Let's make some money...

Hi all,

you might know my previous threads, the last one ended with some kind of desaster due to overleveraging.

Nevertheless I want to continue here with a small €1,000 account and trade more carefully now.

My main principles are still the old ones, which are:
- low leverage
- multiple entries
- scaling in and out of trades

I have a strong fundamental bias but will now take in more the technical side. I'll add more to this first posting later...

My first positions:

AUD/USD: long @8980 with 2,000 units
EUR/USD: long @1.36182 with 2,000 units
USD/JPY: long @89.11 with 2,000 units

I'm long Euro now because the weekly looks totally out of whack and we have some nice dojis there. I don't think about a trend change right now but at least 1.38 should be in the cards after several weeks of lower lows without any retracement.

USD/JPY long is just some kind of no brainer. It will go up in the long run, anything below 95 is cheap for me and anything below 90 just insane regarding the underlying fundamentals of Japan.

Nice to see you back. Good Trading to you sir.

Thanks! Just added a 2k long in the AUD/JPY at 80.10. Spreads are a bit horrible over there at MarketIndex...

On your EU trade, will you average in on a further drop, and do you trade the same size on add ins?

I was thinking EU to 1.4000, and a long above 1.3550 will probably turn out to be a nice profitable trade.

Thanks

Yes, I will add to this as long as 1.3440 holds. If that level breaks down, well oh well...

The recent pressure on the Euro is a bit overdone in my feeling even though some speak already about parity with the Dollar. I would say that this is possible if the Dollar would be in a better shape but not this year.

I've added a short in the Bund Future at 124.314 with 20 units. Reason: Double top in the daily.

Some charts:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/audjpy_010310.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/audusd_010310.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/bund_010310.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/eurusd_010310.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/usdjpy_010310.png

Okay thanks for the reply.

I can see the 3 candles on the weekly chart have been showing rejection of that 1.3440 level, I would like to see it stay above 1.3550 for a nice bounce in your favor. I will keep in touch and follow along, I am a scalper but want to learn longer term trading if you'll share.

Thanks.

Yep, the weekly looks promising for a recovery at least to 1.38-40. We'll see.

Added a short in Oil at 77.55 with 10 units. Just a small one but it looks like a nice bounce of the daily trendline. Will close that if we close above that line.

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/oil_010310.png

Gold looks interesting as well. Fundamentally I'm a bull here because all those FIAT currencies (including the top 3 USD, EUR and JPY) aren't worth anything anymore. But I might add a short at the top of the daily trendline around 1125 first.

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/gold_010310.png

And another entry: AUD/NZD short at 1.2843 with a target below 1.27 using 1,000 units. The RBA is expected to hike rates tomorrow and the Aussie already made a nice run. But the Kiwi might outperform the Aussie at least short term as the next rate hikes might come in NZ and the RBA might pause for a while...

Regarding AUD/NZD: Ashraf Laidi gave a nice short recommendation as well:

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/hot-chart/?a=1401

Actually I don't give much on those divergences but it sounds logical what he writes about it.

Current open positions:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/o...ons_010310.png

Here comes the EU weekly chart I refer to:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/eurusdw_010310.png

You can see the long tails the last 2 weeks which are a very good reversal pattern especially in the weekly time frame and after such a huge drop.

Of course there is no guarantee but I think a lot of bad stuff is now priced in and the fact that everyone and his grandma is now short Euro (the net short futures are now heavier than in 2008!) we will need some real bad news to add fresh shorts here. If we get at least some kind of good EU news this could become interesting. We even might see some short squeeze...

Ok, I've added a small Gold short right at 1123.30 with 1 unit at the top of that daily trendline.

I've set my target in the EU at 1.3690 for today. R1 is at 1.3697 for today plus we have a strong resistance around 1.37 because of the previous high at 1.3692 and the daily trendline coming down there (a small one actually).

I can imagine some bigger stops above 1.37 which want to be fished before the next down leg starts to fish the stops below 1.3440...

One of the best traders in FF is back in action.

Uh oh, thanks but if that is true it would be a bad sign.

Actually I still have to learn a lot and made stupid, stupid mistakes (did I mention stupid?).

Anyway the price action today in the Euro and especially Cable was just thrilling again. Made some losses of course.

Ok, I closed both my Oil and Bund short with a win. I had a nice USD/CAD short run as well and some heart attacking Euro lows testing where I added some bigger positions.

RBA did hike by 25bps which was widely expected. I think they will pause now for a while and the Aussie might tank especially as I expect some more stock market down moves. That's why I added a AUD/JPY short right now.

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/account_030310.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/mi/o...ons_030310.png