Acually Im short GBPJPY at 202.41
- #262
- Dec 28, 2005 10:41pm Dec 28, 2005 10:41pm
Hi,
Thanks for your reply.
I was taking both primary and secondary trades. Entry at close of 4hr bar at the close price. I was hoping to duplicate the original results without any tweaks.
I'll have a look and put the tweak of +/-20 from the neutral line and report back.
Thanks again for doing the backtest.
Best regards
Alan
I've done a partial backtest for the second period. I got 2469 pips just through March 9th. Just eyeballing the charts I can see I would get more through the end of the sell cycle at 5/21/04. I would have done the whole period but I've got inlaws wanting feeding so I've got to go. I did this kind of quickly so be wary of any errors I might have made.
Are you taking both primary and secondary signals? If you take just the primaries, you'll miss out on a lot of pips.
FYI, I entered my "trades" 20 pips beyond the neutral line, and exited either when a fib level was hit or price moved 20 pips beyond the neutral line in the opposite direction.
Dial
I was taking both primary and secondary trades. Entry at close of 4hr bar at the close price. I was hoping to duplicate the original results without any tweaks.
I'll have a look and put the tweak of +/-20 from the neutral line and report back.
Thanks again for doing the backtest.
Best regards
Alan
- #263
- Dec 28, 2005 11:02pm Dec 28, 2005 11:02pm
- Joined Sep 2004 | Status: Trader | 1,464 Posts
Hi,Thanks for your reply.
I was taking both primary and secondary trades. Entry at close of 4hr bar at the close price. I was hoping to duplicate the original results without any tweaks.
I'll have a look and put the tweak of +/-20 from the neutral line and report back.
Thanks again for doing the backtest.
Best regards
Alan
Dial
P.S. The date of the second trade in the spreadsheet is wrong. It should be 1-28 instead of 1-27.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
- #265
- Dec 29, 2005 12:03am Dec 29, 2005 12:03am
- Joined Sep 2004 | Status: Trader | 1,464 Posts
I can't seem to get it one good trade on this in the last week.
Gotta keep trying!
Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
- #266
- Dec 29, 2005 2:05am Dec 29, 2005 2:05am
Hi,
Move over HeavyJ, I'm about to take over your title for being a boneheaded trader
:
Thanks again Diallist for your backtested results, it gives me something to compare against.
Boneheaded point No.1
As I understand it, the value of the weekly momentum only 'finalises' at the end of the week and until the market closes on Fri, I would not know the value of the momentum for that week, so I could not trade mon-fri based on the close of the momentum of that week.
On my chart (datafeed based on NY time, 4hr bars aligned to 0:00),
Momentum for week ending 16/1/04 is 542.20
Momentum for week ending 23/1/04 is 559.33
Momentum for week ending 30/1/04 is 554.20
Momentum for week ending 06/2/04 is 526.63
In 'theory' I would not 'short' until after 30/1/04 as until the close of the week it is not certain that the momentum has turned south.
Diallist had a short on 23/1/04 at 1.2693 for +300 which I will put to one side for the moment until I can determine what the program should mechanically do with going short on a higher weekly momentum.
Boneheaded point No.2
The original vegas document had a weekly filter "If the difference between the 21 EMA and the 5 EMA is > 500 pips, then the pip difference from the prior week must change by more than 10 pips, or just go lower over 2 consecutive weeks, to signal a trend change."
From the numbers in point no.1, weekly momentum is over 500 pips and the change from 23/1/04 to 30/1/04 is less than 10 pips, so once again in my boneheaded 'theory', the momentum could still be up and only 'longs' should be taken until after 06/2/04 where it has definitely dropped for 2 consecutive weeks.
Boneheaded point No.3
Thanks, saved me pulling my hair out 
Diallist has a short (lot 1) on 28/1/04 at 1.2539 to hit fib144 at 1.2412 for 127pips
Exit I have no problem with as mine comes out at 1.2408, close enough
This could all be to do with datafeed or 4hr bar alignment and I'd like to find out which.
On my chart, the bar ending at 16:00 closes at 1.2514 with 8 MA rising from previous bar to 1.2603
The close 8 bars ago is 27/1/04 1.2486
Thus the neutral price is 1.2486
My boneheaded understanding (20pip rule) is if the price now goes below 1.2466 (low is 1.2459) then you would short at 1.2466 which is the price I get, short at 1.2466, exit 1.2408 for 58pips
How did you get an entry at 1.2539?
I've attached a chart.
Short on the hollow red arrow
Cover on the hollow green arrow
The middle dotted line is the price 1.2486 from 8 bars ago from the short.
Red line is 8 MA Close (4hr)
Blue line is 55 MA (H+L/2)(4hr)
Light Blue dotted line is fib144 from 55MA
Brown line is 5 MA (H+L/2) weekly
I would be grateful if anyone could help me out of my boneheadedness
Best regards
Alan
Move over HeavyJ, I'm about to take over your title for being a boneheaded trader
:Thanks again Diallist for your backtested results, it gives me something to compare against.
Boneheaded point No.1
As I understand it, the value of the weekly momentum only 'finalises' at the end of the week and until the market closes on Fri, I would not know the value of the momentum for that week, so I could not trade mon-fri based on the close of the momentum of that week.
On my chart (datafeed based on NY time, 4hr bars aligned to 0:00),
Momentum for week ending 16/1/04 is 542.20
Momentum for week ending 23/1/04 is 559.33
Momentum for week ending 30/1/04 is 554.20
Momentum for week ending 06/2/04 is 526.63
In 'theory' I would not 'short' until after 30/1/04 as until the close of the week it is not certain that the momentum has turned south.
Diallist had a short on 23/1/04 at 1.2693 for +300 which I will put to one side for the moment until I can determine what the program should mechanically do with going short on a higher weekly momentum.
Boneheaded point No.2
The original vegas document had a weekly filter "If the difference between the 21 EMA and the 5 EMA is > 500 pips, then the pip difference from the prior week must change by more than 10 pips, or just go lower over 2 consecutive weeks, to signal a trend change."
From the numbers in point no.1, weekly momentum is over 500 pips and the change from 23/1/04 to 30/1/04 is less than 10 pips, so once again in my boneheaded 'theory', the momentum could still be up and only 'longs' should be taken until after 06/2/04 where it has definitely dropped for 2 consecutive weeks.
Boneheaded point No.3
P.S. The date of the second trade in the spreadsheet is wrong. It should be 1-28 instead of 1-27.
Diallist has a short (lot 1) on 28/1/04 at 1.2539 to hit fib144 at 1.2412 for 127pips
Exit I have no problem with as mine comes out at 1.2408, close enough
This could all be to do with datafeed or 4hr bar alignment and I'd like to find out which.
On my chart, the bar ending at 16:00 closes at 1.2514 with 8 MA rising from previous bar to 1.2603
The close 8 bars ago is 27/1/04 1.2486
Thus the neutral price is 1.2486
My boneheaded understanding (20pip rule) is if the price now goes below 1.2466 (low is 1.2459) then you would short at 1.2466 which is the price I get, short at 1.2466, exit 1.2408 for 58pips
How did you get an entry at 1.2539?
I've attached a chart.
Short on the hollow red arrow
Cover on the hollow green arrow
The middle dotted line is the price 1.2486 from 8 bars ago from the short.
Red line is 8 MA Close (4hr)
Blue line is 55 MA (H+L/2)(4hr)
Light Blue dotted line is fib144 from 55MA
Brown line is 5 MA (H+L/2) weekly
I would be grateful if anyone could help me out of my boneheadedness
Best regards
Alan
- #270
- Dec 29, 2005 3:55pm Dec 29, 2005 3:55pm
- Joined Sep 2004 | Status: Trader | 1,464 Posts
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
- #271
- Dec 29, 2005 4:05pm Dec 29, 2005 4:05pm
- Joined Sep 2004 | Status: Trader | 1,464 Posts
Hey Firehorse, I think you missed the new update.
He has a V2.0 out by email to one of our members who kindly shared it with us. It eliminated the calculation of weekly momentum. In my opinion, I think its better.
)For my part, since I've already got lots of screenshots in the PF detailing the use of the weekly trend chart, I'm going to leave it in place. Any updates I get from Vegas will be included as appendices to the main system description.
Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
- #275
- Dec 30, 2005 11:01pm Dec 30, 2005 11:01pm
- Joined Mar 2004 | Status: Magic Man | 3,220 Posts
Relax and be happy.
Hi all,
I've been a member here for a while, but I don't think I've ever posted. I post a lot at other forums and just never quite got around to FF very often. Wow, was that a mistake. You guys are great.
I've been interested in the Vegas method for a few months and I've played around with the indicators by Spiggy and tried making my own adjustments. I'm still in that demo/learning stage of my trading career so this thread has been really enjoyable to read.
I think the thing I like most about the 4 Hour Tunnel is that it is not "gimmicky" to me. Maybe that sounds dumb, but there are so many new "super-duper make-you-rich-in-a-month" strategies out there that it makes it difficult for a new trader to focus on making something work. The 4hr Tunnel seems to just be based on a solid foundation and if it is traded with some discretion, it should be profitable.
Anyway, back to my reason for posting. I've found that if you use a 25 HMA (Hull Moving Average) on the 4hr chart instead of the 8 SMA it gives cleaner signals. The REAL turns happen at pretty much the same time, but because it is so much smoother, it filters out a lot of the "head fakes" that the 8 SMA gives. The 8 SMA tends to make a lot of small "bounces" when there is a small retrace in price causing it to officially change direction (even if by only a few pips and for only 1 bar), which according to the system takes you out of the trade. The 25 HMA smoothes right through those small retraces.
I also found that replacing the 55 SMA on the 4hr with a 233 HMA gives interesting results. It follows the twists and turns of the 55 SMA pretty evenly, but during ranging markets it tends to stay a little further away from price, thus, when you get bounced in and out of the market due to turns on the Short MA, you are only entering with 1/2 positions.
I'm attaching a picture to show you what I mean. The SMAs are the thin lines and the HMA are the thicker lines.
Also, I'm attaching the HMA.mq4 file for Metatrader. You can find more info about the Hull Moving Average at Alan Hull's website under the Articles section (or just Google it). I don't think I'm allowed to post an actual link to a website yet. If you click on the Articles section it takes you to a site where he sells a newsletter. (Lots of good free articles too) I'm not affiliated with that in any way. I just want you to know where to go to find info on the HMA and he gives a full description of it there and shows you the formula.
Well, I guess this is long enough for a first post. Thanks again for a great thread. I look forward to contributing here.
Keris
I too have been playing around with the vegas tunnel and trying to work out how to trade it in a more mechanical fashion.
I came across the HMA a few weeks ago and found it to be a pretty good little indicator. Seems to have very little lag.
The one I have been using is 'HMA in colour'.
It changes colour as the trend turns...but here is the problem.
I am not 100% sure that once the bar has finished that the colour will remain changed.
Anyone willing to test it?
I first thought of putting this indicator on the weekly chart in place of the 28ema that Vegas mentioned as it seemed ( to me) to be giving more direction.
Anyway this is the HMA in colour on a setting of 21
- #278
- Dec 31, 2005 12:39am Dec 31, 2005 12:39am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2005 | 2,875 Posts
Hi Keris,
I too have been playing around with the vegas tunnel and trying to work out how to trade it in a more mechanical fashion.
I came across the HMA a few weeks ago and found it to be a pretty good little indicator. Seems to have very little lag.
The one I have been using is 'HMA in colour'.
It changes colour as the trend turns...but here is the problem.
I am not 100% sure that once the bar has finished that the colour will remain changed.
Anyone willing to test it?
I first thought of putting this indicator on the weekly chart in place of the 28ema that Vegas mentioned as it seemed ( to me) to be giving more direction.
Anyway this is the HMA in colour on a setting of 21
