7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy | Page 119 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Big Dog Trading Secret 272 replies

Moving Markets at 7am - 1pm PST? (3pm - 9pm GMT) 2 replies

Question about big dog strat... 2 replies

Trading The Big Dog Pack ..howllll 26 replies

Who are the champion DOG pickers??? 6 replies

Attachments: 7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
Exit Attachments

7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #2,361
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:08pm Mar 4, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting slc12312
I have traded on the higher frames, daily and weekly, but for me, the stops (based on s/r levels) are way out of line and virually kill me when and if they get hit.
I don't follow your rationale with stops - if you are trading 2% of your bank per trade, surely it doesn't matter if the stop is 40 pips, or 140 pips or 240 pips - what does matter is the $ or £ amount that the 2% represents.
In other words, if what I can afford is £50 per trade, then I divide that by the number of pips in my SL. Doesn't make any difference that the SL is big or small, other than I will win less if my £/pip is small.

Money management is key
:nerd:
  • #2,362
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:10pm Mar 4, 2010 3:10pm
Quoting Austinc1972
I don't follow your rationale with stops - if you are trading 2% of your bank per trade, surely it doesn't matter if the stop is 40 pips, or 140 pips or 240 pips - what does matter is the $ or £ amount that the 2% represents.
In other words, if what I can afford is £50 per trade, then I divide that by the number of pips in my SL. Doesn't make any difference that the SL is big or small, other than I will win less if my £/pip is small.

Money management is key
:nerd:
No argument there! Thats been a topic on this thread. I think blindly placing a stop at the top or bottom of the box regardless of risk is and can be dangerous to any account.
  • #2,363
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:43pm Mar 4, 2010 3:43pm
I think you're spot on with this. For me the daily is stress free, as opposed to this method at the moment, jumping in and out for 20 pips. I think most new traders are lazy, and expect instant profits for very little work.Learning candle formations, learning how to plot meaningful SR levels etc requires patience and hard work. Also, theyr'e frightened of losing money, which is natural.

Regarding sitting on your hands, i think you'd change your mind when after a few months on demo, you can see the pip moves that can be traded. All thats needed is to check the trade once every day, at new york close
.
Regarding the size of stops, this should not be an issue. I only risk 1-2 % of my acct, even on a SL of say 150 pips. I will pm you the name of the broker who allows you to trade any size pip you like, if you don't know it, it begins with OAN**
On daily, the candle signals are much more reliable, and for SR levels i plot the major monthly and weekly levels, and wait for price to react to them.

My pet hate is after the fact traders, but pull up a daily GBP/yen chart, i shorted on 18 feb, reasons- rejection of down T/l, close below major SR at 142.00, rejection of 20ema.
I closed half at 139.00, look left and you can see my reasons.
The rest ran till 133.50 where i closed.(major SR)

Regarding the 4hr and sunday possibilty, lets back check , and see if it would have been profitable. Good idea thanks.
  • #2,364
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:47pm Mar 4, 2010 3:47pm
Good day to all,

My yesterday's trade gave 15 pips each for EUR/USD, USD/CHF and GBP/USD therefore giving,

Total of +45 pips for yesterday. I believe it was pretty much the same for everyone else.

Today however, the results are different and given as below:

1) EUR/USD - +15 pips
2) USD/CHF - +15 pips
3) GBP/USD - - 15 pips

Total for today = 15 pips.

So far using this strategy has given me (45 - 1st day + 45 - 2nd day + 15 today) total of 105 pips.

I want to extend this to some cross currency pairs.

Any suggestions from senior members??

How did everyone else done today?
  • #2,365
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:16pm Mar 4, 2010 4:16pm
[quote=pianosax12;3523121]

Regarding the size of stops, this should not be an issue. I only risk 1-2 % of my acct, even on a SL of say 150 pips. On daily, the candle signals are much more reliable, and for SR levels i plot the major monthly and weekly levels, and wait for price to react to them.

quote]

Hey pianosax,
risking 1-2% is the only way to go. Maybe 3% but I personally would not go any more than that with "real" money. Since I started with a $2,000 demo account this week, I can only risk 20 pips trading .1 lots, or 10 pips trading .2 lots at 2%. This is why I try to be very carefull when placing orders and taking profit. If I start to get antsy about a trade, I'll pull out of it just to stay positive, figuring any profit is a good profit. It all adds up, especially if you stick to the 1-2% risk/trade over time. I know you know that . . . I'm just rambling here. After 3 days my account is up to $2,114 which just means to me I still can only risk .1 lot, so that is what I will do. Fortunately, I have been able to pick the trend and have not suffered too many losses over the last few days or month.

Your comments (and everyone else's) are always more than welcome. Thanks for reminding me!
  • #2,366
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:45pm Mar 4, 2010 4:45pm
crazy results this week

Me: -3.2 pips
Pianosax: -171 pips
Slc: +111.4 pips

three traders using the same method and 3 different results, admittedly mine would have been more closer to piano's results if i hadnt have got lucky yesterday and taken those extra pips so i would have been down to -46.5 !!

there are a lot of breakout strats on the forum and it seems people seem to get them to work but maybe those that do get them too work go quiet as they dont want to share the ideas or they might not work and so have left them be.

I think we have all come to one conclusion that money management is key to the game, I dont think we should be risking much more than we want to gain. Also with regards to risking 2% a trade is this 2% of your account at any one time or 2% of 1 trade i.e. do we risk 2% across each pair maybe totalling 10% over 5 pairs or would we just stick to 1 pair until we could afford more.
  • #2,367
  • Mar 4, 2010 7:17pm Mar 4, 2010 7:17pm
Quoting SirSpike
crazy results this week

I think we have all come to one conclusion that money management is key to the game, I dont think we should be risking much more than we want to gain. Also with regards to risking 2% a trade is this 2% of your account at any one time or 2% of 1 trade i.e. do we risk 2% across each pair maybe totalling 10% over 5 pairs or would we just stick to 1 pair until we could afford more.
SirSpike,
That would be anywhere from 1-3% of your total account. The higher the % risk, the faster you will deplete your account if the trade goes against you. Of course, we don't want to do that, do we? I for one have NOT been the best at limiting this type of risk because (here is my flawed rational) I start with a demo close to what I will start with on a live account. That is $2,000. 1% of that is only 20 pips while trading .1 lot. I can't afford to trade higher than that, even though I will go .2 lots sometimes. The key is to minimize your loss so you can trade another day. As some have found out, if you are spread out and trading many pairs, depending on your account size, you may be way over extended. For me, this is why I stick to one pair or maybe two pairs, knowing that with two pairs in relation to my account and % risk (1%), I am still over extended.

I was told once upon a time ago that when you go live, you should start with a minimum of $50,000 to allow for those days that go against you. I don't know about anyone else, but I don't have that much to put up. Anything less should be a mini so that you could trade partial lots.

I know on the demo it is fun to play with virtual money, but when it comes to the real deal, I bet we all will be much more cautious. I know I will. As I pretty much try to do now, risk 1-3% on any ONE pair per trade per session. ALWAYS try to determine the trend and place an order on that side of the box, get out of the trade with some profit when your gut tells you too, always use a stop, no REVENGE trading (you know . . . quickly placing another larger order to make up for the one you just lost on . . . only to lose again), if you don't REALLY see a trend . . . don't enter because tomorrow is another day and besides . . . its no fun to lose pips.

I'm rambling again! For those of you who are trying this system out, good luck to you all tomorrow!
  • #2,368
  • Mar 4, 2010 8:15pm Mar 4, 2010 8:15pm
$management is the key!!

Part of this system method or strategy is to catch a strong move between 14-17gmt when U.S. and Europe/England bank hours overlap after the U.S. major news has been released.

This method should only be used on G/U. However, based on the principle i think the E/U should be considered.

With that said, keep a small stop loss of about 15-30pips and nothing more because if it retraces beyond 30pips, then that was not the strong move we are looking to jump into.

NOTE: the 30pips retrace reference above is just used as an example to explain the general idea of this trading method. The actual pip amount should be evaluated yourself.

Why stop at 20pip gain? establish a way to adjust your stoploss to break even when you are at +10pips then continue to move the stoploss up as price moves at your own predetermined method.

Another $management idea is to ask yourself how many pips on a weekly basis do i want to have in the bank? When you achieve it regardless if its the first trade or takes all 5 trading days. Thats it. This method is not the sky is the limit or mear 20pips either.

This should be some good tips to conduct a self evaluation on how to better $management your stoploss and exit strategy!

Good Luck on acheiving success!

T4L
  • #2,369
  • Mar 4, 2010 8:20pm Mar 4, 2010 8:20pm
good day today. out of 3, 2 hit TP, 1 hit SL

My TP is fixed 40 pips, SL is fixed 30 pips and i go only in the slope direction
  • #2,370
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:30am Mar 5, 2010 12:30am
Quoting roundrock
good day today. out of 3, 2 hit TP, 1 hit SL

My TP is fixed 40 pips, SL is fixed 30 pips and i go only in the slope direction
By slope, are you talking trend line or an indicator? Time frame of 1hr or 4hr?
  • #2,371
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:37am Mar 5, 2010 1:37am
Quoting pianosax12
Regarding the 4hr and sunday possibilty, lets back check , and see if it would have been profitable. Good idea thanks.
Have a look at this one: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=168161
I haven't read it for a long time but it was certainly popular and successful

Happy pipping

Austin
  • #2,372
  • Mar 5, 2010 7:57am Mar 5, 2010 7:57am
I'm away from the pc all afternoon so unable to monitor this today. Good luck, look forward to seeing the results.
  • #2,373
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:17am Mar 5, 2010 9:17am
Quoting slc12312
By slope, are you talking trend line or an indicator? Time frame of 1hr or 4hr?
slope is the indicator posted in this thread, its on 30 min, 100,3,0 and 50,3,0

it doesnt work always. but i follow it blindly. today all my slopes are against the movement now, so cant trade
  • #2,374
  • Mar 5, 2010 11:26am Mar 5, 2010 11:26am
Good afternoon all,

Today's trade:

Eur/Usd: +15 pips
Usd/Chf: +15 pips
Gbp/Usd: +15 pips
Aud/Usd: +15 pips

Total today: +60 points

Total for the month: +165 pips...

After careful consideration, I added Aud/Usd for trading today and proved successful.

All the profits booked before 11am today. I'm amazed with the consistency and success rate on the system.

Gbp/Usd and Eur/Usd boxes were over 50 pips, hence, I was little cautious, however boxes were not extremely wide (e.g. 80-90 pips) and paid well.

I feel if breakout doesn't occur before afternoon, its effects are not very strong.

What do you think guys?

Thanks & Regards,
  • #2,375
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:21pm Mar 5, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting forex_fan
Good afternoon all,

Gbp/Usd and Eur/Usd boxes were over 50 pips, hence, I was little cautious, however boxes were not extremely wide (e.g. 80-90 pips) and paid well.

I feel if breakout doesn't occur before afternoon, its effects are not very strong.

What do you think guys?

Thanks & Regards,
I have entered several trades on larger boxes that have worked out quite well. For me, this systen works . . . but then I can monitor my trades, and I tend to only place orders in the direction of what I believe to be the trend. I have not had a stellar week, but it has been profitable.

Today's entry could have gone 35+ pips, but I got out as price crossed the daily pivot.

Today +24
Week +135

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunterMar. 05.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #2,376
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:45pm Mar 5, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting slc12312
I have entered several trades on larger boxes that have worked out quite well. For me, this systen works . . . but then I can monitor my trades, and I tend to only place orders in the direction of what I believe to be the trend.
Can I ask how do you decide the trend (direction)? Is that with the help of higher time frames or any other method?

Quoting slc12312
Today's entry could have gone 35+ pips, but I got out as price crossed the daily pivot.

Today +24
Week +135
I would say 135 is a good sum if you can get consistently. You exited with 24 pips. Can I ask your method to exit trade, since you don't seem to exit on fixed pips like I do??

Anyways, have a wonderful weekend.

Thanks & Regards,
  • #2,377
  • Mar 6, 2010 12:56am Mar 6, 2010 12:56am
Quoting forex_fan
Can I ask how do you decide the trend (direction)? Is that with the help of higher time frames or any other method?

I would say 135 is a good sum if you can get consistently. You exited with 24 pips. Can I ask your method to exit trade, since you don't seem to exit on fixed pips like I do??

Anyways, have a wonderful weekend.

Thanks & Regards,

If you look at one of the charts I posted you can see a boat-load of lines. The green ones are faster moving ema's and the white ones are slower ema's. The greater the slope and the more spread out they are, the greater the trend in that time-frame. I look at these ema's to determine trend starting on the daily, 4hr, 1hr. 15min, and 5min. takes a while to set them all up and it does clutter up the screen.

I do shoot for at least 15-20 pips a day, and you are right, i don't use fixed stops. Honestly, once I begin to get a little antsy about the trade I will close half if I have entered on .2 lots, raising the s/l to b/e. I have noticed that usually within an hour or so the market will start to retrace, if it does that . . . I will close out. I'd rather protect any profit i have made . . . even if it is only one pip. My goal is to NOT lose pips, how many I get is secondary. Of course, the more . . . the merrier, but that honestly is secondary.

Feel fre to PM me if you have any more questions about the chart or anything. I am thinking of trying another method that has one or two indicatos, so I don't know how much longer i will be using all of those ema's.
  • #2,378
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:58am Mar 8, 2010 3:58am
I'm a little confused as you say to put vertical line on 1400 & 1600.

Then you mentioned the time zone is between 7am & 9am NY time.

My question is which time do I put the vertical line as 7am NY time is 1200 on my chart time and 9am NY time is 1400 chart time?
  • #2,379
  • Mar 8, 2010 4:46am Mar 8, 2010 4:46am
Quoting Sausage
I'm a little confused as you say to put vertical line on 1400 & 1600.

Then you mentioned the time zone is between 7am & 9am NY time.

My question is which time do I put the vertical line as 7am NY time is 1200 on my chart time and 9am NY time is 1400 chart time?
there is nothing to confused..just set it to match your chart time..1200 and 1400
  • #2,380
  • Mar 8, 2010 11:21am Mar 8, 2010 11:21am
Quoting Sausage
I'm a little confused as you say to put vertical line on 1400 & 1600.

Then you mentioned the time zone is between 7am & 9am NY time.

My question is which time do I put the vertical line as 7am NY time is 1200 on my chart time and 9am NY time is 1400 chart time?
Madshark is right, just use what ever time frame matches that New York time. I know it can seem confusing with different charts and broker offsets and all of that. But . . . the bottom line is no matter what your GMT time your chart or my chart or anyones chart says, you still use 7am-9am New York time.

Also, try this indicator
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ant-GUBreakout_V.0.4.2.ex4   13 KB | 976 downloads
and adjust the box settings to display at the right time.

Maybe this will help.
2 traders viewing now