james16 Chart Thread

a post for the notebook

thanks

Nice one Dan.

I saw the buob yesterday, liked the ppz and fib it was bouncing from, didn't like the first trouble which I believed to be already at 89.50 and the counter trend nature of this trade, so in the end, I passed on this one. Which is a shame, in retrospect. I'm wondering if I missed something that would have indicated today's strong move up.

That's a problem I have too. The what I call my "what the hell, let's go for it" attitude.

Like right now, Im watching GBPCHF daily chart pop up after my trailing stop was hit with a nice profit at 6201. It's all I can do to keep myself from jumping back in.

The bullish outside bar off a PPZ was a decent indication

That's gambling.... don't do that. If you followed your plan, whatever extra runner you missed out on, was never your money to begin with.

Someone posted that underlined part a while ago and it stuck with me. Great advice.

[quote=benji533;3525344]Hey simjas,



First of all, it's important you understand why this isn't an A+ trade, and I think you already got a bunch of great replies on it.
Just for the record, I did not take this bar live, but I like demoing any less than A+ setups just for the sake of tarde management practicing. On my feed, that bar never broke lower and my order did not trigger.




Lets pretend for a moment that this was an A++ setup, it broke, and failed.
SO WHAT? THAT MEANS ABSOLUTELY N-O-T-H-I-N-G !

The thing is, trading is just a complete opposite world from our real world. To be a successful trader, you must have a completely different WAY OF THINKING.
These are just words, and I think it can be confusing in some degree.

Here is an example -
In real life it is usual that more work, more efforts, more time, more thinking, more perfection = always lead to a better result. In real life, every result we get is a direct reflection of our efforts = the results we get are up to us.
In trading, no matter how much time you are going to re-analyze, re-think and no matter how much you are going to be picky, discipline, and patience - the result of the next trade is never going to be depending on these things.

Now it's a bit tricky here, so bear with me. These factors I have mentioned above, WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE YOUR ODDS TO BE PROFITABLE OVER A SERIES OR TRADES (IN THE LONG RUN). BUT IT WILL NEVER GUARANTEE THE RESULT OF THE NEXT SINGLE TRADE.
The core problem is that not all trader truly accept risk. Therefore, the can't accept a losing trade.
Mike is probably one of the best trades I know, and he still has loses. The key is that he know he doesn't need to be perfect and right every time, but he is right only enough to be profitable. And accepts his losers to be just losers because that's what it is and nothing more. He would never doubt his skills every time he loses, and never hesitate to take the next trade because he had a loser. He knows that the possibilities are in his favor even so he can't surely know the outcome of the next trade.

You see, no one, but absolutely no one can tell you for sure what is going to happen in the future. Trading is to some degree a gambling game. That's the truth. It's about playing a possibility game|business. The only thing we can do, it use the technical way of reading the market we learn here, in order to build a methological EDGE that would put the possibilities in our favor. That's all. That's what trading is.
* BTW, when I say treat is like a business and not a video or gambling game, I simple mean not taking unnecessary risks. But no matter how much you would like to prevent a gamble, you can never know what's going to happen next. A great pin bar off a round number with tight management is not more than just putting the odds in your favor when gambling.

Having a technical method of approaching the market is just a very small part of the story, and that's the reason that there is no holy grail, and that's the reason why there is no only one correct way of analyzing the market, and that's also the reason why 10000 people can trade the same technical "system", and only one would be profitable. The hard thing is to execute your technical system as it is, on a series of trades, without letting your emotions interrupt you.

TRULY ACCEPTING the above, is a different way of thinking.
I'll give an example from my own experience -
There was a time when I was waiting to take only A++ trades, and as a result, I missed many many winner runners leaving without me. After such a long time of standing on my hands, waiting for my A++ setup to form, I finally got it. Now what happened to me is that I was so waiting for that bar to come, that once I pulled the trigger after such a long time, I, IN MY MIND, GUARANTEED TO MYSELF A WINNER TRADE. AS A RESULT, MY MIND ACTUALLY DID NOT SEE THE POTENTIAL RISK INVOLVED. I got to a point, that in some way I was truly convinced that after such a long time of waiting and seeing other setups leave without me, I was deserving a winner. BUT WHAT I DID NOT UNDERSTOOD BY THAT TIME, IS THAT THE MARKET DOES NOT GIVE A HECK ON WHAT I THINK OR WHAT'S GOING THROUGH MY MIND. IT TRULY DID NOT CARE ABOUT ME. AND WHEN THAT TRADE BECAME A LOSER, IT BROKE ME MENTALLY. AND I LOST MY CONFIDENCE.

You are not an idiot, and there should be no pain my friend. There is nothing you can do once you are following a profitable edge. It's like playing flipping coins, when you know you have A 90% win possibility. You lose the first time, then you go broke before you play another 9 times and all of them would be winners.

The only thing you can, and should do is improving your edge, and know to follow it no matter what, without being hard on yourself and getting mentally effected like it seems to be in this case.
You did not yet learned to build your edge to it's best, and that might take time. Just read the comments you get on the thread and adjust accordingly.

imo that was a good bar at a good swing point. But when you trade against the trend, I would like to have some more confluence protecting me. Others would never trade CTs no matter what. But everyone is different. Find your own way, but don't be so hard on yourself. I know I tend to do so, and that's mainly because I am trying to be perfect. And as I said, perfection doesn't belong to the trading world in this aspect, not like in real world. It's a different way of thinking.
To be able to trust your technical edge, put a trade and walk away, not caring even a bit about the result of the next single trade IF YOU TOOK AN A++ TRADE AND FOLLOWED YOUR PLAN, that's just a mental shift that take time to master, and I am still not done with it either.

That's why trading is a marathon and not a sprint. I know that personally I'm a fast leaner, and I can grasp any technical method very fast - but the reality is that isn't even 10% of what trading is about. Changing habits and way of thinking is much more harder, and can never be done overnight. It's a process that takes time and experience.

We are blessed to be here because here we can find a GREAT edge that allows you to be right almost every time. But many won't be able to use it correctly. On the other hand, there is probably a trader somewhere there with a darn bright mindset what trades a crappy poor method, with much more losing possibility, but still manages to make money from it. That's the truth.

Hope that helps,

Ben

Ben-hope this works as i have not replied to a personal post before
I woke up this morning with a terrible hangover and a sinking feeling in my guts. For the first time in over a year the first thing I DIDN'T do was open my charts. I milled around the house and my wife and I disscussed whether this was a valid future for us in trading and maybe it was time to get 'proper' jobs. By midday I suddenly remembered my rants and first posts here and could not bear to open this thread. I was cringing. (In England we use this as a word to mean so embarrassed we have to hold our stomochs and pull a face) I read through my posts and every response with mixed emotions and a bit more cringing. Ben-your post has been truley inspirational and brought a tear to my wifes eye. You are truly wise beyond your years. Not just because of WHAT you have written but because you know WHEN to write it. When it is needed most. I just wanted to say THANK YOU and I AGREE, with everything.
Jason

Oh absolutely. However:

Thanks for your support Dan. I am not jumping back in. I will post that underlined comment on my computer to remember. Sage advice.

I understand ... I'm just messing with you....

Just want to thank everyone for all the good educational posts this week. I only placed two trades, and I am very happy about this. I used to place way too many. I feel like a recovering addict talking like this.

No problem Dan, it's all good!

I was looking at that BUOB yesterday night. I wanted to put my buy stop order at 89.36. But I didn't. I didn't like those bar highs around 89.35-50. So I thought, I could set buy stop order above 89.50... Then I thought that maybe it's too far from the bar and if it breaks it might turned there. So I passed this one. But it goes into my journal to remember...
Anyway, congratulations to you for this nice trade.

I have 2 question for people here.

1, How did you rate this setup actually? Was it A+?

2, Is it OK to set my order further from the bar if I see some trouble areas very near?

Cheers,
Mikey

Master this "free" material and you will find yourself on a road traveled by very few people. "Free" in quotes? I did that because I wanted to make a distinction. This material is free to read and digest except the costs involved with the hardware/software and connection required to access it. Barring the afore written contention, there is no more "free" material.
I have just finished trading this week and have never finished a period more rewarding during my trading career (since Nov 10, 2009). The account grew at an astounding clip and my "zone" has been clearly defined. I will improve no doubt, but I KNOW what I am doing and I KNOW the direction I am going. I am bragging. I am blessed. I am fortunate, in awe, humbled, proud, blown away etc etc

More than anything, I am grateful.

NONE OF THIS WAS "FREE"

When I think of the fine people who have given so selflesly here, I can't bring myself to assign the value "free" to what I have experienced. Most of my posts are directed at the newer traders/students here and this one is no different. Where the rubber hits the road for me now is that I can't help but feel that it is time for me to give some of wht has been given to me. What was given to me was paid for by others in lost sleep, lost time with loved ones, pain, divorce, lost money, guilt, second guessing, lost self esteem, frustration and for some that I have read and know the lost a part of themselves. I feel an obligation to write today a straight forward and hopefully a sobering but positive message as I have felt some of these things myself. I will not be able to learn this stuff for you but maybe I can appeal to your present state of mind on whatever level you are on in your learning to trade journey. With all that said I will now make a statement that many who I respect will disagree with. I believe that just about anyone has the potential to be a profitable professional day trader. The obvious variable is how?

Just like my trading style is nothing new -all borrowed and assembled from some really good parts-I am going to borrow many things already said here and just say them a little differently. You see I realized that what we are doing on the J16 thread is pretty much all the same stuff just a different way of looking at it based on our own personalities. The basic "Dirt Simple" material doesn't change, it is just applied according to your comfort level and personal style. I persoanlly do not trade the daily charts much. If you are a beginner you should--period. It's a Dirt Simple
commandment.

Now I'm 43 yrs old and haven't been trading as long as I'd like but I know some stuff and you new ladies and gents listen good to the following or don't waste your time here or your family's time there.

These are the CRUCIAL elements that make trading into a consistent money making business rather than a fruitless gambling exercise.

1.Business: Treat trading like it is a business. Your government is treating your trading like a business from day 1 if you are using bonafide funds to trade with. Approaching your trading like a business is mandatory in every single trade, day or year that you trade.
2.Education: In any successful business, the proprietor needs to know what he is doing. In our business, it is about learning the technical aspects of trading. You don’t get fully educated by reading a book, watching videos or trading your own "fully funded" account. Trying to trade your own "fully funded" account as a newbie in a “trial and error setting” can only do one thing, defeat you. I don't care what your path to learning might be. Demo trade several months or however long it takes for you to get comfortable with the material before trading with real money; when you begin to trade with money, keep your position sizes small. ‘Hands-on’ education is what is needed to even begin to understand the complexity of trading. You are fortunate enough to have found this material and get the benefit of many posts left here 7 days a week. You will learn THE correct basics on trading at J16. Education during a real time setting allows you to keep your learning curve small and protect your capital through the long and treacherous process. Once you understand then you can commit funds to a live account.
3.Psychology: To be a consistently profitable day trader you must have the proper mind set; I got my mind right way before I was able to understand the material. For some, it is the other way around. Without the proper mindset you might as well head to a casino. You will find almost as many people willing to take your money there as you will find trading forex. Simply put, you must be immune to losing money and must forget your last trade regardless of whether you made or lost money. Losing money is a reality in this business.
4.Methodology: You must learn the proper way to trade the basic technicals of forex as taught here and never deviate from these basic foundations. Go astray from this advice and you will find the the second guessing yourself and the 20/20 hindsight as uninvited guests who are in no hurry to leave. Accepting that losses are a part of the business and getting the proper mindframe will insure that you will never second guess yourself because every single trade will only be placed when certain conditions are met, the same way, all of the time, regardless of the market environment.
5.Focus/Commitment: At all times, you must keep your eye on the prize, making money. This sounds so simple, yet you will find yourself while learning allowing perfectly profitable trades turn into losers for innumerable reasons. You must convince yourself that there is no option for longterm failure. Failure over the longterm means that you gave money to the winners. I don't want to be THAT guy.
6.Patience: Patience comes in many forms when it comes to trading. We must wait for our trade to come, wait for the proper tome to close a trade, wait until we know our material, wait for tomorrow, next week etc. Never force a trade. Wait for the proper technical setup. Let the trades come to you the same as any "conventional" business lets the customers come to them. It's ok to pass on a trade I promise. There will be more. I promise again.
7.Discipline: Develop your own rules based on th material taught here and your own defineable observations and stick to them ALL the time. Forgetting or ignoring your rules will make someone else a profitable trader and spiral your psycology down into bottomless mind traps. Use proper money management do not overleverage yourself. USE STOP LOSSES.
8.Stop Losses: Use them as if your life depended on them, they are an ABSOLUTE MUST; they allow you to manage the trade the right way and maximize gains. If you do not use stops, stop trading right now! Seriously. Never assume a trade has to come back to your entry price to get you out at breakeven. Now if you don’t believe me? Try it and see what it does to your head. When you play for breakeven without a stop it is game over. Try philanthropy instead of trading. It's your calling. The minute you do not use stops, this immediately throws you into the category of the vast majority of "traders" who are doing nothing more than giving their money away. Remember this too, a few winning trades can easily lead you into false sense of security. Always use stops, they are there to
protect you!
9.Risk/reward ratio: Not many beginners use this to their advantage. You should never trade unless you have a defined and profitable risk/reward ratio. By doing this, believe it or not, you can be a very successful trader if you are only correct a fraction of the time on your trades. You are probably asking how is this possible? It is all about trading the right way and managing the trade effectively. Using proper entry and exit prices along with using stops effectively allows one to make money on a consistent basis.

I am here today because many went before me and paid their dues. Remember, this material is not "free" please treat it as such. There is an infastructure here that needs to be maintained with the experiences of all who find success because of it. Geeze! How many great traders careers has this thread fostered? What a magical place for me this has been. It is my hope that the new students will find success here as well.

Looking at the 1H timeframe, PA did little before the NFP data came out, then gapped up from about 89.50.

Presumably different figures could have sent price the other way from there, which would have completely invalidated the BUOB.

Many don't trade much or at all on NFP days and would have avoided this trade for that reason alone.

olpip

Amen to that. from the back rooowwwwwww!

hey michal.

You're right that BUOB was in traffic, tradable but very difficult to trail. Don't feel guilty because you miss the trade. Remember that you have to be comfortable with the PA.
You will have another trade around the corner.....

Kissfan, Simjas

Guys thank you for your post.

Posts like that are very helpful for new traders like me.

We have to know that beyond the technicalities there is a hardworking individual who has made his way to success.

That is a great inspiration and a source of energy to us all.

P

Hey woodstock someone asked a similar question check out my response here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=56851

Don't be in any rush though this thread should be your home for quite awhile first
Mike

Hey Anthony

This whole post is throwing me for a loop since you are on the weekly chart, and talking about days

A buob is a bar the engulfs the prior bar fully and closes near the top of the range(say the top 1/4). It must have a lower low then the previous bar, and a higher high then the previous bar.

Here is a BUOB on the AUD/NZD chart you posted

Hope this helps
Mike

Hey guys...I've been looking through the thread for some time now and there is a term that I'm not getting. Can someone fill me in on what is meant by "traffic".

Much thanks ahead of time!