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AUD/USD

  • #18,961
  • Edited 8:54pm Mar 12, 2010 8:25pm | Edited 8:54pm
Quoting doblece
...why is it that COT data wasn't updated while chart has?

Last week's COT chart

Attachment

This week's COT chart

Attachment

It's a little hard to believe there has been no change at all?
Hi , if you like to check COT report sooner you need to look at the official website : (www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm).
the timingcharts website usually has some delay because they enter the data from official site to make the charting possible , I just posted the last one in my thread and the net long is increased from 48,761 to 61,285 contracts , which is close to one year high ,open interests are close to yearly high at 130,808 and COT index 13 is 95 (close to bullish 100 extreme), I guess it may top around 92.5-93 ish
  • #18,962
  • Mar 12, 2010 8:28pm Mar 12, 2010 8:28pm
well well.... I wont post a chart because i added so many lines it looks like spider man came to visit me... BUT im holding shorts from 9186. next target 9007
  • #18,963
  • Mar 12, 2010 8:50pm Mar 12, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting england33
quite a bit of activity on USD/CAD.. anyone have an impression?
U/C just broke the weekly triangle, short contacts are extreme , should go lower -to be exact the target of triangle break out is .9750 - but who dares to short it at this level , I post a COT report on U/C at my thread
  • #18,964
  • Mar 12, 2010 8:53pm Mar 12, 2010 8:53pm
Quoting shahab8b
I just posted the last one in my thread and the net long is increased from 48,761 to 61,285 contracts , which is close to one year high ,open interests are close to yearly high at 130,808 and COT index 13 is 95 (close to bullish 100 extreme), I guess it may top around 92.5-93 ish
Thanks so much for the info, shabab8b! That's what I thought! (and now it shows ok, I guess I was too early indeed...)
  • #18,965
  • Mar 12, 2010 9:08pm Mar 12, 2010 9:08pm
AUD/USD
SHORT @ 0.9180
S/L @ 0.9226 (47 PIP STOP)
CURRENTLY +22 PIPS

Daily chart overbought on slow SMI and fast stochastic's (slight divergence)

Divergence on macd histogram

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/1750/audusdw.gif

4 HR chart I see a double top, divergence on smi, stochastics and macd

http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/6427/audusd1.gif

1 HR chart slight divergence on smi and huge divergence on macd

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/9230/audusd2.gif

1st target is the 200 ema on the 1hr chart then I will go from there. Looking to possibly hit the 200 on the daily.
  • #18,966
  • Mar 13, 2010 2:55am Mar 13, 2010 2:55am
Good charts you guys. ya, she's looking exhausted. I agree with Kourtney, charts are looking kinda nasty after a week of guess-timation so I wont throw them up, but my view is mildly bearish. I have a few exhaustion analogies, haha, but I don't think they are appropriate. Time for beer, it's the weekend!

Quoting Dstroydnside
AUD/USD
SHORT @ 0.9180
S/L @ 0.9226 (47 PIP STOP)
CURRENTLY +22 PIPS

Daily chart overbought on slow SMI and fast stochastic's (slight divergence)

Divergence on macd histogram

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/1750/audusdw.gif

4 HR chart I see a double top, divergence on smi, stochastics and macd

http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/6427/audusd1.gif

1 HR chart slight divergence on smi and huge divergence on macd

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/9230/audusd2.gif

1st target is the 200 ema on the 1hr chart...
  • #18,967
  • Mar 13, 2010 6:24pm Mar 13, 2010 6:24pm
wow, i short AUD/USD and the interest per night is quite big. hopefully the trend will going to bearish soon.
  • #18,968
  • Mar 13, 2010 10:32pm Mar 13, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting yeri
wow, i short AUD/USD and the interest per night is quite big. hopefully the trend will going to bearish soon.
Ya for me its only $1.04 with IBFX
  • #18,969
  • Edited 5:42am Mar 14, 2010 4:36am | Edited 5:42am
From Oanda Fx blog :

In the O/N session the AUD traded near its seven-week high from Jan. vs. the dollar as traders bet ‘accelerating growth’ will prompt its RBA to increase interest rates. The weaker than expected Australian employment report (+0.4k vs. +15.2k) earlier this week only provided an opportunity for speculators to add to their positions. In Feb., the economy added the fewest jobs in six-months. Some have suggested that the RBA ‘has room to slow the pace of future interest-rate increases (+4%)’. The pause in the employment boom ‘may prompt some consumers to trim spending in coming months’. Of late, robust Chinese export numbers have had investors demanding higher yielding growth currencies. Expect Chinese policy tightening to eventually cool the demand for the AUD as a ‘first play’ growth currency, but until then, the trend remains your friend. Last week the RBA hiked rates by +25bp to +4%. Governor Stevens said ‘rates should be closer to average’, which policy makers have indicated may be 75bp higher than the current +4%. The market expects the RBA to hike with a ‘gradual approach’. Continue to expect better buying on deeper pull backs (0.9178).

+ order book (check all these buy orders @ 0.9100)
Attached Image
  • #18,970
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:31am Mar 14, 2010 6:31am
If that pin gets broken to the downside will make for a Bearishly interesting week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,971
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:42am Mar 14, 2010 7:42am
Quoting MarcVUM
shahab8b, I didn't realize you had a thread going until I saw this post. Went over there to take a look and got hooked reading. Nice! I've always used this link: http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/o...on_ratios_beta
to help me figure out positions but I will add your thread to my research

Cheers
Hi MarcVUM, thanx for your comments , the idea of my thread is to combine sentiment (whether COT or SSI) with technical analysis , the results have been good so far and I'm working to improve some wrong bias that so many of us may have (like we expect an oversold /overbought market to reverse while sometimes the right thing is to sell in an oversold market and wait longer for the right moment to buy)
  • #18,972
  • Mar 14, 2010 8:18am Mar 14, 2010 8:18am
I still have a long position. I think AUDUSD may consolidate a bit before it resumes bullish movement.
  • #18,973
  • Mar 14, 2010 3:21pm Mar 14, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting shahab8b
the idea of my thread is to combine sentiment (whether COT or SSI) with technical analysis , the results have been good so far and I'm working to improve some wrong bias that so many of us may have (like we expect an oversold /overbought market to reverse while sometimes the right thing is to sell in an oversold market and wait longer for the right moment to buy)
hey shah.... have you given any thought in developing an ea with the data you mentioned above..... not sure of your personal stand reguarding ea's..... some people don't trust ea's..... while others, like me, don't trust themselves so trade exclusively with ea's......

//------

the aussie d weakend in the final hours last week.... if any conclusion can be drawn from that......h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie d.gif Size: 39 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #18,974
  • Mar 14, 2010 4:35pm Mar 14, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting hayseed
hey shah.... have you given any thought in developing an ea with the data you mentioned above..... not sure of your personal stand reguarding ea's..... some people don't trust ea's..... while others, like me, don't trust themselves so trade exclusively with ea's......

//------

the aussie d weakend in the final hours last week.... if any conclusion can be drawn from that......h
Hi , I'm fine with ea's although I use none , I need to think about the idea of what you said, first I need to write an algorithm to fit COT/SSI data into a model, at this moment I'm unsure of how doable that would be.
but talking about ea's I've written a Position trading+ Hedging (single pair) algorithm based on LSR indicator , I contacted one programmer here at FF to see if he can write the code for me (I can write codes visual basics and SAS but not MQL) ,but he disappointed me because the LSR indicator is a custom indicator ,do you have the experience in writing ea's?
  • #18,975
  • Mar 14, 2010 5:17pm Mar 14, 2010 5:17pm
hey shah.... actually i spend a truely unheathly amount of hours a day writing ea's and indicators.....

for my personal use and private groups.... and also forum members on public forums, such as ff.....

mine tend to be like none you have seen before.....h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: market view.gif Size: 55 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #18,976
  • Mar 14, 2010 5:24pm Mar 14, 2010 5:24pm
already set orders....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audmar14targetdaily.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #18,977
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:59pm Mar 14, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting ts63
From Oanda Fx blog :


+ order book (check all these buy orders @ 0.9100)

Do the green and blue colors represent anything?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #18,978
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:07pm Mar 14, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Do the green and blue colors represent anything?
From their "open orders" page:

Attached Image
  • #18,979
  • Mar 14, 2010 8:03pm Mar 14, 2010 8:03pm
quantity of long large specs in the CoT is very assuring to us peoples that are bullish on audusd
  • #18,980
  • Mar 14, 2010 8:24pm Mar 14, 2010 8:24pm
this curreny is highly over bought with no demand i think its going down for days if not weeks. my strategy is telling me so so use protection with longs. i loaded a couple of contracts be careful.
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