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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #481
  • Mar 16, 2010 3:47pm Mar 16, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Apologies in advance if this has already been asked but I was under the impression that COT data was 4 days old by the time we get to see it, but looking at the timescale of the COT reports here....

http://timingcharts.com/index.php

...it appears the last recorded data was yesterday.

Can anyone enlighten me..?
hi ukdaytrader,

I explained this at the first post of this thread but I rewrite it here for your convenience,

The report is compiled and released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States every Friday at 15:30 Eastern Time, and records open interest information about the futures market based on the previous Tuesday. Anyone can access the COT report for free on the CFTC website(www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm).
  • #482
  • Mar 16, 2010 6:11pm Mar 16, 2010 6:11pm
Quoting shahab8b
hi ukdaytrader,

I explained this at the first post of this thread but I rewrite it here for your convenience,

The report is compiled and released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States every Friday at 15:30 Eastern Time, and records open interest information about the futures market based on the previous Tuesday. Anyone can access the COT report for free on the CFTC website(www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm)....
Thanks for the clarification. I understood this to be the case.

However, can you explain why more recent dates are visible when you hover your cursor across the trader position lines.

Example
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  • #483
  • Mar 16, 2010 6:15pm Mar 16, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Thanks for the clarification. I understood this to be the case.

However, can you explain why more recent dates are visible when you hover your cursor across the trader position lines.

Example
Attachment
you see the recent dates but the data is the data which was released on last Fri, it will be the same till Fri then it changes
  • #484
  • Mar 16, 2010 6:18pm Mar 16, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting shahab8b
you see the recent dates but the data is the data which was released on last Fri, it will be the same till Fri then it changes
OK, thank you.
  • #485
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:13am Mar 17, 2010 5:13am
Ho, go cable, go cable S&P at new highs, BoJ pumping even more money into their economy, Fed keeping interest rates on hold. What next?

Nice trades Shahab

SSI: USDCHF Ratio Pushes Higher as Retail Bulls Fight the Recent Decline
Wednesday, 17 Mar 2010 09:44 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.97 as nearly 80% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.62 as 78% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.0% higher than yesterday and 16.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 6.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.0% stronger than yesterday and 58.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.35 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.37 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.4% higher than yesterday and 2.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.2% higher than yesterday and 1.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% stronger than yesterday and 9.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.20 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.41 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.2% higher than yesterday and 8.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday and 31.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.3% stronger than yesterday and 10.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.10 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 10.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.7% lower than yesterday and 21.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.5% weaker than yesterday and 10.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.90 as 65% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 3.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.0% higher than yesterday and 3.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.2% weaker than yesterday and 4.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.90 as nearly 80% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.14 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 2.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 3.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.3% stronger than yesterday and 26.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.79 as nearly 64% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.77 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.6% higher than yesterday and 17.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 6.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.2% stronger than yesterday and 0.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.47 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.39 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 22.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.3% higher than yesterday and 22.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.0% stronger than yesterday and 11.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_17_March_2010.pdf   116 KB | 315 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #486
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:25am Mar 17, 2010 5:25am
Quoting Patience
Ho, go cable, go cable S&P at new highs, BoJ pumping even more money into their economy, Fed keeping interest rates on hold. What next?

Nice trades Shahab

SSI: USDCHF Ratio Pushes Higher as Retail Bulls Fight the Recent Decline
Wednesday, 17 Mar 2010 09:44 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

Attachment
Attachment ...
G'day patience,
thanx, yes the trades look fine
it seems retailers are fighting U/CAD and U/CHF , for U/CHF they may be lucky as we got to a turning point- I guess
  • #487
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:26am Mar 17, 2010 5:26am
look at this G/U COT analysis that I posted on Sat and the price of G/U now
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  • #488
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:32am Mar 17, 2010 5:32am
Short U/CHF trade went according to the plan,
now it's time to close the shorts and switch to longs
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  • #489
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:40am Mar 17, 2010 5:40am
G/J Short at 139.12 SL=140 TP=137.300
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  • #490
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:50am Mar 17, 2010 5:50am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day patience,
thanx, yes the trades look fine
it seems retailers are fighting U/CAD and U/CHF , for U/CHF they may be lucky as we got to a turning point- I guess
Hey Shahab

Yeah, it better start looking like it wants to bounce (again) although I can't really see a fundamental reason why considering FOMC.

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #491
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:56am Mar 17, 2010 5:56am
Quoting Patience
Hey Shahab

Yeah, it better start looking like it wants to bounce (again) although I can't really see a fundamental reason why considering FOMC.

Attachment
You are right, but I think after all ,FOMC will be the first to hike among Euro and Swissi and Cable ,
only Loonie and Kiwi will raise rates before FOMC
  • #492
  • Mar 17, 2010 5:59am Mar 17, 2010 5:59am
short USDCHF from 1.0640 hit the Target at 1.0515 ,
profit = +125 pips,
congrates to all who took the trade along side me

now , we have long USDCHF from 1.0515 open
  • #493
  • Mar 17, 2010 6:01am Mar 17, 2010 6:01am
still holding half of the short U/Cad from 1.0220 (+110)
and long A/U from .9100 (+130 pips)
  • #494
  • Mar 17, 2010 6:27am Mar 17, 2010 6:27am
hi guys
the way i think about USDCAD
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  • #495
  • Mar 17, 2010 6:48am Mar 17, 2010 6:48am
Hi Shahab,

What are your thoughts on cable? Is this a good level to short?

thanks
  • #496
  • Mar 17, 2010 6:54am Mar 17, 2010 6:54am
Quoting puks
Hi Shahab,

What are your thoughts on cable? Is this a good level to short?

thanks
hi mate, where have you been?
actually that's a prefect place to short cable
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  • #497
  • Mar 17, 2010 6:55am Mar 17, 2010 6:55am
anyone have any thoughts on otions expiration??? it is triple witching on friday, will that make any real changes or will it make the next coupe of days just more volitile???
  • #498
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:24am Mar 17, 2010 7:24am
Quoting shahab8b
hi mate, where have you been?
actually that's a prefect place to short cable
I am short from 1.5340 and aiming to TP at 1.5240. 100 pips would do me.

Been here only - just a little busy with work and all. Been trading EJ lately. That's more interesting than AU and EU.

been reading your posts and I must congratulate you on great calls and successful trades.

Hope you continue to make many more green pips :-)

cheers
  • #499
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:28am Mar 17, 2010 7:28am
Hello shahab and good morning.

cable broke daily trend line resistence so short now is not a good idea but it's very confusing me because U/chf is on a trend line up and has a good support @ 1.0500 area and sine they are both VS $ so one of this strategies probably wrong.
what do U think ?
where do I wrong here ?

sorry for the poor english , im not so good in it.

ronen.
  • #500
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:01am Mar 17, 2010 11:01am
Quoting ronenasp
Hello shahab and good morning.

cable broke daily trend line resistence so short now is not a good idea but it's very confusing me because U/chf is on a trend line up and has a good support @ 1.0500 area and sine they are both VS $ so one of this strategies probably wrong.
what do U think ?
where do I wrong here ?

sorry for the poor english , im not so good in it.

ronen.
you didnt notice I'm long cable from 1.50 ish , but I did not say it here as I'm supposed to post the trades that I posted the pending orders first ,
and G/U wasnt among my pending ,
I notice some people following the calls, however this thread is not a signal service but I try to be as transparent as possible.

my friend puks asked me if it's good to short cable at 1.5330-40 level, and the answer was yes, as we were sitting below a strong R level, so I expected to see a drop around 40-50 pips from 1.5340 level
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