opinion.
Could be. But GBP and EUR have major problems (they are worse off then the USA). On the other hand the land down under seems to be kicking everyone's butt.

Trust me I would love to short this thing all the way down to .60 but she just won't let up with the higher highs. It's like trying to keep up with a spouse that's on viagra.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,304
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:18am Mar 18, 2010 10:18am
Quoting Saxon
Oh, what's up? Sorry, I was on another screen. Anyone trading NZD/USD? It is following S&R perfectly today. AUD/USD is running sloppy on S&R.

How your trades been doing MarcVUM? What pairs you in right now?
I'll take a look at N/U right now. I've been trading A/U all morning. Should call it a day with more than enough pips in the bag but my wife wants a new house and I want another condo to rent out.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,305
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:28am Mar 18, 2010 10:28am
Quoting MarcVUM
I'll take a look at N/U right now. I've been trading A/U all morning. Should call it a day with more than enough pips in the bag but my wife wants a new house and I want another condo to rent out.
I tried to attach an image that shows the S&R. You can see that FIb Ret is spporting a lot of the S/R. I took it from the arrow down to 23.6 and thought about the bounce
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: some aud.jpg Size: 113 KB
  • #19,306
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:29am Mar 18, 2010 10:29am
Waiting for a signal to go long again. In a small downtrend right now
  • #19,307
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:33am Mar 18, 2010 10:33am
Quoting Saxon
I tried to attach an image that shows the S&R. You can see that FIb Ret is spporting a lot of the S/R. I took it from the arrow down to 23.6 and thought about the bounce
Hmm....I'm looking at the H1 too and I agree that about 1 1/2hrs ago would have been an entry. Right now I'm not too comfortable going long on it even though it's above all of my MA's. But, the bollinger band on it looks like she is about to lift her top!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,308
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:35am Mar 18, 2010 10:35am
Quoting MarcVUM
Hmm....I'm looking at the H1 too and I agree that about 1 1/2hrs ago would have been an entry. Right now I'm not too comfortable going long on it even though it's above all of my MA's. But, the bollinger band on it looks like she is about to lift her top!
Oh, i'm out of the market right now, that was just an earlier trade. Just showing that NZD is respecting S/R like a brick wall. I don't know where the market is headed right now. Those white arrows aren't meant to be predictive in any way
  • #19,309
  • Mar 18, 2010 10:49am Mar 18, 2010 10:49am
Quoting MarcVUM
Could be. But GBP and EUR have major problems (they are worse off then the USA). On the other hand the land down under seems to be kicking everyone's butt.

Trust me I would love to short this thing all the way down to .60 but she just won't let up with the higher highs. It's like trying to keep up with a spouse that's on viagra.
Take a look back in 2008 again, CAD and AUD were the last to fall, but they did. BTW,, AU is making lower highs and lower lows on weekly, since November, when EU kick started usd bulls
  • #19,310
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:06am Mar 18, 2010 11:06am
Important question to those who trade professionally...

how do u manage ur taxes on this income?

how do u report it?

by the way im still short on AUD/USD
  • #19,311
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:10am Mar 18, 2010 11:10am
Quoting kourtney
Important question to those who trade professionally...

how do u manage ur taxes on this income?

how do u report it?

by the way im still short on AUD/USD
your FCM (FXMC) should have provided you with I think a W9 to fill out when you signed with them They sould provide you with the tax stuff. You can also elect to make quarterly contributions if you would rather
  • #19,312
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:11am Mar 18, 2010 11:11am
Quoting kourtney
Important question to those who trade professionally...

how do u manage ur taxes on this income?

how do u report it?

by the way im still short on AUD/USD

That's a really good question. I am curious as well how everyone else is reporting it. I've been told that you can report it as ordinary income and others say that you have to report it the same as stocks/options.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,313
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:14am Mar 18, 2010 11:14am
Quoting MarcVUM
That's a really good question. I am curious as well how everyone else is reporting it. I've been told that you can report it as ordinary income and others say that you have to report it the same as stocks/options.
Foud this http://www.smartmoney.com/personal-f...531/?hpadref=1

I do it as a business not for myself so I don't know exactly
  • #19,314
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:16am Mar 18, 2010 11:16am
Quoting Saxon
Foud this http://www.smartmoney.com/personal-f...531/?hpadref=1

I do it as a business not for myself so I don't know exactly
Or look at line item 7 on this
http://www.daytradingcoach.com/daytr...ntaxfiling.htm
  • #19,315
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:24am Mar 18, 2010 11:24am
Quoting Saxon
Or look at line item 7 on this
http://www.daytradingcoach.com/daytr...ntaxfiling.htm
Good info. #7 says exactly what I've heard of. I've always been a stock/option trader/investor so I've had to report all of my trades on Schedule D. It would be crazy to do the same with forex.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,316
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:32am Mar 18, 2010 11:32am
is there a workable relationship on day to day basis between commodity prices and this pair?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,317
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:40am Mar 18, 2010 11:40am
Quoting USD-Bear
is there a workable relationship on day to day basis between commodity prices and this pair?
I think it's pretty lagged, some might disagree. I use GSCI with NZD. I don't get into it too much. I'll try to get you a correlation table and a lagged correlation.
  • #19,318
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:44am Mar 18, 2010 11:44am
Hi I would love a correlation table also..
thanks very much and to poster Bear I am sure you know that this pair is very sensitive to Gold and also the news more so than other pairs..
Thanks
Dean


Quoting Saxon
I think it's pretty lagged, some might disagree. I use GSCI with NZD. I don't get into it too much. I'll try to get you a correlation table and a lagged correlation.
  • #19,319
  • Mar 18, 2010 11:48am Mar 18, 2010 11:48am
Quoting dean walker
Hi I would love a correlation table also..
thanks very much and to poster Bear I am sure you know that this pair is very sensitive to Gold and also the news more so than other pairs..
Thanks
Dean
It might take a min. I gotta fire up GRETL and remember how to program that beast
  • #19,320
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:02pm Mar 18, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting Saxon
It might take a min. I gotta fire up GRETL and remember how to program that beast
While I work on that, here is some stuff I just found on the net:

Going for Gold
As the world's third-largest producer of gold, the Australian dollar had an 84% positive correlation with the precious metal between 1999 and 2008. Generally speaking, this means that when gold prices rise, the Australian dollar appreciates as well. The proximity of New Zealand to Australia makes Australia a preferred destination for exporting New Zealand goods. Therefore, the health of New Zealand's economy is closely tied to the health of the Australian economy, which explains why the NZD/USD and the AUD/USD have had a 96% positive correlation over the same time period. The correlation of the NZD/USD with gold is slightly less than that of the Australia dollar but is still strong at 78%.
Attached Image
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