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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #2,341
  • Mar 2, 2010 4:13pm Mar 2, 2010 4:13pm
Take a look at the daily on the eur/usd, it has touched strong resistance four times now. Eventually, price will have to either retrace or breakthrough that level. The overall trend is still showing a short of some kind . . . but for how long. Maybe we'll just consolidate for a while.

Good luck tomorrow![/quote]

Hey scott
Yes, Eur/usd is at an interesting point. I trade daily, but really the daily is guided by the weekly, and the weekly by the monthly.
It's even clearer if you look at the weekly, 2 high wave candles followed by 2 hammers.
So, the price has stopped going down, but it's not going up.
It will have to tip it's hand sooner or later, but for me, it's a waiting game at the moment. Price action will show the way.
Yes, only on demo for this method, live for my main method.
Lets hope tomorrow is better, think you did well to keep out today !
  • #2,342
  • Mar 2, 2010 5:58pm Mar 2, 2010 5:58pm
slc12312 & sirspike;

Thanks for your support and encouragement.

I have found that SL at the other end of the box might eat up profits of at least 2-3 successful trades (again depending on box size) hence, it has to be a very good (over 70% success rate) in order to become overall successful.

For example,
1 trade - 20 pips profit
2 trade - 20 pips profit
3 trade - 20 pips profit
4 trade - sl hit ( assuming box size 50 with buffer 3 (53 pips) - takes nearly all the profits).

I use RSI in combination with this strategy which I learn t from a friend of mine who attended Ed Ponsi forex coaching.

If anyone interested, I can share it here.

Lastly, I would like to thank the person who introduced this strategy on this forum and all other members for their contribution.

Thanks and Regards,

(P.S. slc12312 - my box for Eur/Usd was 62 pips today but you mentioned 79 pips. I have checked with 2 different brokers but found the same. Can you please suggest me what might be the reason??)
  • #2,343
  • Mar 3, 2010 12:13am Mar 3, 2010 12:13am
Quoting forex_fan
slc12312 & sirspike;

Thanks for your support and encouragement.

I have found that SL at the other end of the box might eat up profits of at least 2-3 successful trades (again depending on box size) hence, it has to be a very good (over 70% success rate) in order to become overall successful.

For example,
1 trade - 20 pips profit
2 trade - 20 pips profit
3 trade - 20 pips profit
4 trade - sl hit ( assuming box size 50 with buffer 3 (53 pips) - takes nearly all the profits).

I use RSI in combination with this strategy which I learn t from...
Hi FF,

Yes, I for one, would be very interested in how you implement the RSI approach.

Thanks,
BC
  • #2,344
  • Edited 1:17am Mar 3, 2010 1:00am | Edited 1:17am
Quoting forex_fan
slc12312 & sirspike;

Thanks for your support and encouragement.

I have found that SL at the other end of the box might eat up profits of at least 2-3 successful trades (again depending on box size) hence, it has to be a very good (over 70% success rate) in order to become overall successful.

(P.S. slc12312 - my box for Eur/Usd was 62 pips today but you mentioned 79 pips. I have checked with 2 different brokers but found the same. Can you please suggest me what might be the reason??)
I trade this system on a slightly differnt time frame. My box is displayed from 5am-7am PST which I believe is 8am-10am EST, I live in California and these times allow me to place orders at 7am right before I go to work. Also the box size although set for 5-7am will display differently on a 5m chart versus a 15m chart. However, I still think my 79 pip box has to do with my times.

You are right about profits getting eaten up. For February, I had a slightly higher than 72% win rate. I limited my losses by trying to trade in the direction i thought the trend was to follow. By doing this, I did have very good results.

Even with a 79 pip box, on a new demo, I did hit for 23 pips before I closed. I'd post a screen shot but I don't know how.
  • #2,345
  • Mar 3, 2010 1:34am Mar 3, 2010 1:34am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Mar. 02 23.13.gif Size: 25 KB


Well lets see if this works. 79 pip box
  • #2,346
  • Mar 3, 2010 11:53am Mar 3, 2010 11:53am
Good Evening all,

well I gotta kinda lucky today had 3 trades lined up

NZD/USD (short) -24.5 pips

the following 2 triggered while I was driving home from work, with my broker fxcm you cannot set the limit and stop until the trade is in motion, when i logged on at home the trades had triggered and had past my usual 20pip target I then moved a stop in place not far behind the current position

USD/CHF (short) +39.6 pips
EUR/USD (long) +43.7 pips

I would have traded the JPY as well but already had a trade running with another system.


total for the Day: +58.8 pips
total for March: +33.3 pips


how did everyone else get on today?
  • #2,347
  • Mar 3, 2010 12:42pm Mar 3, 2010 12:42pm
no trades taken today.
yesterdays aussie was stopped out - 41 pips.

total for this week so far = - 97 pips.
looks like today there were some nice setups, shame i was busy.
  • #2,348
  • Mar 3, 2010 12:42pm Mar 3, 2010 12:42pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eur-usd.gif Size: 27 KB


Yesterday the eur/usd showed resistance on the daily. Could have done three things, ranged for a while, break through resistance, or go up. Looks like it went up. I missed this trade, didn't get my orders set in time as I was late for work. Missed a good opportunity.

As you can see, yesterday's box, although on my chart was 79 pips still could have ended quite nicely.

Hope some of you caught this movement

Probably not a great idea as it is not PER THE RULES, but you can see I am trying to catch a short rebound. Really . . . not a good idea and I will close soon. Limit your loses, preserve your capital, and hopefully all will be well.
  • #2,349
  • Mar 3, 2010 1:35pm Mar 3, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting SirSpike
Good Evening all,

with my broker fxcm you cannot set the limit and stop until the trade is in motion,

how did everyone else get on today?
SirSpike good job today. Up 33 pips for the month and it is only the third or March!

I finally got in touch with FXCM and Boston Technolgies regarding my demo, they told me I had to start a new demo and that the demo policy has changed. Essentially, what they told me was that all demo's will expire after 14 days, at which time you need to open a new one.

I set my S/L limits right after I place the pending order. The sooner the better!

Good luck tomorrow!
  • #2,350
  • Mar 3, 2010 1:49pm Mar 3, 2010 1:49pm
Quoting slc12312
SirSpike good job today. Up 33 pips for the month and it is only the third or March!

I finally got in touch with FXCM and Boston Technolgies regarding my demo, they told me I had to start a new demo and that the demo policy has changed. Essentially, what they told me was that all demo's will expire after 14 days, at which time you need to open a new one.

I set my S/L limits right after I place the pending order. The sooner the better!

Good luck tomorrow!
Thanks for the info, maybe I'll find mine won't work pretty soon then I'm sure I have had it longer than 2weeks.

Do you set you s/l limits as seperate orders? I usually just use the stop and limit boxes when an order is open as I'd be afraid of the stop order firing before the actual required order.
  • #2,351
  • Mar 3, 2010 2:07pm Mar 3, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting SirSpike
Thanks for the info, maybe I'll find mine won't work pretty soon then I'm sure I have had it longer than 2weeks.

Do you set you s/l limits as seperate orders? I usually just use the stop and limit boxes when an order is open as I'd be afraid of the stop order firing before the actual required order.
I place the s/l on the trading terminal right after I place the upper and lower pending orders. I just noticed that on this new demo, it doesn't (as you said in an earlier post) allow you to place your s/l limits when you place an order. Thats different no because I used to be able to do that.
  • #2,352
  • Mar 3, 2010 2:14pm Mar 3, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Hi FF,

Yes, I for one, would be very interested in how you implement the RSI approach.

Thanks,
BC
Hi,

I basically use RSI (standard MT4 settings) to see if its not oversold or overbought situation on 15m TF and 4 hours TF.

This is my personal way of doing it however this strategy alone with right MM tools can be pretty effective.

Regards
  • #2,353
  • Mar 3, 2010 5:48pm Mar 3, 2010 5:48pm
today all my 3 trades hit TP pretty quick !!! GU, UC, EU . fixed 40 SL, 30 TP and direction as per slope
  • #2,354
  • Mar 3, 2010 9:45pm Mar 3, 2010 9:45pm
People, i dont have time to stay in front of the computer during the correct time because i have to work.

Anybody know if there is a EA that can i customize to use this strategy ?

Thx!!!
  • #2,355
  • Mar 3, 2010 11:39pm Mar 3, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting jdcabona
People, i dont have time to stay in front of the computer during the correct time because i have to work.

Anybody know if there is a EA that can i customize to use this strategy ?

Thx!!!
Not that I have seen, which isn't to say there isn't something out there. Everytime i have tried to use an EA, I havn't been able to get it to work. Probably operator error!

Good luck with your search.
  • #2,356
  • Mar 4, 2010 11:02am Mar 4, 2010 11:02am
well bad day for me today but purely because i made some bad decisions on pairs and directions!

went for

short on usd/chf this wasnt triggered market went totally the other direction and could have made me 40 pips going long (cancelled the short when i left work)

I went long on the usd/gbp this lost me -59.5 pips

my short on nzd/usd was the only one that was correct and bagged +20 pips

I already had a position open on the eur/usd but would have been looking at going long! but could have bagged 20 pips if i'd gone short!

I also ruled out a trade on the Aud/Usd when I could have made 20 pips going short.

so for the day i'm -36.5 pips
which puts me -3.2 pips for the month!!

looking over this i think i just need to take descisions out of the game just set up a long and short position on each - maybe do 20 pip t/p and max 40 pip s/l - only on the one side.

be interested to see how everyone else got on today.
  • #2,357
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:00pm Mar 4, 2010 2:00pm
Another poor day unfortunately

Cable - 60
Aussie -34
E/$ +20 Total -74 pips

Added to other losses this week -97 = -171 pips

im starting to think this is no better than tossing a coin tbh.

The flaw thats becoming evident, as someone else pointed out, is that by taking a full box sl, it can wipe out 3-4 winning trades

At the moment. i need a run of 9 wins, at tp20, to get back to BE.

Also by taking a full tp at say 20 pips, you miss the runners, look at E/$ today.

In effect what is happening, is the opposite of that well known cliche, keep your losses small, and let your winners run.

Here the losses are always bigger than the profits, and the profits are stopped early.

Not sure how to address these problems yet, i'm not convinced even a trailing stop will solve it.

Any comments welcome
  • #2,358
  • Edited 2:19pm Mar 4, 2010 2:09pm | Edited 2:19pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3-4-10.gif Size: 35 KB


Opposite for me today.

all on eur/usd
+40 on .1 lot
+10 on .1 lot
+37 on .2

One of the trades, can't remember off hand which one, was a carryover form yesterday 3/3/10.

My opinion only . . . I have tried the "shot-gun" method, placing many orders on many pairs thinking what the heck . . . odds are I'm bound to hit a target out there. Again my opinion only, but I would concentrate on one or two pairs only, this way you can get a "feel" for them. I could see on my chart that price was in a nice downtrend on the 15m time-frame, and because of this I only placed a pending short.

For the week so far:
6 trades total
5 wins: ranging from 2.2 pips to 40
1 loss: -30.9 pips

Total: +111.4
  • #2,359
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:36pm Mar 4, 2010 2:36pm
Good stuff mate, nice to see you made some pips.
Just goes to show, give the same system to different traders.... LOL

I think being more selective could help, trouble is i can't seem to get a feel for any pair yet on the lower T-F's, like i do on the longer TF's.

Might have rethink over the w/end, i said i'd give this a few months to see how it pans out, trouble is, i don't like babysitting trades during the day, moving stops etc, but the set and forget hasn't worked for me either.

Be back next week.

Cheers
  • #2,360
  • Mar 4, 2010 2:57pm Mar 4, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting pianosax12
Good stuff mate, nice to see you made some pips.
Just goes to show, give the same system to different traders.... LOL

I think being more selective could help, trouble is i can't seem to get a feel for any pair yet on the lower T-F's, like i do on the longer TF's.

Might have rethink over the w/end, i said i'd give this a few months to see how it pans out, trouble is, i don't like babysitting trades during the day, moving stops etc, but the set and forget hasn't worked for me either.

Be back next week.

Cheers
Its funny in a way. I REALLY like the idea of trading higher time-frames. Actually in a way . . . I think I would prefer it, less stress you know. I know that traders who concentrate on the 4hr and daily catch much larger moves and from what I understand might tend to do better. My problems is that I have a real hard time "sitting on my hands", I want to jump in and jump out too. I have traded on the higher frames, daily and weekly, but for me, the stops (based on s/r levels) are way out of line and virually kill me when and if they get hit.

All I'd say is trade within your comfort level. I like this method because of my hours and the ability to check on trades while at work. Only problem is once I get caught . . . I just may have to change time frames.

Maybe this system or style would work on a 4hr time-frame breakout, provided the box wasn't huge. Maybe on Sunday at the start of a new week?
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