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AUD/USD

  • #18,941
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:28pm Mar 12, 2010 12:28pm
Be careful shorters, carry trade strategies are back.
High yield currencies like AUD are favored by most hedge funds and banks now that volatility has considerably fallen.
Better be long AUD/XXX currencies and short XXX/AUD.
I'm flat at the moment but my medium term target for AU is 0.97 (SL 0.89).
  • #18,942
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:36pm Mar 12, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Thanks 9000rpm. This is why I say down...
Wouldn't that be an ascending triangle?
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...ing_triangle_c
  • #18,943
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:40pm Mar 12, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting doblece
Wouldn't that be an ascending triangle?
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...ing_triangle_c

I've seen these things go both ways. I've even seen a breakout and then a complete reversal. Not exactly the most accurate pattern.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #18,944
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:52pm Mar 12, 2010 12:52pm
from a ball and a glove to there falling love they do everything heart and soul...thats how country boys roll
Annoying Precision
  • #18,945
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:00pm Mar 12, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I've seen these things go both ways. I've even seen a breakout and then a complete reversal. Not exactly the most accurate pattern.
an ascending triangle has a 70% probability of an upward breakout with 75% meeting the measured distance between the base and apex of triangle.
  • #18,946
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:03pm Mar 12, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
well almost definetly a spike one way or the other and not much happening before the release. News may surprise to the upside.





yes we are still holding and your right there is likely at least a little more pain to come however I have hedged my Aussie shorts with Loonie shorts. I am effectively short AUD/CAD and it has earnt pips. I got the idea from reading this thread so thanks to Warwick and others for the Loonie analysis. The position will tend to benefit from positive US news because of the CAD-US link. Im hoping to grab another 50 pips...
Hi M.A.C.Doug, for correlation (if you hedge two pairs) you can use this site
http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/correlation
  • #18,947
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:06pm Mar 12, 2010 1:06pm
we are done for the week, but I see higher price for this pair as U/Cad has broken the S line at 1.02 , I'll try to short this pair in .9233- 9250 R zone next week
  • #18,948
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:17pm Mar 12, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting ozpips
I've been monitoring USD/CAD , looks very bearish indeed.If it doesn't stop at 1.0175 being the retracement of the 22-26feb bottom-top then parity is looking like a reality.
I think the news will decide the looney's imminent destiny soon.
nice work - I semi hedged my losing short AUD/USD positions with short USD/CAD positions based on analysis here on FF. I usually pay no attention to this pair but this strategy has worked a treat. Thanks to all, especially shahab for your brilliant C.O.T thread which alerted me to the extreme positioning on the Loonie. This experience has been a real eye opener on the relevance of sentiment
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #18,949
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:20pm Mar 12, 2010 1:20pm
Thought I'd throw these up. I'm Mildly Bearish right now. BTW that is not my sell on those charts, just using IKON MT4 MAM on a strategy window. Lines fit nice.
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  • #18,950
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:57pm Mar 12, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
nice work - I semi hedged my losing short AUD/USD positions with short USD/CAD positions based on analysis here on FF. I usually pay no attention to this pair but this strategy has worked a treat. Thanks to all, especially shahab for your brilliant C.O.T thread which alerted me to the extreme positioning on the Loonie. This experience has been a real eye opener on the relevance of sentiment
shahab8b, I didn't realize you had a thread going until I saw this post. Went over there to take a look and got hooked reading. Nice! I've always used this link: http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/o...on_ratios_beta
to help me figure out positions but I will add your thread to my research

Cheers
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #18,951
  • Mar 12, 2010 2:20pm Mar 12, 2010 2:20pm
Still roughly two hours to go until the close but... if it should end this way, seems a good perspective for shorts next week...

Bar view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Bearish rising wedge on Daily, doji and pinbar.

Candle view
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Would probably at least retest the lows at 0.8800, (roughly 61.8 retracement from 8575 to 9193).
  • #18,952
  • Mar 12, 2010 2:23pm Mar 12, 2010 2:23pm
This formation has slightly more credibility then the m5 "trend reversal" charts that were posted

Quoting doblece
Still roughly two hours to go until the close but... if it should end this way, seems a good perspective for shorts next week...

Bar view
Attachment

Bearish rising wedge on Daily, doji and pinbar.

Candle view
Attachment

Would probably at least retest the lows at 0.8800, (roughly 61.8 retracement from 8575 to 9193).
Annoying Precision
  • #18,953
  • Mar 12, 2010 2:50pm Mar 12, 2010 2:50pm
Everyone trade depends on his view with (TF & MM)
I could be wrong but this my view
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  • #18,954
  • Mar 12, 2010 4:40pm Mar 12, 2010 4:40pm
...why is it that COT data wasn't updated while chart has?

Last week's COT chart

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This week's COT chart

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It's a little hard to believe there has been no change at all?
  • #18,955
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:07pm Mar 12, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting Clouds
same price everyday
A wise man said once:

"...BEFORE you can enter a trade in the opposite direction, PRICE has to STOP going in its original direction. This is BEFORE PRICE moves in the opposite direction. It has to STOP going in its original direction.

 PRICE cannot go in the opposite direction UNTIL it has STOPPED going in its original direction. When we see that PRICE has STOPPED, we look for signs that PRICE is going in the opposite direction.

Many times, (but not always), PRICE will go into consolidation after a big move, especially a big move down. PRICE will STOP going down but may not start going up again. We need to “SEE” and must always look for those signs to tell us that PRICE is now moving in the opposite direction...."
  • #18,956
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:12pm Mar 12, 2010 5:12pm
if i could give you a voucher i would....some people (no one in particular) need to understand this, it took me a while (im still learning it :-)

Quoting Fusion
A wise man said once:

"...BEFORE you can enter a trade in the opposite direction, PRICE has to STOP going in its original direction. This is BEFORE PRICE moves in the opposite direction. It has to STOP going in its original direction.

[font=Arial][color=royalblue][size=3]PRICE cannot go in the opposite direction UNTIL it has STOPPED going in its original direction. When we see that PRICE has...
Annoying Precision
  • #18,957
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:43pm Mar 12, 2010 5:43pm
quite a bit of activity on USD/CAD.. anyone have an impression?
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #18,958
  • Mar 12, 2010 6:33pm Mar 12, 2010 6:33pm
General view

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Detailed view
A double top and a confirmed pinbar, however it is not clear if the wedge has already been broken, and definitely the pitchfork isn't broken yet. Neither have we a lower low by now to confirm the bearish views.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Here's another H4 chart with my speculations about the probable scenarios that we could be facing next week. Tags are numbered, hopefully not too much confused for viewing...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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scenario 1
A break of wedge and pitchfork down to recent lows, bounce for a retest of broken level (actual support) making the right shoulder of a H&S which head projection would give about 0.9025 as target.

scenario 2
A break of wedge and pitchfork, subsequently breaking recent lows, then retesting those and making a right shoulder of a broader H&S which head projection would give about 0.8912 as target (could also be well supported at the 0.8977 / 0.9000 range - see march 4 consolidation).

scenario 3
Wedge break, down to recent lows, and bounce higher to about 0.9245/50 (which is roughly 127.2 extension of swing from 0.8800 to 0.9193, and round number).

Another scenario could be a last attempt to squeeze the remaining shorts and would rise to around 9200/9210 (round number).

What I don't like: rounded bottom on Daily EURUSD which could give way to a break upwards and thus would most probably drag the Aussie along.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,959
  • Mar 12, 2010 7:30pm Mar 12, 2010 7:30pm
Quoting england33
quite a bit of activity on USD/CAD.. anyone have an impression?
Lately, loonie is best performing currency wrt USD.
Good fundamentals from Ottawa.

I am looking at parity.
  • #18,960
  • Mar 12, 2010 8:07pm Mar 12, 2010 8:07pm
Doblece, I see what you see... as I posted earlier today. IMO, she is going to take a vacation down from these endless days of higher and higher and higher. It may not be a long vacation before she resumes upwards (maybe a day or two) but its seems somethings got to give (even with so many long positions out there). If she breaks that TL on the 4hr I'll be a seller.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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