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  • #10,481
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:18am Mar 8, 2010 5:18am
Quoting soso
Hi everyone,

This is my top-picks watchlist for this week.

Have a great week everyone!
Thanks Soso

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,482
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:23am Mar 8, 2010 5:23am
Quoting PistolDave
I need some advice on whether I made a misjudgment on the adjustment of the stop on this trade.
Dave,
While Strat may see it differently, I think you could have done it 2 ways and depending on how you trade neither would be incorrect.

One would be moving your SL to BE at the close of candle #2, which would have kept you in the trade. I'd leave it there until my TP was hit given the next support was so close. Any trade where you get stopped out at BE rather than loosing pips is a winning trade in my book. At least you made a couple of pips.

Second would be to leave your SL above the swing high and watch PA to exit the trade, again since the next support you were aiming for was so close. Nothing wrong with either, but you risk loosing pips by not at least moving SL to BE.

-Marcus
  • #10,483
  • Edited 5:57am Mar 8, 2010 5:34am | Edited 5:57am
Dave,

I was in this trade but I entered earlier. Here's how my trade went. Note: Strat has corrected my entry method so I'm indicating that on this example.

1 - This was my signal candle rather than the BEEB. CAD pairs like to show long legs on reversals and this one was at DSRI and minor resistance. Enter sell stop order 10 pips below the low of this candle at .9389, SL above the high of candle 1.

2 - I should have exited on this candle given the hammer nature but it didn't hit support so I stayed in knowing that I had moved my SL to BE at close of the previous candle.

3 - Closed trade at the close of this candle at .9339. You can't help but see the PA on that one even if you didn't close the day before.

My candles look a little different than yours but that shouldn't matter...I believe it's the entry at resistance and DSRI and only moving the SL to BE that matters for the success of this particular trade.

Hope that helps.

-m
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  • #10,484
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:12am Mar 8, 2010 6:12am
Thanks for your opinions on this, my friends.

It seems that we more or less are thinking the same.

My plan is to at least move to BE if price has moved to at least 100 pips in profit or puts in a big bar like this. I don't mind so much if it retraces and I don't get the profit after that, but it irritates the hell out of me if I just sit there when price keeps going against me that much and turns a potential profit into a loss then. Especially when it retraces from close to the target all the way back to the entry. I have had enough of that experience in the past and those kind of losses would eat up your account fast and worse will make you lose confidence on the next trades.

However, if overall that is the most profitable way to trade I can learn to adapt to it.

See, my problem is that I don't have enough experience with the system yet to know if it is more profitable over a large number of trades to always leave the initial stop in place no matter what price does, or to move it in response to what price is doing. I assume that I will get a better sense of which works best overall after I have a lot more trades under my belt. Maybe Strat can give me his thoughts on this too.
  • #10,485
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:15am Mar 8, 2010 6:15am
Agreed,

Thats what i do at 1:1 , half profit, sl to b/e. A lot of times if your entry was correct you will get LONG RUNNERS, when you keep taking the proper positions those can be your "Long Term Trades"

Unless Im supremely convinced that its going for a ride

Quoting PistolDave
Thanks for your opinions on this, my friends.

It seems that we more or less are thinking the same.

My plan is to at least move to BE if price has moved to at least 100 pips in profit or puts in a big bar like this. I don't mind so much if it retraces and I don't get the profit after that, but it irritates the hell out of me if I just sit there when price keeps going against me that much and turns a potential profit into a loss then. Especially when it retraces from close to the target all the way back to the entry. I have had enough of that...
Annoying Precision
  • #10,486
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:28am Mar 8, 2010 6:28am
Quoting PistolDave
T
However, if overall that is the most profitable way to trade I can learn to adapt to it.
What I didn't say in my previous post is that there were better trades we could have made than this one.

I believe you correctly interpreted PA but there just wasn't much elbow room to play a good SL before you hit support. By our studies here, I would classify this as an ATM trade rather than a pure method trade.

-m
  • #10,487
  • Edited 6:34am Mar 8, 2010 6:32am | Edited 6:34am
To erikte279 :

Once you bank half at 1:1 then move your SL to BE you are in a "free trade" after that and no matter what happens you make something.

Makes sense.

And after that you would watch PA to decide where to close out the other 1/2 is that right?
  • #10,488
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:40am Mar 8, 2010 6:40am
Agree with you soso.It is all about the discipline that you and strat were talking some posts earlier,to wait and watch PA at a certain price's level.
My humble opinion.
  • #10,489
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:47am Mar 8, 2010 6:47am
Correct,

But its not really "Free", because if you dont place these positions correctly your sl is losing a WHOLE position and your initial profit is only HALF a position.

You should place these positions correctly so you can let the other half become your long term "TREND" trades, these half positions should accumulate as you keep entering into the direction of the trend and usually turn out to be extremely profitable if held for a long time with the main trend.

You will have to decide for yourself when to close, look at PA and research how you could have optimally let these trades run without getting out to early.

Quoting PistolDave
To erikte279 :

Once you bank half at 1:1 then move your SL to BE you are in a "free trade" after that and no matter what happens you make something.

Makes sense.

And after that you would watch PA to decide where to close out the other 1/2 is that right?
Annoying Precision
  • #10,490
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:54am Mar 8, 2010 6:54am
Quoting mstandifer
What I didn't say in my previous post is that there were better trades we could have made than this one.

I believe you correctly interpreted PA but there just wasn't much elbow room to play a good SL before you hit support. By our studies here, I would classify this as an ATM trade rather than a pure method trade.

-m
I agree. Looking back at it with 20/20 hindsight I should have expected a bounce near the 0.9285 (last swing low close) area since there was strong rejection off the 0.9224 level twice already on the last two swing lows. If I had recognized that and considered the potential gain was only 75 pips then I would not have entered. I assume a more experienced trader would have known that when they saw the swing low on February 05 couldn't close lower than the swing low on December 23 2009.

Oh well, it was one to learn from I suppose.
  • #10,491
  • Mar 8, 2010 7:33am Mar 8, 2010 7:33am
Quoting mstandifer
Missed TP by 4 pips....
Marcus, I meant to mention this but forgot.

Your entries were very good and spot on!

Notice how when PASR sets up, like pairs all move in unison at the same time.

HOWEVER:

You took 3 AUD trades, 2 EUR trades and 3 JPY trades AT THE SAME TIME.

You were lucky this time because you correctly identified PASR and PRICE moved in your favour.

If you had got this wrong OR if some news came out and screwed everything up and PRICE moved against you, you have triple, double and triple DAMAGE compounding to wipe out your account!

Where you are in your trading career, you should only be trading one of each like pair.

Go back and read Nicola’s excellent post on pair diversification and take note AND, in future, trade accordingly.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,492
  • Mar 8, 2010 7:55am Mar 8, 2010 7:55am
Quoting PistolDave
I need some advice on whether I made a misjudgment on the adjustment of the stop on this trade.

I entered short on a BEEB at resistance and downtrend line....
Dave,

Your real problem is incorrect identification of support.

My support on this is at 0.9265 and I took it from what I saw on Feb 12, Feb 08, Dec 29, Dec 28, Dec 23 and Dec 22 on the Worker.

Based on this, the move from the high of Feb 26 to support is 200 pips (ish).

The BEOB on March 01 was 135 pips – more than half the potential move!

This disqualified it as a trade for me.

If I had traded it, I would have set a TP about 20 pips higher than support to exit all positions.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,493
  • Mar 8, 2010 8:21am Mar 8, 2010 8:21am
Quoting CrudeCraig
I just wanted to post this chart up to show how beautiful PASR can be!
Thanks Craig, a beautiful example indeed!

Let me use this chart to take the opportunity to remind students that a PRICE which is tested as BOTH support and resistance is very strong and reliable.

Look at 63.25 PRICE.

The first two arrows show PRICE acting as resistance. There should also be an arrow on Jul 28 showing resistance. Then there are four arrows showing the same PRICE as support. There is also more support Aug 13 to 21 and Jan 26 to Feb 01.

Look at psycho 60.00 PRICE (60.50 on my data).

The first two arrows show PRICE acting as resistance. The next two arrows show the same PRICE acting as support. There is also support around Jul 01.

Pay particular attention to support on Nov 26. That hammer made quite a statement!

Although you might not see it, or think it, there is more support on Feb 04 thru Feb 08, Feb 25 and lastly at March 04.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,494
  • Mar 8, 2010 8:58am Mar 8, 2010 8:58am
Quoting strat
Go back and read Nicola’s excellent post on pair diversification and take note AND, in future, trade accordingly.
Noted and added to my checklist.

Quoting elitejets
I can tell you what I do so I don't have too much correlated risk out there.
  • #10,495
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:41pm Mar 8, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting strat
Dave,...
I agree. I can see that now. It looked at the time as if price would be more likely to make it down to the 0.9225 area. I basically overlooked the closer support because I was focused on the lower one. In that case the R:R was about 1:1 and it looked ok in that case. Not a very well thought out trade in retrospect.

On to the next one.
  • #10,496
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:57am Mar 9, 2010 2:57am
Have found this recently and decided to give it a go...Entered on a pullback.
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  • #10,497
  • Mar 9, 2010 3:03am Mar 9, 2010 3:03am
Apology to mr Strat he can remove them if he decides to do so.
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  • #10,498
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:36am Mar 9, 2010 4:36am
Quoting kratun
Apology to mr Strat he can remove them if he decides to do so.
Uh-oh
  • #10,499
  • Mar 9, 2010 4:47am Mar 9, 2010 4:47am
Quoting Alexandra
Was is Strat who said no need to rush into the Euro?
Listen to mr Strat don't make a fool of yourself...
  • #10,500
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:55am Mar 9, 2010 5:55am
Quoting kratun
Listen to mr Strat don't make a fool of yourself...
This ought to be good.
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