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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #401
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:38pm Mar 11, 2010 6:38pm
E/U
sell limit order at 1.3757 SL=1.3857 TP=TBD
reason;
1-descending scallop
2-COT net short
3-S>R at 1.3838
4-Weekly R1 at the sell order level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #402
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:44pm Mar 11, 2010 6:44pm
E/G
sell at .9100 SL=.9200 TP= .8850
switch to long at .8850, aiming parity
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #403
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:49pm Mar 11, 2010 6:49pm
Quoting shahab8b
E/G
sell at .9100 SL=.9200 TP= .8850
switch to long at .8850, aiming parity
Just a thought..............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Let Price determine your future!
  • #404
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:56pm Mar 11, 2010 6:56pm
Quoting Patience
Just pulled up a chart to have a look at it I can see the significance of this level on the weekly so clearly. Shucks. I guess there are a lot of stops around 1.02. Could get messy - he, he - I'm not touching it. Look at you with gold

SSI: Retail Positioning on USDCAD Tests a New Extreme as the Push to 1.02 Continues

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 5.43 as nearly 84% of traders are long.

Do you remember the ratio of long usd/cad last time it was at 1.02?
  • #405
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:56pm Mar 11, 2010 6:56pm
Quoting Geppyg
Just a thought..............
thanx Geppyg for your perfect chart,
  • #406
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:58pm Mar 11, 2010 6:58pm
Quoting Clouds
Do you remember the ratio of long usd/cad last time it was at 1.02?
last time? do you mean Jan 6 ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #407
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:00pm Mar 11, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting shahab8b
last time? do you mean Jan 10 ?
Yes, Jan 15th. I think.
  • #408
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:03pm Mar 11, 2010 7:03pm
Quoting Clouds
Yes, Jan 15th. I think.
Jan 12
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #409
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:05pm Mar 11, 2010 7:05pm
I found it Coulds, Jan 15th
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #410
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:06pm Mar 11, 2010 7:06pm
Quoting shahab8b
I found it Coulds, Jan 15th
Thanks. Both times very high percentage long.
  • #411
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:22pm Mar 11, 2010 7:22pm
Quoting Victory83
hi Shahab
do you remember these two setup?
finally it worked out
i still follow your great thread.thank you

AUDUSD1440

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/ro...x6qs_thumb.jpg

XAUUSD1440

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/15...t90c_thumb.jpg

Good Luck
hi there, yes, I remember them, do you have any new set up?
  • #412
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:02am Mar 12, 2010 5:02am
hi shahab
yeah i try to find best opportunities for trade (from my own point view) in the beginning of the week. but last days i was busy so i could not attach the pics in here. but i will do it cause i really like you thread and the way you and patience see the market.
by the way, about the ssi which Cloud mentioned, i looked at chart and i think in that day (15 jan) the price act same as majority of traders. i meant the most trader were long on usdcad and the market went long too. is it right?
so it means ssi did not worked well 15 jan?
  • #413
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:04am Mar 12, 2010 5:04am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Patience,
today wasn't easy for me too, I had some losers today ,for U/Cad the S line is heavily under pressure , I'm really started questioning the possibility of a reversal here, price usually doesn't like S/R line ,when it's hanging around them like this one ,the chance of a break out is increasing, but I'm still buying U/Cad due to good RRR in case of a reversal.
G'day Shahab

Interesting to see that U/Cad is still holding. Time for a bounce?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #414
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:15am Mar 12, 2010 5:15am
Quoting Patience
G'day Shahab

Interesting to see that U/Cad is still holding. Time for a bounce?

Attachment
morning Patience,
I just woke up and I saw the market moved a lot while I was sleeping.
the most interesting one is E/U ,
taking about U/Cad , you know employment news is due in 40 min, IMO the S 1.02 will break ,in the news , whether it will be a false break or real one we need to see
  • #415
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:15am Mar 12, 2010 5:15am
Quoting Victory83
by the way, about the ssi which Cloud mentioned, i looked at chart and i think in that day (15 jan) the price act same as majority of traders. i meant the most trader were long on usdcad and the market went long too. is it right?
so it means ssi did not worked well 15 jan?
Hi Victory83

You are correct. More traders were long USD/CAD so SSI did not work well that day. I just noticed that PA on USDX 4 hour chart was sitting right on 200 SMA on 15 January as well so it was make it or break it.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #416
  • Edited 5:35am Mar 12, 2010 5:18am | Edited 5:35am
Quoting shahab8b
morning Patience,
I just woke up and I saw the market moved a lot while I was sleeping.
the most interesting one is E/U ,
Morning Shahab

Yeah, those comments from Marty Feldstein might have helped. It's not managing to bounce very well at the moment Yen and CAD have done very small ranges this week as well. Sentiment has flipped this morning for GBP. Employment news - right - gonna be interesting.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.49 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.43 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.6% lower than yesterday and 8.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.4% higher than yesterday and 40.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% weaker than yesterday and 19.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.09 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 4.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.7% lower than yesterday and 18.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.4% weaker than yesterday and 2.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.43 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.40 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.3% higher than yesterday and 14.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.6% lower than yesterday and 11.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 15.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.65 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.61 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 0.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.1% lower than yesterday and 3.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.7% weaker than yesterday and 0.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.42 as nearly 82% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.51 as 82% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.9% higher than yesterday and 30.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.0% higher than yesterday and 17.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.3% stronger than yesterday and 38.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.47 as nearly 78% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.68 as 79% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.8% lower than yesterday and 176.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.2% lower than yesterday and 16.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.6% weaker than yesterday and 56.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.55 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.3% higher than yesterday and 18.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.2% lower than yesterday and 16.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 4.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.35 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.6% lower than yesterday and 14.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.3% higher than yesterday and 27.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.0% weaker than yesterday and 7.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

USDX 1 Hour

Haven't seen RSI this oversold for months on 1 hour.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX-1hour-12mar.jpg Size: 156 KB


Gotta run, catcha later
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #417
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:35am Mar 12, 2010 5:35am
Quoting Patience
Morning Shahab

Yeah, those comments from Marty Feldstein might have helped. It's not managing to bounce very well at the moment Yen and CAD have done very small ranges this week as well. Sentiment has flipped this morning for GBP. Employment news - right - gonna be interesting.

yes, it seems , they took profit on their long G/U . overall the market is tricky, at least for me,E/U has been the most difficult one for me to chart , for now I stick to my descending scallop and I'm selling at this price, but if the R at 1.3840 breaks there is a case for a round bottom in E/U.
if you are scalping form now till 9 am NY time is good to sell E/U rallies
  • #418
  • Mar 12, 2010 6:38am Mar 12, 2010 6:38am
I went short A/U at Weekly R at .9190 and took Long on U/Cad at weekly S at 1.01745 , and I added to short E/U at 1.3785
  • #419
  • Mar 12, 2010 8:54am Mar 12, 2010 8:54am
Quoting Patience
Morning Shahab

Yeah, those comments from Marty Feldstein might have helped. It's not managing to bounce very well at the moment Yen and CAD have done very small ranges this week as well. Sentiment has flipped this morning for GBP. Employment news - right - gonna be interesting.
Patience, would you mind posting the latest SSI report today, I'd like to see how retailers reacted to 1.02 break on U/Cad
  • #420
  • Mar 12, 2010 9:01am Mar 12, 2010 9:01am
Quoting Victory83
hi shahab

by the way, about the ssi which Cloud mentioned, i looked at chart and i think in that day (15 jan) the price act same as majority of traders. i meant the most trader were long on usdcad and the market went long too. is it right?
so it means ssi did not worked well 15 jan?
Hi victory I just saw your post,
well SSI is a contrarian tool and as I mentioned earlier you need to treat it differently from COT ,as COT is a market mover and SSI is not, when you see that all the retail trader are long U/Cad it means the price will fall further but once in a while retailers are right like on Jan 15th but they weren't lucky this time, you can find the difference by looking at PA, as /i mentioned yesterday, price doesn't like S/R level when it is hanging around them for a while it means the chance of break out is high, like what has happened in U/Cad
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