AUD/USD

http://www.trading-naked.com/Expandi...glePattern.htm

http://www.eyield.co.uk/myarea/intro...g_triangle.htm

my alarm went off to short DOW. Just went heavily short on DOW and Gold. Been short on EU/US from 1.3650, wont touch AU yet because of rate hike. My charts point to 1.33 for EU and under 10k for DOW.

Your SL with that would be interesting ....
before you are off to go skiing

Short as well here now @ 9005 (when we bounced for the third time from that area up here) SL @ 9020 at the moment.
If I am again I will close it for some green pips lol

Bravery at its best- Taking position before RBA rate decision.

I believe better opportunity is shorting pound on rallies.

9020 SL
8950 TP (maybe?)

well.. I'd say no risk no fun..
but risk is also pretty limited for me.. small position with SL of 15 pips
whereas the "fun" can be much bigger to the downside (with no rate hike)
but sure you never know

a/u having trouble getting above .90..

If there is no rate hike we should see much more down.. don't you think?

if we stay at this 90 area now these damn spikes during news release could also hit 9020 easily before we (might) go down.

Had that before and it really sucks
So I might be a chicken and close before the news
(I like pips.. but only the green ones )

it might hit 9080 and you're SL won't work. is why i am probably go for TP 8950.

True..
so lets watch if we see some moving now.. or if aud has fallen asleep waiting till news release...

Buy the rumor, Sell the crap!...

I bought at 0.8950 have a TP at 0.9025 so just need a little more to go

Bought A/U at 8972 and closed at 9014.

View: Hype of RBA interest rate hike will die out as cable and euro will be more in focus in the coming weeks. I expect A/U to go back below 9000 levels.

Regards

Hi Sinner

That was a typo on my part i meant to put 80.045 so still waiting. EU completed a high probability move from Friday highs to Monday lows last night that I had been foolishly hoping wouldn't happen. I think now it can move to 1.37 and dx move down to 80.045. How does this compare to your analysis?

Morning guys.
Just be aware that this week is a very high risk news week for a number of currencies, trade with caution.
Click on Calendar at the top of this page and see how many red impact icons there are.
Lots of pips http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Peter-FX

line

Boris Schlossberg,Director of Currency Research, GFT

Will Weaker Chinese Data Force RBA To Keep Rates Steady?

Weaker than expected Chinese PMI Data reversed a small short covering rally in risk FX as European markets opened for trade at the start of the week. Chinese CFLP Manufacturing PMI slowed to 52.0 from 55.8 the month prior which the HSBC gauge dipped to 55.8 from 57.4 in January. Both measures remained firmly in expansionary territory but declined for the second consecutive month after hitting their peak in December of 2009.
Several analysts cautioned that the seasonal factors due to the Chinese New Year may have exacerbated the decline, but the fact remains that Chinese manufacturing production has slowed materially since the start of the year casting doubt on the strength of the global economic recovery story. The news caused a U turn in all the risk currencies with pound falling from a session high of 1.5200 to 1.5100, euro retreating below the 1.3600 handle once again and Aussie losing the .9000 figure in late session Asian trade.
The disappointing Chinese data may have its greatest impact on the Aussie as traders warily eye tonight’s RBA cash rate decision. The markets anticipate a hike of 25bp to 4.00% given the torrid pace of growth in Australian labor markets. However, recently the RBA has been extraordinarily cautious in its monetary policy stance guided more by the lackluster global macro economic conditions rather than the impressive performance of the Australian economy.
With Australian economy so highly dependent on Chinese demand, the policymakers in Canberra could once again surprise the markets and hold off on any additional rate hikes until they see stronger evidence of increase in global demand. Even if the RBA raises the cash rate to 4.00% it may temper market expectations by hinting at a moratorium on any further rate hike for the foreseeable future. We continue to believe that Aussie represents the strongest bet on the risk trade and will respond best to any upside surprises in economic data, but with the recovery thesis beginning to look more and more questionable as Chinese growth slows and US labor markets deteriorating once again, the danger of further declines in the Aussie has increased substantially.



http://www.fx360.com/commentary/bori...=1267485088235

What do you think would have the best risk reward ratio if we get positive comments from RBA rate decision auy/usd or nzd/usd?

Two problems with the article: 1. RBA is in Sydney, not Canberra. 2. The RBA might actually raise rates on this kind of news, giving them more ammo to fight the fires next quarter (they hinted as much before).

It's still a close call though. Our CPI last month was pretty darn low..

glad we got some early news in a few minutes, maybe it'll give us some ideas before the rate decision