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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #501
  • Mar 16, 2010 9:01am Mar 16, 2010 9:01am
Quoting Scotty B

We're just in consolidation at the moment...
oh man, too much orderflow
  • #502
  • Mar 16, 2010 9:15am Mar 16, 2010 9:15am
I think all you really need is a clear long term outlook and a reliable method of entry. If you have those two things you're golden. Orderflow = traders trading. Many common TA approaches are correct in finding the places where the flow net reverses, you just have to figure out how to see it and make SURE IT'S THERE. I'm repeating myself now, but what Mike shared made this concrete for me. If you have your mid/long term outlook down (essential to me), you can rule out one direction (long, short) because the flow just hasn't been favoring that direction. You take your entry when it presents itself and you don't hold your breath. It's not about taking God's place, it's about plugging your equity curve into what the market wants to do in ways that you understand while amplifying your returns with leverage. It's about understanding the MOTIVATION for the price movement you are seeing.

EU is mid term long, and short in the longer term. I threw out the 1.25 many pages back, speaking liberally I would not be real surprised to see 1.15. I'd be happy to post when I see the tide change on the short side, even if I'm wrong.
  • #503
  • Mar 16, 2010 9:23am Mar 16, 2010 9:23am
Quoting Scotty B
I think all you really need is a clear long term outlook, and a reliable method of entry. If you have those two things you're golden. Orderflow = traders trading. Many common TA approaches are correct in finding the places where the flow net reverses, you just have to figure out how to see it and make SURE IT'S THERE. I'm repeating myself now, but what Mike shared made this concrete for me. If you have your mid/long term outlook down (essential to me), you can...
I think you have taken a wrong turn, orderflow trading is more short term. Or have you changed your style?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #504
  • Mar 16, 2010 9:24am Mar 16, 2010 9:24am
Quoting Darkstar
Thats exactly what this thread was.

As far as the current conversation goes... if people can make money daytrading with TA then thats awesome. When I was a daytrader I made my fortune trading orderflow. No TA, no charts.

There ARE inefficiencies in the market and once you start seeing the metagame, you can capture them with impunity. The problem is; the inefficiencies are small and by telling an open forum how to capture them, they disapear. You can call that a carrot if you want.. stop your feet and say that I'm an asshole... but unfortunately...
Darkstar, I like your trading style.. I use it too !
I also dont use TA, FA, Charts.. Make good money when there are inefficiencies in the market
  • #505
  • Mar 16, 2010 9:48am Mar 16, 2010 9:48am
Quoting markmm
I think you have taken a wrong turn, orderflow trading is more short term. Or have you changed your style?
It's a paradox. Who determines the lifespan of any one trade? I'm guessing DS got in and out at faster rates (daytrading) for the compounding. Kudo's to him. It's all about getting a good entry. It's up to you though after that. You can keep your trades on as long or short as you want, wow, what a pun.
  • #506
  • Mar 16, 2010 9:50am Mar 16, 2010 9:50am
Darkstar,

How does the "orderflow trading" short term market inefficiency stlye you traded before compare to what you are doing now? Not in specific #'s but approach.. thanks in advance
  • #507
  • Mar 16, 2010 9:55am Mar 16, 2010 9:55am
Quoting Scotty B
It's a paradox. Who determines the lifespan of any one trade? I'm guessing DS got in and out at faster rates (daytrading) for the compounding. Kudo's to him. It's all about getting a good entry. It's up to you though after that. You can keep your trades on as long or short as you want, wow, what a pun.
I meant you analysis was a long term, but I agree you can use orderflow to get into a trade then manage it in the longer term.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #508
  • Mar 16, 2010 9:56am Mar 16, 2010 9:56am
Quoting Scotty B
It's a paradox. Who determines the lifespan of any one trade? I'm guessing DS got in and out at faster rates (daytrading) for the compounding. Kudo's to him. It's all about getting a good entry. It's up to you though after that. You can keep your trades on as long or short as you want, wow, what a pun.
I have to qualify this a bit..Certain orderflow is less significant than other orderflow. Even the small changes will produce intraday results for a few pips here and there. If you aggregate the flow you get a better Idea for the mid/long term. I'm not saying that a less significant orderflow entry could not turn into a long term trade, it's just probably not what that trader is thinking for that trade. Get my drift?
  • #509
  • Edited 10:50am Mar 16, 2010 9:59am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting markmm
I meant you analysis was a long term, but I agree you can use orderflow to get into a trade then manage it in the longer term.
You're correct. Go back and read my first post. Orderflow isn't concerned only with very small movements. The fact of the matter is I don't have the time to burn myself out trading the small stuff. It's okay with me if it takes a few more years to get there.
  • #510
  • Mar 16, 2010 10:15am Mar 16, 2010 10:15am
Quoting Scotty B
I have to qualify this a bit..Certain orderflow is less significant than other orderflow. Even the small changes will produce intraday results for a few pips here and there. If you aggregate the flow you get a better Idea for the mid/long term. I'm not saying that a less significant orderflow entry could not turn into a long term trade, it's just probably not what that trader is thinking for that trade. Get my drift?
Hi Scotty B,

Simple question: How do you aggregate the flow?

I mean, what or how is your thinking process for guessing or estimating where and what type of orders may be placed at a certain price in a certain time?
(I know mine is based on long term S/R zones and BRN. One of my brokers also informs about some options rumors but I don't use that information for now. still too abstract for me. need to study it)

or

where do you get the data to have real statistics of orderflow to aggregate it?

or

Is there any other way of aggregating the flow?

Thank you in advance
  • #511
  • Mar 16, 2010 10:36am Mar 16, 2010 10:36am
Fundamental, technical, astrological or whatever technique works part of the time.

The key is to know what to do when they don't.

What the market will do is unknown no matter what is used. Saying X/Y/Z doesn't work just means you don't know what to do when they get it wrong.
  • #512
  • Mar 16, 2010 10:37am Mar 16, 2010 10:37am
Quoting Luso
Hi Scotty B,

Simple question: How do you aggregate the flow?

I mean, what or how is your thinking process for guessing or estimating where and what type of orders may be placed at a certain price in a certain time?
(I know mine is based on long term S/R zones and BRN. One of my brokers also informs about some options rumors but I don't use that information for now. still too abstract for me. need to study it)

or

where do you get the data to have real statistics of orderflow to aggregate it?

or

Is there any other way of aggregating the...
You have to remember that orders are votes. The more votes you count the better off you will be if you are me (longer term). The order in which the votes come in make the very short term possible, but I care more abut the majority. The idea is to cast your vote after the results are in. Sorry if I sound cryptic, but your common sense should be kicking in.
  • #513
  • Mar 16, 2010 10:42am Mar 16, 2010 10:42am
Quoting SunTrader
Fundamental, technical, astrological or whatever technique works part of the time.

The key is to know what to do when they don't.

What the market will do is unknown no matter what is used. Saying X/Y/Z doesn't work just means you don't know what to do when they get it wrong.
The gap between your recent posts here, your avatar message, and the ideas in this thread are more than ironic.
  • #514
  • Mar 16, 2010 10:53am Mar 16, 2010 10:53am
Quoting Scotty B
You have to remember that orders are votes. The more votes you count the better off you will be if you are me (longer term). The order in which the votes come in make the very short term possible, but I care more abut the majority. The idea is to cast your vote after the results are in. Sorry if I sound cryptic, but your common sense should be kicking in.
I know this isn't easy to explain. It's not easy to internalize it, too.

So please allow me to ask: how do you know when the results are in? Or is this precisely where my common sense should be kicking in?
  • #515
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:02am Mar 16, 2010 11:02am
Quoting Luso
I know this isn't easy to explain. It's not easy to internalize it, too.

So please allow me to ask: how do you know when the results are in? Or is this precisely where my common sense should be kicking in?
You will no doubt figure it out if you just think about what I'm saying. Trust your common sense. If you can't put it together at this point, after all thats been said, then you might need to make absolute sure you know all the basics @ 100% Thats why so many folks are so upset right now. At least there is a remedy for the milady.

It's not fool proof stuff, it's just as close as you can get to common sense trading.
  • #516
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:07am Mar 16, 2010 11:07am
Quoting t2l&l2t
How does the "orderflow trading" short term market inefficiency stlye you traded before compare to what you are doing now? Not in specific #'s but approach.. thanks in advance


Short term you’re looking for execution inefficiencies.

One thing I can mention (which doesn’t work anymore) was off market limit orders on currenex. Currenex use to have an execution error that in time of high vol, you would get a fraction of a second when there were no market maker bids. It would create a stop cascade through the whole book. You could set a bid 500 pips off the market price and during a news event you would get filled. A fraction of a second later you close it at market. Sometimes that stop cascade would run thousands of pips but because my currenex broker didn't have automatic margin calls, you could hold the position risk free.

Now 4 in 5 times that trade would get reversed, but 1 in 5 you have a risk free 1000 pip ultra high leverage profit. That’s an example and as I said it doesn’t work anymore, but there are lots of other things like this in the marketplace. You just have to be willing to take the time to find them.

I no longer want to invest the time. Once you achieve a certain level of success in trading, you realize how meaningless it is. We don't create any value... our livelihood is built upon the destruction of other peoples hopes and dreams. What’s worse is that we become slaves to the market... 24-6 staring at charts or working out complex math. There is nobody to talk to in the real world because either they don't care or wouldn’t be able to understand what the hell your babbling on about if they did. It’s a fucken lonely business.

These days I just apply the mechanics of orderflow to anticipate longer term price movements. I can look at a chart and see the stops, options, directional bias, etc without any research. I spent so much time with IFR, Oandas open interest, staring at charts, watching the DOM, talking to my broker, etc that it became second nature to know where things are and what’s happening. I use my experience to make money in the market. More importantly, with a longer term focus I can work on other things.

I'm running 2 full time businesses (which both generate a risk free >400% annual return on capital BTW) and I'm about to start writing a book. I have great relationships with the real world people I know and make a decent return on my excess capital in the markets. I'm happy... and there is no amount of money on earth that could get me to give that up.

I know this is a lot broader response then you were looking for. However, given the direction this thread has taken, I'm trying to head off the inevitable response...
  • #517
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:16am Mar 16, 2010 11:16am
Quoting Scotty B
......are more than ironic.
You think so? I think my trading is boringly predictable. Not always the outcome, just how I go about it.
  • #518
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:18am Mar 16, 2010 11:18am
Quoting Darkstar


Short term you’re looking for execution inefficiencies.

[color=black][font=Verdana]One thing I can mention (which doesn’t work anymore) was off market limit orders on currenex. Currenex use to have an execution error that in time of high vol, you would get a fraction of a second when there were no market maker bids. It would create a stop cascade through the whole book....

Where does the stop hunting and option barrier stuff come in, do you still do that or is that part of the short term you have given up? Or do you use the principles scaled out to longer term trading?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #519
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:27am Mar 16, 2010 11:27am
Quoting Scotty B
You have to remember that orders are votes. The more votes you count the better off you will be if you are me (longer term). The order in which the votes come in make the very short term possible, but I care more abut the majority. The idea is to cast your vote after the results are in. Sorry if I sound cryptic, but your common sense should be kicking in.
i have to cut in here. It seems that you are ignoring the question. (which seems to be a bigger issue here and is pointed out by others as well ...

but that's not why i post. This thread is about people who are really into the subject. People who already have made the effort to start the journey of understanding the PEOPLE WHO TRADE. And i don't know how many of those are here. I for one certainly am.

So, may i ask some concrete questions here and all of you can answer. Mostly of course i would be very interested to hear Darkstar's opinions and Scotty's as well.

BUT before i do, remember that i ask this in a sense of what works for YOU. So, you can't go around the corner by saying that what works for me might not work for you. I already realize that. The goal is not the resources here that you have. I just try to exploit some new info for ME by asking those concrete questions. I'm here to LEARN.

here goes:

1) what publicly available data you use in terms of order flow. (maybe COT, oanda OI etc etc. ? what are those etc's ?)
2) Do you use any privately available info in terms of order flow ? (i know darkstar does, i was wondering about you scotty)
3) When you refered to orders Scotty, where did you get this info ? (when you said eariler that the eur is likely to upward, something about the orders supporting it)
4) Is plain futures volume important ? If it is, is it also important to distinguish bid and ask volume separately ?

ok, i'll stop here and will wait patiently for your generous answers. After all i'm here to learn and not to debate. That's not the point of the thread.

take care and thanks in advance.

PS. Darkstar, maybe you can post another chart with explanations (or just the charts and say where did you get in like the last time. That tells me a quite a bit too.)
  • #520
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:45am Mar 16, 2010 11:45am
Quoting Darkstar
[color=black][font=Verdana]These days I just apply the mechanics of orderflow to anticipate longer term price movements. I can look at a chart and see the stops, options, directional bias, etc without any research. I spent so much time with IFR, Oandas open interest, staring at charts, watching the DOM, talking to my broker, etc that it became second nature to know where things are and what’s happening. I use my experience to make money in the market. More importantly, with a longer term focus I can work...

FINALLY, you said it )

now that's a hell of a hint...

which also leads me to my previous posts i have written. The experience you gathered over time was still thanks to a hell of lot of screen time AND putting other things together. I would assume you wouldn't be nearly as good a trader as you are today WITHOUT the screen time AND WITHOUT the data. That is what has led to an understanding of market dynamics and HOW price CAN move.

No wonder where all the critisism comes from. You didn't get good just by getting cryptic replies to your questions when you were in our shoes back in the day, did you ?

You just have to put yourself in the shoes of a student.

I can remember back in high school when a teacher got angry how a student couldn't understand what was so obvious for the teacher.

If you're not ready you're not ready.
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