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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #10,461
  • Mar 7, 2010 1:07pm Mar 7, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting erikte279
Check out .9111

after the close of 02.26 would have been optimal timing to get in a stress free long trade imo.
Yep, on my chart the Close gives me 9150, but I agree too close for a decent Long.

Having checked 26th Feb I can see a big Hammer which would have been a good time to get in. Now why didn't I see that at the time???

Thanks for your input. Much appreciated.
  • #10,462
  • Mar 7, 2010 1:34pm Mar 7, 2010 1:34pm
Yeah,

Dont feel bad, I didnt either. I'm just starting to arrive at the point where I have the willpower to "wait" for these setups rather then just trading like a dum dum. The possibilities are exciting!

Quoting Lotuselanman
Yep, on my chart the Close gives me 9150, but I agree too close for a decent Long.

Having checked 26th Feb I can see a big Hammer which would have been a good time to get in. Now why didn't I see that at the time???

Thanks for your input. Much appreciated.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,463
  • Mar 7, 2010 2:02pm Mar 7, 2010 2:02pm
IMHO there are quite a few reasons to try the aussie trade.

Daily pattern looks like a bull flag, It shows also three spikes and two in the last eight trading days.

Weekly shows a strong rejection of support and last week is also a BUOB. Closing over the 20. 50 crossing up.
Monthly being the one that could indicate a range as the 20 is pointing down.Y et trend up.

The rising trendline would be one place to buy the trend, yet I might not get the PA there that I see here.

I also see reasons posted as valid.

Yet, I might give it a shot. 100 pips is the risk.

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,464
  • Mar 7, 2010 2:05pm Mar 7, 2010 2:05pm
This one has me a little


Daily Price has just made a big push for psycho .9000 and closed above both the 20 and the 50.

Price has been making LH and LL until the most recent swing that made a HL which has me scratching my head a bit along with the large move up that occurred after the HL was confirmed.

But now we have a very nice SS on the weekly piercing major R at .9000

The weekly looks pretty good for the short side but the daily is telling me that this is just a break from buying after the 500 pip move up last week.

The weekly 20 and 50 are below price but they are damn near touching each other in agreement.

Because of my uncertainty i will be passing on the weekly candle and will instead be waiting for a short opportunity on the daily that agrees with the boss.

Any comments are appreciated.
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  • #10,465
  • Mar 7, 2010 2:16pm Mar 7, 2010 2:16pm
Would a long trade be considered a legitimate stress free trade ?

For me even though we have the carry trade on our side and such its just not worth the risk. At this point in my trading career I want to only take trades where I'm "On time" and all ducks are lined up, I cant afford to "play" anymore. With every oppurtunity lost another will present itself. Just my 1 cents..., no disrespect intended.


Quoting Spinner
IMHO there are quite a few reasons to try the aussie trade.

Daily pattern looks like a bull flag, It shows also three spikes and two in the last eight trading days.

Weekly shows a strong rejection of support and last week is also a BUOB. Closing over the 20. 50 crossing up.
Monthly being the one that could indicate a range as the 20 is pointing down.Y et trend up.

The rising trendline would be one place to buy the trend, yet I might not get the PA there that I see here.

I also see reasons posted as valid.

Yet, I might give it a shot....
Annoying Precision
  • #10,466
  • Mar 7, 2010 3:37pm Mar 7, 2010 3:37pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Is there a possible Long trade on Daily? Clear move up since beginning of Feb, MAs beneath candle, Weekly up in Feb and Monthly also but needs to break 9400 to make a new H.

On Daily, first R (TP) at 9240, next at 9300. Entry above Friday's candle which is sitting on S 9000 with SL below candle gives R:R of approx 1:2+

With trend since beginning of Feb but CT since November. At 50 Fib drawn from Nov SH to Dec SL.

Comments welcome!
This opportunity is well researched and could be a runner. The one thing that bothers me is the lack of volume on the candle to support a move to the upside.
  • #10,467
  • Mar 7, 2010 3:51pm Mar 7, 2010 3:51pm
Quoting gbegley
This opportunity is well researched and could be a runner. The one thing that bothers me is the lack of volume on the candle to support a move to the upside.

If i remember correctly we don't use volume here!
  • #10,468
  • Mar 7, 2010 4:01pm Mar 7, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
This one has me a little


Daily Price has just made a big push for psycho .9000 and closed above both the 20 and the 50.

Price has been making LH and LL until the most recent swing that made a HL which has me scratching my head a bit along with the large move up that occurred after the HL was confirmed.

But now we have a very nice SS on the weekly piercing major R at .9000

The weekly looks pretty good for the short side but the daily is telling me that this is just a break from buying after the 500 pip move up last week.

The...
Hi Craig: This pair seems to be affected by political inefficiency on both it's constituents. See who owes more money and that. Some people see it going to parity....

Looking at the monthly can give us a clue, as it seems to have bounced from the 20 yet is miles away from the 100 keeping that elastic band a bit stretched out, and that is maybe what is keeping it ranging around those levels for now. As the trend seems to be up, I'm thinking of waiting for it to give some PA in that direction.

Hope it helps (It certainly helps me to write this )

Spinner
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,469
  • Mar 7, 2010 4:04pm Mar 7, 2010 4:04pm
Quoting Spinner
IMHO there are quite a few reasons to try the aussie trade.

Daily pattern looks like a bull flag, It shows also three spikes and two in the last eight trading days.

Weekly shows a strong rejection of support and last week is also a BUOB....
This setup on A/U has similarites to the E/G candles of Feb 19 to 25. We saw what happened there with the sharp move up. I say this because Strat was on my case about the E/G. Not sure that the first target is where others say it might be. I see .9150 to .9170 area. So a 100 pip move, with a 100 pip SL. for 1:1 or less.
  • #10,470
  • Mar 7, 2010 4:06pm Mar 7, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
If i remember correctly we don't use volume here!
I'm no expert but i use anything that will build a complete picture before trading! For the record, refer to #56. Strat mentions volume under the heading Method/Strategy..
  • #10,471
  • Mar 7, 2010 4:42pm Mar 7, 2010 4:42pm
I was the same way about this one. I saw the gap between where price bounced and the trendline as a bit of a suckers gap, just waiting to trap me. I'm trading it short, but cautiously watching the SR levels below.


Quoting CrudeCraig
This one has me a little


Daily Price has just made a big push for psycho .9000 and closed above both the 20 and the 50.

Price has been making LH and LL until the most recent swing that made a HL which has me scratching my head a bit along with the large move up that occurred after the HL was confirmed.

But now we have a very nice SS on the weekly piercing major R at .9000

The weekly looks pretty good for the short side but the daily is telling me that this is just a break from buying after the 500 pip move up last week.

The...
  • #10,472
  • Edited 4:44pm Mar 7, 2010 4:43pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting gbegley
I'm no expert but i use anything that will build a complete picture before trading! For the record, refer to #56. Strat mentions volume under the heading Method/Strategy..
Hi gbegleyhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Great to know that you are following this thread, however bear in mind that post 56 has been superseded by many later posts that tell to disregard volume. It would be advisable that you read through the whole thread to get abetter understanding of what we follow here. Majority of us who post here done it already number of times, that why you do not see talk about volume.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #10,473
  • Edited 6:07pm Mar 7, 2010 5:47pm | Edited 6:07pm
I think the problem with using volume on Forex is that it is virtually impossible to get an accurate figure for it. What you get on a particular broker's feed is not the whole picture by any means - hence it is meaningless for us to take it into account.

That's how I understand the issue anyway!
  • #10,474
  • Mar 7, 2010 7:02pm Mar 7, 2010 7:02pm
I need some advice on whether I made a misjudgment on the adjustment of the stop on this trade.

I entered short on a BEEB at resistance and downtrend line. The bearish Big Boss controlling candle indicated to look to go short, as did the close of the BEEB, which was below the 20 and 50. It was a trade from resistance to support and the target was 0.9224.

I sold about 15 pips below candle 1 and had my initial stop placed 15 pips above that candle. At the close of candle 2 when I had been in the trade for three days I moved the stop down to about 10 pips above that big down candle assuming that if price retraced that much it would be showing me it was time to be out.

As it turned out, price came up enough to barely stop me out. What I need to know is if I should have kept the stop back farther, say with a 3-bar stop, or maybe keeping it above the 20, etc. Or was my thinking correct expecting price to keep moving down since it had been showing good momentum until then and would not have retraced that much unless there was strong demand at that level.

I came out near breakeven on this one but I'm not sure what was the right way to handle this situation and I'm hoping to learn something so I can gain some judgment on how to deal with this in the future.

Thanks,
Dave

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  • #10,475
  • Mar 7, 2010 7:39pm Mar 7, 2010 7:39pm
.9468 would have been my stop after the .03.01 close entry

at this point I would be looking to take 1/2 profit at 1:1 risk/reward after this is accomplished I would move my stop to breakeven and let the rest run.

The OPEN of your "signal" candlestick should be your stop...maybe with a 20 pip buffer. Just my opinion.


Quoting PistolDave
I need some advice on whether I made a misjudgment on the adjustment of the stop on this trade.

I entered short on a BEEB at resistance and downtrend line. The bearish Big Boss controlling candle indicated to look to go short, as did the close of the BEEB, which was below the 20 and 50. It was a trade from resistance to support and the target was 0.9224.

I sold about 15 pips below candle 1 and had my initial stop placed 15 pips above that candle. At the close of candle 2 when I had been in the trade for three days I moved the stop down to about...
Annoying Precision
  • #10,476
  • Mar 7, 2010 9:53pm Mar 7, 2010 9:53pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
I think the problem with using volume on Forex is that it is virtually impossible to get an accurate figure for it. What you get on a particular broker's feed is not the whole picture by any means - hence it is meaningless for us to take it into account.

That's how I understand the issue anyway!
Not only is what goes thru your brokers server just a piece of the whole pie, but forex "volume" is not true volume anyway. It is a count of trades, and ignores the size of each trade! So, my mini-lot trade boosts the "volume" as much as Soros's 10,000 lot trade! LOL!

Now, having said that, there is one aspect of trade counts that has merit....when they suddenly increase dramatically. Whether your brokers server is just a piece of the pie or not, when this happens, it is likely happening across the market. That is one signal the Central Banks cannot hide.
  • #10,477
  • Mar 7, 2010 10:44pm Mar 7, 2010 10:44pm
I just wanted to post this chart up to show how beautiful PASR can be!
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  • #10,478
  • Mar 7, 2010 10:52pm Mar 7, 2010 10:52pm
LOL @ craig jumping up and down.....not bad

Quoting CrudeCraig
I just wanted to post this chart up to show how beautiful PASR can be!
Annoying Precision
  • #10,479
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:05am Mar 8, 2010 3:05am
Quoting PistolDave
I need some advice on whether I made a misjudgment on the adjustment of the stop on this trade.

I entered short on a BEEB at resistance and downtrend line....
Hello Dave,

I've always had trouble with moving SLs. As you know, the dilemma is to risk losing profits or risk getting stopped out early. My default position has been to leave it, and let the original plan run except moving to BE when I have been well in profit or the price has moved across an important SR level.

On my chart I have S at 9355ish and when this was passed on 3rd March I would have moved the SL to a position relative to that new level. In this case that would be after the close of 3rd March. Because of this S line one would expect some 'turbulance' at this level on any move south.

For me the TP would have been at S 9280 and the candle on 4th March would have hit that happily in profit. The trade closed. Okay that risks closing 'early' and losing some further pips, but on the other hand the money is in the account!

But that doesn't answer your question does it. However given the SRs on my charts I either might not have taken the trade or have moved to BE as soon as I was ahead. Sorry not to be more helpful, but it is a problem I struggle with frequently also. But I do now set a limit order at TP and it is so good to look at the screen at the end of the day and see the trade has been closed and some profit made. The occasional annoyance at watching the price move further in my chosen direction can be coped with!!
  • #10,480
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:25am Mar 8, 2010 4:25am
Hi everyone,

This is my top-picks watchlist for this week.

Have a great week everyone!
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