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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #421
  • Mar 12, 2010 10:44am Mar 12, 2010 10:44am
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...erland.svg.png UBS AG:

EURSEK: Forecast change (March 12, 2010, 2:25 PM)
We lower our EURSEK forecast to 9.75 (previously 9.90) in three months, to 9.60 (9.75) in six months and to 9.50 (9.60) in twelve months. A more hawkish Riksbank and the strong fiscal position of Sweden bodes well with our long-term positive on the Swedish krona.
CHF: Forecast change (March 12, 2010, 11:24 AM)
We lower our EURCHF forecast to 1.44, 1.42, 1.42 (previously 1.48, 1.50, 1.52) and USDCHF forecast to 1.07, 1.00, 0.93 (previously 1.10, 1.06, 0.99) for three, six and twelve months. We expect the SNB to tolerate a slightly stronger franc going forward, due to solid Swiss economic data.
  • #422
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:06am Mar 12, 2010 11:06am
What do you think the annex?
Do I realize my professional and 50/100 profit monthly or not
Please tell me how open the subject of a special offer you the easy way to win the forex game
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  • #423
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:31am Mar 12, 2010 11:31am
Quoting رياد ايهم
What do you think the annex?
Do I realize my professional and 50/100 profit monthly or not
Please tell me how open the subject of a special offer you the easy way to win the forex game
I'm not sure if I understand you correctly. would you mind explaining what you mean?
  • #424
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:36am Mar 12, 2010 11:36am
you are too danged polite

Quoting shahab8b
I'm not sure if I understand you correctly. would you mind explaining what you mean?
  • #425
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:58am Mar 12, 2010 11:58am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi victory I just saw your post,
well SSI is a contrarian tool and as I mentioned earlier you need to treat it differently from COT ,as COT is a market mover and SSI is not, when you see that all the retail trader are long U/Cad it means the price will fall further but once in a while retailers are right like on Jan 15th but they weren't lucky this time, you can find the difference by looking at PA, as /i mentioned yesterday, price doesn't like S/R level when it is hanging around them for a while it means the chance of break out is high, like what...
Quoting Patience
Hi Victory83

You are correct. More traders were long USD/CAD so SSI did not work well that day. I just noticed that PA on USDX 4 hour chart was sitting right on 200 SMA on 15 January as well so it was make it or break it.
thank you guys
  • #426
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:35pm Mar 12, 2010 1:35pm
Thank you shahab and patience for all your work bringing us the positioning. This thread has become a very important tool as a one stop sentiment analysis thread. I did well out of the Loonie this week as you guys alerted me to the extreme positioning in this pair. Technically there is no way I would have shorted at that level but my eyes have been opened to the value of sentiment. I think there is a real edge provided by this thread and that would make it one of only a very few here
Very well done!
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  • #427
  • Mar 12, 2010 2:02pm Mar 12, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Thank you shahab and patience for all your work bringing us the positioning. This thread has become a very important tool as a one stop sentiment analysis thread. I did well out of the Loonie this week as you guys alerted me to the extreme positioning in this pair. Technically there is no way I would have shorted at that level but my eyes have been opened to the value of sentiment. I think there is a real edge provided by this thread and that would make it one of only a very few here
Very well done!
thank you M.A.C.Doug, for your nice comments, as you said SSI U/Cad extreme positing (as a contrarian tool) warns of an imminent breakout , which finally happened , I'm glad that this thread has been helpful, although I opened the thread but most of the credits go to Patience for her brilliant knowledge and experience.
  • #428
  • Mar 12, 2010 3:15pm Mar 12, 2010 3:15pm
Pending Buy limit Order USDCHF
at 1.0515 SL= 1.0415 TP=TBD
reason:
1-R turns S
2-38% fib
3-TL
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  • #429
  • Edited 8:41pm Mar 12, 2010 8:17pm | Edited 8:41pm
A/U COT report and COT index,

Large institute added to their net long A/U positions from 48,761 to 61,285 contracts, the COT index reading is now 95 (close to bullish extreme) ,
this development indicates that we are getting close to a top but I think there is a potential for A/U to go higher before it tops
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  • #430
  • Mar 12, 2010 8:34pm Mar 12, 2010 8:34pm
what difference a week makes,
CADUSD (inverse of U/C) net long contract have been increased from 38,289 to 61,399 contacts (record high in two years) , note that open interests are 109,991 high , COT index is 100 (bullish extreme for CADUSD and bearish for U/C) , I guess we are in the process of developing a bottom,
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  • #431
  • Mar 13, 2010 5:14am Mar 13, 2010 5:14am
Quoting shahab8b
Patience, would you mind posting the latest SSI report today, I'd like to see how retailers reacted to 1.02 break on U/Cad
Well, well, well - go the Loonie Wasn't around to witness the break but I suppose everything was pointing to it - charts said down, sentiment said down, small range for the week. Well done M.A.C.Doug for capitalising on it.

FXCM didn't post a reading last night. Must have been busy. It happens occasionally. Oanda's open position ratios are saying 72.11% are still long USD/CAD though. http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/o...on_ratios_beta

Quoting shahab8b
thank you M.A.C.Doug, for your nice comments, as you said SSI U/Cad extreme positing (as a contrarian tool) warns of an imminent breakout , which finally happened , I'm glad that this thread has been helpful, although I opened the thread but most of the credits go to Patience for her brilliant knowledge and experience.
Ha, ha - you are kidding right (but thank you anyway). If I had a quarter of your knowledge I'd be laughing. Happy to see that you are being recognised as a trader to be listened to and no doubt your account is thanking you Will have a squiz at charts and other things over the weekend and see if anything hits me in the face or is worth posting. I see indices closed on their highs too. Looks like the Yen carry trade might be back in play to me - could be the year end repatriation of funds that is holding U/J back at the moment.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #432
  • Mar 13, 2010 7:10am Mar 13, 2010 7:10am
net short positions were increased to record low of 74,551 and COT index 0 (bearish extreme) , no wonder why we saw the sharp correction higher.
if you have been following my thread you know I mentioned 3-4 weeks ago, this extreme one sided positioning + the consolidation pattern should lead to a sharp correction higher (I use the reflexivity theory by G.Soros) -so for now we should see higher level for a while

I saw so many people seeing this pattern as a "Round Bottom" and they say we saw a three wave decline form the top- the whole decline was a correction- and then we will go above 1.51 again ,
BUT this is not what I think , I think this upward move is a correction to longer term down trend- I think we easily can see 1.3845- 1.40 or even 1.42 but that's the max- we will go down again -lower than 1.34.
I see all the level I wrote on my chart as potential selling opportunity.
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  • #433
  • Mar 13, 2010 7:20am Mar 13, 2010 7:20am
Quoting Patience



Ha, ha - you are kidding right (but thank you anyway). If I had a quarter of your knowledge I'd be laughing. Happy to see that you are being recognised as a trader to be listened to and no doubt your account is thanking you Will have a squiz at charts and other things over the weekend and see if anything hits me in the face or is worth posting. I see indices closed on their highs too. Looks like the Yen carry trade might be back in play to me - could be the year end repatriation of funds that is holding U/J back at the moment.
thank you patience, you know that I always try to learn new things from great traders like you, Geppyg ,DT and a few others.
  • #434
  • Mar 13, 2010 8:06am Mar 13, 2010 8:06am
NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - Currency speculators' trimmed bets in favor of the dollar for the second straight week and raised bets against the euro to a record, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.

The value of the dollar's net long position fell to $3.99 billion in the week ended March 9, from $5.58 billion in the prior week, according to Reuters data.

Speculators boosted bets against the euro to a record 74,551 contracts, according to Reuters data.

The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar position is derived from the net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.
  • #435
  • Mar 13, 2010 7:15pm Mar 13, 2010 7:15pm
U/J to my surprise Long contracts in JPYUSD (inverse short U/J) were not decreased substantially ,the large institutes are net long JPYUSD (short U/J) with 26,288, ( a bit decreased from 32,552 last week)
I think there is more downside potential for U/J ,
I'll sell at the current level and will add the upward move as far as the price is in the downward TL and fib levels (my short entry on last Fri missed by 9 pips, due t0 my wrong sell limit order- I placed the order on weekly R1 (91.17) instead of placing the sell order at 50% fib level (91.08) )
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  • #436
  • Edited 3:35am Mar 14, 2010 3:23am | Edited 3:35am
Quoting Patience
Oanda's open position ratios are saying 72.11% are still long USD/CAD though.
I think it is interesting to note that according to Oandas stats, Aussie long positions are now at 55%. I think shahab8b .9190 entry could have nailed the turn although I wouldnt be surprised to see price blow off higher, taking out a few more short stops and sucking in a few more longs before turning. The daily chart is showing a reversal cluster at resistence as price has definetly stalled for now. Oanda samples hourly so that positioning could change but I think it is definetly worth keeping an eye on. It will be interesting to see what the COT and SSI reveal this week. A decent retrace would be very good at the moment
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  • #437
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:46am Mar 14, 2010 7:46am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I think it is interesting to note that according to Oandas stats, Aussie long positions are now at 55%. I think shahab8b .9190 entry could have nailed the turn although I wouldnt be surprised to see price blow off higher, taking out a few more short stops and sucking in a few more longs before turning. The daily chart is showing a reversal cluster at resistence as price has definetly stalled for now. Oanda samples hourly so that positioning could change but I think it is definetly worth keeping an eye on. It will be interesting to see what the COT...
hi M.A.C.Doug, thanx for your nice chart, what do you think of those daily candles (the last 3) on A/U?
  • #438
  • Edited 8:17am Mar 14, 2010 8:05am | Edited 8:17am
G/U
large institute are still very short on G/U however the net shorts were reduced a bit from 67,549 to 63,473 contracts - to my surprise the open interests were increased to 148,562 (two year record high) , COT index during last week and the week before were 8 and 0. on the 2nd chart look at the Long/Short Ratio on G/U which was less than 0.2 ( shorts 5 times than longs)
Last week I mentioned the chance of a correction to the upside in G/U is high due to overcrowded of the bear side, that happened eventually,
I think considering the extreme positioning there is more room for upward correction maybe up to 1.55-7 , but the downtrend will resume after re-test of S>R of the diamond top around 1.57

Edit: long/short last week was= 1.14 it means Shorts/Longs was 7.09
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  • #439
  • Mar 14, 2010 8:33am Mar 14, 2010 8:33am
Do u think gu will go down on Monday and Tuesday and than resuming upward move?
Thanks
  • #440
  • Mar 14, 2010 8:55am Mar 14, 2010 8:55am
Quoting bonus76
Do u think gu will go down on Monday and Tuesday and than resuming upward move?
Thanks
I'm unsure of that but I think G/U will hit 1.57 in a week or two
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