Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 521 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #10,401
  • Mar 3, 2010 10:37pm Mar 3, 2010 10:37pm
Quoting strat
Dave, your fundamental problem is that you are trying to trade the Big Boss. ...
Your explanation of the big boss controlling candles makes it more clear to me what is going on, Strat.

As you can see, I'm still trying to understand how the larger timeframes control the action on the shorter ones.

I considered your explanation and looked at several other charts and I'm starting to see how it works. I'm sure it will be some time before I can fully understand it though.

Dave
  • #10,402
  • Mar 3, 2010 10:59pm Mar 3, 2010 10:59pm
Range breakout on the AUD/NZD. Does anyone have more data than I do. It would be interesting to see what we are at the bottom of? Prior to 1988.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #10,403
  • Mar 3, 2010 11:01pm Mar 3, 2010 11:01pm
watching ASIA live here..... and it seems to be stalling.

Intresting so far.

The action seems to be turning. But is it just a halt before more up , or is is down down down some more now.

This greece news is intresting.
  • #10,404
  • Mar 4, 2010 12:57am Mar 4, 2010 12:57am
I just found this thread ,and finding this thread pretty interesting and valuable!
Thank Strat for your priceless contribution!
i wonder what is BUOB, BUEB, BEOB and BEEB,it's different from james PA ,right?
  • #10,405
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:59am Mar 4, 2010 2:59am
Terrel

At the beginning of the thread there is an index. Click on index and the acronym list all the abbreviations.are explained. welcome to the thread it is a great place.
  • #10,406
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:41am Mar 4, 2010 4:41am
Hi Strat - I just wanted to say there's been some great stuff here lately.
Many thanks to you and the other 'old hands' for the time you spend on this.

G
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #10,407
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:42am Mar 4, 2010 4:42am
Quoting strat
Between the Italian Restaurant and the single malt you didn’t mention, I got a bit lost. Spinning yarns is obviously what you do best although I hope the woolen ones are better than the verbal ones!

Seriously though, I hope my reply to the Duck Shooter helps. Also, you should be able to draw a nice channel on that chart.
Sorry about the blather, just nervous to show my ignorance..

About the channel, can't quite see where to draw two parallel lines so here is another interesting one, I think.

Spinner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad_j_monthl_channel.png Size: 63 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,408
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:42am Mar 4, 2010 4:42am
Quoting macro
Terrel

At the beginning of the thread there is an index. Click on index and the acronym list all the abbreviations.are explained. welcome to the thread it is a great place.
Thank you, Macro,I 'll check it out!
  • #10,409
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:57am Mar 4, 2010 4:57am
Quoting Donadoney
Range breakout on the AUD/NZD. Does anyone have more data than I do. It would be interesting to see what we are at the bottom of? Prior to 1988.
Maybe this helps?

Maybe it would be nice to wait for retest of trend line and support( maybe 20?), get PA and get atrade? Took quite a push to break up.

Spinner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_nzd_month.png Size: 74 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,410
  • Edited 7:19am Mar 4, 2010 6:45am | Edited 7:19am
This is to follow on from the discussion about the meanings of candles in context. I am only interested in the candle formation here. The presence of a S at 10580 would make shorting this problematic, but that is not what I am interested in at the moment. I am interested in the candle formation only.

Big Boss: DT since August 2000. Current UT can be seen as a retracement to the Montly TL although it has made a double/triple bottom since March 2008. Feb candle showed a lessening of upward momentum.

Boss: DT more severe since Nov 2008, but the higher swing low on 10/01 signals a move up. This broke the TL on 24/01 and seemed to be heading for the Long Term DT from 2000. But last two weeks have been showing clear SSish.

Worker: hit R 10840 on 18/02 and retested this four times before SS1 on 25/02. This SS seemed weak compared with strength of the current UT although it was followed by a strong bear candle which rested on the 20MA for support. Taken together, these two candles, SS1 and the following make a strong Bear signal breaking the lows of the previous 5 days. But they are above the 20MA.

[Checking on the Boss, two clear consecutive SSs are shown signalling a possible move to Long Term S at 1000]

Bulls fight back the following day and push price up above R again, only to be followed by SS2, stronger than SS1. But the MA is still there offering potential S.
On 4/03 a strong bear candle breaks the MA, which then can become potential R.

If a short was to be entered, where would the trigger price go? Could it go after the Low of 26/02 which would allow for a retrace to below the 20MA, thus giving a better R:R on entry, or should it go below the Bear candle on 3/03? SL would have to be above R 10840 in either case.

Please note, I know there is S just below at 10580 and would therefore not take a trade into S in this way, but I am interested in the candle signals, so am treating this as an exercise. I also recognise that the 50MA is below the PA.


I am trying to understand the deeper meaning of candles and comments on this would help me a lot.


All the best etc.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.m.04.03.2010.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.w.04.03.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.d.04.03.2010.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #10,411
  • Mar 4, 2010 9:15am Mar 4, 2010 9:15am
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Would you consider NZDUSD also into this lot?
I have been trading only those you mention plus NZD.

Happy Tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
NZDUSD is another commodity currency and is 86% correlated to AUDUSD on the Worker so you will be almost trading the same thing.

You would be better to double up on AUDUSD than add NZDUSD but it's your choice
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,412
  • Mar 4, 2010 9:22am Mar 4, 2010 9:22am
Quoting Spinner
Sorry about the blather, just nervous to show my ignorance..

About the channel, can't quite see where to draw two parallel lines so here is another interesting one, I think.

Spinner
That is a very meaningful SR TL line - well spotted!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,413
  • Mar 4, 2010 9:28am Mar 4, 2010 9:28am
Quoting Spinner
Maybe this helps?

Maybe it would be nice to wait for retest of trend line and support( maybe 20?), get PA and get atrade? Took quite a push to break up.

Spinner
At first it looked like clear skies to 1.36 until I looked across to the left and saw all that mess from 1989 through 1990 and again in 1991/92 but, at least we know what we are heading in to.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,414
  • Mar 4, 2010 10:04am Mar 4, 2010 10:04am
Quoting Lotuselanman
[b]This is to follow on from the discussion about the meanings of candles in context....
Aside from the candles, look at what the Big Boss chart is telling you. You have a down trend in a falling wedge created by your down TL and solid support.

The sellers are in control but they have come up against a very strong PRICE level, psycho 1.00, which the buyers are defending with everything they have got.

The up moves to the TL show us that the buyers are there but not in sufficient numbers (volume) to outnumber the sellers.

As the wedge gets smaller we can see that the sellers have less to do. The wedge is really the transition from sellers to buyers and the upside break out will occur when the buyers outnumber the sellers.

Of course there is always the possibility of some news or some event which would cause selling and therefore increase the number of sellers which would push PRICE below psycho 1.00.

The Boss and the Worker are just greater detail of the Big Boss.

Remember that the technicals are more meaningful and powerful each higher time frame.

That said, Big Boss support and resistance over rules Boss support which in turn over rules Worker support.

The “trick” is to use the map laid out by the Big Boss and find the routes on the Boss and then the Worker to get us to the Big Boss destination.

If a short was to be entered, where would the trigger price go? Could it go after the Low of 26/02 which would allow for a retrace to below the 20MA, thus giving a better R:R on entry, or should it go below the Bear candle on 3/03? SL would have to be above R 10840 in either case.

I don’t see a short trade on this (yet) but to answer your question, if you did want to fight the 2010 trend, the only logical place is to look for a move below the last swing low and SR at psycho 1.06 but then you have solid SR at psycho 1.05 staring you in the face.

I know this will not answer your question because you sound confused between what the Big Boss says and what the Worker is doing. All I can tell you is that over time, and you can see this for yourself by looking back on your charts, the Big Boss ALWAYS wins out.

Conflicting this we have Dr. Joe who is patiently sat waiting for this retrace to end so that he can fill his wellies again.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,415
  • Edited 12:57pm Mar 4, 2010 12:38pm | Edited 12:57pm
Quote
Originally posted by Strat 10414 I know this will not answer your question because you sound confused between what the Big Boss says and what the Worker is doing. All I can tell you is that over time, and you can see this for yourself by looking back on your charts, the Big Boss ALWAYS wins out.


Your reply to my query - post 10410 - helped a great deal actually. It didn't actually answer the question which was bothering me, but gave me clarity of insight by pulling out so I could see the wood again. I was indeed getting lost in the trees - to some degree certainly. It also re-emphasises the potential 'easyness' of reading charts for trading purposes. Something which I sorely needed to help prevent me 'looking for' trades.

My problem was how all the busyness of the Daily can be interpreted within the parameters defined by the Boss and the Big Boss. The Weekly usually seems very clear, so also does the Monthly, it is getting a purchase on the moves within the Daily in order to decide to place a trade which is the tricky bit.

Sometimes, as in your chart at the beginning of the week of showing two hammers, - post 10273 - an insightful interpretation can come to a similar conclusion even when actual hammers are not shown on the chart - as Marcus argued so clearly as a follow-up to your chart - post 10307. What I was trying to see was how combinations of adjacent candles might add up to a tradable signal e.g. a SS, Hammer, BEEB etc. etc. inside the markers set by the Boss and B. Boss, and if the signal was taken, where entry price might be set. But it was really the interpretation of the Daily candles which I was interested in.

If one always waits for the B.Boss and Boss to move first, then a lot of trades on the Daily will be lost. I'm not saying go against those - if I suggest that you will send me back to the start!! - but it seems a question of seeing the patterns in the 'busyness' of the Daily which can be traded within those large defining patterns. I am looking for the ways to trade the Daily within the massiveness of the Boss and B Boss which take so long to turn around. After all if we wait for those signals at the Boss and B Boss level then we are trading those levels and not the Daily. But I suppose that is what PASR is all about - looking for basic candle patterns at S and R in the direction of the trend of the Boss and the B Boss. I'm probably trying to make it too complicated!

Anyway I will stop rambling now and get back to studying charts. Thanks Strat for your recap on basic chart reading - it was a very helpful salutary reminder.

Helpful and salutary as always Strat!
  • #10,416
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:16pm Mar 4, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
[font=Arial]

Your reply to my query - post 10410 - helped a great deal actually....
OK, now I understand your question. See if this answers it:

Worker: hit R 10840 on 18/02 and retested this four times before SS1 on 25/02. This SS seemed weak compared with strength of the current UT although it was followed by a strong bear candle which rested on the 20MA for support. Taken together, these two candles, SS1 and the following make a strong Bear signal breaking the lows of the previous 5 days. But they are above the 20MA.

All this action is typical of a pause in a trend. The red candles you see are profit taking by the buyers. There is no momentum (yet) from the sellers to take prices lower.

What is missing from your discussion and chart is 1.0660ish which on my charts, is strong support. Since the sellers had not gone near this PRICE it was another sign of buyers taking profit and indeed will continue until we see resolution of this PRICE.

Because of this, there should be no further discussion on thinking short so don’t think anymore beyond this point.

Watch what happens at 1.0660ish for further direction.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,417
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:38pm Mar 4, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting strat
OK, now I understand your question. See if this answers it:
Certainly does Strat. Thank you very much. i'm sorry you had to 'find' my question in the rest of the guff!

Christopher
  • #10,418
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:51pm Mar 4, 2010 1:51pm
Just a reminder people, tomorrow is the NFP, be careful taking new positions until next week.
I'm done for the week, a dry one (again!) but better dry than a losing one!

Have a nice weekend everyone!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #10,419
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:56pm Mar 4, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Sid,

With Strat comments, all candles you mentioned were inside big bearish candle. I think there will be better PA around 88.00 and also 61.8% level.
I see a lot of buyers are waiting at this level and obviously showing by PA.
Patiencely waiting and see it is happening, what a feeling.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-03-4-10.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #10,420
  • Mar 4, 2010 4:50pm Mar 4, 2010 4:50pm
So here we have CHFJPY (not my favourite pair because of the cheese policy makers but a chart is a chart is a chart).

We have all these dojis at support so what does it mean?

We have a Hammer on Feb 05 which confirmed support. We had another Hammer 20 days later confirming support and then 4 doji thingys confirming support.

CHFJPY, as with some of the other JPY pairs is in a downtrend.

So let’s do a Christopher and jump in with both feet!

The first thing we have to notice is that this support is not just any ordinary support – it is Big Boss support and it is Big Boss support at psycho 82.00.

So we know this is an important PRICE and therefore, meaningful support.

The February Big Boss candle is showing that the sellers couldn’t close at support and were repelled back (OK its only 100 pips but a repel is a repel!)

The Boss obviously shows this in greater detail and so far, the sellers are still being repelled.

Now what’s with all these dojis? What do these really tell us? Are they really confirming support?

These daddy long leg looking like things (long wicks and tails) tell us several things:

The buyers and sellers are “in balance” or at “equilibrium” since they have basically agreed on PRICE.

Why are they in balance?

If we had meaningful volume on forex we will probably find that both buyers and sellers have left town on this pair.

Of course it could be that there are an equal number of buyers as there are sellers therefore producing a stalemate but I doubt it.

So what does this mean?

Is it a PAUSE while the sellers go out and recruit more sellers for the next move down?

or,

Is it a clear out in preparation for a trend change as the buyers go out and recruit more buyers?

As Yul Bryner said in “The King and I”, It’s a puzzlement!

What we do know is that with this being significant, meaningful support, whatever happens here will be the start of something big.

With the majority of JPY pairs being in similar positions and with BOJ not liking a strong yen, my gut tells me that support will hold and a move North is in the works.

Trouble is though some of my gut feelings end in gas releases so it’s not really worth anything!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy.gif Size: 32 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
4 traders viewing now