Commodity Currencies: AUD, CAD and NZD

Commodity Currencies :AUD ,CAD and NZD and their crosses ,

I notice there are some traders including me, who trade all these commodity currencies together due to their close correlation and their hedging properties.Moreover I see some experience traders have stopped posting to AUDUSD thread due to unpleasant issues ; CAD traders are divided between two threads and NZD thread is not that active. In this regard, I decided to open this thread to address these issues.

the pairs that are being discussed here are:
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD

and their crosses ;furthermore, we may discuss commodities like Gold, Silver and Oil due to their inevitable impact.

for the time being there is no vouch requirement for posting but I may consider that in case it is needed.

can we short aussie from this level?AU?


Ub

it really depends on your time frame, what TF do you use?

These are the currencies driving the market right now imo.

My Opinion - for discussion I am not trying to give trading advise please do your own research before risking anything.

I would only buy these and never bet against them they're too strong.

CAD is the one to watch like a hawk it's en-route to parity with the USD and Canada really doesn't want that due to trade. Annual oil demand in the summer might push it to parity.

AUD has hinted about yet another rate hike.

CAD has hinted about a rate hike. USD and CAD interest are equal right now however CAD historically likes to have it's rate lower than USD. I see this as a flag.

I haven't read anything about NZD rates however NZD pairs had a rough week last week.

EUR/CAD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD GBP/CAD USD/CAD are all at or near yearly lows. The divergence between the commodities and financials is crazy right now.

AUD and NZD are suppose to be the two big carry trades this year. I suspect the big money is behind the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY from recent activity.

I hope my post can get a discussion rolling on this thread.

EDIT: For my statement regarding only buying these. That doesn't mean only for example only buy AUD/USD. If the AUD/USD is in a downtrend it doesn't necessarily mean the AUD is depreciating. You have to broaden your horizon to get a total view. If you think AUD is strong look for opportunities on more than just the AUD/USD. eg. AUD/NZD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY etc.

A/U

U/C

N/U

AUDCAD
I think CAD will outperform AUD in coming weeks

Silver

Learningmarkets commodity currencies analysis; it's a very good video indeed

http://www.learningmarkets.com/Forex...sis-video.html

Hey Shahab,
Congrats on your new thread. Sure there will be some interesting discussions in here.
Nice chart on the AUD!
I am flat at the moment. That break to the upside could happen indeed. I'll be watching 9190 area.
As well as 9140 and 9110 area to the downside..

Last week (from Tue on) was in a pretty tight range (9110 - 9190)
So let's see if we can break out of there.

thanx turner,
I've put sell limit orders at weekly R1 and R2 at (.9211 and .9272)
I think we will get there soon
besides weekly pivot at .9133 is a good place for taking longs but I dont trade longs on A/U for now because I see Gold is in h4 downtrend , I need to see more strength on gold to take longs on A/U
did you watch the video I posted , the guy is pretty good at his analysis , I've been watching his comments

Nice chart I agree, I have 9203 to 9219 as the highs this week, I am looking for a bounce off that area and start moving down, if it breaks though and we have a weekly close above 9173 then I see no downtrend in sight. Sorry can't post a chart for a clearer explanation.

hi amyc, what do you think of USDCAD? I mean according to your charts what level might be the low for this week?

Sorry can't help there, I am away at the moment and don't have my charting software with me, the only charts I have are what my husband emails me for the aud and eu

Gold is in downtrend channel in 4H , 61% fib level may hold

there is a good chance that A/U meets the 100% projection level of its previous move , that will be around .9311
considering the U/C broke into new a low-after a lengthy consolidation- I wont be surprised to see the same happens in A/U

U/C
sell at 1.0220
reason:
1-S>R
2-weekly Pivot at 1.0222

After that nice rally last week and break of the 1.02 I think the doors more than open now.
I actually like to wait for a retrace first after such a fall. But not sure if we are going to see too much of it.
Next stop = parity?
Not in a trade yet. will get some sleep and hope for a nice entry-possibility tomorrow.

Good luck to you all!

-Tuner-

Double high + double pinbar formations is good enough for me to be bearish if we have a break of the pins low.