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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #5,061
  • Mar 5, 2010 7:12am Mar 5, 2010 7:12am
Quoting yunero
Anyone still holding EUR/AUD?

Any comment for USD/JPY? dare to short?? Looking good to short.. but red news is coming tonight.. so i dont take it.. it look same as AUD/JPY that i took last night stopped out @ BE.
Looks like a bullish outside bar formed on the daily bouncing off the 61 fib and closing above a big RN. I would be careful going short on this as it looks like the trend is weakening.
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  • #5,062
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:30am Mar 5, 2010 9:30am
Quoting yunero
Just wakeup.. I think its good setup. I missed the touch trade. Hope its work for you.

Hey, you can right click on your MT4, select "Save As Picture", and attach the file to your post.

p/s: I'm using ScreenHunter, It's free!, I can work faster: press F6, select the area and you done.
You can get it here >> http://download.cnet.com/8301-2007_4-9866406-12.html
Thanks for the advice, am impressed with the screenhunter, very easy to use..
by the way the GPBNZD trade worked out very well 300+ pips so far..
  • #5,063
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:51am Mar 5, 2010 9:51am
Quoting Pip Dawg
Looks like a bullish outside bar formed on the daily bouncing off the 61 fib and closing above a big RN. I would be careful going short on this as it looks like the trend is weakening.
You right.. Its flew like a rocket to the moon..

p/s: My EUR/AUD just hit TP for 157 pips..
Trend + S&R + RR =
  • #5,064
  • Mar 5, 2010 10:10am Mar 5, 2010 10:10am
Quoting shahroor
Thanks for the advice, am impressed with the screenhunter, very easy to use..
by the way the GPBNZD trade worked out very well 300+ pips so far..
Well done!

I'm just closed GBP/NZD for 220 pips..
Trend + S&R + RR =
  • #5,065
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:19pm Mar 5, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting yunero
Well done!

I'm just closed GBP/NZD for 220 pips..

NICELY DONE, YUNERO. well played.
  • #5,066
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:25pm Mar 5, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting Custos
New trade I got into
gbp/jpy, diagonal and horizontal S/R level + 50% fib.
Attached is the h1 chart. Enjoy!
This just gives me some new ideas/inspiration about how to play countertrend trades...it is still germinating, there are a some parameters to establish, the price action-based structure to refine/put in place, then of course, the testing stage.....but thanks for being the source of this inspiration, custos.
  • #5,067
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:22pm Mar 5, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting EntropyLad
This just gives me some new ideas/inspiration about how to play countertrend trades...it is still germinating, there are a some parameters to establish, the price action-based structure to refine/put in place, then of course, the testing stage.....but thanks for being the source of this inspiration, custos.
yeah, just make sure that you put the big money on the trend trades. Counter trend trades are not as high probability. But I like them nonetheless.
  • #5,068
  • Mar 6, 2010 6:56am Mar 6, 2010 6:56am
Is anyone watching the eurcad? I've got a hammer on the daily + RSI divergence

Also divergence on the 4hr

Can this pair make it back to 4424? currently at 4035
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,069
  • Mar 6, 2010 7:41am Mar 6, 2010 7:41am
Quoting Olu
Is anyone watching the eurcad? I've got a hammer on the daily + RSI divergence

Also divergence on the 4hr

Can this pair make it back to 4424? currently at 4035
It probably can, but this is really a pure counter trend trade. Wouldn't bet my house on that one. I think trades with the trend will give you better pobability.
  • #5,070
  • Mar 6, 2010 8:56am Mar 6, 2010 8:56am
Thanks for your reply custos

it is indeed a pure counter trade. That is why I picked the nearest significant top as a possible target. No beting the house on this one just nibbling...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,071
  • Edited 4:44pm Mar 6, 2010 11:17am | Edited 4:44pm
I know I play around with a lot of things, but I think in trading it is important to always look for new stuff and either incorporate it or reject it.
What I am looking at is going with the flow with those touch trades by just marking up all different S/R levels from different time-frames and colour-coding them. And instead of just looking for trades going with the trend, I would just look for trades that go with the flow.
e.g.: price is testing a daily S/R level from below, thus I will only go short when price tests h4 S/R levels from below until price reaches another lower daily S/R level and bounces off to the upside. same goes then with lower time-frames, when price bounces to the upside on an h4 level, I will only go long when price tests h1 S/R levels from above until an h4 level gets breached to the downside or bounces off to the downside. Of course here it is also always important to see PA leading up to the S/R level.

An example of this is attached. I know the example I posted is an ideal situation and far from reality, it is just to illustrate my point. Hopefully you understand. Would be interesting to start a discussion about that and if you guys think that this can work.

EDIT: these would be the basic rules for the entries I picked:
daily/h4
1. price breaks/bounces off daily S/R level to the downside: take only SHORTS on bounces off h4 S/R levels.
2. price breaks/bounces off daily S/R level to the upside: take only LONGS on bounces off h4 S/R levels.

h4/h1
3. price breaks/bounces off h4 S/R level to the downside: take only SHORTS on bounces off h1 S/R levels.
4. price breaks/bounces off h4 S/R level to the upside: take only LONGS on bounces off h1 S/R levels.
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  • #5,072
  • Mar 6, 2010 4:24pm Mar 6, 2010 4:24pm
[quote=Custos;3527714]
e.g.: price is testing a daily S/R level from below, thus I will only go short when price tests h4 S/R levels from below until price reaches another lower daily S/R level and bounces off to the upside. quote]

Hi Custos,
I am trying to grasp on that you are trying to do...I would start with some initial comments/question in order to get a clear picture of this strategy and what it entails:

So you would attempt both trend and counter trend trades using this method ?

Also, in the above quoted text...will you close the position at the lower daily level I would you attempt a counter trend trade from there and in this whole process would you be looking for multiple confluence levels or only at the S/R level?
  • #5,073
  • Mar 6, 2010 4:36pm Mar 6, 2010 4:36pm
[quote=MktScape;3527907]
Quoting Custos
e.g.: price is testing a daily S/R level from below, thus I will only go short when price tests h4 S/R levels from below until price reaches another lower daily S/R level and bounces off to the upside. quote]

Hi Custos,
I am trying to grasp...
Yeah, I would attempt to take trend & counter trend trades. Well, I didn't spend now so much time on thinking how I close my trades. But I assume I would take off 50% at 1:1 R:R and the rest at the next same time-frame S/R level. And concerning the multiple confluence: Of course I will prefer fibs, a trendline and so on intersecting, but I didn't wanna clutter the chart too much.
The basic strategy would be as follows:
daily/h4
1. price breaks/bounces off daily S/R level to the downside: take only SHORTS on bounces off h4 S/R levels.
2. price breaks/bounces off daily S/R level to the upside: take only LONGS on bounces off h4 S/R levels.

h4/h1
3. price breaks/bounces off h4 S/R level to the downside: take only SHORTS on bounces off h1 S/R levels.
4. price breaks/bounces off h4 S/R level to the upside: take only LONGS on bounces off h1 S/R levels.
I hope that cleared it a little up how I come up with my entries in the chart I posted before.
  • #5,074
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:13pm Mar 7, 2010 12:13pm
I would appreciate your thoughts on this pair EJ
Downtrending
Retracement to 61.8% Fib
Round number 123.00
Previous support

My only concern that it has breached my trendline !!
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  • #5,075
  • Mar 7, 2010 4:48pm Mar 7, 2010 4:48pm
It seems that you dont like that fact that it breached your trendline. Then, what is stopping you from looking for another trading setup where your precious trendline is not breached? Is there any reason why it just have to be this specific pair? Is it EJ or death? If by your own judgment something is wrong, then simply move on. You know this already.


Quoting shahroor
I would appreciate your thoughts on this pair EJ
Downtrending
Retracement to 61.8% Fib
Round number 123.00
Previous support

My only concern that it has breached my trendline !!
  • #5,076
  • Mar 7, 2010 5:36pm Mar 7, 2010 5:36pm
[quote=Custos;3527919]
Quoting MktScape

Yeah, I would attempt to take trend & counter trend trades. Well, I didn't spend now so much time on thinking how I close my trades. But I assume I would take off 50% at 1:1 R:R and the rest at the next same time-frame S/R level. And concerning the multiple confluence: Of course I will prefer fibs, a trendline and so on intersecting, but I didn't wanna clutter the chart too much.
The basic strategy would be as follows:
daily/h4
1. price breaks/bounces off daily S/R level to the downside: take only [b]SHORTS...
I get you, custos, in fact, what you wrote has certain elements similar to what i am privately working on, but i can see a few problems already. The solution to it requires a highly refined reading of price action.

It really will need to be top notch.

In fact, i think consistently successful counter trend trades strategies requires an exacting, precision-oriented, sophisticated, intuitive grasp of price action. Otherwise, one should just make life easy and trade with the trend.

Problem #1. The need to intelligently ascertain momentum.
And M.R concept here helps with that little bit:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5000
(a variation/expansion of the "three rising method" in japanese candlesticks)

Also, the rule #5 or variation of rule #5 here will help:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4994

What other ways can one gauge momentum using price action?

Problem #2. Different time frames can mean different interpretation of candlesticks. A bullish engulfing pattern on 30 mins can be a hammer on 1hour. Because the 1hour meshes the two candles on 30mins into one candle. Since we have no volume in forex, reading price action is all we have left, candlesticks and classical patterns are indispensable. Different time frames candles meaning opposite things becomes relevant in my opinion when you are switching across timeframes taking trade back and forth, with and against the higher trend. At what point, in what context, is one to focus on the hammer over the engulfing bar, or vice versa? The cardinal rules is that the higher time frame rules...but we've already broken that rule by countertrend trades....

Problem #3.
The other secondary issues of intra-trade management, etc, exit, etcetera, etcetera.... Let us take it one step at a time. In my humble view, the two most critical thing is (1). Determine momentum across timeframes. (2)Resolving conflicting candlestick patterns/classical western patterns across timeframes. That is the core here. In fact, if one can thoroughly master these, the rest is a joke. Even our favourite arsenal of weapons ( s/r consolidation, rn, fib levels, trend, trendlines) are simply telling us one thing: MOMENTUM. when you think about it.

My two cents,
  • #5,077
  • Mar 7, 2010 6:00pm Mar 7, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting EntropyLad
It seems that you dont like that fact that it breached your trendline. Then, what is stopping you from looking for another trading setup where your precious trendline is not breached? Is there any reason why it just have to be this specific pair? Is it EJ or death? If by your own judgment something is wrong, then simply move on. You know this already.
Ofcourse I can look for another pair but that is not the idea, I am here to learn hence I asked for an opinion.. I know that sometimes we might need to adjust our trendline .There is a confluence of resistance at the point I mentioned, would that be still valid despite breaching the trendline ? in other words would you consider it as a good setup?
  • #5,078
  • Edited 10:23pm Mar 7, 2010 6:25pm | Edited 10:23pm
Custos,
Since I am still in the learning phase and trying to weave the knowledge together into a tradeable system therefore i would, for the time being, avoid attempting the counter trend trades and would want to master the trend trades first with all the frills attached to it.

One thing I would want to be cautious about, when attempting counter trend trades as well, is the potential of taking increased number of trades which may gradually result into the psychological trap of craving for action all the time (which may be caused due to boredom since trading could get boring especially for a full time trader and therefore....... I want to trade ...I want to trade ...I want to trade kind of the thoughts could kick in .... which can take the focus aways form the trading plan and decline in trading quality.

Other than the counter trend trades the trading style that you are working looks good for the trend trades , however, I would get a better grasp at it only by some hands on real time discussion ....

Just my few cents ...
  • #5,079
  • Edited 7:41pm Mar 7, 2010 7:01pm | Edited 7:41pm
Quoting shahroor
I would appreciate your thoughts on this pair EJ
Downtrending
Retracement to 61.8% Fib
Round number 123.00
Previous support

My only concern that it has breached my trendline !!
When price action dosent respect confluence level, setup is void ...take a step back and re-asses the situation ...the last 3 daily bars have had high momentum and after breaching the sloping trendline and the conflunce level price has now reached the next monthly resistance level at 123.589 and a this level this is a 50% retracement + RN + a sloping trendline drawn from previous two swing highs not from all the way from the top swing ... all these confluence factors are coming very close to each other.

I am looking at price action right now at appears that at the above level there is a clear price rejection ... there was a gap breakout on H4 after which an inverted hammer is forming therefore price is reacting dowards ..i would wait for the next candle(s) to confirm the analysis....
  • #5,080
  • Mar 7, 2010 9:21pm Mar 7, 2010 9:21pm
Looking to trade rejection of 138.22
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