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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #57,221
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:32pm Mar 4, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting simjas
original post-I got taken in to this trade and out by a full bar loss-just getting used to posting and trying to upload the metatrader chart. I cant understand how no one else got taken in........
hi simjas, this is one of those bars that on first glance looks great and can sting us newbies if we are not carefull. the first thing i noticed though is that by my feed you shouldnt really be in the trade as it only broke the bar by 2 pips! that little buffer Mike mention would have saved you in this case.Also by my feed you should be still in it as it hasnt broke the high of the pin yet!?
The next thing i notice is that the bar is not very large, and as we are trading counter trend we would want a more decisive bar, bigger with a longer shadow to really show a reversal situation rather than a pause in the PA. i do like the location though...lots of history around this price zone (check out the monthly/weeklies) BRN and the 50% fib retrace from that big down swing, and to be honest i would have expected a better break to what it gave! Another thing that could have warned us of the lacking momentum in this trade is how price behaved the next day, in a situation like this ( counter trend, not an A+ setup)i personally want a nice hard break to confirm the setup, and when it didnt come and price started to dither around the break i would have been out before a full bar loss.( eezy to say after like!?!?)
this is one of those setups where it pays to take care over the details !!
hope this helps

p.s. i have just gone short this pair from the I3B on the hourly chart (demo)...dbl top with div. n as i said i like the location??
lets see what happens? not the best time to be trading the hourly charts!

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #57,222
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:36pm Mar 4, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting simjas
Well I dont understand. I got taken in and took a full bar loss..
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Sim

We want to set a sell order below the low of the previous bar using a buffer. The basic buffer on the daily is 10 pips, but I sometimes go as high as 20 depending on the pair. This will keep you out a lot of the false breaks(we want to see a strong solid break - as Jarroo would show).

Hope that helps
Mike

Yes the hard break wasn't there . . . (something is not right here), the up trend is strong.

Countertrend trades have got to meet higher quality A+ requirements to truly be effective, meaning the strict criteria that Mike drills into our heads.

Stucture: Beaish PB is not structurally correct. The Close is not lower then the Open. (pass on this one)

Bar Size: Not bigger then or even equal to the previous bar or bars. (pass on this one)

Space: Very small. (pass on this one)

BRN: Close to the 1.0500 but not in it or through it. (pass on this one)

With the trend trades can be a little more forgiving, but appling this strict criteria with them can only strength their support.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #57,223
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:42pm Mar 4, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hi simjas, this is one of those bars that on first glance looks great and can sting us newbies if we are not carefull. the first thing i noticed though is that by my feed you shouldnt really be in the trade as it only broke the bar by 2 pips! that little buffer Mike mention would have saved you in this case.Also by my feed you should be still in it as it hasnt broke the high of the pin yet!?
The next thing i notice is that the bar is not very large, and as we are trading counter trend we would want a more decisive bar, bigger with a longer shadow...
Very nice Jon.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #57,224
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:51pm Mar 4, 2010 2:51pm
It's all here. The agony and the ecstasy. I'm pleased that i'm the only idiot to get caught. Guess I'm just looking for fellow comrades of doom. Just a reminder to my original post. i am taking the loss tonight (badly) I just want to know why no one else got taken in. Am I the ONLY one. someone share the pain.........
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  • #57,225
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:56pm Mar 4, 2010 2:56pm
Quoting jarroo
Very nice Jon.
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #57,226
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:02pm Mar 4, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting jarroo
Yes the hard break wasn't there . . . (something is not right here), the up trend is strong.

Countertrend trades have got to meet higher quality A+ requirements to truly be effective, meaning the strict criteria that Mike drills into our heads.

Stucture: Beaish PB is not structurally correct. The Close is not lower then the Open. (pass on this one)

Bar Size: Not bigger then or even equal to the previous bar or bars. (pass on this one)

Space: Very small. (pass on this one)

BRN: Close to the 1.0500 but not in it or through it. (pass on this...

Swing High: Yes, but not at a swing high that gives big Space.

Divergence: Yes.

The act of being very picky is that all these factors have to be met. Especailly, with the countertrend trades.

The pay off when they do meet these factors. . . . a sizage move . . . packed with many pips.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #57,227
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:06pm Mar 4, 2010 3:06pm
Man- Short is the word. I will never touch this pair again or the eur/cad which I thought I would get the double whammy on. Gread or double stupidity. But yet a great pin at the lowest swing low since Gorden Brown was tickeling Blairs %*&*& . I am not in ANY trade for a bit until I can replenish the massive losses I have taken today. I am now on my third large 'hard liquer; (third small vodka as we say in England) and will respond in the mornig when I am capable of repsonding hdsfhvsdhvcjdbvdb cxzncbjscfdsuhf
xxxxx
  • #57,228
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:15pm Mar 4, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting jarroo
Swing High: Yes, but not at a swing high that gives big Space.

Divergence: Yes.

The act of being very picky is that all these factors have to be met. Especailly, with the countertrend trades.

The pay off when they do meet these factors. . . . a sizage move . . . packed with many pips.
This has been the toughest thing to learn. So many of these bars like todays are for suckers. Some pairs fire them off more than others too (or so it seems).

Two ways to figure this out - trade them and get torn a new one over and over (That is how I did it) or, demo carefully, and pay close attention to the smarties on the this thread. (The preferred method)

Sometimes I see a bar I seem to like, but for some reason it does not sit well with me - I have learned that this is a warning sign. I am never disappointed when I remain keyed into myself.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #57,229
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:16pm Mar 4, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting wh1zz0
Great Post Jarroo.. I've been a victim of playing the fools game in the past! Newbies Print this along with the charts and paste it on your wall.
Thanks wh1zz0.

It always nice when Ryanmcd shows up and gives us a reality check and a smack across the face . . lol . . . I call it tough love. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #57,230
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:17pm Mar 4, 2010 3:17pm
There is an interesting daily Buob in my opinion on Usd/Jpy.

Reason to take the trade:

1)Buob
2)61 % fib retracment
3) PPZ spotted on a monthly TF.

First area of trouble in my huble opinion is the 90 BRN in coincidence with the Trend Line.

Let's see how is going to close this Buob.....and then i'll thake my decision.
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Patience is essential
  • #57,231
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:21pm Mar 4, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting StoragePro
This has been the toughest thing to learn. So many of these bars like todays are for suckers. Some pairs fire them off more than others too (or so it seems).

Two ways to figure this out - trade them and get torn a new one over and over (That is how I did it) or, demo carefully, and pay close attention to the smarties on the this thread. (The preferred method)

Sometimes I see a bar I seem to like, but for some reason it does not sit well with me - I have learned that this is a warning sign. I am never disappointed when I remain keyed into myself....
Nice SP, and you can only get there with chart time and practise.

Unless, of course, your benji . . lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #57,232
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:27pm Mar 4, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting benji533
Hey Yarin,

I realize that this thread is going into 1000 directions at once. Many would disagree with me on this, but IMHO that was hardly a B- bar, better C imo.
Here are some thoughts, going back 5 years all the way to James16 principals.

[right]אגב, טוב לראות אותך פה אח שלי. מקווה שהכל טוב איתך, ובהצלחה

...

Great post ben. wow . . .nice.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #57,233
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:31pm Mar 4, 2010 3:31pm
I want to get some of your thoughts on this chart. I didn't trade it, simply because the close of the pin was short of the prior bar by two pips. But it got me to thinking, what if it had. Would this be a good trade? According to me it would have because of the following: BRN, FIB retrace, good PPZ.

On the other had the weekly chart shows that this pair has been sideways for awhile.

Those are my thoughts, just curious what others think about it.

Thanks,

Jacob
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  • #57,234
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:33pm Mar 4, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting Jcp
I want to get some of your thoughts on this chart. I didn't trade it, simply because the close of the pin was short of the prior bar by two pips. But it got me to thinking, what if it had. Would this be a good trade? According to me it would have because of the following: BRN, FIB retrace, good PPZ.

On the other had the weekly chart shows that this pair has been sideways for awhile.

Those are my thoughts, just curious what others think about it.

Thanks,

Jacob

Quoting benji533
Hey Yarin,

I realize that this thread is going into 1000 directions at once. Many would disagree with me on this, but IMHO that was hardly a B- bar, better C imo.
Here are some thoughts, going back 5 years all the way to James16 principals.

[right]אגב, טוב לראות אותך פה אח שלי. מקווה שהכל טוב איתך, ובהצלחה

...
..
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #57,235
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:34pm Mar 4, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting benem
There is an interesting daily Buob in my opinion on Usd/Jpy.

Reason to take the trade:

1)Buob
2)61 % fib retracment
3) PPZ spotted on a monthly TF.

First area of trouble in my huble opinion is the 90 BRN in coincidence with the Trend Line.

Let's see how is going to close this Buob.....and then i'll thake my decision.

Hello Benem,

Shouldn't 89.50 is your first trouble area? This trade I still consider counter trend trade.

I would rather be more conservative.

Thanks!

PM
  • #57,236
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:40pm Mar 4, 2010 3:40pm
Hello Mike or Jarroo,

What do you think if the NFP report tomorrow, we should not place any trade?

Or if there is any pair that you might want to place the trade even the NFP happens?

Thanks!

PM
  • #57,237
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:44pm Mar 4, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting PippingMama
Hello Mike or Jarroo,

What do you think if the NFP report tomorrow, we should not place any trade?

Or if there is any pair that you might want to place the trade even the NFP happens?

Thanks!

PM
I really don't pay attention to it. If I don't have any trades open by europe I tend to finally try to catch up on sleep on fridays especially NFP fridays. If I have open trades, its simply business as usual.

Best
Mike
  • #57,238
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:47pm Mar 4, 2010 3:47pm
I'm just a contrary guy..

No divergence on the bottoms

Generally in a down trend

The bottom is close to the 88, but check the gray box - trouble in closer than it appears in your mirror.

It may go places, but not without some stomach troubles...

Just my 2 cents.

.
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I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #57,239
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:52pm Mar 4, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting PippingMama
Hello Benem,

Shouldn't 89.50 is your first trouble area? This trade I still consider counter trend trade.

I would rather be more conservative.

Thanks!

PM
Hallo PM...thanks for your answer.I have to admit that you are totally right about the first trouble are......
About the counter trend....yes,i did know that but now with the first trouble area just around the corner the trade management becomes quite difficult......

I'll be more picky nex time.....
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Patience is essential
  • #57,240
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:58pm Mar 4, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting jarroo
Yes the hard break wasn't there . . . (something is not right here), the up trend is strong.

Countertrend trades have got to meet higher quality A+ requirements to truly be effective, meaning the strict criteria that Mike drills into our heads.

Stucture: Beaish PB is not structurally correct. The Close is not lower then the Open. (pass on this one)

Bar Size: Not bigger then or even equal to the previous bar or bars. (pass on this one)

Space: Very small. (pass on this one)

BRN: Close to the 1.0500 but not in it or through it....
Quoting jarroo
Swing High: Yes, but not at a swing high that gives big Space.

Divergence: Yes.

The act of being very picky is that all these factors have to be met. Especailly, with the countertrend trades.

The pay off when they do meet these factors. . . . a sizage move . . . packed with many pips.
Great posts Jarroo!! - This has really been a "wake-up call" for me how picky you have to be with all the parameters for a a+(++) trade!!
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