but as they say:" trade what you see not you expect"
Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
- #501
- Mar 17, 2010 11:04am Mar 17, 2010 11:04am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #502
- Mar 17, 2010 10:33pm Mar 17, 2010 10:33pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #503
- Mar 18, 2010 12:25am Mar 18, 2010 12:25am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,685 Posts
BTC Return This Year:
na
- #506
- Mar 18, 2010 5:47am Mar 18, 2010 5:47am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
Morning - Looks like a few traders got stopped out on that move lower in the Loonie yesterday. Shorts have increased as well so traders must be coming around to the idea that it might be heading to parity.
SSI: EURUSD Ratio Flips with Daily Shorts Diving 15%
Thursday, 18 Mar 2010 10:17 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Dail FX Research
FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:
Intraday Highlight:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.18 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 8.9% higher than yesterday and 13.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 14.9% lower than yesterday and 26.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.0% weaker than yesterday and 4.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.
SSI Details:
GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.32 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and 6.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 8.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.3% stronger than yesterday and 6.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.
GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.4% higher than yesterday and 8.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.3% lower than yesterday and 0.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.5% stronger than yesterday and 6.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.99 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.90 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.6% higher than yesterday and 4.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.1% lower than yesterday and 15.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.0% stronger than yesterday and 2.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.92 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.48 as 78% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.5% lower than yesterday and 4.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.8% higher than yesterday and 47.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.4% weaker than yesterday and 31.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.31 as nearly 77% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.25 as 76% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 0.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 11.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% weaker than yesterday and 55.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.73 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.09 as 68% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.8% higher than yesterday and 11.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.4% lower than yesterday and 1.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.2% weaker than yesterday and 0.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.
NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.42 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.35 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.1% lower than yesterday and 32.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 30.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.7% stronger than yesterday and 6.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
SSI: EURUSD Ratio Flips with Daily Shorts Diving 15%
Thursday, 18 Mar 2010 10:17 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Dail FX Research
FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:
Intraday Highlight:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.18 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 8.9% higher than yesterday and 13.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 14.9% lower than yesterday and 26.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.0% weaker than yesterday and 4.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.
SSI Details:
GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.32 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and 6.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 8.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.3% stronger than yesterday and 6.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.
GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.4% higher than yesterday and 8.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.3% lower than yesterday and 0.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.5% stronger than yesterday and 6.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.99 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.90 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.6% higher than yesterday and 4.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.1% lower than yesterday and 15.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.0% stronger than yesterday and 2.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.92 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.48 as 78% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.5% lower than yesterday and 4.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.8% higher than yesterday and 47.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.4% weaker than yesterday and 31.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.31 as nearly 77% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.25 as 76% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 0.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 11.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% weaker than yesterday and 55.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.73 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.09 as 68% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.8% higher than yesterday and 11.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.4% lower than yesterday and 1.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.2% weaker than yesterday and 0.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.
NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.42 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.35 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.1% lower than yesterday and 32.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 30.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.7% stronger than yesterday and 6.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
- #507
- Mar 18, 2010 11:52am Mar 18, 2010 11:52am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #508
- Mar 18, 2010 12:37pm Mar 18, 2010 12:37pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #510
- Mar 18, 2010 9:44pm Mar 18, 2010 9:44pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
hi guys
it was real surfing.
USDCHF 1440
+80
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/5f...1qhe_thumb.jpg
GOOD luck
- #512
- Mar 19, 2010 5:25am Mar 19, 2010 5:25am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
Weird night. The Loonie makes a move in the dead of the night and the A/U just sits there as usual. Looks like the green light has been given for parity on the Loonie as well.
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government is shifting its rhetoric on the Canadian dollar and playing down concerns about the currency’s gains in a bid to brace companies and consumers for parity with the U.S. dollar.
The comments signal officials may not try to resist the currency’s climb and want to get Canadians used to the notion of parity, marking a reversal from the previous three years when they repeatedly warned of risks posed by a quick appreciation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aLsZ7q0ykUU8
SSI: Retail Interest on USDCAD Slips Ahead of Canadian Inflation Report
Friday, 19 Mar 2010 09:58 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research
FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:
Intraday Highlight:
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.86 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.56 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.0% lower than yesterday and 8.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.1% lower than yesterday and 44.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.9% weaker than yesterday and 17.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
SSI Details:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.25 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 28.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday and 29.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 2.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.
GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.00 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.19 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.8% higher than yesterday and 11.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.0% lower than yesterday and 3.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.3% weaker than yesterday and 1.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.
GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.41 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.23 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.9% higher than yesterday and 28.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 1.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.6% stronger than yesterday and 12.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.77 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 9.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.3% higher than yesterday and 16.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.5% stronger than yesterday and 1.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.72 as nearly 73% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.03 as 75% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 5.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 13.1% higher than yesterday and 69.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.4% stronger than yesterday and 50.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.65 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.74 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.4% higher than yesterday and 4.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 12.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 2.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.
NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.50 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.83 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.5% higher than yesterday and 16.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.3% lower than yesterday and 40.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.0% stronger than yesterday and 12.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government is shifting its rhetoric on the Canadian dollar and playing down concerns about the currency’s gains in a bid to brace companies and consumers for parity with the U.S. dollar.
The comments signal officials may not try to resist the currency’s climb and want to get Canadians used to the notion of parity, marking a reversal from the previous three years when they repeatedly warned of risks posed by a quick appreciation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aLsZ7q0ykUU8
SSI: Retail Interest on USDCAD Slips Ahead of Canadian Inflation Report
Friday, 19 Mar 2010 09:58 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research
FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:
Intraday Highlight:
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.86 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.56 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.0% lower than yesterday and 8.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.1% lower than yesterday and 44.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.9% weaker than yesterday and 17.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
SSI Details:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.25 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 28.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday and 29.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 2.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.
GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.00 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.19 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.8% higher than yesterday and 11.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.0% lower than yesterday and 3.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.3% weaker than yesterday and 1.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.
GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.41 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.23 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.9% higher than yesterday and 28.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 1.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.6% stronger than yesterday and 12.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.77 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 9.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.3% higher than yesterday and 16.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.5% stronger than yesterday and 1.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.72 as nearly 73% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.03 as 75% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 5.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 13.1% higher than yesterday and 69.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.4% stronger than yesterday and 50.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.65 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.74 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.4% higher than yesterday and 4.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 12.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 2.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.
NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.50 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.83 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.5% higher than yesterday and 16.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.3% lower than yesterday and 40.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.0% stronger than yesterday and 12.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
- #514
- Mar 19, 2010 6:04am Mar 19, 2010 6:04am
- Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Trader | 7,674 Posts
Weird night. The Loonie makes a move in the dead of the night and the A/U just sits there as usual. Looks like the green light has been given for parity on the Loonie as well.
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government is shifting its rhetoric on the Canadian dollar and playing down concerns about the currency’s...
it's a tricky pair, in the short-term, parity or 1.06 is just as likely i guess
- #519
- Mar 19, 2010 7:01am Mar 19, 2010 7:01am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
Long this pair at your peril.
I just scored a hefty 70 pips in this pair.
no support until parity and if that goes, the next target is .97.
cheers
nice trade
- #520
- Mar 19, 2010 7:04am Mar 19, 2010 7:04am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
Nothing worth having is easy.