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AUD/USD

  • #17,881
  • Mar 1, 2010 6:56am Mar 1, 2010 6:56am
Quoting amyc
I think that the dollar index is going to make one push down early this week into 80.45, shown in daily chart on the right, and then for the rest of March it will make a move upwards into 86.

The left chart is weekly and shows that the dollar has spent February consolidating above the blue line which is Q1 pp, to me that is bullish. The chart on the right is daily and shows price being capped by the weekly highs on friday the 19th. When this happens price will normally move back into the blue midpoints before the next up move takes place.
Good call. Not sure if my 80.45 is the same as your 80.45 but I marked it on this H1 with period seperators.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #17,882
  • Mar 1, 2010 8:43am Mar 1, 2010 8:43am
and aud just collapses
  • #17,883
  • Mar 1, 2010 8:45am Mar 1, 2010 8:45am
Quoting kourtney
im getting tired of my short on AUD/USD..... but it seems like my 30m moving averages will cross in anytime now so downtrend will give me at least break even .

Guys you should watch GBPJPY it hit a super low just now 131.99 a fe mins ago...I think we havent seen better time to buy this low.

i took a position at 132.07 but didnt fill me up til like 4 minutes later when the price was already higher...sux!!! anyway i think is good time to trade this low pair besides the candlesticks show some bulling englufing patern
i'm surprised you're not tired of your long GBPJPY, that suckers going to 20, but as soon as i say that itll bounce like u want it too, just protect yourself. AUDUSD will go down, not to worry
  • #17,884
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:29am Mar 1, 2010 10:29am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Clouds
and aud just collapses
Hey Clouds,
Hope you had a nice weekend!

Today that AUD looks like a rollercoaster to me.
Coming back from work now I see my shorts stopped at BE.

90-area looked like a hard resistance to the upside for now.
and we are back there again now. might risk a lil short at that area now.
Just not sure what the upcoming rate-decision will bring us
(or what is already priced-in at the moment)

We will see...
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #17,885
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:31am Mar 1, 2010 10:31am
Quoting Tuner
Hey Clouds,
Hope you had a nice weekend!

Today that AUD looks like a rollercoaster to me.
Coming back from work now I see my shorts stopped at BE.

90-area looked like a hard resistance to the upside for now.
and we are back there again now. might risk a lil short at that area now.
Just not sure what the upcoming rate-decision will bring us
(or what is already priced-in at the moment)

We will see...
did aud get pegged to the dollar? lol, seems so
  • #17,886
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:41am Mar 1, 2010 10:41am
Quoting kourtney
im getting tired of my short on AUD/USD..... but it seems like my 30m moving averages will cross in anytime now so downtrend will give me at least break even .

Guys you should watch GBPJPY it hit a super low just now 131.99 a fe mins ago...I think we havent seen better time to buy this low.

i took a position at 132.07 but didnt fill me up til like 4 minutes later when the price was already higher...sux!!! anyway i think is good time to trade this low pair besides the candlesticks show some bulling englufing patern
do you still have your G/J short from last week?
  • #17,887
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:44am Mar 1, 2010 10:44am
I'm holding my Long A/U from Fri and I added to them today at Weekly PP bounce, this pair will be in 91.5 soon
  • #17,888
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:50am Mar 1, 2010 10:50am
Quoting shahab8b
I'm holding my Long A/U from Fri and I added to them today at Weekly PP bounce, this pair will be in 91.5 soon
That high? Are you expecting a rate increase? If so, you don't already think it's baked into the price?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #17,889
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:54am Mar 1, 2010 10:54am
Quoting shahab8b
I'm holding my Long A/U from Fri and I added to them today at Weekly PP bounce, this pair will be in 91.5 soon
or .815
  • #17,890
  • Mar 1, 2010 10:59am Mar 1, 2010 10:59am
Quoting MarcVUM
That high? Are you expecting a rate increase? If so, you don't already think it's baked into the price?
what I use is correlation , U/cad tends to move before A/U most of the time, now it's moving down- A/U may follow couple of hrs later
+ the anticipated rate hike will give this pair some momentum
+ the pattern in Hr is an expanding triangle which is usually a continuation one
  • #17,891
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:00am Mar 1, 2010 11:00am
Quoting Clouds
or .815
G'day clouds
you know that I'm a big fan of shorting Aussie- but I'm waiting to short it a bit higher than here =.9150
  • #17,892
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:02am Mar 1, 2010 11:02am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Clouds
did aud get pegged to the dollar? lol, seems so
lol..maybe but we will soon find out
But I think no bigger moves until rate-decision

Release of cash-rate decision will be at 4:30 AM my time... so I might be asleep then

--> FF-calender shows expected rate-hike as forecast (Just as in Feb)
Forecast Previous
4.00% 3.75%

--> other sources show "market expectations" the other way
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0100227107677/

Lookin back to the charts for Feb. there was a nice drop after the rate-decision...followed by a bounce up from the new low...

Don't what to expect now...
Maybe just ignore the news and look what the charts says tomorrow

-Tuner -
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #17,893
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:02am Mar 1, 2010 11:02am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day clouds
you know that I'm a big fan of shorting Aussie- but I'm waiting to short it a bit higher than here =.9150
watch usd/cad at 1.0410 /1.0400/1.0370
  • #17,894
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:06am Mar 1, 2010 11:06am
Quoting Clouds
watch usd/cad at 1.0410 /1.0400/1.0370
I'm watching, I short it after the Ca -GDP release today , the target is 1.32-31
  • #17,895
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:14am Mar 1, 2010 11:14am
Quoting shahab8b
I'm watching, I short it after the Ca -GDP release today , the target is 1.32-31
do u mean 1.032??

Attached Image
  • #17,896
  • Mar 1, 2010 11:34am Mar 1, 2010 11:34am
Quoting Clouds
do u mean 1.032??

Attachment
sorry, it was a typo
there is a strong s at 1.037 on the way down
  • #17,897
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:08pm Mar 1, 2010 12:08pm
entered long on eur/aud, was a entry order i had placed from before the move up on 23rd, and didnt think it would get filled today. have moved stop to be +2 as aud/usd has been working its way up slowly. left tp open for now, will look to add to position if no rate hike, if i dont get stopped out first of course
  • #17,898
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:10pm Mar 1, 2010 12:10pm
long from 1.5001 on eur/aud. sorry
  • #17,899
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:13pm Mar 1, 2010 12:13pm
If there is a rate hike, then i think aud/usd to 0.93 and euro/aud will deline further.
  • #17,900
  • Mar 1, 2010 12:19pm Mar 1, 2010 12:19pm
hmm, well im short aud/usd and long usd/cad for the week , think ill go skiing
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