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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #58,021
  • Mar 11, 2010 10:17pm Mar 11, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
live account 2% risk NZDJPY trade I took. I don't understand why this hasn't already hit my targets yet...
u have identified the situation well. u have identified the surrounding PPZs but u seem to have overlooked the ppz headed into by your trade.

check the nzdjpy H4 chart below
there is a minor PPZ (gray boxes) +/-20pips of 63.00.
(63.05 is bar high of March5's daily bar too). needless to say, your trade is heading into a round number.
another possible reason: nzd is still stronger than jpy.

2 small red horizontal lines are the open & close of this FXPro pin (slightly more bullish close compared to yours; your pin's close seem to be 63.30ish, mine's 63.52; what's your daily pin's open, low, close?).
Daily pin is highlighted too (saddle brown color)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdj h4 mar122010.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #58,022
  • Mar 11, 2010 10:49pm Mar 11, 2010 10:49pm
Quoting supremeChaos
u have identified the situation well. u have identified the surrounding PPZs but u seem to have overlooked the ppz headed into by your trade.

check the nzdjpy H4 chart below
there is a minor PPZ (gray boxes) +/-20pips of 63.00.
(63.05 is bar high of March5's daily bar too). needless to say, your trade is heading into a round number.
another possible reason: nzd is still stronger than jpy.

2 small red horizontal lines are the open & close of this FXPro pin (slightly more bullish close compared to yours; your pin's close seem to be...

I saw that area, but the way that bar was hauling ass, I thought it didn't stand a chance with that pin sitting basically right on it.... (not to mention how well that PPZ played as resistance in the past) If I had a 30 pip gap to that area, well I'd be at B/E at the time price hit it, but that pin was so close, and moving so fast, I just had to take it! momentum died as soon as my order was hit it seems.... Looks like my USDJPY win might get evened out with this NZDJPY trade... We'll see.


I must say that I have been finding that 2 bar patters are more consistently successful than the 1 bar patters (aka, pin bars) the I4B's are probably my favorite . BEOB/BUOB seem more consistent in practice as well... Here's my theory as to why!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: whipsaw.gif Size: 23 KB
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #58,023
  • Mar 11, 2010 11:26pm Mar 11, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
I must say that I have been finding that 2 bar patters are more consistently successful than the 1 bar patters (aka, pin bars) the I4B's are probably my favorite . BEOB/BUOB seem more consistent in practice as well... Here's my theory as to why!!
A 1hr pin could have ten times the volume of a 2 day pin/BUOB. And a reversal - say, a bearish pin for instance - could either be driven by new participants entering (ie, a flood of offers at a certain, probably option related' level) or a market running out of bids (because of a gradual change in sentiment). Or a combination of the two, like a major news event that brings in new offers and sees old bids killed and existing longs close.

Without knowing what the change was, why it happened, how it happened, or at the very least how much money was involved in either direction, we cant really conclude either way
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #58,024
  • Mar 11, 2010 11:52pm Mar 11, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
I saw that area, but the way that bar was hauling ass...that pin was so close, and moving so fast, I just had to take it!...
I must say that I have been finding that 2 bar patterns are more consistently successful than the 1 bar patters (aka, pin bars)...
i learned again today: hauling ass.
well, somehow u got compelled to trade this one.
This is another example of what Sir mbqb11 mentioned before: (for shorts) place a trade below the PPZ (& not above/prior)

im looking at nzdjpy now, looks like there is a chance that the market may take u out before hauling our ass downwards (can u say it that way?). if price cant breach 63.50ish, then we may see a Head-& shoulders pattern (H4 chart; alternatively: price halts around 63.50 H4 PPZ, plunge towards 62.50, then 63.00 re-test before downmove)

btw, nice insight/theory about the 2-bar patterns.

from the picture:
Quote
by the time that bar forms, steam may already have been lost due to a high level of volatility in a single day
this, i believe, depends on the location. price often loses steam when it nears a S/R or PPZ, as buyers/sellers lose interest in pushing the price further (in its current direction).
  • #58,025
  • Edited 12:11am Mar 12, 2010 12:01am | Edited 12:11am
Quoting joelcf
A 1hr pin could have ten times the volume of a 2 day pin/BUOB...
Without knowing what the change was, why it happened, how it happened, or at the very least how much money was involved in either direction, we cant really conclude either way
& this is where volume analysis comes in
(i know... i know........ stick to S/Rs )


EDIT: in essence, we are indirectly reading volume via these PA setups (PB, BUOB etc). that's what's great about PA
  • #58,026
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:03am Mar 12, 2010 12:03am
Quoting wh1zz0
First off, the trend is up.

Secondly, even if you were to do a counter trend trade I think you should have waited for a better set-up, like a firm close below the round number.
This is the NZDUSD daily... and there have been 4 UP bars in an otherwise longer term down trend since last Oct.

I don't understand how come you consider the trend is up?

Can you or someone please explain what I am missing here as i would have considered this a 'with the trend' trade! ( Also price is below Ryan's MA for trend direction!)

Confused....

Thanks,
Cherry
  • #58,027
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:16am Mar 12, 2010 12:16am
Cherry,
it's confusing sometimes, because we all have different perspectives.
That's why it's important to always specify when we talk of stuff like trend, etc.
imho it's also important to create clear, well-detailed posts everytime we post here, so as to avoid confusion from the onset.

it's possible he's basing the uptrend from price movement from March5 (Daily chart). or from price movement from March2009. or from another date.
Hope this helps
  • #58,028
  • Edited 12:38am Mar 12, 2010 12:25am | Edited 12:38am
Quoting supremeChaos
Cherry,
it's confusing sometimes, because we all have different perspectives.
That's why it's important to always specify when we talk of stuff like trend, etc.
imho it's also important to create clear, well-detailed posts everytime we post here, so as to avoid confusion from the onset.

it's possible he's basing the uptrend from price movement from March5 (Daily chart). or from price movement from March2009. or from another date.
Hope this helps
Thanks! ... However there must be some kind of 'standard' to determine trend for a daily J16 entry signal... surely it's not up to each person's discretion?
If you look for a signal in a down trend you obviously have to have a short term up trend to get a 'high' at some ppz to look for a signal?

Sorry... but I would like to have something a bit clearer on 'trading with the trend' (and not CT) for James method!

Please???!

cherry
PS No offence to you for your reply supreme chaos!
  • #58,029
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:41am Mar 12, 2010 12:41am
Quoting Cherry
Thanks! ... However there must be some kind of 'standard' to determine trend for a daily J16 entry signal... surely it's not up to each person's discretion?
If you look for a signal in a down trend you obviously have to have a short term up trend to get a 'high' at some ppz to look for a signal?

Sorry... but I would like to have something a bit clearer on 'trading with the trend' (and not CT) for James method!

Please???!

cherry
PS No offence to you for your reply supreme chaos!
Pull up a daily chart, zoom right out, and if price starts at the top left and finishes at the bottom right, its a downtrend.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #58,030
  • Mar 12, 2010 12:59am Mar 12, 2010 12:59am
Cherry,
what Sir joel said.

in addition:
there are mini-trends within trends.
for example, in a huge uptrend, there are mini-downtrends & mini-uptrends.

maybe it will help avoid/reduce confusion by doing this:
start with monthly/weekly TF, check the trend. whatever it is, call that the major trend.
then check H4-Daily TF. whatever the trend there is, that's the intermediate trend.
check M5-H1. the trend there is the short-term trend.
u can view it as such or in a similar way.

always check the charts to determine/verify the trend.
  • #58,031
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:00am Mar 12, 2010 1:00am
Quoting joelcf
Pull up a daily chart, zoom right out, and if price starts at the top left and finishes at the bottom right, its a downtrend.
Interesting... thanks Joel!

Do that to the NZDUSD and it's almost spot on where it was in Dec. '05!!

So that means it's sideways.. huh???!!!

Is that really the way to find trend on a daily??

  • #58,032
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:07am Mar 12, 2010 1:07am
Quoting supremeChaos
Cherry,
what Sir joel said.

in addition:
there are mini-trends within trends.
for example, in a huge uptrend, there are mini-downtrends & mini-uptrends.

maybe it will help avoid/reduce confusion by doing this:
start with monthly/weekly TF, check the trend. whatever it is, call that the major trend.
then check H4-Daily TF. whatever the trend there is, that's the intermediate trend.
check M5-H1. the trend there is the short-term trend.
u can view it as such or in a similar way.

always check the charts to determine/verify...
Thanks again... I understand all that from previous learning.
Which trend do you consider qualifies taking a daily trade?
I would have said intermediate... and if you apply Joel's method on the 4H chart that makes NZDUSD an up trend!

I think I want it K.I.S.S. !!!!!!!
  • #58,033
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:10am Mar 12, 2010 1:10am
Quoting Cherry
....
So that means it's sideways.. huh???!!!
Is that really the way to find trend on a daily??
Sideways?....
if u say so. if that's how u see it.

Remember, it's a matter of perspective.
Remember, we all have different perspectives.
  • #58,034
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:15am Mar 12, 2010 1:15am
Quoting Cherry
...
Which trend do you consider qualifies taking a daily trade?
...
daily & higher TF trend.

i think it's KISS enough, somehow u are complicating it inside your head.
having said that, i think it's a bit subjective (determining the trend), so there is no single correct answer.


^^^^^^^
sort of analogy:
when crossing a street, do u only look to the left, or do u look at both sides? ; i think the same goes with trend determination: it helps to look at 2 or more higher TFs..........
is this a good analogy?? lol

if u want it too KISS, u can check the daily trend when trading a daily chart. enter & exit based on daily chart
  • #58,035
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:23am Mar 12, 2010 1:23am
Quoting supremeChaos
daily & higher TF trend.

i think it's KISS enough, somehow u are complicating it inside your head.
having said that, i think it's a bit subjective (determining the trend), so there is no single correct answer.
OK... maybe that is the problem.... yeah my head ....
AND.... as you say... there is no single correct answer!!!!
  • #58,036
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:27am Mar 12, 2010 1:27am
Cherry,
if i say trend is up & i make money, but u say trend is down & make money too
.... [different perspectives but satisfactory results]... that's what matters right?

ok, i shut up now,
joelcf, mbqb11 & steviet (& a couple of Invisibles) are down there
  • #58,037
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:27am Mar 12, 2010 1:27am
Quoting Cherry

I think I want it K.I.S.S. !!!!!!!
If you wan't it KISS!!!!!
.
4H = Range.
Daily = Range.
W = UP Trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZD.GIF Size: 20 KB
  • #58,038
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:31am Mar 12, 2010 1:31am
Quoting Cherry
Thanks! ... However there must be some kind of 'standard' to determine trend for a daily J16 entry signal... surely it's not up to each person's discretion?
If you look for a signal in a down trend you obviously have to have a short term up trend to get a 'high' at some ppz to look for a signal?

Sorry... but I would like to have something a bit clearer on 'trading with the trend' (and not CT) for James method!

Please???!

cherry
PS No offence to you for your reply supreme chaos!
Gonna have a little springboard from your post cherry, just directed in general

mini rant on this CT vs trend stuff lately.

I think this discussion about trend vs CT is a bit misguided IMO. You can trade both ways and anyway if you are doing it right. And you will get killed with the trend if you do that wrong too. Just like I see people picking CT trades with little mini pinbars, and then someone will say "trade with the trend". It is all about all the pieces for each trade. I see trend as simple as if price goes from top left to bottom right that is a down trend, vice versa for uptrend, and everything else in between as sideways.

For me when I place a trade all the pieces come into a play. You can have the best looking pinbar with the trend, but if it is trading into a mess, it is trading to a mess. Just like you could have the best CT pin, but if it is trading into a mess it is trading into a mess.

Ultimately for me it is Location, Bar, and what is the story. I don't care which way I am going and take trades in all kinds of markets. I have taken BEOBs at the bottom of a swing low in a downtrend, taken them on pullbacks, and as true reversals. Everyone might have different rules for how they decide to put the pieces together. I know people who only take trades at the 50% fib, ONLY. They don't call it with the trend, or reversal or anything, they simply define a location and wait for the appropriate PA and then analyze how best to trade it. Some people I know ONLY take reversal from HUGE moves. That is the realy beauty and the beast of PA. You can make it work in so many ways(which also leads people to get highly frustrated until the lights start to come on).

Again these are my beliefs, and as DS and many others have always told me, we trade our beliefs. What are yours?(that is rhetorical to get you thinking )

You guys rule b/c you let me rant it out
Mike
  • #58,039
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:36am Mar 12, 2010 1:36am
Quoting mbqb11
Gonna have a little springboard from your post...
Hey mike,
u typed all that... just now?
impressively fast!
  • #58,040
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:37am Mar 12, 2010 1:37am
Quoting supremeChaos
Hey mike,
u typed all that... just now?
impressively fast!
its approaching friday, slowing down, my brain slowly shuts down for the weekend

People know to get their emails in by thursday HAHA
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