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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #5,481
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:29am Mar 17, 2010 9:29am
Quoting EntropyLad
Funny, i am planning to go short on USD/CHF. 1hour/15mins. chart attached. I will be interested in USD/CHF long at 1.0418 region. Oh yes, good work, yunero. Always impressive. Nice work too, shahroor, on your gbp/nzd trade.

1 HOUR SETUP CHART
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268834875


15MINS TRIGGER CHART
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268834875
i notice there are 3 options
1. go long on the retrace at 50%
2.wait for the retrace back to 61%
3. short on the H1 when the BPC occurs on M15

which option has the highest probability?
  • #5,482
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:34am Mar 17, 2010 9:34am
Quoting A 5
i notice there are 3 options
1. go long on the retrace at 50%
2.wait for the retrace back to 61%
3. short on the H1 when the BPC occurs on M15

which option has the highest probability?
What? i already drew exactly how i am going to trade this here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5476
I think that was clear.

Quoting shahroor
interesting to see you going short, why not wait for the long setup which might be safer IMO
good luck
Well, USD/CHF first PT met already. It didnt even give me the benefit of a pullback. This is truly annoying. That makes Five setups today, not a single one gave me a BPC. Not one. All just barreled away like an african gazelle on steriods.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268836397
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_14 Mar. 17 10.29.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #5,483
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:42am Mar 17, 2010 9:42am
Quoting EntropyLad
What? i already drew exactly how i am going to trade this here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5476
I think that was clear.



Well, first PT met already. It didnt even give me the benefit of a pullback. This is truly annoying. That makes Five setups today, not a single one gave me a BPC. Not one. All just barreled away like an african gazelle on steriods.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268836397
I am trying to imagine an african gazelle on steroids, that is really funny..
  • #5,484
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:44am Mar 17, 2010 9:44am
Quoting EntropyLad
Here is my personal thinking: the daily USD/CHF had...
Hi Entropy
am a little confused
my chart shows prices haven't cleared the outer TL on D1
or did i missed out something
appreciate your clarification
thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF D1 Mar. 17 22.40.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #5,485
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:45am Mar 17, 2010 9:45am
Seriously, nightmoves, if this no b-p-c continues, how am i suppose to get that brazilian beach house?

I guess i have to apply for job as your butler....
  • #5,486
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:50am Mar 17, 2010 9:50am
Quoting A 5
Hi Entropy
am a little confused
my chart shows prices haven't cleared the outer TL on D1
or did i missed out something
appreciate your clarification
thanks
Trendlines are subjective. The outermost one is the strongest/the most conservative. I drew three. As shown on the chart below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268837327
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_15 Mar. 17 10.47.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #5,487
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:51am Mar 17, 2010 9:51am
Quoting yunero
Thanks

no, i move it manually to previous S&R level.. i hope you understand what i mean..
yes I do, I am still deciding but major S/R levels seems to be a better option at times than a # stepping SL
  • #5,488
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:54am Mar 17, 2010 9:54am
Quoting EntropyLad
Seriously, nightmoves, if this no b-p-c continues, how am i suppose to get that brazilian beach house?

I guess i have to apply for job as your butler....
Hahahaha I hear ya, what I have been doing in times like these is using the micro patterns and zoom in a little closer to the action, there was a nice 1-2-3 off the top, then it went through the TL with a 1 bar pullback...and then a huge drop and sharp bounce back now it is headed back down again, I still think the TLC is still alive.

--NM
  • #5,489
  • Mar 17, 2010 9:59am Mar 17, 2010 9:59am
Quoting A 5
Hi Entropy
am a little confused
my chart shows prices haven't cleared the outer TL on D1
or did i missed out something
appreciate your clarification
thanks
I have attached another chart, A_5. Pointing out the risk inherent in my position.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268837933
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_17 Mar. 17 10.56.gif Size: 45 KB
  • #5,490
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:01am Mar 17, 2010 10:01am
Quoting EntropyLad
Seriously, nightmoves, if this no b-p-c continues, how am i suppose to get that brazilian beach house?

I guess i have to apply for job as your butler....
There some big players out here that know what the majority of the traders are looking for on their charts, and those guys are big enough to move the market and many times they will see those setups and use it to thier advantage knowing the majority of the positions of the smaller guys. And well the smaller guy gets knocked around a little in the process.

--NM
  • #5,491
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:09am Mar 17, 2010 10:09am
Quoting EntropyLad
Trendlines are subjective. The outermost one is the strongest/the most conservative. I drew three. As shown on the chart below.
ok thanks
i got you now
cheers
  • #5,492
  • Edited 10:22am Mar 17, 2010 10:11am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting NightMoves
Hahahaha I hear ya, what I have been doing in times like these is using the micro patterns and zoom in a little closer to the action, there was a nice 1-2-3 off the top, then it went through the TL with a 1 bar pullback...and then a huge drop and sharp bounce back now it is headed back down again, I still think the TLC is still alive.

--NM
That actually makes sense. i went and check on 1/8th rather than my usual 1/4th trigger chart time frame. All bloody five of those runaway setups had a 1,2,3 and a b-p-c. Even the aud/nzd. Anyways, to reduce noise, i will just have to stick to hector rules of 1/4th time frame. It is what i am comfortable with anyways(i know, daily/h4 is 1/8th anyways, i know, i know...)

UPDATE: daily/h4 = 1/6th. Thanks for the correction, A_5.
  • #5,493
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:16am Mar 17, 2010 10:16am
Quoting EntropyLad
That actually makes sense. i went and check on 1/8th rather than my usual 1/4th trigger chart time frame. All bloody five of those runaway setups had a 1,2,3 and a b-p-c. Even the aud/nzd. Anyways, to reduce noise, i will just have to stick to hector rules of 1/4th time frame. It is what i am comfortable with anyways(i know, daily/h4 is 1/8th anyways, i know, i know...)
Don't get too upset when you missed out on those runaways,
you need clarity of mind to nail those pips right on.
daily/H4 is 1/6th
  • #5,494
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:18am Mar 17, 2010 10:18am
Quoting A 5
Don't get too upset when you missed out on those runaways,
you need clarity of mind to nail those pips right on.
daily/H4 is 1/6th
Yeah, thanks for the advice. Five solid setups that works, and not a single entry bothers me a little. But, i should get over it. It happens. Daily/h4 is 1/6th. 24hrs/6 = 4. How could i miss that?! lol. Thanks for the correction.

UPDATE: just check on my AUD/CHF...long...daily/h4...DIDNT give me a pullback either. Something is strange today. hahaha.

USD/CHF...maybe setting up for a short H4/H1.
Dont know when the pattern will finish forming(i wont like asian session), hopefully, by LONDON time tomorrow it will give my cherish, precious, B-P-C after 1, 2, 3. When it gets to that confluence area.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268838970
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_18 Mar. 17 11.15.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #5,495
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:23am Mar 17, 2010 10:23am
Quoting NightMoves
There some big players out here that know what the majority of the traders are looking for on their charts, and those guys are big enough to move the market and many times they will see those setups and use it to thier advantage knowing the majority of the positions of the smaller guys. And well the smaller guy gets knocked around a little in the process.

--NM
The weekly chart on the USDCHF is in a triangle and I really do not anticipate any big moves out of this pair until it breaks either side of that triangle. It has been in that range fo quite some time.

--NM
  • #5,496
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:24am Mar 17, 2010 10:24am
Here is my view about USD/CHF.. Look at EUR/USD, a mirror pair for USD/CHF. Looks like bear flag is forming on EU daily chart. If it break the lower channel line, EU may push USD/CHF higher.. but i could be wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Yunero_ Mar. 17, 2010_ 23.10.gif Size: 11 KB
Trend + S&R + RR =
  • #5,497
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:31am Mar 17, 2010 10:31am
Anyways, both CAD/CHF and AUD/CHF...long...D/H4...BOTH are not giving me a pullback, my cherished B-P-C.

Not getting in.

To those with higher level of skill or greater appetite for risk, they are all yours.

I am simply too tired to post their setup/trigger chart. I am sure you can all find it.
  • #5,498
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:36am Mar 17, 2010 10:36am
Quoting EntropyLad
Anyways, both CAD/CHF and AUD/CHF...long...D/H4...BOTH are not giving me a pullback, my cherished B-P-C.

Not getting in.

To those with higher level of skill or greater appetite for risk, they are all yours.

I am simply too tired to post their setup/trigger chart. I am sure you can all find it.
Hey who was it that told me : "non-compliance is non-compliance"? remember that LOB discussion we had in late Jan /early Feb... Same still applies, non-compliance is non-compliance.... Tomorrow is another day...

EDIT: hahaha and the S/R condom discussion - "use once" sometimes your analogies are just so spot on that they tend to stick with me for more than a few weeks

Trade safe...
  • #5,499
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:37am Mar 17, 2010 10:37am
Quoting yunero
Here is my view about USD/CHF.. Look at EUR/USD, a mirror pair for USD/CHF. Looks like bear flag is forming on EU daily chart. If it break the lower channel line, EU may push USD/CHF higher.. but i could be wrong.
Quoting NightMoves
The weekly chart on the USDCHF is in a triangle and I really do not anticipate any big moves out of this pair until it breaks either side of that triangle. It has been in that range fo quite some time.

--NM

I LOVE DIVERSITY OF OPINIONS AND ANALYSIS.

May the pips be with us all....I remember this opposing trade that paulette(long AUD/USD) and custos (SHORT AUD/USD)took. About 30mins to 1hour apart. The interesting thing is that they both made pips!
Good money management is key. Not just being right and wrong.

May the pips be with us.....
  • #5,500
  • Mar 17, 2010 10:41am Mar 17, 2010 10:41am
Quoting EntropyLad
I LOVE DIVERSITY OF OPINIONS AND ANALYSIS.

May the pips be with us all....I remember this opposing trade that paulette(long AUD/USD) and custos (SHORT AUD/USD)took. About 30mins to 1hour apart. The interesting thing is that they both made pips!
Good money management is key. Not just being right and wrong.

May the pips be with us.....

Yes, looks like I was a few days early with my trade, tp1 then stopped out - now she is complying to my UP-wish!
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