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  • #781
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:31pm Mar 17, 2010 11:31pm
Quoting Marsh
I would also be interested in hearing how often a situation like last nights stop run comes about. You state you take high leverage positions, this is risky but is that necessary because of the low frequency of a high probability run like this? Or is that just because the success rate is so high you can afford a larger position.
Well seeing as DS really got his start daytrading and primarily by hunting stops I believe. Then I'd say they happen fairly frequently. At least I see them noted in IFR and other sources fairly often.
  • #782
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:33pm Mar 17, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting Marsh
I would also be interested in hearing how often a situation like last nights stop run comes about. You state you take high leverage positions, this is risky but is that necessary because of the low frequency of a high probability run like this? Or is that just because the success rate is so high you can afford a larger position.
The option barrier scenario happens a handful of times a week, but thats just one setup. Trades of a similar nature are happening constantly. Sometimes 2 or 3 battles (with different objectives and timelines) are occuring simulatiously on a single pair. Once you start analyzing the market from an orderflow perspective, all sorts of interesting things start jumping out at you.

When I was trading intraday I ran high leverage because the probabilities were so good. With an 80% win rate, why wouldn't I?
  • #783
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:07am Mar 18, 2010 12:07am
Just reading the IFR and it's interesting how they're talking about having their stops being tripped at 1.3819 during the Asian session yesterday. Essentially they're still looking to go long but thinks the shorts still have some power at the moment. I must say watching the action last night as it unfolds was pretty cool!
  • #784
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:11am Mar 18, 2010 12:11am
Quoting Darkstar
Its still all about where money will be moving IN THE FUTURE.
I'm tempted to think you're being tricky here, but I'm pretty sure what you're saying is very simple. To make a profit in trading you have to have a very good sense of what traders are going to do, or be forced to do, to move price away from where you entered. The point is to identify the motivating factors and to gain your position in the market before those future orders flow in. This might be to obvious for everybody here, but don't forget the title of the thread

Am I correct in keeping it this simple? Scotty > < Darkstar

If I'm correct, then I think it would be worthwhile to focus on entering the market safely via orderflow understanding and mechanics. If you give me the green light on the question above, I'd be happy to share some ideas and perspectives I have so we can disect my thinking even more.

I think it would also be very interesting to look some TA methods that get closest to the heart of orderflow. I have many ideas on this.

-----

EU

With the market so short, any real movement above this current range is going to shake a lot of the weak shorts out. That coupled with new money flowing in, prices will naturally rise. The question becomes, what kind of news/annoucment can convince the sidlined money to trickle back in? I'm not the best at following FA, does anybody know about dates for Greece announcments?
  • #785
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:16am Mar 18, 2010 12:16am
Quoting Scotty B
I'm tempted to think you're being tricky here, but I'm pretty sure what you're saying is very simple. To make a profit in trading you have to have a very good sense of what traders are going to do, or be forced to do, to move price away from where you entered. The point is to identify the motivating factors and to gain your position in the market before those future orders flow in. This might be to obvious for everybody here, but don't forget the title of the thread

Am I correct in keeping it this simple? Scotty > < Darkstar...
I'd just keep an eye on IFR. Less important are greek specific announcements and moreso what other EU leaders are saying about Greece. Because Greece isnt going to save itself I don't think from the way things look. At least thats my simple idea.
  • #786
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:19am Mar 18, 2010 12:19am
Nail on the head Scotty.. Nail on the head.
  • #787
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:33am Mar 18, 2010 12:33am
Quoting Scotty B
I'm......
.
The question becomes, what kind of news/annoucment can convince the sidelined money to trickle back in?..
perhaps more 'positive' news/statements/developments about the Greek issue.
  • #788
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:49am Mar 18, 2010 12:49am
Greece negotiating with the IMF can have huge implications for the EUR,
more so when there could be more "Greece's" out there...
Biggest joker
  • #789
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:49am Mar 18, 2010 12:49am
Quoting Darkstar
Nail on the head Scotty.. Nail on the head.
Alrighty then...

So as I've been thinking all along, after the motivating factors are known, the rest of the equation is risk managment i.e. method of entry. My question to you now DS is, do you want to get into the nitty gritty trade entry stuff here on the thread? To me, a lot of the stuff is further common sense and I have a feeling it could easily be differant for all of us. it's so common sense that I could see much of it getting dismissed or scoffed at. The beautifal thing though is that it's not ever going to be a system, it's just learning to take the pulse of the market; the real market.

I think understanding more of the macro fundamental drivers of moneyflow could end up letting some of these trades stay on as long as the market wants to carry them, instead of saying "oh my target is at x.xxxx because that's where my TA says to get out." I beleive this is exactly what goes on in the heads of most, if not all the great traders I've ever read about. They very simply know whats going on in the bigger picture.
  • #790
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:53am Mar 18, 2010 12:53am
Quoting supremeChaos
perhaps more 'positive' news/statements/developments about the Greek issue.
Yeah, I guess so.

But seriously, I was wondering specifically if the market was waiting for a verdict (planned date, time, ect.) on what the Euro zone was going to do to 'fix' things.
  • #791
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:57am Mar 18, 2010 12:57am
Quoting Scotty B
Alrighty then...

So as I've been thinking all along, after the motivating factors are known, the rest of the equation is risk managment i.e. method of entry. My question to you now DS is, do you want to get into the nitty gritty trade entry stuff here on the thread? To me, a lot of the stuff is further common sense and I have a feeling it could easily be differant for all of us. it's so common sense that I could see much of it getting dismissed or scoffed at. The beautifal thing though is that it's not ever going to be a system, it's just learning...
Idk if you have read it yet Scotty but I really recommend The Way of the Dollar.. I think DS recommends it too before getting too heavy into fundies.
  • #792
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:57am Mar 18, 2010 12:57am
Here's a link with some basic info on trading using expiring options as is being discussed. Maybe most people have seen it already. (Let me know if the link to a commercial site isn't kosher and I'll pull it.)

Looking forward to more GREAT stuff here. Man, I was about burnt out lately around here trying to find anything of substance and boom!

Thanks Scotty, Darkstar and all!
  • #793
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:57am Mar 18, 2010 12:57am
Quoting Scotty B
Yeah, I guess so.

But seriously, I was wondering specifically if the market was waiting for a verdict (planned date, time, ect.) on what the Euro zone was going to do to 'fix' things.
I love answering myself:

Sydney March 18. DJ carries headlines quoting a senior Greek official saying that the rift with Germany is deepening, the Greek PM may seek aid from the IMF during the Easter weekend and is in regular contact with the IMF chief, not hopeful of aid from the EU summit on March 25th and there will be no more bond sales until after the summit.
The knee jerk reaction to the comments was a dip to 1.3677 in the EUR/USD and a fall from 123.70 to 123.35 in the EUR/JPY. The comments will certainly give confidence to the EUR bears, especially after the failure above 1.3800 yesterday, as Greece continues to apply pressure on the EU for a specific bailout plan.

So we wait.
  • #794
  • Mar 18, 2010 1:00am Mar 18, 2010 1:00am
Quoting FXSurfer
Here's a link with some basic info on trading using expiring options as is being discussed. Maybe most people have seen it already. (Let me know if the link to a commercial site isn't kosher and I'll pull it.)

Looking forward to more GREAT stuff here. Man, I was about burnt out lately around here trying to find anything of substance and boom!

Thanks Scotty, Darkstar and all!
I found that a while back. It is interesting the effect plain ole vanillas have on the market.
  • #795
  • Mar 18, 2010 1:02am Mar 18, 2010 1:02am
Quoting Scotty B
Yeah, I guess so.
...
lol, I was expecting u'd say that.
(your question was too simple i didnt know how to answer it properly. im a useless idiot, lol.)

Quote
I was wondering specifically if the market was waiting for a verdict (planned date, time, ect.) on what the Euro zone was going to do to 'fix' things.
im an FA idiot, but yes i think so.
the market seem to always look for developments before they unbutton their shirt or as u said, convince the sidelined money to trickle back in.

i'll see if i can dig up some relevant news related to your question.
  • #796
  • Mar 18, 2010 1:06am Mar 18, 2010 1:06am
Quoting Scotty B
I love answering myself:
...
someone said (Einstein or someone) something like this:
when u are able to pose an intelligent question, the probability of finding the answer increases.
  • #797
  • Mar 18, 2010 1:10am Mar 18, 2010 1:10am
Common sense say's neither side is going to do anything too serious until there is a solid decision on Greece. This baby is gonna dance in this range until after the summit. You wouldn't think though that they'd let Greece slip into the abyss.

If anybody is interested, there's a really good economic podcast called "The World" produced by Public Radio International. The last three episodes have focused on Greece, giving a really good picture of the gravity of the situation. Check it out if you want.

http://www.theworld.org/tag/03172010/
  • #798
  • Mar 18, 2010 1:24am Mar 18, 2010 1:24am
54 pages... who knew obvious things would be so interesting
  • #799
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:32am Mar 18, 2010 2:32am
Quoting Scotty B
I think it would also be very interesting to look some TA methods that get closest to the heart of orderflow.
That would be of particular interest to me. Much of the material in this thread (stoploss hunts; weak shorts; IFR; options defense; etc) goes way over my head, but if orderflow concepts could be related to something that I understand (e.g. chart patterns, S/R levels, supply and demand, etc), then hopefully I might be in a position to learn something.

Great thread, Scotty, and my thanks to everybody who's contributed. I hope to be able to revisit it at some future point, when I'm knowledgeable enough to understand some of the concepts being talked about. In the meantime, I'll plod on with my (largely) TA based method.
  • #800
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:41am Mar 18, 2010 2:41am
Quoting Scotty B
I think it would also be very interesting to look some TA methods that get closest to the heart of orderflow. I have many ideas on this.
Check out this guys posts.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=58529
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
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