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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #4,981
  • Mar 4, 2010 1:36am Mar 4, 2010 1:36am
Quoting EntropyLad
Guess where the NZD/CAD is right now?

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1267483340

I hope you took it, I dont have it on my crazy platform... As soon as my capital releases I am off to another broker for sure... My spreads are rediculous on some of the pairs...
  • #4,982
  • Edited 2:06am Mar 4, 2010 1:42am | Edited 2:06am
I cannot bring myself to TT EUR/USD at 1.3650 and EUR/AUD at 1.5200. London open may mess up things....shame though.

Yes, i took the NZD/CAD...That was my chart. I posted it. It has already went past the projected pattern PT.

EDIT: I think i will just have to wait for 1.5450 for EUR/AUD...and the 1, 2, 3 formation 1hr/15MINS on eur/usd

EDIT 2: I need a solid, bpc for EUR/CAD under 1.4100 h4/h1. The daily chart shows me that what i am seeing under H4, may just be a hammer formation. scary.

See the pennant formation in EUR/GBP on h4?

More edit: Watching the GBP/USD h4 or h1 with amusement....bloody RED news coming straight up.
  • #4,983
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:00am Mar 4, 2010 2:00am
Quoting EntropyLad
I cannot bring myself to TT EUR/USD at...


I see what you mean, it is very clear.
  • #4,984
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:08am Mar 4, 2010 2:08am
Quoting Paulette
[/i]

I see what you mean, it is very clear.
EUR/USD at 1.3650 and EUR/AUD at 1.5200 are such obvious TT points it is not even funny. But LONDON open can cause such zigzags, as such, i had to let them go....anyways, you cant win them all....

EDIT: EUR/AUD already reached +20, +25 pips...oh well...it is better to err on the side of caution.

EDIT: Who knows...maybe i will get another shot at them with a 1, 2, 3 formation.

Anybody seeing anything interesting?
  • #4,985
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:20am Mar 4, 2010 2:20am
Quoting EntropyLad
EUR/USD at 1.3650 and EUR/AUD at 1.5200 are such obvious TT points it is not even funny. But LONDON open can cause such zigzags, as such, i had to let them go....anyways, you cant win them all....

EDIT: EUR/AUD already reached +20, +25 pips...oh well...it is better to err on the side of caution.

EDIT: Who knows...maybe i will get another shot at them with a 1, 2, 3 formation.

Anybody seeing anything interesting?
can you post a chart on eur/usd? Which fib is coinciding with 1.3650? cause no matter how I draw them 1.3650 won't get touched by a fib. I am looking at the h4 chart.
  • #4,986
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:26am Mar 4, 2010 2:26am
yeah, and I don't see anything interesting. I would be looking to go long on the eur/usd at 1.3594
  • #4,987
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:32am Mar 4, 2010 2:32am
Quoting Custos
can you post a chart on eur/usd? Which fib is coinciding with 1.3650? cause no matter how I draw them 1.3650 won't get touched by a fib. I am looking at the h4 chart.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1267691524
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd tt.gif Size: 57 KB
  • #4,988
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:41am Mar 4, 2010 2:41am
Quoting EntropyLad
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1267691524
okay, you were looking at the h1 chart. yeah I can see your reasoning. For me the increase was a little steep, thats why I was looking at h4. And yes you are right, the area you marked would be much more interesting for me.
  • #4,989
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:51am Mar 4, 2010 2:51am
I am playing around with something new. A method to guide me where to place my stops with touch trades.

First of all, price doesn't stop right to the pip when reaching a fib, but I was thinking, why not extending the fib by 2.36.
The chart attached shows what I am playing around with. I was thinking of adding to each fib level a stop loss level which is 2.36% away from the fib level.
Why 2.36%? Cause 23.6% is the lowest fib number and to get a stop level you just add for example: 38.2+2.36=40.56.

However, I am still looking if 2.36% is ideal or if I should use a higher fib number. Hope you understand what I am trying to accomplish here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h1 4.3.2010.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #4,990
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:58am Mar 4, 2010 2:58am
i am hating USD/CAD 1hr/15mins right now.....
  • #4,991
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:04am Mar 4, 2010 3:04am
Quoting Custos
I am playing around with something new. A method to guide me where to place my stops with touch trades.

First of all, price doesn't stop right to the pip when reaching a fib, but I was thinking, why not extending the fib by 2.36.
The chart attached shows what I am playing around with. I was thinking of adding to each fib level a stop loss level which is 2.36% away from the fib level.
Why 2.36%? Cause 23.6% is the lowest fib number and to get a stop level you just add for example: 38.2+2.36=40.56.

However, I am still looking if 2.36% is ideal...
Hmmm....i will have to disagree here, sniper-master. The FIB levels are the FIB levels...they are based on fibbonacci. I dont want to tweak them. I understand the why you suggested tweaking the FIB level -- nailing entry is difficult(isnt it always?), that is why i go with a tight, focused consolidation of fib, rn, and s/r within +15 to 10 pips of each other, then enter at +/-5pips of RN. That is rigid, but..it is fine with me...I have made a few adjustment to my TT rules(scale down the 100 pips swing high/low to 50 pips minimum #2, use the 2nd TT point if two are back to back #3. Extend the SL from 20/25 pips to 25/30 pips....)
  • #4,992
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:10am Mar 4, 2010 3:10am
Quoting EntropyLad
Hmmm....i will have to disagree here, sniper-master. The FIB levels are the FIB levels...they are based on fibbonacci. I dont want to tweak them. I understand the why you suggested tweaking the FIB level -- nailing entry is difficult(isnt it always?), that is why i go with a tight, focused consolidation of fib, rn, and s/r within +15 to 10 pips of each other, then enter at +/-5pips of RN. That is rigid, but..it is fine with me...I have made a few adjustment to my TT rules(scale down the 100 pips swing high/low to 50 pips minimum #2, use the 2nd...
hm, I know what you mean. Just thought that if the fibs can point me to an entry, maybe they can point me to a stop level too.
  • #4,993
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:16am Mar 4, 2010 3:16am
Quoting EntropyLad
I cannot bring myself to TT EUR/USD at...
Hello Entropy,

How do you draw the pennant pattern? can you post a chart?
Trend + S&R + RR =
  • #4,994
  • Edited 6:00pm Mar 4, 2010 3:33am | Edited 6:00pm
Like i said before, this is not the definitive rule on TT trades(you will need to ask CUSTOS about that...these are just the set of rules i am comfortable with...)

Entropy TT rules(the final version)

#1. Look for slanted trendline, swings, and 3 SMA alignment to determine trend direction on WEEKLY --> DAILY--> H4. Always trade in direction of the trend.

#2. Look for pristine, clear, solid, horizontal S/R consolidation sitting obviously at RN levels. Ignore all other levels and consolidations, regardless of how good looking. (for what a true S/R level is suppose to look like, consult this link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=22 )

#3. Look for one of these exact FIB levels(38, 50, 61) closely sitting within a range of +/- 15 pips from that RN and S/R consolidation. It must not be more than +/- 15 pips. No deviation. The tighter the better.

#4. Any random price action consolidation right in front of expected entry point must be at least 30 pips away from that entry point. Again, no deviation.

#5. And any breakout from that random price action consolidation in rule #4 must take at least TWO candlesticks to reach expected entry point, otherwise, the momentum is too high when the distance between consolidation and entry is covered in just one single candle move. Another thing to watch for is the Momentum Ratio (For more on M.R., consult this link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5000 )

#6. Entry point is +/- 5 pips off that RN. SL = -25 to -30 pips away from entry. 1st PT = +20 to +30 pips away from entry. If there are two obvious entry point levels, back to back, go with the 2nd one. If there are three entry levels, back to back to back, still go with the 2nd one.

#7. The distance between the close of the swing low/high and entry point must be at least 50 pips. No deviation.

#8. Avoid any trade that sets you against recent H4, D1, W1 slanted trendline breaks, as these breaks may spur slanted trendline collapse momentum moves.

#9. Avoid red-labeled and orange-labeled news by at least 2hrs. Avoid INTEREST RATE DAYS.

#10. Avoid bank holidays.

(more research: I am still working on whether, rule #4 and #5 can be ignored if a solid hammer formation or inverted hammer formation with lots of SPACE is formed at entry on the 1hr chart. Another candlesticks pattern to consider is the ENGULFING BAR. )

Also, custos suggest using S/R levels on lower time frames to tighten SL than 20 or 25 pips. That is another area of research i will demo.
  • #4,995
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:36am Mar 4, 2010 3:36am
Quoting yunero
Hello Entropy,

How do you draw the pennant pattern? can you post a chart?
i believe Entropy is referring to this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pennant eurgbp 040310.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #4,996
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:38am Mar 4, 2010 3:38am
Quoting Custos
hm, I know what you mean. Just thought that if the fibs can point me to an entry, maybe they can point me to a stop level too.

That makes sense, i mean, why not? S/R levels are flip side of the same coin. Now, i am confused. i thought your question was about entry...now, it is about exit?

ADDENDUM: I mean, if you are trying to determine exit point by looking for confluence points of S/R, RN, FIB LEVEL, TRENDLINE standing in the way of your trade and looking for a safe margin to exit before price hit that level. yeah. I do that all the time. That makes sense. But tweaking the fib levels to accomplish that result is what i dont understand. using fib level or fib projection levels, that is cool. But creating a new parameters of fib levels...well, i dont know about that. That was the point i was trying to make.
  • #4,997
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:45am Mar 4, 2010 3:45am
Quoting A 5
i believe Entropy is referring to this
Thanks.. just curious on how to draw the pattern.. based on theory, the price (EURGBP) should break to upside, right?

p/s: i see the same pattern on GBPCHF H4
Trend + S&R + RR =
  • #4,998
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:45am Mar 4, 2010 3:45am
Quoting EntropyLad
Like i said before, this is not the definitive rule on TT trades(you will need to ask CUSTOS about that...these are just the set of rules i am comfortable with...)

Entropy TT rules(the final version)

#1. Look for slanted trendline, swings, and 3 SMA alignment to determine trend direction on WEEKLY --> DAILY--> H4. Always trade in direction of the trend.

#2. Look for pristine, clear, solid, horizontal S/R consolidation sitting obviously at RN levels. Ignore all other levels and consolidations, regardless of how good looking. (for what a...
I would avoid the fixed stop loss settings, just look for a next minor S/R level on lower time-frames to determine your stop loss. Cause you obviously can't always have a 25 to 30 pip stop loss on h1 versus daily setup for example. Always depends on what the chart gives you.
  • #4,999
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:55am Mar 4, 2010 3:55am
Quoting Custos
I would avoid the fixed stop loss settings, just look for a next minor S/R level on lower time-frames to determine your stop loss. Cause you obviously can't always have a 25 to 30 pip stop loss on h1 versus daily setup for example. Always depends on what the chart gives you.
I can see the logic of what you are saying, but i will have to diverge. I mean, it make sense to place SL behind s/r levels on lower time frames. However, from my little observation, when you have such tight confluence of S/R, RN, FIB level within 15 pips or 10 pips of each other, with price coming to those levels with weaker momentum....i have yet to see a single case where price action exceeded that RN by 20 pips, either on the daily or h4.
  • #5,000
  • Edited 4:24am Mar 4, 2010 3:58am | Edited 4:24am
MOMENTUM RATIO( aka M.R)

Sometimes, i also like to look for ratio of candles. If it takes 6 candles to retrace from point A to point B, but it now take 3 candles to go from point B back to point A, it behooves me to think that the direction of those 3 candles(B to A) have greater momentum, as such, may breach, exceed and go further than previously expected point A. Especially, if the ratio is 50%(e.g. 6 to 3 candles) or lesser(e.g. 6 to 2 or 6 to 1 candles). Just my two cents from my little observations in the market.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1267698200
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 18th1minNOV625AM.png Size: 52 KB
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