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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #10,581
  • Edited 2:46am Mar 8, 2010 1:21am | Edited 2:46am
Quoting zarraman
Set up your charts on the Daily. The trend is down
Draw a line connecting up the highs from 5109 and 4579. See the line? That is your resistance line.
The euro is attempting to get to that resistance line. When it does, the system says sell.
If you are buying on the hope that the Euro is going to get to the line, you are trading counter trend.
Other jacko members can add to this.
Zarraman is correct

Although , i would like to expand a bit my previous post. I dont have my trading platform in front of me, so I will be using online charts, so excuse me if there are some deviations. I have my trendline placed as Rastaman said (from 03.12.2009 - 1.5140). Now this trendline, gives a possible retrace on the daily, somewhere between 1.38-1.37 depending on how many bars are going to be needed (time) to get there.

Anyway, currently i am more worried about the weekly chart. Roughly said, this downward movement that started at 03.12.2009 is 11 weeks long. Now the last 3-4 weeks we have seen indecisive PA. Now provided that we see a retrace signal on the weekly , this means big movement on the daily, and if we assume that retraces take between 1/3 and 2/3 of previous move (looking at the weekly), i thing that this daily trendline would not be of much problem. In this case the 50% fib would be around 1.4.

So thats why i will use the greatest instrument of this system - patience. I would like to get a more clearer signal on the weekly.

I have mentioned the word "assume" some lines ago - as it was said in one movie - "assume nothing, because it will make an ass of u and me". Meaning that i could be wrong.

Thanks everyone and I wish you (i am sure) that we are all going to have a nice trading week.
  • #10,582
  • Mar 8, 2010 1:25am Mar 8, 2010 1:25am
Hi Zerhog, unfortunately I can't read your chart. Something wrong with the screen.
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #10,583
  • Mar 8, 2010 1:30am Mar 8, 2010 1:30am
Had difficulty in uploading this just now. Sorry for the inconvenience caused.
Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 64 KB
  • #10,584
  • Mar 8, 2010 1:50am Mar 8, 2010 1:50am
Quoting herzog21
Had difficulty in uploading this just now. Sorry for the inconvenience caused.
Thanks.
No inconvenience herzog, many thanks for sharing with us.

There seems to be interesting possibilities in the horizon for this pair. I'l take it that Jacko would trade off the TL and take a short?
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #10,585
  • Mar 8, 2010 1:58am Mar 8, 2010 1:58am
Jacko would definitely take shorts off the TLs. But I am sure he will be examining this closely.
For me personally, I wil be real careful here. Although the daily chart is saying a corrective move is underway, there r multiple dojis/spinning tops on the weekly.
so let's see what happens over the next few days.
  • #10,586
  • Mar 8, 2010 2:54am Mar 8, 2010 2:54am
Finally we speak about trading.

Daily, there is an interesting area of confluence at 1.38:

-Trendline
-50% Fibo (from last swing high)
-Big round number

I believe it should retrace at least up to 1.38 before moving down again. I also share the worries on the weekly chart showing uncertainty.
Cheers
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  • #10,587
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:17am Mar 8, 2010 5:17am
Quoting Rastaman
Don't bother asking Jacko, I am a member of his private group and asked Jacko a question about the PA in his decision of setting a sell order at 1.3650, even put a chart in the email. It is now 5 days later and still no reply!

I'd suggest putting him on the stake then for such behaviour....my my my how dare he NOT answer YOU for 5 days with a WEEKEND to account for as well...yes the stake or maybe a stoning would be more appropriate.........

Geeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz...............and one wonders why he doesn't show up here....and not only him....I'd shut the whole thing down and to hell with everyone...who needs this kind of crap....

Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #10,588
  • Mar 8, 2010 5:52am Mar 8, 2010 5:52am
Quoting Ezzy
No inconvenience herzog, many thanks for sharing with us.

There seems to be interesting possibilities in the horizon for this pair. I'l take it that Jacko would trade off the TL and take a short?
I believe he would and if price retraces further he would let the AH take care of it
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #10,589
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:30am Mar 8, 2010 6:30am
For the purpose of clarity, I will try to explain the fibs and the round numbers a little more clearly.

Prices move in the direction of the main trend. Within that trend there are Support and Resistance lines drawn using the highs on the charts (Resistance Line) and the lows on the chart (Support line). These are the primary lines that a market will move between. (The main trend is the dominant line)

As a market bounces off a Support line, it has two main targets. The big target is the Resistance line. But before it gets there, it usually encounters the 50% Fib line.
So.... after a market starts to bounce off the Support line, there are two targets it is drawn towards, firstly the 50% Fib and then (if it breaks that ) then it is heading to the Resistance line.

Simple so far???

Ok ..the Round numbers are psychological numbers that traders have problems breaking.
On the other hand , institutional traders like to see Round numbers as targets to hit. (Traders can have free drinks for a week for being "the one" who made the very first trade at 1.5000. Institutional traders are sad and bored traders who are easily amused..LOL)
So if a market is moving towards a Support line and there is a round number just below it, you know that it is going here.
The same applies to resistance lines

Still simple???

Ok the next issue (which I have not seen discussed anywhere on FF) is the probabilities involved in each of the above.
It is all very nice knowing that the market will bounce off a Suppport line or Resistance line or Fib line.... But the real important stuff is to know the percentages of those occurrences. The reason I don't use the other fibs (other than 50% fib line) is that they are statistically insufficiently proven to be a reliable trading methodology. I have traders who show me cases where those other Fibs have worked...but over the longer term, their hit rate for those other Fib numbers is far below 40%
If you don't know the underlying percentages of times a market will bounce off a Support line or Resistance line or a 50% Fib line, you will always have a doubt about the veracity of your method. Put another way, You will be lacking confidence in your method (NOT a good basis for your trading).
  • #10,590
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:38am Mar 8, 2010 6:38am
Quoting Auspip
For the purpose of clarity, I will try to explain the fibs and the round numbers a little more clearly.

Prices move in the direction of the main trend. Within that trend there are Support and Resistance lines drawn using the highs on the charts (Resistance Line) and the lows on the chart (Support line). These are the primary lines that a market will move between. (The main trend is the dominant line)

As a market bounces off a Support line, it has two main targets. The big target is the Resistance line. But before it gets there, it usually encounters...
Thanks Aus

I am learning as I go and your post helps to understand more about his methods.

Cheers mate
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #10,591
  • Mar 8, 2010 2:48pm Mar 8, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting Auspip
For the purpose of clarity, I will try to explain the fibs and the round numbers a little more clearly.

Ok the next issue (which I have not seen discussed anywhere on FF) is the probabilities involved in each of the above.
It is all very nice knowing that the market will bounce off a Suppport line or Resistance line or Fib line.... But the real important stuff is to know the percentages of those occurrences. The reason I don't use the other fibs (other than 50% fib line) is that they are statistically insufficiently proven to be a reliable trading...
Thanks for digging that up Auspip...

Although I am not a coder, I have modified an existing fib retracement tool, so that all you see is the 50% line. I hope some may find it useful...

Regs,

PPP
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 smAutoFiboRetracement_v1.mq4   4 KB | 520 downloads
How do you make a small fortune in Forex? Start with a large one!
  • #10,592
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:17pm Mar 8, 2010 4:17pm
Thanks for that paidperpip

I just put it on a few daily charts, surprisingly....or may be not suprinsingly price seems to be affected strongly by the 50% fib.
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #10,593
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:31pm Mar 8, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting Ezzy
Thanks for that paidperpip

I just put it on a few daily charts, surprisingly....or may be not suprinsingly price seems to be affected strongly by the 50% fib.
G'day Ezzy...

All the elements are there... We have S&R and Trend Lines drawn from the Daily, and less often from the H4 (although, currently the PA is respecting highly the resistance line on the H4), we have the 50% retracement (which we know will bounce x% of the time, and if it does, it will hunt an S&R line, but if it breaks, it will hunt the next S&R line too. Round numbers act as another form of S&R, with prices being driven to/away from them.

It seems quite possible to me that one could tighten their SL's considerably and trade this intraday instead of over a longer TF. I know that's not Jacko's method AT ALL, just saying that (as Jacko says) a lot of newbies get into trouble because they believe that these levels and probabilities wont hold in practice, despite the fact that we have the historical evidence right in front of us that they do, even right down to the M5.

Food for thought... and CERTAINLY not intended to derail the thread or to open up a discussion about trading the lower TF's...

PPP

PS: I also use an indi called Grid Builder which I will attach. I change the standard settings to 1000 and 1. It draws the round numbers in. Thus, with the Fib and the 000's being automatic, all we need do is focus on the correct placement of TL's and S&R's... Just one less thing to worry about...

PPP
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Grid Builder.mq4   3 KB | 390 downloads
How do you make a small fortune in Forex? Start with a large one!
  • #10,594
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:47pm Mar 8, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting paidperpip
G'day Ezzy...

All the elements are there......
Many thanks PPP, good post!
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #10,595
  • Edited 8:47pm Mar 8, 2010 8:23pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting coscorp
I'd suggest putting him on the stake then for such behaviour....my my my how dare he NOT answer YOU for 5 days with a WEEKEND to account for as well...yes the stake or maybe a stoning would be more appropriate.........

Geeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz...............and one wonders why he doesn't show up here....and not only him....I'd shut the whole thing down and to hell with everyone...who needs this kind of crap....

You exaggerate the original statement beyond what it originally was.
And also, I am a member of his private group!

The point is, Jacko made a sell order and I needed to clarify the decision with him. In such a case even a day is a long time.

Thanks for mailing Jacko about it though.

I have sent the original email to Jacko and he is looking into it.
If indeed the problem was at my end, I shall gladly place an apology.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #10,596
  • Mar 8, 2010 10:06pm Mar 8, 2010 10:06pm
Quoting Rastaman

The point is, Jacko made a sell order and I needed to clarify the decision with him. In such a case even a day is a long time.
I know how you feel when the passion is burning. However thats not how jacko operates. He trades for himself as well as a fund for investors. he has paperwork, meetings, his trading blog, and oh yes, a private life as well. The blog is there to see his every move and what hes thinking as the decisions are made, and we have the extra feature of being able to email our questions to him to clarify our mindset. But expecting instant replies is unrealistic. Jacko is a very giving guy and he'll answer emails at his 1st opportunity. BUT, if you are unsure of any trades then you still have a ways to go and maybe shouldnt be trading live yet until YOU are comfortable pulling the trigger based on what you know and not just taking trade signals from someone else. Just trying to help...

bb
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #10,597
  • Mar 8, 2010 11:35pm Mar 8, 2010 11:35pm
EU has slid off the shorter term resistance at 1.36326, possibly headed for 1.36... (If we can get through the line at 1.36051). What will happen when it gets there? Will we see another rebound today, with the lack of decent news (another rebound, just for a change,...), or will we be hunting Friday's lows?

PPP
How do you make a small fortune in Forex? Start with a large one!
  • #10,598
  • Mar 8, 2010 11:56pm Mar 8, 2010 11:56pm
weve been in a range for 3+ weeks. weekly pivot is at 3600.

i would hope to see a bounce there. although the charts are very bearish im hoping to at least get to 3800 where i have a sell at the stronger trend line, and i have a sell 20 pips below last weeks low. hitting this level would indicate the next leg down started without the retracement we expected. There isnt a desicive move from here.

Weekly and monthly charts still have a gap to fill with resistance at 3900 and 4075 being confluent on both time frames. We got rejected at the 50 fib from last months high to low, with all that being said, im just waiting for further price action to tell me where the market wants to go next. If my 3800 sell got stopped out i would be an aggressive seller at the higher resistance levels.

Believe it or not i do trade like jacko. i just cant explain it the way he does, lol.

bb
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #10,599
  • Mar 9, 2010 12:27am Mar 9, 2010 12:27am
That's funny. I have asked Jacko a number of questions and have ALWAYS received a prompt answer.

If you really do want an answer, maybe ask again in case your email was missed.

Regards
Steve

Quoting Rastaman
Don't bother asking Jacko, I am a member of his private group and asked Jacko a question about the PA in his decision of setting a sell order at 1.3650, even put a chart in the email. It is now 5 days later and still no reply!




-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you don't mind I would like to ask about the PA that leaned you towards making the short at 1.3650.
Looking at this daily chart, I notice...
  • #10,600
  • Mar 9, 2010 2:33am Mar 9, 2010 2:33am
I concur with the response to Jacko's 5 day absence. Great thread and happy to have his input 'whenever' it is available.
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