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AUD/USD

  • #18,061
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:36pm Mar 1, 2010 11:36pm
Quoting shahab8b
go here, play with charts

http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/correlation
i can't really tell anything from that. but what's yearly correlation? probably a lot higher. point is, eur/jpy fell first, then gbp/jpy came after, who's next? jpy is taking names.
  • #18,062
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:37pm Mar 1, 2010 11:37pm
Quoting Clouds
Show me weekly correlation in past 100 weeks.
92.2% - 86.5% for past 100 weeks
19.7% 20.4% for past 50 weeks

but that shows the time all of them were carry trade
  • #18,063
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:39pm Mar 1, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
92.2% - 86.5% for past 100 weeks
19.7% 20.4% for past 50 weeks

but that shows the time all of them were carry trade
but they did all fall when they were carry trade, and all rise when they were carry trade? AUD and NZD isn't special. CAD is in cross hairs as well.
  • #18,064
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:42pm Mar 1, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting Clouds
but they did all fall when they were carry trade, and all rise when they were carry trade? AUD and NZD isn't special. CAD is in cross hairs as well.
AUD will remain strong as far as Stock market are doing fine-
let DJI and S&P fall first then we will short this one till .6000
  • #18,065
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:47pm Mar 1, 2010 11:47pm
Quoting shahab8b
AUD will remain strong as far as Stock market are doing fine-
let DJI and S&P fall first then we will short this one till .6000
it doesn't look like it's doing fine though.

High .94 Low .875
High .93 Low .86
High .9050 Low ???

Eventually people are gonna get out of longs cause it keeps going down, if you made $300/month from swap from 1 lot, you'd have make sure it didn't lose 1 cent for every 3 months. When people start realizing losses, it'll drop , no?
  • #18,066
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:48pm Mar 1, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting Clouds
but they did all fall when they were carry trade, and all rise when they were carry trade? AUD and NZD isn't special. CAD is in cross hairs as well.
clouds, have you look at U/cad weekly,
it seems it's developing some continuation pattern to the downside
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  • #18,067
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:50pm Mar 1, 2010 11:50pm
Quoting shahab8b
clouds, have you look at U/cad weekly,
it seems it's developing some continuation pattern to the downside
what bear trend does usd/cad have anymore? Didn't it escape?

Attached Image
  • #18,068
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:53pm Mar 1, 2010 11:53pm
The market is very clever, on the news it sucked in both shorts and longs and now holds them in the middle at its mercy.
On my 8hr it bounced off the 360ema as resistance and is sitting on the 180ema as support.
It is still holding its upwards trendline on the hourly with no candle closing beneath.
Direction unknown??
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  • #18,069
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:59pm Mar 1, 2010 11:59pm
Honestly I think london MAY spike it down some just to shake off some longs. I wont be holding very long if I see some of this happening like last time .
There will be plenty of time to get into the uptrend
Annoying Precision
  • #18,070
  • Mar 2, 2010 12:01am Mar 2, 2010 12:01am
Quoting Clouds
but they did all fall when they were carry trade, and all rise when they were carry trade? AUD and NZD isn't special. CAD is in cross hairs as well.
Just short GBP to parity. Seems everyone else is.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #18,071
  • Mar 2, 2010 12:28am Mar 2, 2010 12:28am
It is good time to go long from now. Just pick a good price around 0.8970
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #18,072
  • Mar 2, 2010 12:30am Mar 2, 2010 12:30am
Heres my trade set up:

http://i194.photobucket.com/albums/z...ussieShort.jpg


Risk = 30pips
Reward = 90pips
  • #18,073
  • Mar 2, 2010 12:37am Mar 2, 2010 12:37am
Completely random, but check out CHF's proposed new banknotes. Makes all of our money look like crap.
http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/cash/new...h_new_result/2
  • #18,074
  • Mar 2, 2010 12:52am Mar 2, 2010 12:52am
Quoting Clouds
Eventually people are gonna get out of longs cause it keeps going down, if you made $300/month from swap from 1 lot, you'd have make sure it didn't lose 1 cent for every 3 months. When people start realizing losses, it'll drop , no?
It could take a while.. what about all those holding longs from 65c, 70c, etc.? Eventually there will be a market shock to catalyse the falls. For example last time: RBA dropped rates 1% and AUD cratered.
  • #18,075
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:26am Mar 2, 2010 2:26am
Nice easy 20pip climb there, maybe change to 20pip sell at Resistance 1.
  • #18,076
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:28am Mar 2, 2010 2:28am
When I am going long, you guys are going short. When I am shorting like now you guys are longing. It feels so wrong but lets see whos gonna be wrong. I haven't done much analysing right now but shorted anyway.
  • #18,077
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:29am Mar 2, 2010 2:29am
Almost time to buy the USD.

Seems CAD is the best value to sell right now around 1.0375-1.04
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  • #18,078
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:33am Mar 2, 2010 2:33am
Quoting Squarepants
It could take a while.. what about all those holding longs from 65c, 70c, etc.? Eventually there will be a market shock to catalyse the falls. For example last time: RBA dropped rates 1% and AUD cratered.
To make new highs or lows new money must enter the market or old positions must be cashed in to free up capital for new ones.

If everyone is long, there are no buyers left and we are definitely going down.

As long as China keeps showing up on the bid then not "everybody" is long yet.

Until China stops buying export commodities from us, they will not stop showing up on the bid, no matter how low it goes.

Ironically, this "putting a floor under" type effect is the one thing an export economy really cant afford.
  • #18,079
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:41am Mar 2, 2010 2:41am
Quoting jarnapal
When I am going long, you guys are going short. When I am shorting like now you guys are longing. It feels so wrong but lets see whos gonna be wrong. I haven't done much analysing right now but shorted anyway.
Go Down!!
  • #18,080
  • Mar 2, 2010 2:42am Mar 2, 2010 2:42am
LLLOOONNNGGGG
Annoying Precision
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