7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy | Page 117 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Big Dog Trading Secret 272 replies

Moving Markets at 7am - 1pm PST? (3pm - 9pm GMT) 2 replies

Question about big dog strat... 2 replies

Trading The Big Dog Pack ..howllll 26 replies

Who are the champion DOG pickers??? 6 replies

Attachments: 7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
Exit Attachments

7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #2,321
  • Mar 1, 2010 6:59am Mar 1, 2010 6:59am
Quoting [I
roundrock;3506678]hii pianosax12, can you mention your box times ? also do you use any buffer to enter ? where is yr stop ? and which pairs do you trade ?
[/i]

Hi Roundrock
I draw my box 12-2pm GMT. I'm in UK, so i'm 5hrs ahead of new york.
Yes, i use a 3 pip buffer.
Initial stop is 3 pips past opposite side of the box.
I watch E/$, $/chf, $/yen, $/cad, Gbp/usd, E/gbp, Gbp/yen.
  • #2,322
  • Mar 1, 2010 7:13am Mar 1, 2010 7:13am
same as pianosax I draw box at 12 midday - 2pm GMT (which translates to 7am-9am NY Time) with a 3 pip buffer
  • #2,323
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:04am Mar 1, 2010 11:04am
today's trades

EUR/USD sell @ 1.3502 t/p @ 1.34827 = +20 pips
USD/JPY sell @ 89.102 s/l hit @ 89.382 = -28 pips
NZD/USD buy @ 0.6975 t/p @ 0.6995 = +20 pips
AUD/USD buy @ 0.8978 t/p @ 0.8998 = +20 pips

GBP/USD box to big so no trade

Total = +32 pips

I only set trades up today in the direction of the 4h trend be interested to see what people did with the usd/jpy and what profit was taken from the others. there was definately more to be had with the Eur.
Attached Image
  • #2,324
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:03pm Mar 1, 2010 12:03pm
Congrat's on the good trades for the day. I missed out on my entries because I couldn't log onto my account. That was really frustrating, had to give up after 20 minutes of trying or be late to work. Missed out on a 40 pip run, and in reality missed 20-30 pips of that.

Better luck for me anyway tomorrow . . . I hope.
  • #2,325
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:23pm Mar 1, 2010 12:23pm
Well done sirspike on turning a profit. My trades for the day:

E/$ +20
$/yen -28 -8 pips for the day.

I think i made a very poor decision in taking the $/yen, selling straight into support just below at 89.00.

sirspike, if you zoom out on the aus and nz, you'll see the charts are very similar. in effect, your'e taking the same trade twice, nice when you get the direction right like today, but you'll get 2 losers if the trade goes wrong.
Just me, but i'd only trade one or the other.
  • #2,326
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:26pm Mar 1, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting pianosax12
Well done sirspike on turning a profit. My trades for the day:

E/$ +20
$/yen -28 -8 pips for the day.

I think i made a very poor decision in taking the $/yen, selling straight into support just below at 89.00.

sirspike, if you zoom out on the aus and nz, you'll see the charts are very similar. in effect, your'e taking the same trade twice, nice when you get the direction right like today, but you'll get 2 losers if the trade goes wrong.
Just me, but i'd only trade one or the other.
Very good point!
  • #2,327
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:28pm Mar 1, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting pianosax12

sirspike, if you zoom out on the aus and nz, you'll see the charts are very similar. in effect, your'e taking the same trade twice, nice when you get the direction right like today, but you'll get 2 losers if the trade goes wrong.
Just me, but i'd only trade one or the other.

thanks for that pointer with the nz i'll prob drop that tomorrow and just stick with the ozzie $, simialr reason for dropping the usd/chf as pointed out a couple of posts back but the chf moves in pretty much the inverse of the eur/usd so they cancel each other out i.e. if ones a winner the others generally a loser.
  • #2,328
  • Mar 1, 2010 3:23pm Mar 1, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting SirSpike
thanks for that pointer with the nz i'll prob drop that tomorrow and just stick with the ozzie $, simialr reason for dropping the usd/chf as pointed out a couple of posts back but the chf moves in pretty much the inverse of the eur/usd so they cancel each other out i.e. if ones a winner the others generally a loser.


Hey sirspike
When i said e/usd and $/chf were inverse, it was simply to point out their relationship at this moment in time.This inverse correlation will change at some point. Personally, i wouldn't drop $/chf from your charts, for me that has been the most profitable pair so far.
Being aware of their relationship, just gives us a heads up not to trade in the same direction on both pairs.
If a signal occurs on both, then you can evaluate which is the stronger, and trade that pair.
Likewise, aus and nz. Being a swing trader,with the commodity curriencies, i always have one eye on the gold chart if i'm trading aus.
Although, on 15m charts,for a 20 pip scalp, it's probably not relevant.

Cheers
  • #2,329
  • Mar 1, 2010 4:09pm Mar 1, 2010 4:09pm
As an aside, who are these muppets?
They actively view the thread, catch the latest posts, contribute nothing, and log off.
To my mind, there are only 3 of us actually contributing recently.
To all those traders???who pm'd me, don't hold your breath.
Leeches is the word that spings to mind.
You sure do meet a better class of person on the daily, LOL
  • #2,330
  • Mar 2, 2010 1:56am Mar 2, 2010 1:56am
Hello mates,
i do follow this thread just to lean am a newbie never the less I've lent alot from this group.
am among those that dont contribute but am sorry cos i dont know what to say.
keep the good work on pls.
  • #2,331
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:08am Mar 2, 2010 2:08am
I find that contibuting to the thread you would take a lot more away from your learning experience. It allows your trading to become more structured especially as you begin posting results and offering suggestions as to why you took a certain position, this allows people to provide constructive feedback which you can learn from.

I'd say i've learnt more this last week from posting than i took from reading the thread from the start.
  • #2,332
  • Mar 2, 2010 10:13am Mar 2, 2010 10:13am
This is my first thread on this forum.

By applying this strategy today, I made the following:

GBP/USD - 15 pips
USD/CHF - 15 pips
EUR/USD - 15 pips

Total - 45 pips by following 3 major pairs that I feel comfortable with.

I calculated highs and lows of 9 bars starting from 7am- 9am( 9 am candle ending 9:15am). Therefore, I started looking for breakout from 9:15am.

Time zone is Eastern standard time(new york).

I used 3 pips buffer for my entry, meaning I will enter into trade if the price is at least 3 pips away from breakout price.

My R:R is 1:1, meaning 15 pips profit vs 15 pips stoploss.

May I ask senior members of the forum to suggest if I am on the right path.

45 pips in a day sounds good, am I missing something here??

Thanks and Regards
  • #2,333
  • Mar 2, 2010 11:16am Mar 2, 2010 11:16am
Well after my problems placing an order with FXCM yesterday, I did manage to get in on a short. Of course price immediately reversed on me, fortunately I had a high enough stop (probably too high for real money) and price came back to me overnight as I had hoped. I lucked out. Should have never entered the trade because it was not following any of the rules for this thread . . . except one, and even though it is not mentioned, everyone knows to trade with the trend. I'm just lucky I didn't get stopped. Good for 62 pips on .2 lots.

Hope you had a good day!
  • #2,334
  • Mar 2, 2010 11:31am Mar 2, 2010 11:31am
Quoting forex_fan
This is my first thread on this forum.

By applying this strategy today, I made the following:

GBP/USD - 15 pips
USD/CHF - 15 pips
EUR/USD - 15 pips

Total - 45 pips by following 3 major pairs that I feel comfortable with.

I calculated highs and lows of 9 bars starting from 7am- 9am( 9 am candle ending 9:15am). Therefore, I started looking for breakout from 9:15am.

Time zone is Eastern standard time(new york).

I used 3 pips buffer for my entry, meaning I will enter into trade if the price is at least 3 pips away from breakout price....
Sounds like you had a great day! Congratulations. It looks like you are doing everything correctly. Your stops might be a little tight, but if this continues over the next few weeks . . . well, let us know how that goes. I still place my stops as per the rules, you know . . . at opposite ends of the breakout box. These stops can be pretty large compared to profit. My experience so far with this system is that even though stops can be fairly large depending on your profit target, they have not been a problem.

I have not been triggered today on the eur/usd and the box is 79 pips. That can be a big loss if it goes against me. Generally the rule is don't place a trade if the box is more than 50 pips. This should keep you out of being whip-sawed. I personally have NOT followed that rule, and I can't positively say that it has hurt me either way.

So far a lot of discussion has been about when to exit. IF you find that 1:1 RR is working at 15 pips, why not continue with it. That makes the exit easy. Others are using a 20 pip target, but using the bottom or top of the box as a stop as per the rules.

My suggestion would be to NOT change anything that you have done and give it a try for the month of March. Keep us posted though, okay?
  • #2,335
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:33pm Mar 2, 2010 2:33pm
good work forex_fan well done on taking the profit today.

I had a bad day, I made 4 trades

AUD/USD -41.2 pips
USD/JPY +20.2 pips
USD/CHF -56.5 pips (missed my take profit by 1 pip)
GBP/USD +20 pips

Total for Day: -57.5 pips
Total for March: -25.5 pips

I think going forward I need to choose which pairs to trade and stick with them, also need to work out the best money management solution as to have 2 winning trades today against 2 losing trades and still be 57 pips down for the day is poor. Also the march total is below 2 successful trades.

i'll put my thinking cap on tonight and see what i can come up with which suits my trading style.
  • #2,336
  • Mar 2, 2010 3:14pm Mar 2, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting SirSpike
good work forex_fan well done on taking the profit today.

I had a bad day, I made 4 trades

AUD/USD -41.2 pips
USD/JPY +20.2 pips
USD/CHF -56.5 pips (missed my take profit by 1 pip)
GBP/USD +20 pips

Total for Day: -57.5 pips
Total for March: -25.5 pips

I think going forward I need to choose which pairs to trade and stick with them, also need to work out the best money management solution as to have 2 winning trades today against 2 losing trades and still be 57 pips down for the day is poor. Also the march total is below...
Wow SirSpike . . . missing by 1 pip is just not right. I am sorry to hear that! It sure would have been a different day if not for that. For those orders that got stopped, did they open on the other side? If they did, all might not be lost. Also, if it doesn't look like somewhat of a defined trend or if price is heading into what might appear as strong resistance, you might want to hold off. This is why I am only trading one pair, it is much easier to follow. Try not to get discouraged even though you had those loses, keep on plugging away because I think that you can bounce out of the hole almost as fast as you fell in.

I did place pending orders for the eur/usd pair today, late because I couldn't log on at home for some reason. Should I have placed pending orders at home I would have had a short triggered only to reverse and stop at a -79 pip loss. Price as I type is on the long side now up only +8 pips, down from a high of 23. Even though on my chart the box was 79 pips, I feel I would have captured some of that back on the other side.

For the euo/usd there is a lot of resistance at the 1.3460 (daily S1 on my chart) level so we'll see where that is going to go. It has been tested four times now. I personally think it still has further downside, provided it can punch through.

Hang in there and good luck tomorrow!
  • #2,337
  • Edited 3:30pm Mar 2, 2010 3:27pm | Edited 3:30pm
Ok, Here's my list from today that i made,before the box closes, just to decide which side of the box i'm gonna trade i don't trade both sides as yet)

Potential Shorts Potential long Not tradeable
Gbp/yen aus/usd eur/usd
gbp/usd eor/gbp usd/chf
usd/yen
usd/cad

These are basically with the 4hr trend. And guess what? i broke my own rules and took a eur/usd.

So todays trades:
Gbp/usd +20
eur/usd -68 ( missed tp by 2 pips)
aus/usd currently long and in drawdown ( -21 as i type)

Didn't take gbp/yen as cable triggered first.
Compltely missed usd/yen as i had 3 trades pending, the max i'll take.
Such is trading, another day tomorrow !
  • #2,338
  • Mar 2, 2010 3:34pm Mar 2, 2010 3:34pm
Not sure what happened but my list was this

Shorts gbp/yen, gbp/usd, usd/yen, usd/cad
Longs aus/usd, eur/gbp
Untradeable eur/usd, usd/chf

Hope that makes more sense.
  • #2,339
  • Edited 4:11pm Mar 2, 2010 4:00pm | Edited 4:11pm
I don't know if I should be upset that I couldn't place orders at home before work or not after seeing today's results.

Now when I try to log in to FXCM, it says my account is invalid (on two different computers at two different locations)! And I had pending orders. Maybe I'll just have to open another demo.

RU guys (pianosax, sirspike) trading demo too? I'd like to go live with this on a micro but with the recent trouble I have had placing orders I'm not sure anymore.

Take a look at the daily on the eur/usd, it has touched strong resistance four times now. Eventually, price will have to either retrace or breakthrough that level. The overall daily trend is still showing a possibly a short of some kind . . . but for how long. Price is very close to the weekly pivot and if you zoom out, you can see price is at resistance on weekly and monthly charts too, hmmmm.... Maybe we'll just consolidate for a while.

Good luck tomorrow!
  • #2,340
  • Mar 2, 2010 4:03pm Mar 2, 2010 4:03pm
I've replied to your PM, let me know if you get it, as my account is playing up, and still says i have no sent messages.

Cheers
1 trader viewing now