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Attachments: 7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #2,381
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:02pm Mar 8, 2010 4:02pm
Hey fellas, this week is a washout for me, not gonna be able to trade this method, but goodluck and nice to see some pips being made.
Apologies in advance for my spellimg, but it's 9.40 pm in london, time for a nice scotch! LOL
Some great posts, if you have'nt already done, reread posts 2367 and 2368. Perfect example of traders analysing, and thinking about how to maximise profits.
I'm gonna ramble and address various points, not necessarily in the right order:
Spike: 1% on any given trade, no more than 3% live in the mkt(i.e 3 positions)
Scott: How do you see the price with all those lines, LOL. I think my 4 ma's do exactly the same, but are are a bit clearer. 20 and 50 give immediate trend, 100 and 250 from timeframe above.
Money management is key, as is trading with the trend, but, i've never traded with a set target for the week, which i presume to mean, if your target for the week is 100 pips, if you make that on monday, then stop trading, Why??
My job as a trader is to take risk, to take any opportune signals that i see, when they meet my personal criteria,if i shut my charts on monday because i've made my target, how many trading opportunities am i ignoring?? Thats pseudo - loser claptrap.
Anyway, good luck fellas, i'll check in later this week, hope you make some good pips.
To me demo trading is worthless, until you have a few quid riding on a trade, you will not know how you will react.

Cheers
  • #2,382
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:17pm Mar 8, 2010 5:17pm
Today's Trade:

Eur/Usd: -15 pips
Gbp/Usd: -15 pips
Aud/Usd: -15 pips
Usd/Chf: -15 pips

Total : -60 pips for the day

Total pips for March: 105 pips

Today was one of the losing day, however I noted one thing. If I would have taken the other side of the breakout once this stoploss was hit, I would have recovered all the loses for today.

There is one strategy in mind, resembles gambling but looks very effective with this strategy combination. However, I need suggestions from others to see if anyone thought of it before.

Strategy to avoid losing pips:
- When you have losing trade, increase the lot by double and if that hits the TP, you have not only covered previous loss but also made new pips.

For example,

Trade 1: I trade with 0.01 lot, and lose 15 pips
Trade 2: I trade with 0.02 lot, and profit 15 pips

Now, effectively you are in 15 pips profit even though you had 50:50 results which should have given 0 pips.

This is purely due to the fact that we doubled the number of lots after losing.

All suggestions are welcome.

Thanks & Regards,
  • #2,383
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:28pm Mar 8, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting forex_fan
Today's Trade:


Strategy to avoid losing pips:
- When you have losing trade, increase the lot by double and if that hits the TP, you have not only covered previous loss but also made new pips.

For example,

Trade 1: I trade with 0.01 lot, and lose 15 pips
Trade 2: I trade with 0.02 lot, and profit 15 pips

Now, effectively you are in 15 pips profit even though you had 50:50 results which should have given...
You're looking at the Martingale system of doubling bets (trade sizes) when you lose. I suggest strongly that you search some of the threads here and see just how disastrous this method of trading can be, particularly when you hit the 'Death Trade'.

In the short run you'll have much more satisfaction just giving your money to a church, or the homeless - at least some one will benefit other than just your broker.
  • #2,384
  • Mar 8, 2010 7:00pm Mar 8, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting Flamenco143
You're looking at the Martingale system of doubling bets (trade sizes) when you lose. I suggest strongly that you search some of the threads here and see just how disastrous this method of trading can be, particularly when you hit the 'Death Trade'.

In the short run you'll have much more satisfaction just giving your money to a church, or the homeless - at least some one will benefit other than just your broker.
I always thought but never implemented this because its used by gamblers and I never believe gambling can make you better trader in long term.

Thanks for your valuable tip to a newbie, BTW, do you use the breakout for your trading?

Thanks & Regards,
  • #2,385
  • Mar 8, 2010 7:27pm Mar 8, 2010 7:27pm
but only on the E/J and an earlier time. Whatever you trade remember that you'll always have some losers. Sorry I can't be more specific right now. It's beddy-bye time for me.
  • #2,386
  • Mar 8, 2010 8:11pm Mar 8, 2010 8:11pm
Quoting Flamenco143
but only on the E/J and an earlier time. Whatever you trade remember that you'll always have some losers. Sorry I can't be more specific right now. It's beddy-bye time for me.
No worries..
Good night

Looking forward to tomorrow's breakout.
  • #2,387
  • Mar 9, 2010 1:23am Mar 9, 2010 1:23am
Quoting forex_fan
Today's Trade:

Strategy to avoid losing pips:
- When you have losing trade, increase the lot by double and if that hits the TP, you have not only covered previous loss but also made new pips.

For example,

Trade 1: I trade with 0.01 lot, and lose 15 pips
Trade 2: I trade with 0.02 lot, and profit 15 pips

Now, effectively you are in 15 pips profit even though you had 50:50 results which should have given...
Hey FF . . . that's what I used to call revenge trading. Been there and done that, can't say it ever really worked out. Besides, doing that with real money and watching your doubled up re-order go against you would be too tough to take. I'd just take the loss and move on unless you truely see another set up.

today:
+ 24 eur/usd .1 lot (started with .2, closed half, moved s/l to b/e)
+34 eur/usd .1 lot still open as of this writing, will move s/l up 10 pips.

week:
+24
month to date:
+135
  • #2,388
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:09am Mar 9, 2010 3:09am
Quoting slc12312
Madshark is right, just use what ever time frame matches that New York time. I know it can seem confusing with different charts and broker offsets and all of that. But . . . the bottom line is no matter what your GMT time your chart or my chart or anyones chart says, you still use 7am-9am New York time.

Also, try this indicator Attachment and adjust the box settings to display at the right time.

Maybe this will help.

Thanks for that Slc12312. I was starting to wonder if he got mixed up a little. So basically dont necessarly line up 1400 & 1600 just as long as its 7 & 9am NY time regardless of chart time. Thanks
  • #2,389
  • Mar 9, 2010 7:34am Mar 9, 2010 7:34am
Quoting forex_fan
Today's Trade:

Strategy to avoid losing pips:
- When you have losing trade, increase the lot by double and if that hits the TP, you have not only covered previous loss but also made new pips.

For example,

Trade 1: I trade with 0.01 lot, and lose 15 pips
Trade 2: I trade with 0.02 lot, and profit 15 pips

Now, effectively you are in 15 pips profit even though you had 50:50 results which should have given 0 pips.
forex fan what happens if this next trade is a loser then instead of losing 15 pips your down another 30 + the previous 15. This is the road to the poorhouse i'm afraid - if you search any forums be it forex or betting you'll always find the conclusion that the martingale simply never works.

For me guys Monday was a poor day lost full box on 3 pairs GBP/USD, EUR/USD and JPY/USD
  • #2,390
  • Mar 9, 2010 10:19am Mar 9, 2010 10:19am
ff, you can skip the 1st trade and if it fails then take the 2nd trade. this will be more profitable as the probability of success increases with each failed breakout
  • #2,391
  • Mar 9, 2010 10:50am Mar 9, 2010 10:50am
Quoting SirSpike
forex fan what happens if this next trade is a loser then instead of losing 15 pips your down another 30 + the previous 15. This is the road to the poorhouse i'm afraid - if you search any forums be it forex or betting you'll always find the conclusion that the martingale simply never works.

For me guys Monday was a poor day lost full box on 3 pairs GBP/USD, EUR/USD and JPY/USD
Well said.
What I don't get though is why the huge difference in our results. Two individuals basically using the same system. The only difference I can think of are the hours we are trading, and maybe the TF on which the order is placed. In California, I am three hours behind NY, my breakout box is set to display between the hours of 5am-7am PST which is 8am-10am EST or NY time. My breakout box WILL display differently based on the TF I am looking at, meaning the box will be smaller or larger depending on if it is displayed on the 5m, 15m or 1hr chart. I use the 15m chart to place orders. The only other thing I can think of is predicting the short and long term trend and being careful to not place upper or lower orders if you don't think the trend is going to hit them.

For instance on todays 15m chart below, I have not place an upper order, only a short, which at this time has obviously not been triggered. Could the price action go up . . . yes, will it . . . I think it will but I'n not too sure for today, and definitely not within the time I can monitor the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_08 Mar. 09 08.11.gif Size: 51 KB


If I would have placed an order on both sides using the 5 minute chart, you can see on the chart below, the long would have been triggered and would be at a loss at this time. This is why I trade from the 15. In all actuality, the higher the TF the better.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 38 KB


Hope we can get you on the positive side on some of these!!
  • #2,392
  • Mar 9, 2010 12:32pm Mar 9, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting slc12312
For instance on todays 15m chart below, I have not place an upper order, only a short, which at this time has obviously not been triggered. Could the price action go up . . . yes, will it . . . I think it will but I'n not too sure for today, and definitely not within the time I can monitor the trade.
Goes to show you . . . price did reverse and went long for ablout 20 pips ultimately hit my S/L on the order I let run.

Good luck all
  • #2,393
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:27pm Mar 9, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting SirSpike
forex fan what happens if this next trade is a loser then instead of losing 15 pips your down another 30 + the previous 15. This is the road to the poorhouse i'm afraid - if you search any forums be it forex or betting you'll always find the conclusion that the martingale simply never works.

For me guys Monday was a poor day lost full box on 3 pairs GBP/USD, EUR/USD and JPY/USD
Thanks for all your replies.

I really appreciate different point of views.

Today's results:

Eur/Usd: +15
Usd/Chf: +15
Aud/Usd: +15
Gbp/Usd: +15

Total for the day: +60
Total for the month to date: +165

I believe we can take 2nd breakout if first one fails, if I'd have taken them so far, I would almost covered all the loses.

For example, yesterday all the pairs hit stoploss, however 2nd breakout was successful which would have covered all loses for the day.

More suggestions are welcome. Learning a lot from Seniors.

Thanks & Regards,
  • #2,394
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:56pm Mar 9, 2010 2:56pm
In California, I am three hours behind NY, my breakout box is set to display between the hours of 5am-7am PST which is 8am-10am EST or NY time.

Hi scott
If i've understood you correctly, you are actually trading an 8-10 breakout (nyk time), rather than the original 7-9 strategy?
This could explain why the results are so different for different traders. The boxes would be different, entry points, sl etc would be different.
i think myself and spike are using 7-9 as our boxes would seem to be similar, as we took the same size loss on some trades.
Interesting.
  • #2,395
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:33pm Mar 9, 2010 3:33pm
Sax your correct I'm trading 7-9am NY time which gives me a box from 12 (midday) to 2.15pm uk time when the 2pm candle closes.

I didn't take a look at any trading today was just to busy with work.
  • #2,396
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:09pm Mar 9, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting pianosax12
In California, I am three hours behind NY, my breakout box is set to display between the hours of 5am-7am PST which is 8am-10am EST or NY time.

Hi scott
If i've understood you correctly, you are actually trading an 8-10 breakout (nyk time), rather than the original 7-9 strategy?
This could explain why the results are so different for different traders. The boxes would be different, entry points, sl etc would be different.
i think myself and spike are using 7-9 as our boxes would seem to be similar, as we took the same size loss on some...
I think that could be it too. Try and change your box parameters to an 8-10 breakout and visually backtest. I'd be curious if that makes any difference. Today my sell never triggered and I closed that pending order. I never put in a long pending, but if I did, it would have gone about 20 pips or so before retracing (based off 15m chart). If I used the box on a 5m chart, it would have gone 30 or so pips.

Anyway, when you have time, check it out and let me know what you think.
  • #2,397
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:11pm Mar 9, 2010 4:11pm
Spike, i set my boxes exactly the same, as i'm in london.
I'm beginning to think slc may have the better setup, the thing is a breakout stategy can be applied to any hours you like.
I was thinking about it over the w/e, and it seems to me what were trying to trade off is a period of time, with enough activty, with enough market participants, with enough volume, to give us a trade riding the momentum generated within the designated period.
Honestly, with over 15 yrs experience as a pro spot broker in the interbank mkt, in reality london mkt wakes up at 8 not 7am, when i started work. That first hour tends to be slow.
I know nyc is the same, they usually dont really kick in till 1pm, 8am gmt, so i think scotts boxes would be more reliable.
I can't trade this week but gonna backtest and see if anything jumps out.

Cheers
  • #2,398
  • Mar 9, 2010 9:59pm Mar 9, 2010 9:59pm
Quoting slc12312
I think that could be it too. Try and change your box parameters to an 8-10 breakout and visually backtest. I'd be curious if that makes any difference. Today my sell never triggered and I closed that pending order. I never put in a long pending, but if I did, it would have gone about 20 pips or so before retracing (based off 15m chart). If I used the box on a 5m chart, it would have gone 30 or so pips.

Anyway, when you have time, check it out and let me know what you think.

This is interesting as when I started this system, I back-tested 7-9am and 8-10am both works. You have to just stick to one set of time frame. Since, they never work 100%. I like the 7-9am because usually I can catch over 20 pips verses the later time period sometimes it would retrace after 12-15 pips. Hope this helps, the best way is to back track and see it for yourself, but with anything you just have to stick to one set of rules. I learned it the hard way by messing around with too many different styles and following too many indicators.
  • #2,399
  • Mar 10, 2010 2:08am Mar 10, 2010 2:08am
What I have learnt from a wise man is that the break out that has been mentioned is basically due to what he called the 9:30am NY market reversal. You get the 7-9am US market open which is generally a cool down period after the general trade direction of that day, and then when it hits the 9:30am, that's when the Equity market opens and you will see that that's when the market will reverse completely in the opposite direction causing the break out. (of course most the time or high percentage of the time, but everyone knows not all the time as nothing is 100% in this game) http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #2,400
  • Mar 10, 2010 4:05am Mar 10, 2010 4:05am
hi,

i found the attached ea earlier in this thread.
I'm using it, achieving quite good results.
One problem I'm having is that either I am using the trailing stop the wrong way or that the trailing stop is not doing what I want it to.

Can someone explain to me those 3 trailing stop functions, the ea has?

I am trying to use it like the normal trail.
So that once my position is eg. 15 pips positive the trail goes to 0 (break even) and from then on it moves 1 pip whenever my position goes 1 pip more positive.

I don't know what the trail of the ea is doing, because I can't see it. The red trail line is not visible. How can we make it visible?

thank you all
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Box_Breakout_V1.3.mq4   19 KB | 681 downloads
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