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  • #18,301
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:56pm Mar 5, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting MarcVUM
amyc, is there any possibility of hitting 9200 next week? The chart I posted above shows an inverted H&S...my target shows 9250 but I would say that we are going to end up hitting the lows of the last high back on 1/14/2010.

Cheers
Anything is possible, but i will try this first. looking again at the charts I think the 9135 level may be better for a short. (2nd green line)
  • #18,302
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:23pm Mar 5, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Something to ponder going into the weekend.
that chart i using
  • #18,303
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:35pm Mar 5, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting Clouds
that chart i using
hey clouds, what are you targeting? besides .5000!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #18,304
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:40pm Mar 5, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting MarcVUM
hey clouds, what are you targeting? besides .5000!
just a manual trailing stop, as usual
  • #18,305
  • Mar 5, 2010 3:51pm Mar 5, 2010 3:51pm
Quoting MarcVUM
amyc, is there any possibility of hitting 9200 next week? The chart I posted above shows an inverted H&S...my target shows 9250 but I would say that we are going to end up hitting the lows of the last high back on 1/14/2010.

Cheers

Maybe, but but on daily technicals were more biased towards a down trend. 9300 is Hard resistance and more likely for us NOT to break it (although we could AUD is very bullish long term). If I were you and you don't daytrade, don't long now wait for reversal and short around 9300 or wtv our apporaching top is OR better yet wait for this thing to reverse and get cheaper then long at a good price say .8900 area
  • #18,306
  • Mar 5, 2010 5:32pm Mar 5, 2010 5:32pm
Still some room to go to the upper BB.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT_march05.PNG Size: 49 KB


The charts I posted yesterday also give me 9250/9260 as a probable target (projection of the inverted range of H&S head), which is also the upper downtrend line and the middle line of a pitchfork on daily drawn from 23.12 low, 14.01 high, 05.02 low. It is also roughly the 138.2 fib extension of previous swing up (5 to 23.02). EMA100 has been crossed and SMA100 pierced and price closing above. Given the strength, it could easily push up to the 161.8 extension... however beware, as as soon as everybody is going long, price will most probably reverse.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pitchforks2.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #18,307
  • Mar 5, 2010 6:38pm Mar 5, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting Zeroh
Maybe, but but on daily technicals were more biased towards a down trend. 9300 is Hard resistance and more likely for us NOT to break it (although we could AUD is very bullish long term). If I were you and you don't daytrade, don't long now wait for reversal and short around 9300 or wtv our apporaching top is OR better yet wait for this thing to reverse and get cheaper then long at a good price say .8900 area
i'm so agree with you, for me that use a 1 day and 3 Hour time frame i allready put a short for a long time position. an wait maybe for a month or weeks waiting to the trend goes down. but for a short time frame trading, i would suggest to long right now( a small up trend will formed). but it would be safe to just wait for the AUD/USD to reach 0.9250 or 0.9300 and just take the reversal trend.
i allready short from 0.9007 and wait to the trend to touch 0.9250 or 9.300 to take another short. . happy trading everyone.
  • #18,308
  • Mar 5, 2010 7:25pm Mar 5, 2010 7:25pm
I think this goes to 0.9125 area then from there possibly to 0.9170 area. If we go down then look for S at 0.9025 & 0.8975. Definitely at 0.9200 look to short.
  • #18,309
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:51am Mar 6, 2010 9:51am
Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au4.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #18,310
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:25am Mar 6, 2010 10:25am
Bearish pinbar doesn't seem to be confirmed by subsequent candle, though...
  • #18,311
  • Mar 6, 2010 11:33am Mar 6, 2010 11:33am
If oil and gold moves up, then eur/usd moves up.

If eur/usd moves up, it will pull gbp/usd and aud/usd up.

I dont see any thing bearish on aud/usd yet.
  • #18,312
  • Mar 6, 2010 12:17pm Mar 6, 2010 12:17pm
The euro could fall massively should lenders test the European Union strategy by depriving Greece of the borrowings it needs...


  • #18,313
  • Mar 6, 2010 3:17pm Mar 6, 2010 3:17pm
I am very Bearish for the next 1 1/2 days. I expect an eventual drop to 90637, resistance, then another drop to 90485.
  • #18,314
  • Mar 6, 2010 3:57pm Mar 6, 2010 3:57pm
Although Im bearish on this pair... I cant help but to think that stops atop 0.9150-0.9200 are being gunned.

Will wait on the sidelines until the market has targeted said stops.

Also watch USD/CAD...any recovery there will not bode well for the aud.

http://i49.tinypic.com/331qd84.jpg
  • #18,315
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:42pm Mar 6, 2010 5:42pm
Quoting Saxon
I am very Bearish for the next 1 1/2 days. I expect an eventual drop to 90637, resistance, then another drop to 90485.
I would expect a drop to test broken 9040 resistance/upper sub-down trendline as a support (hasn't been tested yet) and this way build the right shoulder of the third inverted H&S which constitutes itself the right shoulder of the bigger H4 inverted H&S.

Then upwards to trendline at 9250/9270ish (maybe even 9300) of course with ups and downs in the middle of its course.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audup.gif Size: 17 KB


However I also see a possibility of price reaching the round number (9100) or 9115 (top of the parallel down channel) and go through last lows down to the falling channel lower trendline (Daily), forming in this way a right shoulder to a slanted bearish H&S in that timeframe.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auddown.gif Size: 20 KB


Although the bullish point of view would be nearer and quite feasible after the recent activity and fundamental support, I've been watching some heaviness and struggle for PA to reach higher highs in the last few days and the bearish scenario is not too utopic either, IMO.
  • #18,316
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:07pm Mar 6, 2010 9:07pm
Can you help to estimate AU would be rise to where ?
Now AU price is 0.9081/0.9084 ...
  • #18,317
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:37pm Mar 6, 2010 9:37pm
Quoting Saxon
I am very Bearish for the next 1 1/2 days. I expect an eventual drop to 90637, resistance, then another drop to 90485.
Any particular reason why? Something on the charts?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #18,318
  • Mar 6, 2010 11:02pm Mar 6, 2010 11:02pm
Quoting yeri
i allready put a short for a long time position. an wait maybe for a month or weeks waiting to the trend goes down. but for a short time frame trading, i would suggest to long right now
Hey, considering roll-overs on this pair, I would understand the opposite long trade, but what is the reason for your month-long short trade? Especially when you expect it to go up for some more time? Am I missing something?
  • #18,319
  • Mar 6, 2010 11:22pm Mar 6, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Any particular reason why? Something on the charts?

look at the chart.
Attached Image
  • #18,320
  • Mar 6, 2010 11:26pm Mar 6, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting Alex2010
Can you help to estimate AU would be rise to where ?
Now AU price is 0.9081/0.9084 ...
at what TF?
Next week perhaps .9115-20,
in three months I would BET (no one can do anything else) on .9350 and in max.two years at least at par.
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