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AUD/USD

  • #18,021
  • Mar 1, 2010 9:52pm Mar 1, 2010 9:52pm
FAt long?

what about some fit and petite shorts but lots of them?

Why would you buy ...the rate hike just jappend and the market didnt spike the AUD and I dont see it appreciating more...actually i think after the market already discounted the posible appreciation and we still technically have a downtrend...then I would hold my shorts.
  • #18,022
  • Mar 1, 2010 9:53pm Mar 1, 2010 9:53pm
Quoting Saxon
So are you saying that IRs are only a cause of monetary policy? Are you saying that they are correlated; well that's a no brainer. This is from the Fed of SF publishing:

"...The Fed uses three monetary policy tools to influence the availability and cost of money and credit: open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements..."

"... The discount rate is the interest rate a Reserve Bank charges eligible financial institutions to borrow funds on a short-term basis. Unlike open market operations, which interact with...
Err right. That is exactly what I said and the exact opposite of what you said. Rate is indirect, not direct monetary policy tool. It only indicates policy, money supply is never ever ever controlled directly by the discount rate or any other short term bond provided by CBs.

Here is a weekly chart of the AUDUSD showing when the RBA has been buying AUD and selling bonds (contractionary monetary policy), and also when the RBA has been selling AUD and buying bonds (expansionary monetary policy).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 2.png Size: 26 KB


I have also included 2 other charts, historical interest rates in Australia and both houshold + govt debt as a % of GDP. By Saxons definitions, government and household debt should increase as rates go down, and government and household debt should decrease as rates go up.
http://www.loansense.com.au/historical-rates.jpg
http://media.crikey.com.au/Media/ima...3fa89bcb63.gif

Clearly not the case.
  • #18,023
  • Mar 1, 2010 9:53pm Mar 1, 2010 9:53pm
australian treasurer swan states that rates can't be at emergency levels forever although a hike hurts family budgets....

i hope you feel good about yourself swan...
  • #18,024
  • Mar 1, 2010 9:53pm Mar 1, 2010 9:53pm
Not the reaction I was looking for but I will hold my longs there is still a 95% chance we will touch 9077 this week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.GIF Size: 16 KB
  • #18,025
  • Mar 1, 2010 9:54pm Mar 1, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Clouds, do you live in Australia?
no
  • #18,026
  • Mar 1, 2010 9:54pm Mar 1, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting Clouds
nzd/usd, only if it stalls
sold
  • #18,027
  • Mar 1, 2010 9:55pm Mar 1, 2010 9:55pm
Well guys, that’s what you call stop hunting…they didn’t get mine.
Took 52 pips at the top.
Peter-FX
  • #18,028
  • Mar 1, 2010 9:56pm Mar 1, 2010 9:56pm
Why did that happen though? I thought it was because of a world recession and the dollar was coined the "safe haven" currency. I'm under the impression that we are eeking our way out of this recession and investors are starting to look for yield.

All joke aside, i really dont know ANYTHING about economics other then the very BASICS ( I think i know the basics?). Im just trading what I see on my chart, if it takes a nosedive, Im out.

I'll stop being a smartass, my bad man.

Quoting Clouds
What's funny, is u can look back at your charts and see what happen in 2008, yet u refuse accept that will happen again. I think you're on Cloud 9, if you are looking for another higher than the 90's....
Annoying Precision
  • #18,029
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:00pm Mar 1, 2010 10:00pm
Quoting erikte279
Why did that happen though? I thought it was because of a world recession and the dollar was coined the "safe haven" currency. I'm under the impression that we are eeking are way out of this recession and investors are starting to look for yield.

All joke aside, i really dont know ANYTHING about economics other then the very BASICS ( I think i know the basics?). Im just trading what I see on my chart, if it takes a nosedive, Im out.

I'll stop being a smartass, my bad man.
deflation caused the recession. inflation caused the expansion. we're not done with deflation. the first recession was minor.

If you get rid of inflation / deflation, we've been in a recession for a LONG-TIME!
  • #18,030
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:01pm Mar 1, 2010 10:01pm
I probably know less than you erikte, but who cares trade your strategy! All that matters is that bank account !
"Pippin aint easy"
  • #18,031
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:06pm Mar 1, 2010 10:06pm
thats a 10-4!

Quoting Buitragojl
I probably know less than you erikte, but who cares trade your strategy! All that matters is that bank account !
Annoying Precision
  • #18,032
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:06pm Mar 1, 2010 10:06pm
So your saying that my point is invalid?

Quoting Clouds
deflation caused the recession. inflation caused the expansion. we're not done with deflation. the first recession was minor.

If you get rid of inflation / deflation, we've been in a recession for a LONG-TIME!
Annoying Precision
  • #18,033
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:11pm Mar 1, 2010 10:11pm
Quoting erikte279
So your saying that my point is invalid?
well, look at history. and look at the prices.
would u buy usd/cad at 1.50 ? or sell usd/cad at 1.05?
would u sell aud/usd at .50 or buy aud/usd at .95?

usd is in a bull run, and it's going hurt a lot of markets, but nothing u can do about that. it's just a cycle.

the alternative? usd/cad at .40 , and aud/usd at 2.0?
  • #18,034
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:21pm Mar 1, 2010 10:21pm
Your looking at it from the viewpoint that the market cannot/ should not go higher because of previous valuations. My viewpoints may be wrong (not sure if it has a basis) but I think we should trade whats going on now rather then looking at the past and trying to make assumptions. Right now the dollars interest rate is .25 percent and the aud is 4 percent.

As i stated before though, I trade whats on my chart and I am by no means an economist.

Quoting Clouds
well, look at history. and look at the prices.
would u buy usd/cad at 1.50 ? or sell usd/cad at 1.05?
would u sell aud/usd at .50 or buy aud/usd at .95?

usd is in a bull run, and it's going hurt a lot of markets, but nothing u can do about that. it's just a cycle.

the alternative? usd/cad at .40 , and aud/usd at 2.0?
Annoying Precision
  • #18,035
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:22pm Mar 1, 2010 10:22pm
Hello,
I am new here, I sold AU, but dont know where a good target should be. Can spmeone help me. I had in mind .8880 as psychological, but advice can help greatly, Thanks.
  • #18,036
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:25pm Mar 1, 2010 10:25pm
Quoting erikte279
Your looking at it from the viewpoint that the market cannot/ should not go higher because of previous valuations. My viewpoints may be wrong (not sure if it has a basis) but I think we should trade whats going on now rather then looking at the past and trying to make assumptions. Right now the dollars interest rate is .25 percent and the aud is 4 percent.

As i stated before though, I trade whats on my chart and I am by no means an economist.
interest rates aside, its pretty clear the world economy can't handle these forex rates, as 2008 told. trade your charts though.
  • #18,037
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:26pm Mar 1, 2010 10:26pm
Quoting sinner-
Err right. That is exactly what I said and the exact opposite of what you said. Rate is indirect, not direct monetary policy tool. It only indicates policy, money supply is never ever ever controlled directly by the discount rate or any other short term bond provided by CBs.

Here is a weekly chart of the AUDUSD showing when the RBA has been buying AUD and selling bonds (contractionary monetary policy), and also when the RBA has been selling AUD and buying bonds (expansionary monetary policy).
Attachment

I have also included...
Thanks for proving my point. In 1980, on your chart, H debt is aboout 10 on your bottom chart and IR is about a 9 on your top chart. In 2009, debt is at about 100 and rates are at about an 8. So, do the math, rates dropped -1 and debt went from 10 to 100. I don't know where you got your charts though. Maybe you should look at them before you use them as ammunition. You should probably stop now, I've moved on.
  • #18,038
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:30pm Mar 1, 2010 10:30pm
Woooooooooooow!still?
"Pippin aint easy"
  • #18,039
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:33pm Mar 1, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting erikte279
Your looking at it from the viewpoint that the market cannot/ should not go higher because of previous valuations. My viewpoints may be wrong (not sure if it has a basis) but I think we should trade whats going on now rather then looking at the past and trying to make assumptions. Right now the dollars interest rate is .25 percent and the aud is 4 percent.

As i stated before though, I trade whats on my chart and I am by no means an economist.

On the fundamental side, macro ecconomic fears are still well and truely around (Greece, Britain's budget deficeit, PIIGS, China monetry tightening etc.).

That's not to say that the Australian economy is not growing, but global factors may hold back growth (or possibly pull it down). Hence why there may be some hesitation as to putting money into high yielding currencies (or risk taking).
  • #18,040
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:36pm Mar 1, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting Saxon
Thanks for proving my point. In 1980, on your chart, H debt is aboout 10 on your bottom chart and IR is about a 9 on your top chart. In 2009, debt is at about 100 and rates are at about an 8. So, do the math, rates dropped -1 and debt went from 10 to 100. I don't know where you got your charts though. Maybe you should look at them before you use them as ammunition. You should probably stop now, I've moved on.
Are you serious?
Why not have a look at the high IR of the early 90s and dispite this the debt is still increasing.
Conclusion: there is no correlation between IR and Debt
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