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Attachments: 7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #2,401
  • Mar 10, 2010 11:04am Mar 10, 2010 11:04am
Quoting masternico
hi,

Can someone explain to me those 3 trailing stop functions, the ea has?

thank you all
Sorry . . . Can't help you with that one. I use a different indicator and close trades mannually.

It was mentioned that this system tends to catch some reversal from the european session. I agree with this, many times this system allows a trader to catch the end of the previous session, right about the time the market is going to reverse. Many times when I have closed half and taken my 20 so pips off, and left the remaining half run . . . they get stopped out at B/E on a reversal. This is something I wrestle with, to close it all and take what I can, or close half . . . move the stop to B/E and hope for the best. Some times it works, some times not.

Today for instance, I closed half for +36, saw the market getting ready to reverse (5m, 15m, 1hr stoch's in overbought area), chickened out and closed the other half at +35. Should I have stayed in at this time of writing, price is down -30 from the point at which I took profit.

My opinion only, but I think this system is best for someone who can monitor their trades . . . cause the reversal can be swift, taking out whatever quick gain you made. I am usually out of the market within 3 hours of my initial order placement. Today, I was out within an hour and 45 miniutes. I feel that if you can not monitor and get out if the market "looks" like it might reverse, a higher time-frame might be best. Maybe a 1 or 4 hour breakout.

Also if you are watching and it looks like you can catch a quick reversal, you might as well . . . but then . . . this can be risky too.

Day:
.2 lots +36
Week:
+60
Month:
+170
  • #2,402
  • Mar 10, 2010 12:28pm Mar 10, 2010 12:28pm
Well said slc12312... It's always helpful to look at the bigger picture. Like hourly RSI or stochastic. I normally look at the chart without any indicator and try to get the feeling of overall trend.

Mine for the day:
Eur/Usd: +15
Usd/Chf: +15
Gbp/Usd: +15
Aud/Usd: +15
Total for day: +60

Total for the month to date: +225
Total trades for the month: 25 trades in total

My approach is very mechanical ( 15 pips TP and 15 pips stoploss)

However, I'm learning to look at the chart from the holistic point of view.

Thanks & Regards,
  • #2,403
  • Mar 10, 2010 1:08pm Mar 10, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting forex_fan
Mine for the day:
Eur/Usd: +15
Usd/Chf: +15
Gbp/Usd: +15
Aud/Usd: +15
Total for day: +60

Total for the month to date: +225
Total trades for the month: 25 trades in total

My approach is very mechanical ( 15 pips TP and 15 pips stoploss)

However, I'm learning to look at the chart from the holistic point of view.

Thanks & Regards,
Good Job!!

A few quick questions if you don't mind.
1. Are you trading both sides of the box? What do you do with the side that was not hit?
2. Are you using the 7am-9am NY TF?
3. What percent are you risking per trading session?
4. Do you close out everything at some point in time, or do you just let "fate" take its turn until the next trading day?

What I am doing seems to be working for me (at least for the past 6 weeks), but with that said, I have been toying with this:
1. Placing orders top and bottom with fixed 15 pip TP and SL
2. Letting orders run until the either TP or SL gets hit.
3. Repeating the next morning.

Is this somewhat similar to your method? Don't know if I'll try it, but it seems reasonable enough. I have been only trading one pair eur/usd, and have not ventured into other pairs as my $ management at this time will not allow me to trade over .1-.2 pips.

Congrats to you on your results so far for the month!!
  • #2,404
  • Mar 10, 2010 1:43pm Mar 10, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting slc12312
Good Job!!

A few quick questions if you don't mind.
1. Are you trading both sides of the box? What do you do with the side that was not hit?
2. Are you using the 7am-9am NY TF?
3. What percent are you risking per trading session?
4. Do you close out everything at some point in time, or do you just let "fate" take its turn until the next trading day?
1. I've so far not traded both sides or second breakout but if I would've, I would've covered all the losing trades. I'm thinking over it.

2. I use 7-9am with 15 mins TF.

3. Not more than 1.5% on each since I trade 4 pairs

4. I have the same way as you do. 15 points for TP and SL. and let it hit either way.


Quoting slc12312
Congrats to you on your results so far for the month!!
Thanks.

I hope to start taking 2nd trade if first one fails from tomorrow possibly.

Good day.
  • #2,405
  • Mar 10, 2010 3:56pm Mar 10, 2010 3:56pm
[quote=Agent-Pipen;3536640]This is interesting as when I started this system, I back-tested 7-9am and 8-10am both works. You have to just stick to one set of time frame. Since, they never work 100%.

i've only gone back 2 months, but my conclusion is that they are about even, in terms of success. I should also state i only looked at 3 pairs.
I think agent pipen is probably right, pick one or the other, stick to your rules.
It's Sod's law,but many days 7-9 would have failed, and 8-10 would have been profitable, and vice versa.
Good luck to all on the thread, but since i don't like babysitting trades, i think i'm done.
I think this method could be profitable, if you have a cohesive set of rules, and adhere to them. For me 15-20 pips is simply not viable, with the amount of effort needed, guess i'm just not a scalper.
All the best, hope you all rake in the pips.
  • #2,406
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:50am Mar 11, 2010 8:50am
I see in the original post that the times are 7am to 9am NY time. However, I later read that the time is an hour before the market opens and an hour after the market opens ...

Which one is it?

Thanks
  • #2,407
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:13am Mar 11, 2010 9:13am
Quoting aithin
I see in the original post that the times are 7am to 9am NY time. However, I later read that the time is an hour before the market opens and an hour after the market opens ...

Which one is it?

Thanks
It's 7AM - 9AM New York Time because market opens at 8am and if you read previous posts properly, you will find it.

Can I make it clear for everyone here, that the box we create is 7am-9am NEW YORK (EASTERN STANDARD TIME) according to the originator of the system.

I would urge everyone to look at previous posts before discussing regarding times any further.

I would like to see something productive than continuously discussing about time for the box.

I'm waiting eagerly for box to be broken So, lets get going and grab some pips.

Thanks & Regards,
  • #2,408
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:22am Mar 11, 2010 9:22am
Ive gotta say, i am a sucker for a breakout system....

Just wondered how you guys are handling your mm side of things? if its 15 pips TP And SL then surely this is gonna backfire....

Anyone find scaling into a postion helpful? hopefully preventing false breakouts or are you just using some kind of buffer each side of the box.

are poeple having luck with trading this on multiple pairs with usd? i was thinking the system was based around the psycology of the USD/GBP traders and lets face it the swings are as large in the smalled pairs....

T
  • #2,409
  • Mar 11, 2010 9:58am Mar 11, 2010 9:58am
Quoting Tea_trader
if its 15 pips TP And SL then surely this is gonna backfire....
Can you explain how??

Quoting Tea_trader
Anyone find scaling into a postion helpful? hopefully preventing false breakouts or are you just using some kind of buffer each side of the box.
It's always better to use buffer to confirm the breakout of the box otherwise you can be wiped easily from whipsaws.

I personally use 3-4 pips buffer depending on the box size.
  • #2,410
  • Mar 11, 2010 11:03am Mar 11, 2010 11:03am
Quoting aithin
I see in the original post that the times are 7am to 9am NY time. However, I later read that the time is an hour before the market opens and an hour after the market opens ...

Which one is it?

Thanks
I understand the basis of your question. As stated, the box should be between 7am-9am EST, after all it is the time frame for this thread. Your confusion might be because of some of my posts. I use a slightly different TF, but you should stick to the original 7-9am for a while until you have success (or not) with this system.

Aside from that, if you have set up your charts, you'll see that price is hovering within the box (at least on the eur/usd pair), right now it is a waiting game as on my chart the box is 61 pips top to bottom.
  • #2,411
  • Mar 11, 2010 1:35pm Mar 11, 2010 1:35pm
Seems like today, the third rule applied from page 1:

3. If the Distance between the high and low is more than 50-60 pips, it could be not very profitable.
  • #2,412
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:05pm Mar 11, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting AlexC
Seems like today, the third rule applied from page 1:

3. If the Distance between the high and low is more than 50-60 pips, it could be not very profitable.
Yes it could be that, but on the other hand, it could just be a case that the market is taking a break. When I look at the box sizes that I have had over the past 20 days, I can see that most fall within 43-50 pips or more.

I still place pending orders and then monitor them. Maybe they get hit, maybe they don't. So far today they have not, and most likely will not as it is an hour or so from the NY close . . . not enough volume. I have had boxes that were larger that worked out fine. I find the smaller the box, say 35 pips or so has had a tendency to trigger both sides on a retrace. This is why I will try to judge the flow on the 5m, 15m, and 1hr chart and place a pending order in that direction. On todays chart, there really wasn't any direction after the major movements that formed the box to begin with.
  • #2,413
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:38pm Mar 11, 2010 3:38pm
[quote=forex_fan;3542986]Can you explain how??

Just seems that without a good money managment system, it seems like more chance than anything else.
Them 15 pips could easily go against you on a bad day?

How you finding a target of 15pips? are you using the break out system on all usd pairs?

T
  • #2,414
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:11pm Mar 11, 2010 8:11pm
[quote=Tea_trader;3544003]
Quoting forex_fan
Can you explain how??

Just seems that without a good money managment system, it seems like more chance than anything else.
Them 15 pips could easily go against you on a bad day?

How you finding a target of 15pips? are you using the break out system on all usd pairs?

T
I use 15 pips in the expectation that my trades will have more than 50% winning ratio.

However, Nothing is 100% in the market. Only thing gets you going is continuous study of market and experience.

The logic behind the trade at box breakout is higher movement during this period which believed to give at least 15-20 pips in breaking direction.

Therefore, some use 15 pips, some use 20 pips in the forum.

I hope to it helps.

Meanwhile, today was extremely slow day.

2 pairs didn't even go outside the box and Eur/Chf gave -18 pips and Gbp/USD with the help of second trade gave +-0 pips.

Total for the month to date: 205 ( 30 trades).

Thanks & Regards,
  • #2,415
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:34am Mar 12, 2010 11:34am
[quote=Tea_trader;3544003]
Quoting forex_fan
Can you explain how??

Just seems that without a good money managment system, it seems like more chance than anything else.
Them 15 pips could easily go against you on a bad day?

How you finding a target of 15pips? are you using the break out system on all usd pairs?

T
Yes, using a straight 15 pip TP and 15 SL seems like you are flipping a coin. Yes it could go against you on a bad day too.

Forex Fan uses more than "guess work" when placing orders. Placing orders in the direction of the trend and not taking chances has a lot to do with it. We don't neccessarily need to place orders on top and bottom of a box, why do that if you can determine the trend?

For instance yesterday we had a rather large box of almost 62 pips. the rule says to be careful with large boxes as they may not be profitable. If you can determine the trend, should it really matter how large the box is? I placed a pending buy only, because to me, the higher time frames indicated potential upward movement. I used a 20 pip SL. Even though the box was large, I went for it based on what I saw, placed a TP at the first pivot point. Price ran to that point overnight and I ended up with 59 pips, while only risking 20 pips. In my trading, this does not happen very often, but it does go to show you that the box size rule is subjective, and so is order placement.

Good money managemnet and being subjective is what gives us the advantage. Forex Fan has done very well using this strategy.

For myself, I have only been trading the eur/usd pair. This system works for me. Check the system out, use good judgement when placing orders, USE good money management, don't risk more than you can afford to lose even if it is a demo.

3-12-10
+59 pips
For the Week:
+179 pips
Month:
+229 pips

13 trades, 11 winners, 2 losers. 84% winning trades.

A good winning percent, but understand I will get out very early if I think direction will change. I'd rather gain 5 pips than lose 5 pips. Preservation is key to me.

Good luck!!
  • #2,416
  • Mar 12, 2010 2:43pm Mar 12, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting slc12312

Yes, using a straight 15 pip TP and 15 SL seems like you are flipping a coin. Yes it could go against you on a bad day too.

For instance yesterday we had a rather large box of almost 62 pips. the rule says to be careful with large boxes as they may not be profitable. If you can determine the trend, should it really matter how large the box is? I placed a pending buy only, because to me, the higher time frames indicated potential upward movement. I used a 20 pip SL. Even though the box was large, I went for it based...
Well said!

I use this strategy in addition to my basic trading. I'm no professional but pivot points with PA is very important to decide the trend.

Sometimes it's too obvious to see the trend and direction & certainly we don't want to be bound in the box because market knows no box and doesn't know that we refer to it for our trading.

Subjective evaluation is key and that's the reason given same strategies, someone gains and the other person loses.

By the way, I didn't trade the box today since I had two positions open from last night.

Thanks & Regards,

[P.S. Congrats slc12312 - you're having an excellent ride with big dog.]
  • #2,417
  • Mar 13, 2010 12:09pm Mar 13, 2010 12:09pm
hi all,
i'm newbie in forex.

I want to learn this system, but first there are some things I want to ask:
1. Is there any additional indicators (like MA, etc) for open position?
2. breakout time is 7am-9am EST, so in my country (i live in indonesia), the time is 7pm-9pm GMT+7. Am I right? How about DST, should I change my breakout time?

thanks before for you're answer,
sam
  • #2,418
  • Mar 13, 2010 10:31pm Mar 13, 2010 10:31pm
Quoting feversam
hi all,
i'm newbie in forex.

I want to learn this system, but first there are some things I want to ask:
1. Is there any additional indicators (like MA, etc) for open position?
2. breakout time is 7am-9am EST, so in my country (i live in indonesia), the time is 7pm-9pm GMT+7. Am I right? How about DST, should I change my breakout time?

thanks before for you're answer,
sam
Sam
I have no idea regarding time zones. Just figure out what time 7am-9am EST (New York) is in relation to where you live and set your box parameters to display that time period. For myself, it's too confusing to figure out time zones in relation to geography, in relation to GMT shits and all of that.

As far as indicators go, that is just a matter of preference. I don't believe (not that I can recall) that there are indicators other than the box. I think most use stochastics or RSI to help determine entry. I use stoch's and trend to help determine when and even if I am going to enter.

Hope this helps. This is a very simple trading approach. Determine trend and use good money managment and you should be able to get it.

Good luck!
  • #2,419
  • Mar 14, 2010 4:28pm Mar 14, 2010 4:28pm
Hey Guys,

Hopefully gonna be doing so testing this week using the box/breakout system, bare with me and ill let you know how things turn out....

Happy Trading...
T
  • #2,420
  • Mar 15, 2010 6:04am Mar 15, 2010 6:04am
Quoting feversam
hi all,
i'm newbie in forex.

I want to learn this system, but first there are some things I want to ask:
1. Is there any additional indicators (like MA, etc) for open position?
2. breakout time is 7am-9am EST, so in my country (i live in indonesia), the time is 7pm-9pm GMT+7. Am I right? How about DST, should I change my breakout time?

thanks before for you're answer,
sam
1. You can use whatever help you to figure out trend to trade only with the trend, that can help you improve your chances.
2. I recommend you 2 websites that can help you to figure out Hours:
www.qlock.com
http://forex.timezoneconverter.com/
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