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Attachments: Commodity Currencies: AUD, CAD and NZD
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Commodity Currencies: AUD, CAD and NZD

  • #21
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:40pm Mar 14, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting bsupreme
These are the currencies driving the market right now imo.

My Opinion - for discussion I am not trying to give trading advise please do your own research before risking anything.

I would only buy these and never bet against them they're too strong.

CAD is the one to watch like a hawk it's en-route to parity with the USD and Canada really doesn't want that due to trade. Annual oil demand in the summer might push it to parity.

AUD has hinted about yet another rate hike.

CAD has hinted about a rate hike. USD and CAD interest are equal right now...
hi bsupreme,
generally speaking your are right about the strength of commodity currencies , as gold and silver and oil have been rising since feb/march 09,
but going long or short depend on your time frame beside your entry level
my point is if you take a short trade on a weekly R there is a good chance that the market gives you a quick 30-40 pips, however its not always the case ,particularly in a fast trending market which R/S levels are taken out without hesitation
to sum up, I think if you put two good traders in the market and tell them one should trade only short and one only long ,they will end up with profit regardless of the market direction
  • #22
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:42pm Mar 14, 2010 6:42pm
Quoting Wakanapi
Double high + double pinbar formations is good enough for me to be bearish if we have a break of the pins low.
I prefer to sell near a R level -like weekly R at .9211 - or I'll be waiting to see clear break of S at .9112
  • #23
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:36pm Mar 14, 2010 7:36pm
Quoting shahab8b
there is a good chance that A/U meets the 100% projection level of its previous move , that will be around .9311
considering the U/C broke into new a low-after a lengthy consolidation- I wont be surprised to see the same happens in A/U
I'm long from 90.40
  • #24
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:37pm Mar 14, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting shahab8b
U/C
sell at 1.0220
reason:
1-S>R
2-weekly Pivot at 1.0222
hi shahab8b,
nice chart, are you short ?
  • #25
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:14pm Mar 14, 2010 9:14pm
Pivot: 0.914

Our preference: Long positions above 0.914 with targets @ 0.92 & 0.923 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.914 look for further downside with 0.911 & 0.909 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed, the pair stands within a MT bullish channel.
Attached Image
  • #26
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:04am Mar 15, 2010 2:04am
Quoting shahab8b
it really depends on your time frame, what TF do you use?
i cash my last nite trade in 40 pips i am not in mood to go long in this pair but doing day trading with it what do you suggest for this ..in whicch trades you are enter already and what will be next trades please post

thanks

Ub
  • #27
  • Mar 15, 2010 5:22am Mar 15, 2010 5:22am
Quoting shahab8b
I prefer to sell near a R level -like weekly R at .9211 - or I'll be waiting to see clear break of S at .9112

I see! I made my enty yesterday on the daily tf with a 40 pip stoploss... im 50 pips up now, aiming for at least the minor support/problem area at 0.9030 approx.
  • #28
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:34am Mar 15, 2010 6:34am
There is a bullish Gartley pattern setting up a long trade on the NZD/USD. This does not conflict with the opportunity to sell that we have posted on the primary technical report. This pattern has excellent price symmetry, although the pair is too far from completion to judge its time symmetry. The trade would enter just below 61.8% of YZ on the 8hr Chart, which adds further strength to this trade. Overall, this is a fairly textbook setup.
We are looking to buy the NZD/USD if it falls to 0.6912 (Point D). Point D is located at the convergence of the following points:
78.6% Fibonacci retracement of XA.
161.8% Fibonacci extension of BC.
AB=CD.
61.8% Fibonacci retracement of YZ.
Attached Image
  • #29
  • Mar 15, 2010 7:24am Mar 15, 2010 7:24am
A/U hidden bullish Div in 4H -
there is a good chance that we see higher price today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdf.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #30
  • Mar 15, 2010 10:55am Mar 15, 2010 10:55am
SHORT U/C has been taken on S>R touch at 1.0220
I took longs on A/U at .9100
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad1c.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #31
  • Mar 15, 2010 10:59am Mar 15, 2010 10:59am
A/U: ema 55 4h touch may hold this pair
I took long at .9100 SL= .9050
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdf.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #32
  • Mar 15, 2010 11:15am Mar 15, 2010 11:15am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
SHORT U/C has been taken on S>R touch at 1.0220
I took longs on A/U at .9100
Hey there Shahab,

Just coming back from work. See U/C has made it up to your entry position.

Nice bounce at the first touch... but now testing again.....

What is your SL on that trade? I see more former support levels @ 1.023X - 1.024x that should now be resistance as well!?
Placing the stop up there?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #33
  • Mar 15, 2010 11:23am Mar 15, 2010 11:23am
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab,

Just coming back from work. See U/C has made it up to your entry position.

Nice bounce at the first touch... but now testing again.....

What is your SL on that trade? I see more former support levels @ 1.023X - 1.024x that should now be resistance as well!?
Placing the stop up there?
I took short on U/C at 1.0220 , SL is 40 pips and 100 pips depending on my position size, I dont see it going till 1.0270-80 if it gets there I'm wrong in the trade and I need to re-evaluate again

I added another one at 1.0230
  • #34
  • Mar 15, 2010 12:04pm Mar 15, 2010 12:04pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
I took short on U/C at 1.0220 , SL is 40 pips and 100 pips depending on my position size, I dont see it going till 1.0270-80 if it gets there I'm wrong in the trade and I need to re-evaluate again

I added another one at 1.0230
Ok. SHort here from 1.0222. Got my stop @ 1.026 for now
Looking at the last drop (1.0321 to 1.0155) our entry point would be 38.2 fibo retracement. My stop would be just above the 61.8.
Looks like a hard struggle at the current levels.. So lets see how uit will work out.
-Good Luck to you-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_cad.jpg Size: 157 KB
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #35
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:04pm Mar 15, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting Tuner
Ok. SHort here from 1.0222. Got my stop @ 1.026 for now
Looking at the last drop (1.0321 to 1.0155) our entry point would be 38.2 fibo retracement. My stop would be just above the 61.8.
Looks like a hard struggle at the current levels.. So lets see how uit will work out.
-Good Luck to you-
nice , lets see how it will develop, it is interesting to know that I just read one of the analysts in Dailyfx wrote he took long at this level due to some reasons, to me this level is a good sell entry for a short term trade, we can close 1st one in 40-50 pips and 2nd SL to B/E if it plays as we expect
  • #36
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:49pm Mar 15, 2010 2:49pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
nice , lets see how it will develop, it is interesting to know that I just read one of the analysts in Dailyfx wrote he took long at this level due to some reasons, to me this level is a good sell entry for a short term trade, we can close 1st one in 40-50 pips and 2nd SL to B/E if it plays as we expect
Looks good for now.

analyses at "Trading central" also advised to go long

"
Pivot: 1.0155

Our preference: Long positions above 1.0155 with targets @ 1.025 & 1.0275 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.0155 look for further downside with 1.0125 & 1.01 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.

Key levels
1.032
1.0275
1.025
1.0217 last
1.0155
1.0125
1.01 "

But I don't always follow their advice
+30pips at the moment.. I only got one small position.. and not able to close a part of it.... so I will have to decide soon.. take the profit..or SL to BE and let it run...
Attached Image
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #37
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:58pm Mar 15, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting Tuner
...
right ,I understand what you said, I usually take 4-5 positions when I'm trading but small size, for instance if I want to trade 2 lot - I divided into 4* 0.5 lot position so I can play with them as I want.right now I have couple of positions on short U/C and long A/U from .9100
  • #38
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:04pm Mar 15, 2010 3:04pm
look at A/U
it got support from ema55 4H as I expected, with a bullish 4H candle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #39
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:16pm Mar 15, 2010 3:16pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
right ,I understand what you said, I usually take 4-5 positions when I'm trading but small size, for instance if I want to trade 2 lot - I divided into 4* 0.5 lot position so I can play with them as I want.right now I have couple of positions on short U/C and long A/U from .9100
That's a good thing... to be honest.. my account doesn't allow me to do so at the moment... got 2 accounts at the moment ...(switched to FxPro with a really small initial deposit. Still waiting for the withdrawal from the other broker to put it in there...)
so until then not really "flexible" in my trading

btw.. your AUD trade looks good.. seems to have a lil more steam than the CAD?! missed that one
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #40
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:46pm Mar 15, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting Tuner
That's a good thing... to be honest.. my account doesn't allow me to do so at the moment... got 2 accounts at the moment ...(switched to FxPro with a really small initial deposit. Still waiting for the withdrawal from the other broker to put it in there...)
so until then not really "flexible" in my trading

btw.. your AUD trade looks good.. seems to have a lil more steam than the CAD?! missed that one
dont worry, the next opportunity will come soon, the most important thing is to get a good entry, if you missed that , wait for the next one, dont jump in without a good plan, my weekly plan is to take 4-5 trades with 250 pips total, if you wait for the right moment you can get more than 4-5 nice set up in a week
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