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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #10,641
  • Mar 13, 2010 2:46pm Mar 13, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting Sid
yesterday night five of us (sinan, stgeorge, lotuselanman, faxfax and myself) met in Shunt in london bridge. it's a place that can't be described easily ...........located in the old tunnel system of london bridge............
towards the end sinan and i were the last to stay behind for another drink and got chatting to a bunch of very animated (female) psychologists... until we finally parted ways.

i had a fantastic night! thank you guys for coming along! really looking forward to seeing you again!

cheers
sid
Thank you Sid for having the get-up-and-go to organise it.

Most enjoyable! Pity I left before the 'animated (female) psychologists' came on the scene -

Quote
i had a fantastic night!
and just how many did you get to go home with???
  • #10,642
  • Mar 13, 2010 2:59pm Mar 13, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting patrick25
Audcad:

Weekly: Trend is up. Price is sitting at support level and 50.
Next week will see price if price holds.

Worker: Sentiment is down due to HL and LL to support level.
Price is going sidway in triangle and 20&50 is close together
expecting a big move. Will let price proves that it wants to go
up again another word up sentiment before positioning with the
Boss. Next support will be .8850 level.
On my chart I've got a S at 9280 and then 9225. For 'full stress-free' trading the safest would be to wait for the test at those two levels IMO.

Then you've got a clearer run to 9120 and 9020.

Good luck.
  • #10,643
  • Mar 13, 2010 3:10pm Mar 13, 2010 3:10pm
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting Lou
Sid,

I see your London get together attracted a lot of people. But I thought you said you guys met in London Bridge !
  • #10,644
  • Mar 13, 2010 3:23pm Mar 13, 2010 3:23pm
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting Lotuselanman
Thank you Sid for having the get-up-and-go to organise it.

Most enjoyable! Pity I left before the 'animated (female) psychologists' came on the scene -

and just how many did you get to go home with???
hahaha, well... sinan stole them all
  • #10,645
  • Mar 13, 2010 5:05pm Mar 13, 2010 5:05pm
Quoting patrick25
Audcad:

Weekly: Trend is up. Price is sitting at support level and 50.
Next week will see price if price holds.

Worker: Sentiment is down due to HL and LL to support level.
Price is going sidway in triangle and 20&50 is close together
expecting a big move. Will let price proves that it wants to go
up again another word up sentiment before positioning with the
Boss. Next support will be .8850 level.
Yeah, I've been wondering about this one.Looks like a triangle wanting to break down...Yet the trend is up.....

On the weekly, I still see the influence of the previous week's BEEB, plus a spinning top with a long wick up.

Instead of support there I drew a wee trendline, which seems to reinforce the 50 and a fib line. So, lotsa support?

Daily still shows the triangle, well defined. So, maybe no trade yet but one to watch

Spinner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,646
  • Mar 13, 2010 9:36pm Mar 13, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
How far you pullback for your s/r level?

We go back in history as far as we can! The most reliable S/R levels are ones that have been respected for many many years.

How you determine the trend changed? Let say from down trend(short) to up trend(long)

This should answer Q #3 as well, yes we use HH HL LL LH to determine trend direction and trend changes but you must understand that as you go up in TF's there are trends within trends within trends.
Hi CrudeCraig,

Thanks for your reply.

If i pull back the history to very long time, it will be a lot of s/r lines, some of them is quite near to each other. Do you have any idea how i eliminate so many lines?

If we depend on hh/hl to determine the trend changed, what is the major function of trendline?Attached with the ej h4 chart, i consider the trend changed if the price broke the blue line, am i correct?

Anyway, i really appreciate your reply.



Thanks
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  • #10,647
  • Mar 13, 2010 10:00pm Mar 13, 2010 10:00pm
Quoting strat
You must be looking and not "SEEING". I don't see anything long on this chart. The next move I see is another test of 89.00

Look at the highs of 3/10, 1/29, 12/18, 12/4

Look at the close/open of 2/3&4

Look at the lows of 1/12, 13 &14

Can you "SEE" what these tell you?
(My first attempt to attach charts, so please bear with me if I screw up..)

Strat is picking "another test of 89.00", Alexandra sticking with the upside (hope i am not misinterprting your posts, Alexandra).

This is what I "SEE" ;
Big Boss

Action contained within the Dec "controlling bar" . While this bar was bullish, no upside break has occured yet - so, expect moves within 86.27 to 93.13 range. Need a break of either to confirm the downtrend still in place or a (possible) change to upside. Down trendline firmly in place on the monthly timeframe:[ATTACH]438873[/ATTACH

Boss

doji formed at the close on friday - indecision. Doji tested the down trendline but price rejected. Weekly close was below the boss 20ema. Price contained within the (bearish) "controlling bar" of week starting 21 feb
88.73 to 91.89. Expect a test next week of either end of the bar.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Worker

Since the high on 3 feb and the low on 4 feb, we have seen a HH followed by a LL - nothing to indicate direction. While a test of 89 is obviously possible, price has closed above the W20 since5march and has currently closed above the W50.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Conclusion I think i can see why Strat is saying there could be a test of 89. What I cant see is why he says " next move I see is another test of 89.00".
I get the "feeling" that we should be watching this pair for a trade, but think there is no PA to go long and insufficient risk:return to go short next week looking for 89.

Appreciate any advice, interpretation or just plain old public floggings if I 9unintentionally) incur Strat's wrath..
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  • #10,648
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:42pm Mar 13, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
On my chart I've got a S at 9280 and then 9225. For 'full stress-free' trading the safest would be to wait for the test at those two levels IMO.

Then you've got a clearer run to 9120 and 9020.

Good luck.
I think 9265 is a strong support level with 50 below. If price be able to break through then even better we have more room to work with. For 'full stress-free' trading the safest I think would be to wait for price proves support and starts going up again. Thanks Lotuselanman.
  • #10,649
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:49pm Mar 13, 2010 11:49pm
Quoting Spinner
Yeah, I've been wondering about this one.Looks like a triangle wanting to break down...Yet the trend is up.....

On the weekly, I still see the influence of the previous week's BEEB, plus a spinning top with a long wick up.

Instead of support there I drew a wee trendline, which seems to reinforce the 50 and a fib line. So, lotsa support?

Daily still shows the triangle, well defined. So, maybe no trade yet but one to watch

Spinner
Yes Spinner, this is definitely the one to watch because we have the Boss trend is up and Worker is on retracement. We will watch and learn real time when the two line up 'Strat stress free trading'.
  • #10,650
  • Mar 14, 2010 1:08am Mar 14, 2010 1:08am
Quoting Sid
See the pattern?

Here is what I learned from it - when you see a weirdo, wait for the fat guy to join him, and see if that pulls in more people, then join the party...

and then they say it's best to leave a party on a high...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA8z7...ayer_embedded#
Hi Sidhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Great video. How often did we get into a trade following such a 'fat guy' on the lower timeframes. Sidelines is a very dangerous place.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #10,651
  • Mar 14, 2010 3:27am Mar 14, 2010 3:27am
Quoting chanlf
Hi CrudeCraig,

Thanks for your reply.

If i pull back the history to very long time, it will be a lot of s/r lines, some of them is quite near to each other. Do you have any idea how i eliminate so many lines?

If we depend on hh/hl to determine the trend changed, what is the major function of trendline?Attached with the ej h4 chart, i consider the trend changed if the price broke the blue line, am i correct?

Anyway, i really appreciate your reply.



Thanks
For your questions on S/R drawing see the 6 or so posts by blackeagle that are linked on the first post of this thread by strat.

I know that the thread is getting very long but make sure you read and understand each post as the answers to your questions have been discussed in the thread a few times already.

Also we are not trading H4 charts here daily weekly and monthly only!
  • #10,652
  • Mar 14, 2010 4:02am Mar 14, 2010 4:02am
Quoting Sid
yesterday night five of us (sinan, stgeorge, lotuselanman, faxfax and myself) met in shunt in london bridge. it's a place that can't be described easily - some of my associations: peaceful, huuuuuge, dungeon-like, arty, friendly, intriguing, dark, playful, spacious - located in the old tunnel system of london bridge.

we were a pretty mixed bunch of people (ages from 30 to 68) and were all relieved to find out that our shared nightmares about potentially meeting some complete tossers had not come true.

it was rather the very opposite...

we...

Hey Sid,

Tried to come on Friday - but bl**dy trains to Marylebone were cancelled.

Sounds like I missed a good night - I'm definitely up for the next one tho.
  • #10,653
  • Mar 14, 2010 5:50am Mar 14, 2010 5:50am
Quoting CrudeCraig
For your questions on S/R drawing see the 6 or so posts by blackeagle that are linked on the first post of this thread by strat.

I know that the thread is getting very long but make sure you read and understand each post as the answers to your questions have been discussed in the thread a few times already.

Also we are not trading H4 charts here daily weekly and monthly only!
Hi CrudeCraig,

Thanks for your reply. I will read the thread and try to understand it.


Thanks
  • #10,654
  • Edited 11:05am Mar 14, 2010 10:09am | Edited 11:05am
Today I was looking at the fascinating gbp charts and noticed that price in the cable daily had gone faraway from the 100 (In my case lwma as it's the one i'm used to). I remembered something I read last week in the Index about rubber bands, and how it might be interesting to make a study of how much they stretched.

Last week it stretched 1230 pips (lowest price to my 100 lwma).

I went to the beginning of my data (1999) and started measuring longest distances. I chose to measure only the ones that were longer than 1000 pips (this was arbitrary) and off I went.

These are the results (probably very imperfect):

MOnth/year>>pips

02/04: 1173
12/04: 1140
07/05: 1085
05/06: 1250
09/08: 1739
10/08: 1750
10/08: 2800
11/08: 2800 These were the big subprime drop
12/08: 1546
01/09: 1765
06/09: 1718
06/09: 1468
03/10: 1230
Total 21464>>> average 1652 pips

Total without the ones in bold type 12377 pips average 1375 pips.

Of course this would have to be done for al pairs......:nerd:

Any ideas?? Can this concept be of any use?

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,655
  • Mar 14, 2010 2:20pm Mar 14, 2010 2:20pm
Trading success comes to those who overcome their
persistent desire to break the following trading rules.


1) I establish trades based on my edges.

Trading success requires that we have "edges" over the market. One of the essential edges is that we open and close our trades at areas of either Support or Resistance.

The Support & Resistance Report objectively identifies areas of Gathering Support (where buyers are likely to regain control from sellers and push prices back up) and areas of Gathering Resistance (where sellers are likely to regain control from buyers and press prices back down).

2) I predefine the risk of every trade by establishing a maximum amount that I am willing to lose on it.

Because the market is an uncertain place, no matter how good a trade looks, it can turn into a loser.

Predefining the risk of every trade, therefore, is the only way to prevent a small loss from turning into a big one.

One big loss can wipe out the profits of five successful trades. Trading success, therefore, requires that we take small losses.

3) I completely accept the risk or I bypass the trade.

There's a big difference between pre-defining our risk and accepting the pre-defined risk. The tendency is to hold on to a losing trade because it's painful to lock in a loss.

Trading success, however, requires acceptance of the fact that not every trade will be a winner.

If our predefined risk is reached, we must close the trade and move on to a better one. If, instead, we hesitate, rationalize or hope for things to turn around, then we have not accepted the risk that's unavoidable in the market; and refusing to accept something that's unavoidable will lead to one crisis after another.

4) I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.

"Edges" are those aspects of a trading strategy that result in profits over a large sample of trades. We cannot know whether the next trade will be a winner or not. What we can know, however, is that over the next 20, 30 or 40 trades, we will be profitable because of the "edges" we employ.

A casino doesn't know who will win the next hand of Blackjack and so, it doesn't worry about it. The casino does know, however, that it will be profitable over the next 50 hands of Blackjack because of its edge. Trading success requires the same approach.

5) I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.

Every winning trade comes to a time when it has played itself out and it's time to exit.

Trading success requires that we exit a purchase at Resistance (where sellers are likely to regain control from buyers and press prices back down); and that we exit a short-sale at Support (where buyers are likely to regain control from sellers and push prices back up).

6) I understand the absolute necessity of these Trading Rules to my trading success and, therefore, I never violate them.
  • #10,656
  • Mar 14, 2010 2:32pm Mar 14, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting Sid
yesterday night five of us (sinan, stgeorge, lotuselanman, faxfax and myself) met in shunt in london bridge. it's a place that can't be described easily - some of my associations: peaceful, huuuuuge, dungeon-like, arty, friendly, intriguing, dark, playful, spacious - located in the old tunnel system of london bridge.

we were a pretty mixed bunch of people (ages from 30 to 68) and were all relieved to find out that our shared nightmares about potentially meeting some complete tossers had not come true.

it was rather the very opposite...

we...

i am sorry guys that i missed it. i hope we will organise another one soon.
  • #10,657
  • Mar 14, 2010 5:02pm Mar 14, 2010 5:02pm
[quote=kratun;3549569]Trading success comes to those who overcome their
persistent desire to break the following trading rules.


1) I establish trades based on my edges.



2) I predefine the risk of every trade by establishing a maximum amount that I am willing to lose on it.



3) I completely accept the risk or I bypass the trade.



4) I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.


5) I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.



6) I understand the absolute necessity of these Trading Rules to my trading success and, therefore, I never violate them.[/QUOT


Thanks for the reminder. I remember reading that book too. In fact, I think I had these rules stuck up in the wall and never read them. Not good.

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,658
  • Edited 5:45pm Mar 14, 2010 5:12pm | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting trogger
(My first attempt to attach charts, so please bear with me if I screw up..)

Strat is picking "another test of 89.00", Alexandra sticking with the upside (hope i am not misinterprting your posts, Alexandra).

This is what I "SEE" ;
Big Boss

Action contained within the Dec "controlling bar" . While this bar was bullish, no upside break has occured yet - so, expect moves within 86.27 to 93.13 range. Need a break of either to confirm the downtrend still in place or a (possible) change to upside. Down trendline firmly in place...

I like that analysis actually......the picture is mixed. Technically, the failure at the trendline shoul be respected; for some reason, I don't respect it. Hmmmmm.

A dogi like that needs confirmation; so far, we do not have it.
  • #10,659
  • Mar 14, 2010 5:44pm Mar 14, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting chanlf
Hi CrudeCraig,

Thanks for your reply. I will read the thread and try to understand it.


Thanks
Blackeagles excellent posts have been collected together in the Index I believe. That might make things easier.

Good luck.
  • #10,660
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:08pm Mar 14, 2010 6:08pm
In my opinion i see an oportunity on E/G. M-up,but in range of SS from 10.2009,and BEEB from12.2009. W-makes LH and in range of bond SS from 02.28.2010.(controlling candle).W is also inside of triangle. D-rejected by 91.50(R),double top formed,so i will look the P.A. for a short trade.
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My humble opinion.
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