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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #521
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:59am Mar 16, 2010 11:59am
Quoting Darkstar
There is nobody to talk to in the real world because either they don't care or wouldn’t be able to understand what the hell your babbling on about if they did.
Yeah, the topic of trading is also extremely tied to ego. I've had a few conversations with friends about some of this stuff and it never ends well. I don't know if you're married DS, but father/mother in laws turn out to be experts in the matter. There is something about trading where everybody assumes they know what they are talking about, and they are offended when you gently disagree with them. One friend responded to me once when he heard my interest was in trading and said "oh yeah, in highschool I use to get on the internet and short sell stocks all the time." It's pretty funny sometimes. Everyone thinks they have to be a genius to do it, and that good trading involves calling their stock broker in the middle of a game of golf to scream buy buy buy or sell sell sell! I'm not kidding, I had a friend do this once. He said it was because the time was right.

My father in law has limited access in deciding which funds his 401K are involved in and he'll go on for hours about how he 'trades.' lol.

What kind of business are you involved in outside the trading realm BTW?
  • #522
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:04pm Mar 16, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting lumesh
1) what publicly available data you use in terms of order flow. (maybe COT, oanda OI etc etc. ? what are those etc's ?)
2) Do you use any privately available info in terms of order flow ? (i know darkstar does, i was wondering about you scotty)
3) When you refered to orders Scotty, where did you get this info ? (when you said eariler that the eur is likely to upward, something about the orders supporting it)
4) Is plain futures volume important ? If it is, is it also important to distinguish bid and ask volume separately ?
Its all of the above. Any data that you can get will help you in making decisions. Which would you rather have? Just a chart or a chart with ifr rumors, cot allocation, etc?

The more you know about the people your trading against, the more informed and ultimately the better decisions you can make.
  • #523
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:08pm Mar 16, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting lumesh
FINALLY, you said it )
You just have to put yourself in the shoes of a student.
I'm curious too about DS's early trading days. Did you figure it all out on your own DS or did you have people in your life to at least point you in the right direction? Maybe I'll have to wait for the book.
  • #524
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:10pm Mar 16, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting lumesh
You didn't get good just by getting cryptic replies to your questions when you were in our shoes back in the day, did you ?

You just have to put yourself in the shoes of a student.
When I was a student none of this even existed. I had to build everything I'm talking about here from scratch. That work made me who I am today and I believe anyone who follows in my footsteps will have to do the work as well.

Sometimes the student needs to accept that the teacher is doing the things he is doing for a damn good reason.
  • #525
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:14pm Mar 16, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting Darkstar
Its all of the above. Any data that you can get will help you in making decisions. Which would you rather have? Just a chart or a chart with ifr rumors, cot allocation, etc?

The more you know about the people your trading against, the more informed and ultimately the better decisions you can make.

thanks.

If one would obsessively glance at a DOM 24/7 would it only be a institutional cuurenex, hotspoti that matters or does futures DOM matter too ?
  • #526
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:15pm Mar 16, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting Darkstar
When I was a student none of this even existed. I had to build everything I'm talking about here from scratch. That work made me who I am today and I believe anyone who follows in my footsteps will have to do the work as well.

Sometimes the student needs to accept that the teacher is doing the things he is doing for a damn good reason.

also true.
  • #527
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:29pm Mar 16, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting lumesh
thanks.

If one would obsessively glance at a DOM 24/7 would it only be a institutional cuurenex, hotspoti that matters or does futures DOM matter too ?
I think you could gain a great deal of insight from a futures DOM, but yeah on spot you need an institutional platform to see anything meaningful. The retails DOMs are an illusion.
  • #528
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:31pm Mar 16, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting lumesh
thanks.

If one would obsessively glance at a DOM 24/7 would it only be a institutional cuurenex, hotspoti that matters or does futures DOM matter too ?
I don't think it's obsessive glancing as it were. DOM is just a form of ebay in the trading world. It's just advertised products at different prices. If you want to buy or sell, you do business with those who are sitting at the respective prices. With my limited experience, it's important to see whose auctions are seeing most of the business, not just the auctions themselves. You also need to pay attention to who is actually serious about their auctions.

I don't mean to say that this is all about DOM, it's not. Remember too, I'm not DS. I don't know explicitly what he does in the most technical sense and he doesn't know what I'm doing. I'm just going off my own experience here.
  • #529
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:33pm Mar 16, 2010 12:33pm
Do the news have any impact on price (like today's FOMC) in terms of directional bias or are you still certain about the euro and that the news will just be the noise ?

that is one of the hardest thing for me because news screw with me pretty often

there have been all sorts of news and all sorts of reactions to it, so i quite easily get confused. Maybe you can talk about news events and order flow and how they go together ?

thanks.
  • #530
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:36pm Mar 16, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting Scotty B
I don't think it's obsessive glancing as it were. DOM is just a form of ebay in the trading world. It's just advertised products at different prices. If you want to buy or sell, you do business with those who are sitting at the respective prices. With my limited experience, it's important to see whose auctions are seeing most of the business, not just the auctions themselves. You also need to pay attention to who is actually serious about their auctions.

I don't mean to say that this is all about DOM, it's not. Remember...

I know ...i was only illustrative.
  • #531
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:37pm Mar 16, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting Scotty B
What kind of business are you involved in outside the trading realm BTW?
Computer services and real estate.

While not directly responding to Scotty, there is a post above about me putting up some charts with my thoughts and analysis. This is a great idea and I plan on doing so a bit later. I'm busy with other things at the moment...
  • #532
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:41pm Mar 16, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting lumesh
Do the news have any impact on price (like today's FOMC) in terms of directional bias or are you still certain about the euro and that the news will just be the noise ?

that is one of the hardest thing for me because news screw with me pretty often

there have been all sorts of news and all sorts of reactions to it, so i quite easily get confused. Maybe you can talk about news events and order flow and how they go together ?

thanks.
I think the answer to your question has been very clearly answered here already. I'd say to refer to Suntrader's avatar quote for the 2nd half of it. You don't just trade when news comes out. You have to see what the money thinks of the news. Often times you have to wait till the end of the day to really know.
  • #533
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:49pm Mar 16, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting Scotty B
I think the answer to your question has been very clearly answered here already. I'd say to refer to Suntrader's avatar quote for the 2nd half of it. You don't just trade when news comes out. You have to see what the money thinks of the news. Often times you have to wait till the end of the day to really know.
well, maybe there's more to it. Especially when i read the lines i underlined. And no, i don't just trade when the news come out however i've seen some interesting things happen when i look at "order flow" before news

Maybe i'm wrong though. Here to find out.
  • #534
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:55pm Mar 16, 2010 12:55pm
Darkstar,

I can testify for me and about 5 other people that you have had a trance on us, me and my group have been trying to put the puzzle together for about 4 months (we also have business to run). I want to thankyou for making me feel as if I were looking for A pc of the puzzle because if I had not had that metality I may not have got to this pnt. what i am trying to say is the journey that we have been on made me(atleast) realize that it wasnt the pc of the puzzle I was looking for it was the puzzle itself. now we must put it together.

It does my heart good to see you posting again, please keep it up!!!!

cant wait for the book....


to all of you who are going to inevitably say "suck up". I challange you to find anyone else who has made so many people THINK.
  • #535
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:23pm Mar 16, 2010 1:23pm
The DOM is a waste of time in my opinion, unless you are scalping, you wont see the real limit orders on there, they will be iceberg, you also wont see the whole picture as FX does not have a central exchange. I think the IFR feed is the way to go, you are getting numbers and possible volume.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #536
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:37pm Mar 16, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting Scotty B
Many common TA approaches are correct in finding the places where the flow net reverses




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  • #537
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:39pm Mar 16, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting markmm
The DOM is a waste of time in my opinion, unless you are scalping, you wont see the real limit orders on there, they will be iceberg, you also wont see the whole picture as FX does not have a central exchange.


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  • #538
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:59pm Mar 16, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting pipmutt
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It's nice to be able to back up the TA before you enter though.
  • #539
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:03pm Mar 16, 2010 2:03pm
Where did my posts go!?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #540
  • Mar 16, 2010 2:06pm Mar 16, 2010 2:06pm
Quoting markmm
Where did my posts go!?
Recycle Bin apparantly.
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