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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #461
  • Mar 15, 2010 11:13pm Mar 15, 2010 11:13pm
I'm still holding long A/U (.9100), short U/Cad (1.0220) and short U/Chf (1.0640)
for A/U I'm looking for .9233 at 1st target
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  • #462
  • Mar 15, 2010 11:19pm Mar 15, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting shahab8b
look at U/Chf positioning !!!, I still think 1.0515 will give us good entry to go long at that pair

and considering the PA+ SSI , I'm gonna take a short on this pair till my long entry is executed

this short trade is a typical SSI trades, lets see how it will develop

SHORT USDCHF at 1.0640 SL= 1.0640 TP=1.0515
then switch to long at 1.0510-15

the red lines are for my long entry 1st and 2nd target, I just put SL and TP for Short trades, they are not shown in the chart


hey, i think it's good probability. ill try long at 1.0505-ish, and also short e/u at the same time, (which i think will be capped 1.3800-1.3810), due to 20,40 ema on daily

i took one position short usd/chf at 1.06 tp 1.0505-1.0515
  • #463
  • Mar 15, 2010 11:22pm Mar 15, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting Clouds
hey, i think it's good probability. ill try long at 1.0505-ish, and also short e/u at the same time, (which i think will be capped 1.3800-1.3810), due to 20,40 ema on daily

i took one position short usd/chf at 1.06 tp 1.0505-1.0515
I have a pending short order for E/U around those levels too, I think we are seeing the last retracement in E/U and U/Chf before a USD strenght
  • #464
  • Mar 15, 2010 11:35pm Mar 15, 2010 11:35pm
Quoting shahab8b
I have a pending short order for E/U around those levels too, I think we are seeing the last retracement in E/U and U/Chf before a USD strenght
yea, if everything goes according to plan, tonight/tomorrow may be an excellent time load up on some long-term usd positions
  • #465
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:04am Mar 16, 2010 1:04am
Quoting shahab8b
look at U/Chf positioning !!!, I still think 1.0515 will give us good entry to go long at that pair
I manged this 50 pip trade on EUR/CHF based on the sentiment revealed in this thread - I did the same thing last week on USD/CAD two pairs I have never traded before. I think there is scope fror developing a system for finding and executing trades this way. Here is the EUR/CHF trade on the hourly chart in my live Oanda account
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BTC Return This Year: na
  • #466
  • Mar 16, 2010 6:31am Mar 16, 2010 6:31am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I manged this 50 pip trade on EUR/CHF based on the sentiment revealed in this thread
Nice trade. Playing chicken with the SNB I just looked at the 1 hour chart. It's so hilarious. It barely moved from 23 February to 11 March. Reminds me of that Wham song "Wake me up before you go go"

SSI: Retail NZDUSD Bears Fade Three-Day Rally on Range-Bound Price Action
Tuesday, 16 Mar 2010 09:38 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:


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Intraday Highlight:

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.22 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.01 as 50% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 2.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 14.6% higher than yesterday and 5.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.6% stronger than yesterday and 5.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.10 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 2.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.2% higher than yesterday and 12.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 10.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.16 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.19 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.0% lower than yesterday and 5.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.4% higher than yesterday and 5.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.4% weaker than yesterday and 1.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.30 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.23 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.4% higher than yesterday and 5.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.8% lower than yesterday and 19.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.1% stronger than yesterday and 14.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.94 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.74 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.8% higher than yesterday and 8.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 1.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 0.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.09 as nearly 80% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.00 as 80% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% lower than yesterday and 1.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.6% lower than yesterday and 0.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.9% weaker than yesterday and 24.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.71 as nearly 79% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.81 as 79% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.7% lower than yesterday and 16.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 27.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.2% weaker than yesterday and 48.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.59 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.61 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 4.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 0.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.2% stronger than yesterday and 1.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_16_March_2010.pdf   120 KB | 279 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #467
  • Mar 16, 2010 9:42am Mar 16, 2010 9:42am
If you see a 300 pip spike up on EURCHF, don't panic. It's not the broker, it's the SNB, they intervene on EC when they feel the franc is too strong. Happened last June, they defended 1.5 back then. It was them in February too... can you tell the date by looking at the daily chart?

Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I manged this 50 pip trade on EUR/CHF based on the sentiment revealed in this thread - I did the same thing last week on USD/CAD two pairs I have never traded before. I think there is scope fror developing a system for finding and executing trades this way. Here is the EUR/CHF trade on the hourly chart in my live Oanda account
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #468
  • Mar 16, 2010 9:56am Mar 16, 2010 9:56am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I manged this 50 pip trade on EUR/CHF based on the sentiment revealed in this thread - I did the same thing last week on USD/CAD two pairs I have never traded before. I think there is scope fror developing a system for finding and executing trades this way. Here is the EUR/CHF trade on the hourly chart in my live Oanda account
Nice trade, well done ,
The idea of developing a model based on SSI or COT is what I'm working on, even Hayseed suggest to make a EA based on the data, I need to develop an algorithm first and run some demo account to forward test, to see how it works, if you have any idea for developing a model based in these data let me know - for now it's just a tool combined with other things
  • #469
  • Mar 16, 2010 10:00am Mar 16, 2010 10:00am
U/Cad short trades going according to the plan
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  • #470
  • Mar 16, 2010 10:34am Mar 16, 2010 10:34am
short USDCHF trade going according to the plan
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  • #471
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:11am Mar 16, 2010 11:11am
hi guys
seems after breaking the weekly trend line it is going to break the low.
it worth following the price in determined area.

AUDCAD1440
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  • #472
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:32am Mar 16, 2010 11:32am
hi shahab
i have sell order on USDCAD and i thought it could go down till 1.0020 and then lower. but when i saw the attached chart, i confused.
seems CAD is on overbought zone, so based on your experience about these kind of charts, i would be grateful if you explain what is more likely going on, for canadian dollar?

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/1v...tnkw_thumb.jpg

USDCAD240

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/u0...7li1_thumb.jpg

thank you so much
  • #473
  • Mar 16, 2010 11:57am Mar 16, 2010 11:57am
Quoting Victory83
hi guys
seems after breaking the weekly trend line it is going to break the low.
it worth following the price in determined area.

AUDCAD1440
I pointed out that one in my commodity currencies thread, #4
I prefer CAD over AUD for the time being
  • #474
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:09pm Mar 16, 2010 12:09pm
I closed half of the trades on
Long A/U from .9100 at .9150 (+50 pips)
Short U/Cad from 1.0220 at 1.0140 (+80 pips)
Short U/Chf from 1.0640 at 1.0550 (+90 pips)
the rest SL>B/E
  • #475
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:16pm Mar 16, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting Victory83
hi shahab
i have sell order on USDCAD and i thought it could go down till 1.0020 and then lower. but when i saw the attached chart, i confused.
seems CAD is on overbought zone, so based on your...
look at this USDCAD chart,

on A: the long/short ratio is about 8 ,but they bought on dip it means the price should go higher as COT index wasnt extreme

on B: long/short ratio is bout 8 again but the COT index was extrerme ,it means the price should come lower

on C: long/short is about 9 and COT index is not extreme so price should go up because they bought on dip

on D; long/short ratio is 7 , the COT index is extreme, it means we are topping (bottoming in U/Cad) , I took short at a very nice entry at 1.0220 (S turns R- re-test)
from now on, look to buy dip on U/Cad , I have a buy limit order at weekly S1 at 1.01230
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  • #476
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:27pm Mar 16, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting shahab8b
look at this USDCAD chart,

on A: the long/short ratio is about 8 ,but they bought on dip it means the price should go higher as COT index wasnt extreme

on B: long/short ratio is bout 8 again but the COT index was extrerme ,it means the price should come lower

on C: long/short is about 9 and COT index is not extreme so price should go up because they bought on dip

on D; long/short ratio is 7 , the COT index is extreme, it means we are topping (bottoming in U/Cad) , I took short at a very nice entry at 1.0220 (S turns R- re-test)
from now on,...
thanks for your great explanations.
and i saw your new thread already, i try to be active there too.
wish you best
  • #477
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:42pm Mar 16, 2010 12:42pm
Apologies in advance if this has already been asked but I was under the impression that COT data was 4 days old by the time we get to see it, but looking at the timescale of the COT reports here....

http://timingcharts.com/index.php

...it appears the last recorded data was yesterday.

Can anyone enlighten me..?
  • #478
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:55pm Mar 16, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting shahab8b
look at this USDCAD chart,

on A: the long/short ratio is about 8 ,but they bought on dip it means the price should go higher as COT index wasnt extreme

on B: long/short ratio is bout 8 again but the COT index was extrerme ,it means the price should come lower

on C: long/short is about 9 and COT index is not extreme so price should go up because they bought on dip

on D; long/short ratio is 7 , the COT index is extreme, it means we are topping (bottoming in U/Cad) , I took short at a very nice entry at 1.0220 (S turns R- re-test)
from now on,...
this is based off the large traders only? Aren't the COMMs still short? almost the inverse of the LT??

Just curious?
Thanks
  • #479
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:56pm Mar 16, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Apologies in advance if this has already been asked but I was under the impression that COT data was 4 days old by the time we get to see it, but looking at the timescale of the COT reports here....

http://timingcharts.com/index.php

...it appears the last recorded data was yesterday.

Can anyone enlighten me..?
I thought it was from the friday of the previous week.. so would be 4 days old in this case..
  • #480
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:44pm Mar 16, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting Cdawg
I thought it was from the friday of the previous week.. so would be 4 days old in this case..
If you hover your cursor over the end of the green large traders line, yesterdays date will pop up.
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