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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #56,601
  • Edited 9:15pm Feb 28, 2010 8:56pm | Edited 9:15pm
Quoting bidie
I am long as I see accumulation going on - looking for a move to 152.30 area-----
Before coming to that conclusion, there are a couple of questions I would want to look at...

Accumulation of Euros? or distribution of AUD? Quite different things. Remember that we are trading two instruments at a time, so the classic acc/disct Weinstein-ish model doesnt work the same way.

Which martket participants do you think would be buying a weak currency and/or selling a strong one?

What news items are coming up this week (tomorrow, specifically) that has a strong effect on this pair might keep traders on the sidelines in the leadup, leading to low volume (as opposed to acc/dist)?

Any 25bn market news on Friday that might keep trading in the Euro light?




*edit* note that I'm not saying you are wrong - but when someone says they are 'usually wrong', it generally means they have the right idea but are perhaps overlooking some things.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #56,602
  • Feb 28, 2010 9:16pm Feb 28, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting bidie
I am long as I see accumulation going on - looking for a move to 152.30 area-----
However I am wrong most of the time so we shall see...
it's Monday, so please let me say this:

Hello bidie,
i checked your post history.. [u make very short posts.]

please dont be unsensible, this is not an 'Interactive trading' thread.
i know u can make a clearer, lengthier, & more intelligent post than this.
  • #56,603
  • Feb 28, 2010 10:51pm Feb 28, 2010 10:51pm
Quoting Jcp
Just wondering what everyone's thoughts are on posting public journals of your trades. Does it help or hinder? Part of me thinks it may hinder by causing unneeded emotion and pressure to perform. On the other hand it could hold you accountable for your actions and possibly force discipline. I guess it depend on the intentions.

Thanks everyone for your thoughts on this subject. I did have a public trading journal about a year ago on another site before I came across this one. I found it to be an enormous amount of unneeded pressure. Probably because deep down I wanted to be a hero. I was honest and posted all winning and loosing trades but it just wasn't as productive as keeping a private journal. Now I do keep an organized journal with charts and trade details. But it's great to be able to come to a thread like this and share with professional and experienced traders who tell it like it is, no sugar coating.
  • #56,604
  • Feb 28, 2010 11:16pm Feb 28, 2010 11:16pm
Quoting jarroo
Venturing down to the 4 hour time frame(for me), one has to know where the higher time frame PPZ levels are located.

As sChaos was noted and you have agreed with, that the PB was very small inrelation to the move down. Countering that big trend down with such a small formation will cause more harm then good unless a very tight trade management is applied, which you were aware of.

Big PA at big, strong levels is where the great trades live and breed. Location is the most important part of a high quality PA setup. But if I were to take a...
Jim,
Thanks for your feedback. I've attached the hourly chart I based my trade on. I had the 3485 as being a very strong level of support, but was also aware of the caution needed due to the fact that the overall trend is down. I'll work on posting better detail on my next trade. I have also spent some time this weekend refining my trading plan and business strategy, and am looking forward to sharing more with you all as I progress.
  • #56,605
  • Feb 28, 2010 11:20pm Feb 28, 2010 11:20pm
Quoting scott89
So guys, what do you think about the audnzd daily pinbar?
Perch told his thoughts, what about the others?
I know i'm pressing you a lot with this, but i started today to demo trade pin bars, so i want to know how to find a++ setups

waiting for answers
many thanks
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Scott

We want to look for pins at the appropriate swing levels, especially when starting out. This is a pinbar at a swing high where we would want this at a swing low. Mine also barely closed as a pin. I have marked where price is likely to go, but all in all not a prime location in my book

Hope that helps
Mike
Hey scott.

Mike's take on this setup is 1st rate as always. The one thing that you can get from a Mike strict PA setups (swing High/Low, confluenced with PPZ levels, BRN, etc) is that the Mike setup will yield many more pips. We're talking a few hundred to a thousand pip runner. It is the very basic underlining structure that makes Price Action so powerful.

These consolidated setups or highly trafficed (trafficed, is that a word) setups, like the Daily Aud/Nzd PB, tend to be less yielding in the amount of pips they produce. Don't get me wrong, they can be very rewarding and predictable in where Price is going.


My take on it . . . let's look at the BEOB prior to the PB. Nice BEOB at a swing High, it managed to break through the strong Resistance level (in green) of the 128.00. Hit its clear target in blue cleanly and now it formed a PB which the 128.00 could now act as Support.

Just curious Mike if you would view this as a breakout - pullback with PA setup? I think I know your answer.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #56,606
  • Feb 28, 2010 11:22pm Feb 28, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting Jcp
Jim,
Thanks for your feedback. I've attached the hourly chart I based my trade on. I had the 3485 as being a very strong level of support, but was also aware of the caution needed due to the fact that the overall trend is down. I'll work on posting better detail on my next trade. I have also spent some time this weekend refining my trading plan and business strategy, and am looking forward to sharing more with you all as I progress.
Here's the attachement
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #56,607
  • Feb 28, 2010 11:23pm Feb 28, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting Jcp
Jim,
Thanks for your feedback. I've attached the hourly chart I based my trade on. I had the 3485 as being a very strong level of support, but was also aware of the caution needed due to the fact that the overall trend is down. I'll work on posting better detail on my next trade. I have also spent some time this weekend refining my trading plan and business strategy, and am looking forward to sharing more with you all as I progress.

Cool Jcp.

I just wanted to note the other supporting factors that gave a little more wieght to your trade.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #56,608
  • Feb 28, 2010 11:28pm Feb 28, 2010 11:28pm
Quoting jarroo
Hey scott.

Mike's take on this setup...
Hey Jim^2

You are right it is all about location. I always add the caveat these days that ultimatly the bars are triggers and location is everything. So I just try to stress(since I think more beginners in the public thread) the traditional spots. What I do want everyone to know is that I take trades at all areas. Continuations, pullbacks, open space etc. So I thought I would just note that. But I can usually tell when someone is just looking at the bar as opposed to you understanding the location. So I think the ability to play the different scenario pins is like building blocks. These are towards the upper end of your tower. At least that is my experience and thus how I teach.

OK as for your real question(the above was more just for those just finding this stuff). I do not consider this a breakout and pullback of a breakout formation. Could it be considered a breakout and pullback to a PPZ sure. But I personally use that breakout and pullback lingo for breakout patterns(horizontal, wedges, flags etc - which funny enough I just did a 20 min video on from a similar question). To me the distinction is great and thus I like to make the distinction in my own methods. Where as Generally speaking I just call a continuation pin at a PPZ what it is(a play away from a zone). I know none of this really matters, but it is for my actual trading important for me , b/c the dynamics cahnge for trade mgmt greatly. For example a pure continuation pin usually means close trouble areas to that prior high, where as a breakout + pullback of a breakout pattern usually means price has consolidated heavy and if I picekd the right expansion it should get some legs(although it may look just like a continuation pin).

Summary - PA is powerful. The knowledge of PA +SR can be formed in NUMEROUS ways. If you are new to this, start with a few basic concepts and build from there. But always keep it simple.

Man I hope that wasn't confusing as heck

Mike
  • #56,609
  • Feb 28, 2010 11:45pm Feb 28, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Jim^2

You are right it is all about location. I always add the caveat these days that ultimatly the bars are triggers and location is everything. So I just try to stress(since I think more beginners in the public thread) the traditional spots. What I do want everyone to know is that I take trades at all areas. Continuations, pullbacks, open space etc. So I thought I would just note that. But I can usually tell when someone is just looking at the bar as opposed to you understanding the location. So I think the ability to play the different...

Thanks Mike. I guess I did get away from the basic building blocks and no it wasn't confusing only because I've veiwed your videos many times. lol

But the important point of the basics you teach is that they do generally produce more longer term movements. Meaning that keeping it simple and to the basics is a great place to be and stay. Its not that one has to go any farther then that, the basics.


Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #56,610
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:13am Mar 1, 2010 1:13am
Hi all

I have downloaded the video but it has not sound!

The volume settings are on as I listened to a random song.

Any ideas?

Thanks

Ant
  • #56,611
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:15am Mar 1, 2010 1:15am
I've been demo trading the above for the last few weeks and looking back over the sunday open over the last few months and 'most' of the time the gap closes very quickly and the gap is small.

Last nights open saw a significant gap in the GBP pairs (e.g. 60pips in GBP/USD) which has not yet closed and price has actually moved further away from the gap. My question is how to people play the gap in terms of money management especially int he abscence of any obvious PPZ areas)

Mike - I know in the past you've said that you scale into the trade, but how do you decide where to scale in and how much to risk (i.e. where is your stop in that where do you consider that the gap wont be closed anytime soon).

Thanks
  • #56,612
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:24am Mar 1, 2010 1:24am
Quoting antgal23
Hi all

I have downloaded the video but it has not sound!

The volume settings are on as I listened to a random song.

Any ideas?

Thanks

Ant
Are you on vista? Can you see video? Are you using windows media player(is it full updated) do you have divx installed? If all else fails someone mentioned an AC3 filter.

I just have a fully updated fresh installed windows XP and windows media player and no problems here

Mike
  • #56,613
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:25am Mar 1, 2010 1:25am
Quoting antgal23
Hi all

I have downloaded the video but it has not sound!

The volume settings are on as I listened to a random song.

Any ideas?

Thanks

Ant

Sorry, I meant to say, is this the new vid you were talking about earlier mbq?
Hi guys

Thanks
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #56,614
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:28am Mar 1, 2010 1:28am
Quoting lovejoy80

Mike - I know in the past you've said that you scale into the trade, but how do you decide where to scale in and how much to risk (i.e. where is your stop in that where do you consider that the gap wont be closed anytime soon).

Thanks
Gaps are very discretionary( I once ran nearly 60 min webinar just talking over them cause it is really open) and I only trade large clear ones and often ones that only show up on Oanda as well(usually it is a few pips there)

here are some posts I made about it



QUOTE=mbqb11;8121]This is a continuation of a question from another thread.


Gap trading can be extremely profitable. It has treated me and many others on this site very well. One trader(rockrat - check out his journal for another way to play them) ONLY(as far as I remember) trades gaps. Like everything else in the trading world, everyone is going to have their own take on it.

But I will give you the run down on how I trade gaps. It really is the most discretionary part of my trading.

Firstly I only trade large gaps. large enough that you can see the gap on the 4hr chart. A lot of times you get these 20 pt gaps around and they usually fill too, but I have a problem with trading them. Liquidity is usually very thin during the opening on sunday which means wide spreads, and slippage. So they aren't worth it to me.

Next what I do is see how large the gap is about. For example the gbp/jpy is around 150 pips. I use this as my starting point. I then take that ~ stop size and get a position size. Usually 2%. I then cut that into quarters and put my first position on right when I am at my computer/broker opens.

So the key to me for gap trading conservatively is to scale into your position. Instead of sticking the whole 2% on right at the open, scale in and feel it out. This way when it tumbles you don't panic. You can simply wait it out. And use fibs/ppzs/PA to begin to try to time entries with each piece of your risk. If it ever comes to the point where I have around 3% almost about to be hit in the negative, I tend to throw on one last position and max out around 4-5%. With that said only once have I ever taking a full loss, and it was I just couldn't take the pain of the trade anymore during a summer gap I believe. Shortly after it filled.

So yes a lot of times you put your first .25% on and it closes and you make very little. But I would always rather be safe then sorry. There are a few other things I do here and there, but really I think that is all I need to explain as far as how I do it. No exact science, and I tend to never wait for a complete fill. Sometimes I build up such a nice position I don't even wait for a fill cause I might end up +4-6% because I scaled in so well.

So overall, wait for larger gaps. Enter your first position. Then scale in y our other positions slowly and spaced out. This way even 300-400 pips on a pair doesn't bother you. Of course the other way is to just try to put all your position at once and draw a line in the sand(s/r or ppz for a stop like anything else). I just think you are going to have much larger drawdowns that way.


Mike[/quote]




QUOTE=mbqb11;44120]Hey Scott

Most of my gaps have a % equity stop. So I will go 3-5% (higher on the bigger gaps that I believe in). Most gaps now that I trade, I scale in even smaller then ever, this keeps fluctuation in equity down. The signals to add can be anything from blind touches, to PA, to a hunch. So as you can see the most discretionary form.

For example I opened a gap position nzd/usd. Added on a 15min . That added position I closed on the invalidation of the 15 min pin(small position about 1/4%. Then I recently added in again based on an hourly pin. Now I am only 23 pips out of the money which is still far off from the actual gap close. Many times I close in profit well before a gap close b/c of my slow scaling in.

Definitely the most discretionary part of my trading. Another cause for concern would be no gap show on Oanda(which is open much earlier then any of the mt4 brokers). But due to size felt relevant to take on its own.

Hope that helps a bit
Mike[/quote]
  • #56,615
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:30am Mar 1, 2010 1:30am
Quoting mbqb11
Are you on vista? Can you see video? Are you using windows media player(is it full updated) do you have divx installed? If all else fails someone mentioned an AC3 filter.

I just have a fully updated fresh installed windows XP and windows media player and no problems here

Mike
Hi Mike

Ive got xp, can see the video and the cusor moving, tried opening it with real player, again all picture no sound

shall i delete the file and download it again?
  • #56,616
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:35am Mar 1, 2010 1:35am
Quoting antgal23
Hi Mike

Ive got xp, can see the video and the cusor moving, tried opening it with real player, again all picture no sound

shall i delete the file and download it again?
Have you tried opening with Windows Media Player(a fully updated version). This is what I would suggest(and what most everyone uses as they are WMV files.) If you have done that, I am not too sure you could try the last thing about an AC3 filter

Best
Mike
  • #56,617
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:43am Mar 1, 2010 1:43am
Quoting mbqb11
Gaps are very discretionary( I once ran nearly 60 min webinar just talking over them cause it is really open) and I only trade large clear ones and often ones that only show up on Oanda as well(usually it is...



QUOTE=mbqb11;44120]Hey Scott

Most of my gaps have a % equity stop. So I will go 3-5% (higher on the bigger gaps that I believe in). Most gaps now that I trade, I scale in even smaller then ever, this keeps fluctuation in equity down. The signals to add can be anything from blind touches, to PA, to a hunch. So as you can see the most discretionary form.

For example I opened a gap position nzd/usd. Added on a 15min . That added position I closed on the invalidation of the 15 min pin(small position about 1/4%. Then I recently added in again based on an hourly pin. Now I am only 23 pips out of the money which is still far off from the actual gap close. Many times I close in profit well before a gap close b/c of my slow scaling in.

Definitely the most discretionary part of my trading. Another cause for concern would be no gap show on Oanda(which is open much earlier then any of the mt4 brokers). But due to size felt relevant to take on its own.

Hope that helps a bit
Mike[/quote][/quote]

Thanks Mike. Is the video in the PF? If so I should have it somewhere ... I'll watch it if it is.
  • #56,618
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:45am Mar 1, 2010 1:45am
Quoting lovejoy80

Thanks Mike. Is the video in the PF? If so I should have it somewhere ... I'll watch it if it is.
yeah it is the 09-08-08 webinar about 8 mins in

Best
Mike
  • #56,619
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:47am Mar 1, 2010 1:47am
Quoting mbqb11
Have you tried opening with Windows Media Player(a fully updated version). This is what I would suggest(and what most everyone uses as they are WMV files.) If you have done that, I am not too sure you could try the last thing about an AC3 filter

Best
Mike
Thanks Mike!
  • #56,620
  • Mar 1, 2010 1:50am Mar 1, 2010 1:50am
Quoting antgal23
Thanks Mike!
did it work?

Mike
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