james16 Chart Thread | Page 2885 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #57,681
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:59pm Mar 9, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting Jonners67
Hey Joelcf, can I abuse your experience?

I use IG Index without issue. What is there out there that is better and why? Could you elaborate on what I am missing out on?l.
I used them years ago, so things may have changed, but basically, their charting package is horrible, their spreads are huge (for me at least, not sure about in the UK) and they kill you with slippage - even in quiet times, I would get like ten pips on each side. Add that to the 10 pip spread (including 'GSL premium', which they forced me to take because i was a brokeass student) and you pretty much have a recipe for turning winners into breakeven or worse.

Contrast that with somewhere like IBFX where I would get spreads of maybe 4 pips, no slip and MT4 (which is so simple even a baby can use it.. so I still struggle a bit ) and it really is no contest.

Once you use a MT4 broker, you will never want to go back. And it only gets better, and pricier, from there
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #57,682
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:59pm Mar 9, 2010 3:59pm
This one popped up on my radar as a potential 1% risk live account trade....


Reasons it's not a 2%-3% trade:
1. not a swing low
2. lots of traffic (as seen by green horizontal lines)
3. not touching any very big round number

Reasons I like it:
1. not heading toward any very big round number/EMA
2. no Fibonacci levels blocking it's path
3. bouncing off a very proven PPZ @ .9064


I am very hesitant here.... maybe I'm overconfident to even consider it because of the last U/J trade I took....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: troubleareas.gif Size: 17 KB
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #57,683
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:04pm Mar 9, 2010 4:04pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
Well I took the time to make this pic and post it as my final analysis of this daily BUOB USDJPY trade I took. This is probably the most "J16 textbook trade" I have ever taken/managed. Enjoy.
Thanks, Dan
As a noob, I love it when things are laid out in black and white.
Especially when they're in color.
  • #57,684
  • Edited 5:07pm Mar 9, 2010 4:17pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting wh1zz0
In addition to this, One important thing we should not forget is that this is a probabilities game and out of any sample size in probability studies you have to be available to take ALL instances that define your edge.

I can trade the smaller time frames but the only reason I prefer the daily and weekly is not because it fits my personality but because I understand that this is a probabilities game (of speculation) and I ask myself the crucial question which is - On the M5 or M1 will I be available to take ALL instances of trades that...
That isnt really how probability works. I cant remember exactly, but I think it was Elder pushing this line (maybe Van Tharp though - my brain is jumping around today like Tom Cruise on a couch), and it's erroneous at best.

Basically, assuming you have an 'edge' (ie, a positive expectancy), then in the long term your results will approach that value. The usual examples are flipping a coin or rolling a die - for every roll, we have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, about 16.7%. Roll it a million times and you will end up pretty close to this.

The issue is variance. Over the short term, our results can vary considerably from what they 'should' be. Roll it ten times and you might no sixes. Do it a hundred times, you will get closer. A million? Even better. It's all about volume. Doesnt matter if we roll the dice ten times, then go hit on the hot girl at the coffee shop, buy a bagel and then come back to roll it another 90 - the only thing that matters is the number of trials.

(At this point, you can google 'central limit theorem' if you like, but the results will bore you to tears)

To wrap up this dicey (see what I did there?!) analogy, the issue isnt with 'taking every trade'. It is with taking enough trades so that the variance is minimised and you approach your expected value.

So, someone like Ryan who trades the 5m charts doesnt have a disadvantage because he 'misses' trades, he actually has a huge advantage over people on daily bars* because he can take so many more trades, which means his results are going to be much closer to their true underlying value than someone trading daily bars. Assuming that the two trades have the same EV and SD, someone on the dailies is going to take alot fewer trades and their results can vary much more widely before they start getting close to their 'true' return.

Also, all this dice talk makes me wish I knew how to play craps

* this isnt to say that it is 'better' to trade the 5m chart. at all.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #57,685
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:31pm Mar 9, 2010 4:31pm
FYI.....I'm pretty sure it was Van Tharp who talks about this.

Quoting joelcf
That isnt really how probability works. I cant remember exactly, but I think it was Elder pushing this line (maybe Van Tharp though - my brain is jumping around today like Tom Cruise on a couch), and it's erroneous at best.

Basically, assuming you have an 'edge' (ie, a positive expectancy), then in the long term your results will approach that value. The usual examples are flipping a coin or rolling a die - for every roll, we have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, about 16.7%. Roll it a million times and you will end up pretty close to...
  • #57,686
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:34pm Mar 9, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting Pinhead
hey oromek

yeah, i went long @ 1.02520. I kinda forgot about the trade until i read your post. Still in demo mode and sometimes don't give trades my full attention. I had to look at the damn thing for a little while to figure out why i even took it. I'd been watching videos explaining inside bars all morning and i think i liked the IB on the 15m chart, just off the bounce. I think.
Hoping i'll learn something from it, but mostly just passing time while waiting for a killer pinbar on the daily and weekly charts.
What did you like about...
I am. Also AUDJPY. PB on daily. At 50% fib, divergence on weekly RSI.
  • #57,687
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:35pm Mar 9, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
...NY 9:30 market opens, people thing "Okay lets get this day going" they start to trade, then 10:30 rolls around they are thinking about getting work done before lunch at 12:00, 12-2 = lunch time, all the big players are out, 2:30 people want to finish the day up and go home. They are PEOPLE just like you and I and everyone has a set day, if you are at work and get out at 4:00 and you have to unload 4 million shares and it's 2:30 what is going to happen? This is why rotation works, and yes it does not hit it on the dot everyday but it's nice...
Blue highlighted lines are 10:30 and 2:30 EST. At 10:30, DOW resumed it's move higher. At 2:30, We formed a DBHLC at the R2 and made a nice move lower the rest of the day... (was also HNS if you prefer)

I've also noticed 10:00am EST is a good time for watching
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym 030910 close.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #57,688
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:45pm Mar 9, 2010 4:45pm
FWIW
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADDaily03-09-10.png Size: 43 KB
  • #57,689
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:46pm Mar 9, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
This one popped up on my radar as a potential 1% risk live account trade....


Reasons it's not a 2%-3% trade:
1. not a swing low
2. lots of traffic (as seen by green horizontal lines)
3. not touching any very big round number

Reasons I like it:
1. not heading toward any very big round number/EMA
2. no Fibonacci levels blocking it's path
3. bouncing off a very proven PPZ @ .9064


I am very hesitant here.... maybe I'm overconfident to even consider it because of the last U/J trade I took....
Dan, I'm a newb so i'm just learning the ropes, but this popped up on my radar too. on demo i have a long order pending @ 0.9160.
  • #57,690
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:52pm Mar 9, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting Jduester
Blue highlighted lines are 10:30 and 2:30 EST. At 10:30, DOW resumed it's move higher. At 2:30, We formed a DBHLC at the R2 and made a nice move lower the rest of the day... (was also HNS if you prefer)

I've also noticed 10:00am EST is a good time for watching
That setup looked good on all kinds of different time frames........
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #57,691
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:54pm Mar 9, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting GotPips
Dan, I'm a newb so i'm just learning the ropes, but this popped up on my radar too. on demo i have a long order pending @ 0.9160.
good choice... I opted to just demo it... not going to live trade it
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #57,692
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:56pm Mar 9, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
This one popped up on my radar as a potential 1% risk live account trade....


Reasons it's not a 2%-3% trade:
1. not a swing low
2. lots of traffic (as seen by green horizontal lines)
3. not touching any very big round number

Reasons I like it:
1. not heading toward any very big round number/EMA
2. no Fibonacci levels blocking it's path
3. bouncing off a very proven PPZ @ .9064


I am very hesitant here.... maybe I'm overconfident to even consider it because of the last U/J trade I took....

I'd agree with your analysis Dan. It's a continuation bar for the current trend, but there is some divergence on MACD which might indicate its beginning to run out of steam. I think I might pass on this
  • #57,693
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:21pm Mar 9, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting bapxyz
Quoting triger88990
Say where in the FF can you learn how to make neat posts like ya'll with the posts in little boxews etc.
If you hit the 'quote' button (at the bottom right of the posts) to reply to someone's post, it should do it automagically.

Otherwise, the format is [q.uote=triger88990;3534153] textextext [/quote], without the "." between the q and u (just needed those so the actual code showed up). Your quotes seem to be missing the closing tag (the [/quote] bit at the end)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #57,694
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:22pm Mar 9, 2010 5:22pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
I used to think about that too, when I took a shower I missed that 1 trade but guess what? It does not work like that, I trade the 8am-3pm EST everyday, yes I miss a few hours and miss a few trades daily, Are they all winners that I miss? Hell no it's about the same as if I was at the screen, it's about like saying that you got up from the blackjack table as soon as they started hitting 21's it does not matter and each trade does not stack against the next at all, I have went to lunch for 2 hours and came back and looked to see I missed 3 losses...

Quoting joelcf
That isnt really how probability works. I cant remember exactly, but I think it was Elder pushing this line (maybe Van Tharp though - my brain is jumping around today like Tom Cruise on a couch), and it's erroneous at best.

Basically, assuming you have an 'edge' (ie, a positive expectancy), then in the long term your results will approach that value. The usual examples are flipping a coin or rolling a die - for every roll, we have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, about 16.7%. Roll it a million times and you will end up pretty close to this....

Thanks for the heads-up.

  • #57,695
  • Edited 9:23pm Mar 9, 2010 5:28pm | Edited 9:23pm
Quoting joelcf

Also, all this dice talk makes me wish I knew how to play craps
now you're talking my language.


http://wizardofodds.com/craps


fell in love with the game on a trip out to vegas, ended up hustling a learn to play craps table at Excalibur before they ran me off. If you want to go to one of the seedy joints you can even get 100x odds which brings the house edge to something like .021% (even lower if you play the don't pass line, 0.014%) and features the one of two bets in vegas which are true odds, placing odds on your pass/don't pass line bet.

Bonus points if you can guess what the other one is
  • #57,696
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:38pm Mar 9, 2010 5:38pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
This one popped up on my radar as a potential 1% risk live account trade....


Reasons it's not a 2%-3% trade:
1. not a swing low
2. lots of traffic (as seen by green horizontal lines)
3. not touching any very big round number

Reasons I like it:
1. not heading toward any very big round number/EMA
2. no Fibonacci levels blocking it's path
3. bouncing off a very proven PPZ @ .9064


I am very hesitant here.... maybe I'm overconfident to even consider it because of the last U/J trade I took....
Hey Dan,
I was looking at this setup few minutes ago. I don't trade continuation bars yet so I'm just watching how this will develop. What worries me is the S/R(PPZ) right above (about 15 pips) this outside bar(pink line), which is where your traffic market by green lines begins.
My (beginner) opinion: Might work? Yes. A+? No.

Cheers,
Mikey
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2010-03-10 at 12.30.52 AM.png Size: 41 KB
  • #57,697
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:51pm Mar 9, 2010 5:51pm
Quoting triger88990
I pulled the trigger based on many observation and something fundametal that I'm aware over time wich is interest rates.Knowing that interest rates are very attractive for speculators instantly we would expect capital flowing into the country which would carry on yen to rise,everything else is right on the charts.
Out of all those, only the AUD (and maybe NZD) has a significant interest rate differential. Euro rates are at 1%, fed funds are 0.25, BOE is 0.5% and RNBZ is 2.5. No one is short yen to buy EUR or GBP, especially in this climate.

If people are buying one currency for interest rates, they would be selling yen. Why would people selling it make yen rise?

Maybe there is just a language thing going on here, and you mean that the strong yielding currency (AUD) is being 'carried' by jpy (ie, people are shorting yen to buy AUD) and that's leading to the pair (AUDJPY) rising?

What you are actually seeing are risk aversion flows.

The other problem with that is that hot money isnt stupid, and they have a good idea of whether a central bank is going to raise rates well in advance of the announcement, and so any expected rise will already be incorporated into the charts. The only movement you will see will be when the news 'suprises' the market, or from adjustments made within (literally) milliseconds of the event (before the event, it might only be 85% probable, but after the event it is 100%).

Either way, unless you position yourself beforehand, you wont really be in a position to profit from it. Look at a calendar of RBA/RBNZ announcements and then look at the corresponding charts. For example, on your chart, the interest rate change happened on the 2nd of March, not where the big bullish move was.

That's the tricky thing about trying to incorporate fundamentals into your trading - it's never as straightforward as it first seems
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #57,698
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:57pm Mar 9, 2010 5:57pm
can we talk about gold here? how do people rate the daily pin?

my opinion: pin on the daily of a long term 38.2 fib. but just above it @ 1127.5 we have some ppz. go to 4h and a pin with l/r eyes, with a better entrance at 1118.20
(i need to search this thread to see how one posts up charts).

can someone tell me if my analysis is ok?

many thanks
  • #57,699
  • Mar 9, 2010 6:02pm Mar 9, 2010 6:02pm
Quoting Icehocey77
fell in love with the game on a trip out to vegas, ended up hustling a learn to play craps table at Excalibur before they ran me off.
That's why I need to learn it. There always seems to be lots of yelling, a bunch of hotties standing around cheering, people getting really into it and saying/doing crazy things for luck and it just seems like alot of fun. At a low house edge.

Quoting Icehocey77
Bonus points if you can guess what the other one is
Unless you find a roulette wheel with no zeros, playing house way in Pai Gow is about the only one I can think of. But Pai Gow is confusing, I was way too drunk when I played it and didnt know what I was doing, and the people who play it are weird. Crazy drunk HK businessmen who start singing when they win.

I think there are a few weird blackjack variations that come close too, especially with basic strategy - singledeck with 2:1 for suited naturals maybe? Assuming you can find it.

(technically, poker has no house edge on the cards, but then you have the rake to contend with)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #57,700
  • Mar 9, 2010 6:43pm Mar 9, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting GotPips
can we talk about gold here? how do people rate the daily pin?

my opinion: pin on the daily of a long term 38.2 fib. but just above it @ 1127.5 we have some ppz. go to 4h and a pin with l/r eyes, with a better entrance at 1118.20
You are spot on about that huge PPZ you would be trading right into

Some of them arent all that significant IMO (hell, if we avoided every trade where there was a previous bar, we would never do anything!), but I would be hesitant about trading into the ones marked in red.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GC3.png Size: 17 KB
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
44 traders viewing now