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AUD/USD

  • #19,001
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:05pm Mar 15, 2010 3:05pm
Quoting Saxon
Ya, this thread died I'm just watiting for this to settle in overbought and give me a nice 20 pip swing. Should happen soon as many indicators are showing overbought. I will run off CCI move, W%R, Momentum and ROC. All showing a potential swing soon.
15min chart?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,002
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:08pm Mar 15, 2010 3:08pm
the market is slow right now.....everyone is waiting on fomc before any real moves are going to be made imho....
Annoying Precision
  • #19,003
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:28pm Mar 15, 2010 3:28pm
I run off 30M and 1HR charts for my daily trading and Weekly for my LT trading. I get a few CCI, W%R, ROC line signal trades a day with about 80% stop free. If you are using MAs on H1 then you get about a trade a day on those with about the same result as the others. Right now I'm just kicking it waiting for Overbought to correct, might happen if nothing spectacular happens in the news. Also, there is a sweet TSR trade opportunity that might be happening this week or the next that I have been waiting 6 MONTHS for That will be my heavy LT trade for the next 4-6 months, but that one brings me the big returns.
  • #19,004
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:33pm Mar 15, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting Saxon
Ya, this thread died I'm just watiting for this to settle in overbought and give me a nice 20 pip swing. Should happen soon as many indicators are showing overbought. I will run off CCI move, W%R, Momentum and ROC. All showing a potential swing soon.
The problem is IMHO that there is no fundamental reason for this pair to go down, while technically it should, so better to stay aside and wait. Probably for the tow from some E or G, which I think will rise this week significantly...
  • #19,005
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:34pm Mar 15, 2010 3:34pm
Sounds like you've been at this a while . I'm not at that level yet , doing my best to wait for those s/r trades.

Quoting Saxon
I run off 30M and 1HR charts for my daily trading and Weekly for my LT trading. I get a few CCI, W%R, ROC line signal trades a day with about 80% stop free. If you are using MAs on H1 then you get about a trade a day on those with about the same result as the others. Right now I'm just kicking it waiting for Overbought to correct, might happen if nothing spectacular happens in the news. Also, there is a sweet TSR trade opportunity that might be happening this week or the next that I have been waiting 6 MONTHS for That will be my heavy LT trade...
Annoying Precision
  • #19,006
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:45pm Mar 15, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting JanPoko
The problem is IMHO that there is no fundamental reason for this pair to go down, while technically it should, so better to stay aside and wait. Probably for the tow from some E or G, which I think will rise this week significantly...
I agree and disagree. The economist in me says I agree, but when you realize that 90% of traders are Short-Term Techies, then you'll end up losing all your capital if you trade fundie. the thing is, Fundamental Analysis works, in my opinion, daily and up, but when you are trading short-term, then technical is where you need to focus. You and me may agree on the fundamental direction AUD should take, and it may there in the coming weeks, but a lot can happen between now and then. To get a good visual, take a daily TF window and plot the trend. then step your window down a frame and do the same thing, you will see 10's or 100's of minor trends within that week. When summed, those minor trends will get you to your fundamental price (Maybe), but unless your stops are large, you will get knocked out far before you can realize your fundamental price. Personally, my investors require Month duration investments, so I have to liquidate every 30 days and have good performance, so I operate in those minor trends. Me and my investors can't stomach the wide stops.
  • #19,007
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:46pm Mar 15, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting erikte279
Sounds like you've been at this a while . I'm not at that level yet , doing my best to wait for those s/r trades.
What is your trading model like? Are you just trading S/R levels? If you want, I can send you some of my models and you can run a few of those and see if they work for you.
  • #19,008
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:59pm Mar 15, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting Saxon
I agree and disagree. The economist in me says I agree, but when you realize that 90% of traders are Short-Term Techies, then you'll end up losing all your capital if you trade fundie.
And some 90% of traders loose :-)

Quoting Saxon
Personally, my investors require Month duration investments, so I have to liquidate every 30 days and have good performance, so I operate in those minor trends. Me and my investors can't stomach the wide stops.
Yes, I understand your position, which makes the difference. Looking at weekly, if you were lucky enough not to buy at the top or sell at the bottom, any long entry between (and without stops - as I do) would wipe none of your capital and with that wonderfull swap, you could only gain...

That's what I love with aussie, letting the affordable small ammount to breathe for quite a long time. As I said, the last half year I always got into green, even with quite a big drawdown some two months ago.

For daily trading, I use cable, which acts faster.
  • #19,009
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:00pm Mar 15, 2010 4:00pm
Essentially trading pullbacks to key s/r on higher tfs. Half profit at 1:1 , stop to b/e other half run to the sun . Also working on MYSELF to become more of a Professional. Any information that you would like to provide would be much appreciated, dont feel obligated.

Thanks,
Erik

Quoting Saxon
What is your trading model like? Are you just trading S/R levels? If you want, I can send you some of my models and you can run a few of those and see if they work for you.
Annoying Precision
  • #19,010
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:06pm Mar 15, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting JanPoko
And some 90% of traders loose :-)



Yes, I understand your position, which makes the difference. Looking at weekly, if you were lucky enough not to buy at the top or sell at the bottom, any long entry between (and without stops - as I do) would wipe none of your capital and with that wonderfull swap, you could only gain...

That's what I love with aussie, letting the affordable small ammount to breathe for quite a long time. As I said, the last half year I always got into green, even with quite a big drawdown some two months ago.

For...
Slaaaaaap, I do recall hearing that stat somwhere that 90% do lose. Got me on that one. You get what I'm saying though, just that the shorter term you get in your investing, the more technical you'll need to get, and vice versa with Fundamental Analysis. Ya, just with me I need to be short term, would love to be able to trade client money long term. I would love to, as a great man once said, "Set It And Forget It - Ronco" with my client's funds.
  • #19,011
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:10pm Mar 15, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting erikte279
Essentially trading pullbacks to key s/r on higher tfs. Half profit at 1:1 , stop to b/e other half run to the sun . Also working on MYSELF to become more of a Professional. Any information that you would like to provide would be much appreciated, dont feel obligated.

Thanks,
Erik
I'll type it up, will take a bit, then post it for you to look at and take what you want from it. Also, might be starting the short swing now.
  • #19,012
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:12pm Mar 15, 2010 4:12pm
Quoting Saxon
I'll type it up, will take a bit, then post it for you to look at and take what you want from it. Also, might be starting the short swing now.
Saxon, have you got a TP for this short swing? If you don't mind me asking... I was looking to 9130.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,013
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:15pm Mar 15, 2010 4:15pm
Ill be tracking like a bloodhound . Thanks, wont forget the generosity.

Quoting Saxon
I'll type it up, will take a bit, then post it for you to look at and take what you want from it. Also, might be starting the short swing now.
Annoying Precision
  • #19,014
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:31pm Mar 15, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Saxon, have you got a TP for this short swing? If you don't mind me asking... I was looking to 9130.
I don't have preset TPs in the short term unless I see key levels (Fib Fan, Fib Ret, Key Resistance, etc...) when trading this short term, I just eyball it and look at my volumes and CCI. I am just going to use my CCI (20) and W%R to generate my signal to enter. It might not form completely for 30M to and Hour. I might look for 20 pips +/- 5 for this one. I going to write down my trade model and post in on here so you can just reference it when I say I am going to dosoming,so you'l know exactly what i'm talking about. But ya, for this one, it would be good to have St Deviation up and maybe exit your trade when you standard deviation starts to level.

If you want something general for this on, I gotta run, just throw up a 20 CCI on a M30 window. Sell when it crosses from above to below 100. It might help to use Heiken Ashi lines a trade when they cross as well. You can find those on MT4 Online Library. ALWAYS wait for the candle to complete to confirm a trade. So It will probably happen in 29 min. I set my algo to trade for me cuz I gotta take the dog to the vet
  • #19,015
  • Mar 15, 2010 4:43pm Mar 15, 2010 4:43pm
Quote
If you want something general for this on, I gotta run, just throw up a 20 CCI on a M30 window. Sell when it crosses from above to below 100. It might help to use Heiken Ashi lines a trade when they cross as well. You can find those on MT4 Online Library. ALWAYS wait for the candle to complete to confirm a trade. So It will probably happen in 29 min. I set my algo to trade for me cuz I gotta take the dog to the vet

Appreciate it. I'll try to catch up with you sometime to get the specifics on the CCI...never used it before and I'm sure mine is going to have different settings then yours. Cheers!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,016
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:32pm Mar 15, 2010 5:32pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Appreciate it. I'll try to catch up with you sometime to get the specifics on the CCI...never used it before and I'm sure mine is going to have different settings then yours. Cheers!
Attached is just a simple 30M example. you can see from my green lines that these are signals. It isn't correct all of the time, but it works pretty well. As with most indicators, it works better in higher time frames. I use it a lot in 1HR. 100 and -100 crosses are signals. Some people us 0.00 crosses a confirmations. There are some Heiken Ashi lines o the candle chart too, those add support as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cci.jpg Size: 146 KB
  • #19,017
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:55pm Mar 15, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Appreciate it. I'll try to catch up with you sometime to get the specifics on the CCI...never used it before and I'm sure mine is going to have different settings then yours. Cheers!
My home terminal set up:

Window 1:

H1 Screen

  1. Candles
  2. Momentum (14) with a Stoch Osc Overlay

M30 Screen

  1. Same thing as above

M15 Screen

  1. Same thing as above

Window 1 Trade Rules:

  1. This is a simple multi-timeframe swing
  2. Use the H1 momentum/Stoch to tell you direction
  3. Smaller time-frames will oscillate within the direction as H1
  4. When smaller time frames Momentum/Osc turn back into the direction of H1, then place trade.
  5. Do not trade this strategy when H1 is in overbought or oversold
  6. Only stay in position as long as your smaller Timeframe is moving in the same direction as H1

Window 2:

H1 Screen

  1. CCI 20
  2. ADX 10
  3. Heiken Ashi Lines

Window 2 Trade Rules:

  1. Use either 1HR or 30M as your TF
  2. Trade either when Heiken Ashi Lines cross or CCI passes down through 100 or up through -100
  3. Use ADX to help confirm

Window 3:

  1. M30 or H1 TF
  2. Basic Candles

Window 3 Trade Rules:

  1. This window is purely for technical line analysis.
  2. I use Fibs, Chan, Gann, etc...

Window 4:

  1. M30 or H1 TF
  2. MML used
  3. Volumes Used

Window 4 Trade Rules:

  1. I only use window 4 for TP or SL levels. I do not trade in this window

Window 5:

  1. Use Standard Deviation
  2. Use Bollinger Bandwidth
  3. Overlay the above 2
  4. ROC (Rate of Change) indicator
  5. W%R with Momentum Overlay
  6. MA 200
  7. MA 100
  8. MA 75
  9. MA 50
  10. MA 40
  11. MA 30
  12. MA 20
  13. MA 10
  14. ALL MAs are SIMPLE

Window 5 Trade Rules:

  1. Use swing fans to find support/resistance
  2. Use slow MAs to find overall AUD direction
  3. Use fast MAs as slow MAs for Faster MAs
  4. Use fast MAs as exits for faster MAs
  5. Use Slow MA crossovers to signal significant movements
  6. Use St Deviation Overlay with Bollinger Bandwidth to signal trading regime (Trend/Range)
  7. Use ROC to crossing through signal lines to generate buy/sell
  8. Use Momentum for strength with W%R signal lines to buy/sell
  9. All of these signals support each other

One of my other windows has a weekly TF with a TSR to signal long term trades
I have another window with a RVI that I use for crossovers
I have another window with Fractals lines to indicate trading regime

This is my home terminal and it works well for me. You can take from it what you like and see if it works for you. A lot of this is standard stuff. Also, my blog will have an exact setup soon of what I use so you can just throw them in you MT4 and compile templates. I hope this helps

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cci h1.jpg Size: 152 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: momentumstoch.jpg Size: 138 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: technicals.jpg Size: 145 KB
  • #19,018
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:57pm Mar 15, 2010 5:57pm
I forgot to post window 5. Here it is

Quoting Saxon
My home terminal set up:

Window 1:


H1 Screen

  1. Candles
  2. Momentum (14) with a Stoch Osc Overlay

M30 Screen

  1. Same thing as above

M15 Screen

  1. Same thing as above

Window 1 Trade Rules:[list][*]This is a simple multi-timeframe swing[*][color=#211600]Use...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: window 5.gif Size: 62 KB
  • #19,019
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:00pm Mar 15, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting Saxon
I forgot to post window 5. Here it is

Saxon, you didn't have to do all of that for me...geez I appreciate it.

BTW...I took the short swing trade and got out a second ago. Met quota for the day (a little more)!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,020
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:04pm Mar 15, 2010 6:04pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Saxon, you didn't have to do all of that for me...geez I appreciate it.

BTW...I took the short swing trade and got out a second ago. Met quota for the day (a little more)!
Good job man!!! I did too. I took a few pips and am going to go take a nap until London. Good luck with your trades!
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