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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #441
  • Mar 14, 2010 1:31pm Mar 14, 2010 1:31pm
hi guys

usdyen1440
------------
i think, this pair will break the daily trend line soon and it could go up to 95.not that easy but it would maybe during a month ahead.
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  • #442
  • Mar 14, 2010 1:34pm Mar 14, 2010 1:34pm
GBPUSD240

i think we just find the best price to sell cause there is nothing good for GBP so as to change the downtrend direction.
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  • #443
  • Mar 14, 2010 1:36pm Mar 14, 2010 1:36pm
USDCHF1440
we could use overbought and oversold prices for swing trading.
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  • #444
  • Mar 14, 2010 1:40pm Mar 14, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I think it is interesting to note that according to Oandas stats, Aussie long positions are now at 55%. I think shahab8b .9190 entry could have nailed the turn although I wouldnt be surprised to see price blow off higher, taking out a few more short stops and sucking in a few more longs before turning. The daily chart is showing a reversal cluster at resistence as price has definetly stalled for now. Oanda samples hourly so that positioning could change but I think it is definetly worth keeping an eye on. It will be interesting to see what the COT...
I agree that the daily has stalled (much like the S&P in the last three days - I always keep an eye on the S&P) but if the S&P can muster any more upside to cleanly break the highs then I won't be looking to short until I see the reaction around that descending trendline or around 0.9250/70 area. Other reasons I'm not quite ready to look for a short is because CAD broke out on Friday, we've only done 259 pips so far this month (average monthly range for 2009 was 632 pips, January 2010 - 496 pips and February 2010 - 493 pips) and that monthly candle doesn't inspire me to short either. We are also above my 34 EMA on 4 hour (currently sitting at 0.9120 and this area has proven hard to break on the last few attempts) as well as being above weekly and monthly pivots. Give me indice weakness though and I'll jump on the short train.

Also attached FX Strategy Weekly for those who like to have a little read.

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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FX_Strategy_Weekly_12th_Mar_2010e.pdf   768 KB | 312 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #445
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:22pm Mar 14, 2010 7:22pm
ONE of the largest undeveloped copper and gold projects in Australia is up for sale.

The project partners which own the Carrapateena copper and gold project in South Australia's far north have appointed Rothschilds to find a joint venture partner or buyer for the project.

Carrapateena is something of a fairytale story, with RMG Services owner and metallurgist Rudy Gomez putting his own money on the line to drill two holes at the site, about 100km southeast of the Olympic Dam copper, gold and uranium mine.

The SA Government, through its PACE program, co-funded that drilling, which returned a phenomenal intersection of 70m at 3.03 per cent copper and 0.4 grams per tonne of gold.

Canadian company Teck came on board in late 2005 and backed up the initial drilling with a 905m intersection at a grade of 2.17 per cent copper and 0.9 grams per tonne of gold, starting from 487m below ground surface
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business...-1225840213594
  • #446
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:24pm Mar 14, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting Patience
I agree that the daily has stalled (much like the S&P in the last three days - I always keep an eye on the S&P) but if the S&P can muster any more upside to cleanly break the highs then I won't be looking to short until I see the reaction around that descending trendline or around 0.9250/70 area....
hi patience ,thanx for the weekly strategy report, very helpful as always. as you said S&P will give us a clue about the direction sooner than later.
with this new high that S&P made last week all Robert Pretcher analysis is worthless now.
  • #447
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:26pm Mar 14, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting siewhf
ONE of the largest undeveloped copper and gold projects in Australia is up for sale.

The project partners which own the Carrapateena copper and gold project in South Australia's far north have appointed Rothschilds to find a joint venture partner or buyer for the project.

Carrapateena is something of a fairytale story, with RMG Services owner and metallurgist Rudy Gomez putting his own money on the line to drill two holes at the site, about 100km southeast of the Olympic Dam copper, gold and uranium mine.

The SA Government, through its PACE program,...
so what would be the impact on commodity currencies?
  • #448
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:28pm Mar 14, 2010 7:28pm
Quoting Victory83
hi guys

usdyen1440
------------
i think, this pair will break the daily trend line soon and it could go up to 95.not that easy but it would maybe during a month ahead.
somehow I think it will break higher but I think of may be 93.11
  • #449
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:29pm Mar 14, 2010 7:29pm
Quoting Victory83
GBPUSD240

i think we just find the best price to sell cause there is nothing good for GBP so as to change the downtrend direction.
I like this one , what's the TP and SL?
  • #450
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:40pm Mar 14, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I think it is interesting to note that according to Oandas stats, Aussie long positions are now at 55%. I think shahab8b .9190 entry could have nailed the turn although I wouldnt be surprised to see price blow off higher, taking out a few more short stops and sucking in a few more longs before turning. The daily chart is showing a reversal cluster at resistence as price has definetly stalled for now. Oanda samples hourly so that positioning could change but I think it is definetly worth keeping an eye on. It will be interesting to see what the COT...
hi there, how do you use Oandas positioning report? thnx
  • #451
  • Mar 14, 2010 8:49pm Mar 14, 2010 8:49pm
Quoting shahab8b
hi patience ,thanx for the weekly strategy report, very helpful as always. as you said S&P will give us a clue about the direction sooner than later.
with this new high that S&P made last week all Robert Pretcher analysis is worthless now.
I would be surprised to see more gains though. Who is buying up at these levels? It needs a correction just based on how far PA is away from my moving averages. Even Jurik looks really stretched on daily chart.

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #452
  • Edited Mar 15, 2010 12:21am Mar 14, 2010 11:58pm | Edited Mar 15, 2010 12:21am
Quoting avide
hi there, how do you use Oandas positioning report? thnx
Use it as a contrarian guide in much the same way as SSI and C.O.T. Besides client positions you can also examine orders. When most of the clients are positioned long then odds are the price will move down and you can see where all the stops are. With USD /CAD last week I could see that price only needed to move down to 1.0160 to take out all the stops so I set a TP at 1.0185 to be safe. Price went down to 1.0155 before bouncing back up to 1.0185 - just enough to clear the stops. Price moves in the direction that will cause the most pain, dont ask me why it does that but you dont want to be going the same way as everyone else. Sentiment is very usefull, I dont do anything these days without checking positioning but its not fool proof, Timing is the tricky part, price can move hundreds of pips and the positioning can change leaving you holding the bag. You need to combine it with news, technicals and risk management.

Quoting shahab8b
hi M.A.C.Doug, thanx for your nice chart, what do you think of those daily candles (the last 3) on A/U?
I doubt that it is the highest price we will see but that is what I call a reversal cluster and I take it as a signal that a turn will happen soon. Note on this euro chart that there was three warnings before price collapsed. Had you been watching cot you would have been able to accurately time the turn as extreme bearish positioning occured at the same time as the third set of reversal candles
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  • #453
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:43am Mar 15, 2010 2:43am
Quoting shahab8b
I like this one , what's the TP and SL?
yeah i like it too. based on current status in UK i think you could sell it without sl
i follow the price in determined zone and enter the market in 5 min chart. therefore i put the sl on the high of the swings in 5 min chart.

and i think market will see the 1.4970 soon.
  • #454
  • Edited 8:49am Mar 15, 2010 8:39am | Edited 8:49am
Hi guys - sorry it's a bit late but I had to do a few bits this morning and have only just managed to have a look at the market.

SSI: USDCAD Ratio Continues to Push Higher as Retail Bulls Fade 11-Day Decline
Monday, 15 Mar 2010 10:33 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.64 as nearly 82% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.54 as 82% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.8% higher than yesterday and 14.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 2.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.4% stronger than yesterday and 32.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.


SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.50 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.9% higher than yesterday and 5.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 24.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.6% stronger than yesterday and 15.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.02 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.15 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.1% higher than yesterday and 9.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.0% lower than yesterday and 22.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 1.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.12 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.0% higher than yesterday and 6.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.2% higher than yesterday and 21.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 12.8% stronger than yesterday and 14.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.79 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.82 as 65% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.0% higher than yesterday and 11.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.5% higher than yesterday and 10.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.5% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 4.42 as nearly 82% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.38 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.6% higher than yesterday and 47.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.7% higher than yesterday and 28.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.4% stronger than yesterday and 58.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.67 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.40 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 11.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 19.3% higher than yesterday and 6.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.2% stronger than yesterday and 5.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.12 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.12 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.1% higher than yesterday and 11.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 16.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.0% stronger than yesterday and 2.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

USDX 4 Hour

Well we got the bounce on the 4 hour. Got a soft opening on the indices as well. Bad TIC data or what! They don't seem to make such a big deal of it these days for some reason. I remember the days when this release used to be quite a market mover. Daily Market Strategy also attached. I haven't read it yet so don't know if it is of any use but have posted it anyway.

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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_15_March_2010.pdf   110 KB | 305 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #455
  • Mar 15, 2010 10:37am Mar 15, 2010 10:37am
I closed all my USD long positions due to uncertainty of the market direction.

closed positions:

SHORT E/U from 1.3757 (+100) ,1.3785 (+128 pips) closed at 1.3657
SHORT A/U from .9150 (+50), .9190 (+90) closed at .9100
LONG U/C from 1.0250 (-30 pips), 1.0745 (+75 pip ) closed at 1.0220
  • #456
  • Mar 15, 2010 10:47am Mar 15, 2010 10:47am
Open positions ;

short U/C ;enrty 1.0220
long A/U ; enrty .9100
  • #457
  • Mar 15, 2010 10:53am Mar 15, 2010 10:53am
U/C short has been taken on S>R touch
1.0220
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  • #458
  • Edited 11:17am Mar 15, 2010 11:05am | Edited 11:17am
Quoting Patience
Hi guys - sorry it's a bit late but I had to do a few bits this morning and have only just managed to have a look at the market.

SSI: USDCAD Ratio Continues to Push Higher as Retail Bulls Fade 11-Day Decline
Monday, 15 Mar 2010 10:33 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

Attachment
Attachment

Intraday Highlight:

USDCAD[font=Arial]...
look at U/Chf positioning !!!, I still think 1.0515 will give us good entry to go long at that pair

and considering the PA+ SSI , I'm gonna take a short on this pair till my long entry is executed

this short trade is a typical SSI trades, lets see how it will develop

SHORT USDCHF at 1.0640 SL= 1.0640 TP=1.0515
then switch to long at 1.0510-15

the red lines are for my long entry 1st and 2nd target, I just put SL and TP for Short trades, they are not shown in the chart
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  • #459
  • Mar 15, 2010 11:35am Mar 15, 2010 11:35am
I'm looking for a long G/U entry, will post it later
  • #460
  • Mar 15, 2010 9:01pm Mar 15, 2010 9:01pm
Danske Bank report and forecast
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File Type: pdf FXForeast Danske Bank.pdf   458 KB | 501 downloads
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