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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #801
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:49am Mar 18, 2010 2:49am
Period of consolidation/ indecision, expect breaks of lows/highs before reversal...my 2 cents
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Click to Enlarge Name: euro 4 highs&lows.JPG Size: 57 KB
Biggest joker
  • #802
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:52am Mar 18, 2010 2:52am
ummm...anticipate, not expect, lol
Biggest joker
  • #803
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:57am Mar 18, 2010 2:57am
Quoting hanover
In the meantime, I'll plod on with my (largely) TA based method.
It's all you need, everything is on the chart and actual price can't lie, the rest (including the fluff!) is ambiguous and discretionary and open to personal interpretation. There is no reliable order flow information in this market, only vaguely indicative from other related markets, and guessing the motives of players before/during/after the event is nothing more than pure speculation, again very discretionary because they'll only let you know what they want you to know, that's the nature of the game. Retail traders are at a distinct disadvantage as far as tradeable information which can be exploited goes, the only reliable information we have is price, both past and present, which is ample enough to make trading decisions based on probability.

As for fundamentals, leave the professionals to analyse for you, in context. Rarely are fundamental events and data isolated, they need to be taken in context of the broader picture and market sentiment.
  • #804
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:59am Mar 18, 2010 2:59am
Quoting baron193
Period of consolidation/ indecision, expect breaks of lows/highs before reversal...my 2 cents
Attachment
C'mon man, our page/chart attatchment ratio is so low..I don't think we are ready for the charts quite yet. But...The 3650 level did produce heavy buy flow last time price was there (I see you drew a line there). As price has been falling over the last couple hours, there has been very little buy interest (at any level). I have a strong eye on that level. I'm not going to get too much into this stuff yet, if ever, but IF buyers come in, and I can verify this, I'd consider this an entry zone with little risk of DD. It all depends on a presense or lack of strong buyers.
  • #805
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:13am Mar 18, 2010 3:13am
Quoting Scotty B
C'mon man, our page/chart attatchment ratio is so low..I don't think we are ready for the charts quite yet. But...The 3650 level did produce heavy buy flow last time price was there (I see you drew a line there). As price has been falling over the last couple hours, there has been very little buy interest (at any level). I have a strong eye on that level. I'm not going to get too much into this stuff yet, if ever, but IF buyers come in, and I can verify this, I'd consider this an entry zone with little risk of DD. It all depends on a presense or...
Oops!! sorry, i forgot to put my hand up first and ask permision to post a chart, i'm just the little guy right down the back of the class, didn't think you'd see my hand down there.
I'll just keep quiet ok?
The line you saw was just the current bid price.
Biggest joker
  • #806
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:22am Mar 18, 2010 3:22am
Quoting pipmutt
It's all you need, everything is on the chart and actual price can't lie, the rest (including the fluff!) is ambiguous and discretionary and open to personal interpretation. There is no reliable order flow information in this market, only vaguely indicative from other related markets, and guessing the motives of players before/during/after the event is nothing more than pure speculation, again very discretionary because they'll only let you know what they want you to know, that's the nature of the game. Retail traders are at a distinct disadvantage...
I want to humbly ask all of you not to engage pip in any more debates that take up page after page of this thread. I can easily see how this post will start more. He is certainly entitled to his opinions, but unless he can back up the absolute statments he is making, then whats the point? Lets let the evolution of this thread be the judge. Who knows, maybe he already has it all figured out and he's right, and he's taking time away from his profitable TA based trading to come save us all. If thats the case pip, then thank you, but if not, then just relax and be open to other possibilities. I personally will not respond to another post of this nature.
  • #807
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:24am Mar 18, 2010 3:24am
Quoting baron193
Oops!! sorry, i forgot to put my hand up first and ask permision to post a chart, i'm just the little guy right down the back of the class, didn't think you'd see my hand down there.
I'll just keep quiet ok?
The line you saw was just the current bid price.
I was half kidding, I'm just trying to keep us off the slippery slope of system thinking. Lets use the charts very carefully and let critical thinking be our guide.

Edit..The line I was talking about was the red line highlighting the 3650ish area. And I'm certainly not telling you to be quiet. It's all good man.
  • #808
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:33am Mar 18, 2010 3:33am
Sure no problem, but what i posted is not a system, i believe it is a graphic display of a lot of what you have been talking about.
If you wanted a line, look at 725, one of the best.
Biggest joker
  • #809
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:44am Mar 18, 2010 3:44am
Quoting Scotty B
He is certainly entitled to his opinions, but unless he can back up the absolute statments he is making, then whats the point?
There's nothing which needs backing up, it's logical common sense and fact. If there is any part of that post you don't agree with then explain why, but something tells me you can't support your opinions and blanket objections with reason or logic, they're all just conjecture.

If you have the strength of your convictions then you'll welcome them being challenged, if you don't then it's obviously more comfortable for you to try and sweep pertinent observations under the carpet and carry on in blissful ignorance.

It makes not one iota of difference to me whether you debate these issues or whether you ignore them, but seeing as you started a thread in a public forum it's not unreasonable to assume you expected replies, did you really expect everyone to agree with your approach and opinions unopposed and without question?
  • #810
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:54am Mar 18, 2010 3:54am
hello guys,

Taking in consideration how price behave on fiber around .3800 and what Darkstar have said I found it really helfpful,no one have notice this?
He sayed that he conclude that there is a option bariera at .3800 after he notice the price behavior around that zone, so he don't really need any extra information for making the puzzle complete. One can take all he needs only from his charts,is that true?

Price was rejected at .3795,and usually on round number price go through it by some pips befor it reverse.

Now if we look at USD/CHF we may notice that the low from yestarday is at 1.0506 (big round number 1.0500) can we conclunde that by that rejection is there a barrier option.And the defenders are trying to keep the price away to protect their own interest.

Don't forget that this big round number have the tendency to cluster big orders increasing the likelihood that trends reverse at such levels, and ussully can be hidden huge barrier options.

feel free to add notes and correct me if I'm wrong

all the best!!
  • #811
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:09am Mar 18, 2010 4:09am
Quoting triger88990
usually on round number price go through it by some pips befor it reverse.
That's exactly what happened isn't it, the break above 1.38 then a sell off.
  • #812
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:17am Mar 18, 2010 4:17am
Quoting pipmutt
That's exactly what happened isn't it, the break above 1.38 then a sell off.

yes it did, but it took some time, befor it was taken out firstly we had a first rejection around .3795 and the defenders it appears that they won the battle,that's what I'm trying to point out.

And now I'm trying to figure out if we can take advantage of it by taking a position so we can liquidate in to the stops below 1.0500

all the best!!
  • #813
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:19am Mar 18, 2010 4:19am
Quoting pipmutt
It's all you need, everything is on the chart and actual price can't lie, the rest (including the fluff!) is ambiguous and discretionary and open to personal interpretation. There is no reliable order flow information in this market, only vaguely indicative from other related markets, and guessing the motives of players before/during/after the event is nothing more than pure speculation, again very discretionary because they'll only let you know what they want you to know, that's the nature of the game.
This all can be quantified if you have the will to do that.

For me and I guess most of the other people stuff in threads like this is important because after you have read comments from players who have been doing this for a long time (that's why market wizards and reminescences are such good books), you can go, find the data and quantify what they said. Some times it leads nowhere, sometimes it leads somewhere and that somewhere is so important that it's totally worth reading all the million other posts on the thread.

Don't expect experienced traders give you their edge just like that, it's plain silly.

Charts tell you something but they don't tell you everything, good luck trying to calculate IV for example from the charts.
  • #814
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:50am Mar 18, 2010 4:50am
Quoting Scotty B
C'mon man, our page/chart attatchment ratio is so low..I don't think we are ready for the charts quite yet. But...The 3650 level did produce heavy buy flow last time price was there (I see you drew a line there). As price has been falling over the last couple hours, there has been very little buy interest (at any level). I have a strong eye on that level. I'm not going to get too much into this stuff yet, if ever, but IF buyers come in, and I can verify this, I'd consider this an entry zone with little risk of DD. It all depends on a presense or...
Bad news about greece realy drove the market down,but for now 650 is holding in the same maner that 550 did last week. I think this time 650 is the last defense for buyers,so my stops for longs are already under that.we'll see what the news do,I think the market is pretty confused right now.
  • #815
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:59am Mar 18, 2010 4:59am
Quoting mikkom
you can go, find the data and quantify what they said. Some times it leads nowhere, sometimes it leads somewhere
Right, but if the basic premise is flawed or lacking then looking for data (which perhaps doesn't actually exist) to justify a theory could be really unscientific, isn't that kinda back to front, ie price moved so let's think up a reason why it did and find some data which supports our theory. I'm sure there are endless reasons that could be made to sound feasible, in fact a few pages back I offered an alternative view of price action around 1.38, there are probably as many convincing reasons for a move as there are traders (in fact I think someone said exactly that in this thread!).

I'm never opposed to new methods or approaches, no-one ever knows it all and no-one has the monopoly on trading strategies, which is what got me interested in this thread. Now I could just do like the majority and say wow this is great but I think it's more constructive to pick holes and challenge, if it can't stand up under scrutiny and challenge then it's probably not worth pursuing. Like I said before, if someone is confident their approach has merit then they shouldn't have any problem answering the skeptics, in fact they should welcome the challengers more than the back-patters! To reply to the observations I've made doesn't require anyone to divulge their edge (if in fact strategy is their edge), they're pretty basic!
  • #816
  • Mar 18, 2010 5:11am Mar 18, 2010 5:11am
Quoting pipmutt
Right, but if the basic premise is flawed or lacking then looking for data (which perhaps doesn't actually exist) to justify a theory could be really unscientific, isn't that kinda back to front, ie price moved so let's think up a reason why it did and find some data which supports our theory.
I'm not looking for reasons, I'm looking for reoccuring themes and the search landscape is so vast that you really need threads like this to reduce the size of the search.

And this is even when I'm able to use some more advanced methods that most people on this forum haven't even heard about like some specific variations of genetic programming, variations of hidden markov model and so on.

The same applies if you are "trying to get a feel" of trading because basically what quantifying is is just a faster way of proving something right or wrong than you can learn by instinct.
  • #817
  • Mar 18, 2010 5:15am Mar 18, 2010 5:15am
Quoting Scotty B
Yeah, I guess so.

But seriously, I was wondering specifically if the market was waiting for a verdict (planned date, time, ect.) on what the Euro zone was going to do to 'fix' things.
Latest news seem to indicate the EU is not much for helping Greece financially, at least for the moment. Furthermore, Greek PM has just pointed out that they would qualify for IMF aid if needed. In my personal experience, when a government goes from the first stage of strong denial to admitting a financial deal as a possibility, you can expect that they are already leaning strongly towards it.

I think that now that the market seems to have already discounted the possibility of EU aid, any news towards a deal with the IMF should be EUR bullish. That's my two cents as an economist, although I'll admit that it's mighty hard to anticipate fx moves in terms of traditional macro fundamental analysis these days.
  • #818
  • Edited 6:02am Mar 18, 2010 5:18am | Edited 6:02am
Quoting mikkom
I'm not looking for reasons, I'm looking for reoccuring themes and the search landscape is so vast that you really need threads like this to reduce the size of the search.
Did you find the most obvious recurring themes, chart patterns and price action, to be that unreliable then, or did you dismiss it simply because TA is what the majority use and we all know the majority lose?

As for reasons, if you can't identify a reason for a trade then you'd be making trades randomly (not to say that making random trades couldn't work of course! )

-
  • #819
  • Mar 18, 2010 5:25am Mar 18, 2010 5:25am
Quoting Tenshi28
Latest news seem to indicate the EU is not much for helping Greece financially, at least for the moment. Furthermore, Greek PM has just pointed out that they would qualify for IMF aid if needed. In my personal experience, when a government goes from the first stage of strong denial to admitting a financial deal as a possibility, you can expect that they are already leaning strongly towards it.

I think that now that the market seems to have already discounted the possibility of EU aid, any news towards a deal with the IMF should be EUR bullish....
I agree on most but I think some definite action on big boys part will be taken when this situation will be clear,now it's a waiting game. right now I am not so sure about 650 holding today,if it's not I am out of longs and will be looking to start building shorts. anyway,we'll see.
  • #820
  • Mar 18, 2010 6:06am Mar 18, 2010 6:06am
Quoting Darkstar
The first tip off was the fomc decision. The rejection of 3800 was the clue there was an option there. Once I knew it was there, then I started looking for clues that someone was hunting.

The volicity of price movement in what should have been an illiquid market was the tipoff at 12am. This is what the DOM watching experience will get you...
but in this example, you were using ONLY Oanda charts or not?

thanks for all info
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