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AUD/USD

  • #18,381
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:18pm Mar 8, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting Ida
my plan is to short AUD-USD around 92.5 and again at 93.50, if it reaches that high. until then, staying flat, as playing the hopes of strength-onto-already-strong is too risky for my protocols, which rely heavily on historical levels as entry points.
I don't think it will get tha high for a while. It crossed under 30M and 1HR TSR last night. St Dev, BB width, ADX (+ and -), volumes and momentum are all decreasing. PA is moving into MAs (100, 50, 25 and 10). 1HR Ichi lines are about to cross. I see range/consolidation, then back down.

I just ordered a pizza and am busting out the XBOX until London gets on. Don't see then next few hours of PA being very interesting/fun.
  • #18,382
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:40pm Mar 8, 2010 3:40pm
One last thing. On the attached chart, we have tested 38.2 standart fib, but fib fan is projecting a current 38.2 test. Ideas?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hmmmmm.gif Size: 53 KB
  • #18,383
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:43pm Mar 8, 2010 3:43pm
Will let you know 5pm est if there is any signal for the day.
Annoying Precision
  • #18,384
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:45pm Mar 8, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting Saxon
One last thing. On the attached chart, we have tested 38.2 standart fib, but fib fan is projecting a current 38.2 test. Ideas?
That happens to coincide with my 150ma on the 15min. It's holding at this point and held earlier today. Seems to be the last stronghold before the 200ma.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #18,385
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:47pm Mar 8, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting erikte279
Will let you know 5pm est if there is any signal for the day.

hi erikte, will be waiting for your input. If I don't see any way for this thing to go higher I'm going to have to put all of my chips in for a short.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #18,386
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:53pm Mar 8, 2010 3:53pm
So far so good,

Buying on the dips.

Will not even consider going Sort on this pair.
  • #18,387
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:57pm Mar 8, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting yorygog
So far so good,

Buying on the dips.

Will not even consider going Sort on this pair.
I sure would like to see your reasons behind this.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #18,388
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:02pm Mar 8, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting Saxon
One last thing. On the attached chart, we have tested 38.2 standart fib, but fib fan is projecting a current 38.2 test. Ideas?
Price seems to be closing below sma34 on H1 so next TF I would monitor is H4.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibfanh4.gif Size: 25 KB


Fib Fan projection of the upmove from lower low gives me a confluence of its own 38.2 level with sma34 and 61.8 retracement of the last swing up. That is, around 0.9035/40 for a first attempt, then 0.8977 for a neckline to a potential H&S, and further down to 0.8935 (127.2 extension) and subsequent levels for completion of that potential H&S.
  • #18,389
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:03pm Mar 8, 2010 4:03pm
The AUD very strong.

I am Bullish on the Aud.

Hell, 2 months ago everyone thought I was crazy for going Long on this pair.

Got in at a good price.

I see a correction coming but in the longrun I am Bullish.

How have you done trading this pair in the last 4 months?
  • #18,390
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:15pm Mar 8, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting doblece
Price seems to be closing below sma34 on H1 so next TF I would monitor is H4.

Attachment

Fib Fan projection of the upmove from lower low gives me a confluence of its own 38.2 level with sma34 and 61.8 retracement of the last swing up. That is, around 0.9035/40 for a first attempt, then 0.8977 for a neckline to a potential H&S, and further down to 0.8935 (127.2 extension) and subsequent levels for completion of that potential H&S.
Nice analysis. My H4 is showing the next stop at 9065.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #18,391
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:32pm Mar 8, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I sure would like to see your reasons behind this.
Why?

If you do not have your own reasons...then why are you trading?
  • #18,392
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:41pm Mar 8, 2010 4:41pm
It went to 9080 as anticipated. The rebound from that level was quick, suggesting that the market saw our currency as being oversold for the moment. I'd guess some consolidation around 9100 then rapid climb to 9200 as long as today's data is neutral or positive. The histogram supports this.
  • #18,393
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:56pm Mar 8, 2010 4:56pm
I think.....DOWN !!! DOWN !!! DOWN !!!
  • #18,394
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:07pm Mar 8, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting virgilum
I think.....DOWN !!! DOWN !!! DOWN !!!
Agreed
  • #18,395
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:08pm Mar 8, 2010 5:08pm
I think my FCM is slowly turning into a bucket shop. My orders are taking longer and longer to fill
  • #18,396
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:18pm Mar 8, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting Saxon
Agreed

what is your TP for short?
  • #18,397
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:19pm Mar 8, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting cesararr
what is your TP for short?
0
  • #18,398
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:24pm Mar 8, 2010 5:24pm
Quoting cesararr
what is your TP for short?
I just exited my short position, having an issue with my FCM right now, but I would think about using the following TP. Since we broke Fib Fan 38.2 and are heading to standard Fib 38.2, I would exit on either of the two white circles. Issue is that we are about to connect with MA which might happen before Fib. This is a short term trade/exit TP. I didn't do too much LT analysis today. I will be back trading again at London too. I did ok with this window today, but due to the lack of volumes I am out for a bit. Good Luck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tp.gif Size: 55 KB
  • #18,399
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:24pm Mar 8, 2010 5:24pm
Quoting Clouds
0
I love your humor
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #18,400
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:28pm Mar 8, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting Clouds
0
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