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AUD/USD

  • #17,861
  • Feb 28, 2010 4:40pm Feb 28, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting amyc
Probably nothing very dovish, my guess is interest rates will go up on tuesday.
All forecasts say interest rates will increase 0.25%
  • #17,862
  • Feb 28, 2010 4:43pm Feb 28, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting Brb-Fraudin
All forecasts say interest rates will increase 0.25%
Not mine.
  • #17,863
  • Feb 28, 2010 4:45pm Feb 28, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting Clouds
Not mine.
why not?
  • #17,864
  • Feb 28, 2010 4:51pm Feb 28, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting amyc
why not?
Why would they? Last time they didn't see any need. Any more hikes is usury.
  • #17,865
  • Feb 28, 2010 4:52pm Feb 28, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting Clouds
Why would they? Last time they didn't see any need. Any more hikes is usury.
since then though employment numbers have improved significantly and i would say the housing market would be on their minds as well.
  • #17,866
  • Feb 28, 2010 5:05pm Feb 28, 2010 5:05pm
Quoting amyc
since then though employment numbers have improved significantly and i would say the housing market would be on their minds as well.
well, i guess we'll have to wait and see, but last time they said they didn't raise rates, cause the banks were raising rates on their own. also, gotta wonder if higher rates will help their employment rate
  • #17,867
  • Feb 28, 2010 5:41pm Feb 28, 2010 5:41pm
Inserted Video



OFF TOPIC BUT HILARIOUS
Annoying Precision
  • #17,868
  • Feb 28, 2010 5:43pm Feb 28, 2010 5:43pm
I agree with clouds.... I dont see a hike either hello everyone...lets make this week a profitable one... still holding short on AUD and longs on JPY vs USD and GBP

good luck !!
  • #17,869
  • Feb 28, 2010 5:46pm Feb 28, 2010 5:46pm
Old Marines hit hard
Annoying Precision
  • #17,870
  • Feb 28, 2010 6:49pm Feb 28, 2010 6:49pm
does this line mean anything, probably not
Attached Image
  • #17,871
  • Feb 28, 2010 7:45pm Feb 28, 2010 7:45pm
Lots of debate whether they go or not. I am leaning toward another Rise. But if they don't look for Latin EM to cut expectations of rate rises.
  • #17,872
  • Feb 28, 2010 7:48pm Feb 28, 2010 7:48pm
Inflation for last month came in way low, this couldbe enough to stay RBA's hand..
  • #17,873
  • Feb 28, 2010 7:50pm Feb 28, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting Squarepants
Inflation for last month came in way low, this couldbe enough to stay RBA's hand..
inflation was low cause AUD gained last month (i think), but not sure it will last?!
  • #17,874
  • Feb 28, 2010 8:55pm Feb 28, 2010 8:55pm
I have taken longs on the aud at 8955 targeting 9078 and 9115. stops 8900. Also longs on eu at 1.3593 targeting 1.3710. stops 1.3550.

If those targets are reached then i will look at shorts on both markets.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #17,875
  • Feb 28, 2010 9:14pm Feb 28, 2010 9:14pm
Quoting amyc
I have taken longs on the aud at 8955 targeting 9078 and 9115. stops 8900. Also longs on eu at 1.3593 targeting 1.3710. stops 1.3550.

If those targets are reached then i will look at shorts on both markets.

Hi Amy. Good job picking the very bottom of this past pullback. I don't think I will be taking a long until I get confirmation at 8974 but I do believe that it will go to at least 9075!

Cheers
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #17,876
  • Feb 28, 2010 9:36pm Feb 28, 2010 9:36pm
I think that the dollar index is going to make one push down early this week into 80.45, shown in daily chart on the right, and then for the rest of March it will make a move upwards into 86.

The left chart is weekly and shows that the dollar has spent February consolidating above the blue line which is Q1 pp, to me that is bullish. The chart on the right is daily and shows price being capped by the weekly highs on friday the 19th. When this happens price will normally move back into the blue midpoints before the next up move takes place.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.GIF Size: 23 KB
  • #17,877
  • Edited 3:52am Mar 1, 2010 3:29am | Edited 3:52am
Quoting jesterx
The (USD) dollar cant work out what its doing
happy pipping to all.
Respectfully disagree. USD has been playing by the rules for weeks. Most recent reversal/resistance test was even almost perfectly on time with the latest fibo timezone.

76.4 fib fan almost perfect match to upper blue TL. Also (not shown on the chart) 78.6 fib fan of the same move is containing the price perfectly.

So many gaps at 79.6DX...price above 76.4 fan is looking more and more bull trappish except for support bounce from 61.8 fan.

Could be in a range with two horizontal red lines with 80.27 as the (rough) middle for a while to come.

April SPX 990 puts seem cheap to me. After a longtime correlation between EURJPY and the ES futs as well as SPY ETF (NYSE) during NY hours, the spread between the two instruments has widened dramatically. A long EURJPY/short SPY play looks good, especially with the latest COT report showing decreasing interest in JPY longs.

GMAE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #17,878
  • Mar 1, 2010 5:19am Mar 1, 2010 5:19am
Although my chart is a little more simple...I must agree that the DXY is caught up for the moment and will most likely provide some bullishness for the AUD/USD for some time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy.jpg Size: 93 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #17,879
  • Mar 1, 2010 5:55am Mar 1, 2010 5:55am
im getting tired of my short on AUD/USD..... but it seems like my 30m moving averages will cross in anytime now so downtrend will give me at least break even .

Guys you should watch GBPJPY it hit a super low just now 131.99 a fe mins ago...I think we havent seen better time to buy this low.

i took a position at 132.07 but didnt fill me up til like 4 minutes later when the price was already higher...sux!!! anyway i think is good time to trade this low pair besides the candlesticks show some bulling englufing patern
  • #17,880
  • Mar 1, 2010 6:56am Mar 1, 2010 6:56am
Quoting kourtney
Guys you should watch GBPJPY it hit a super low just now 131.99 a fe mins ago...I think we havent seen better time to buy this low.
You're very brave. That is like catching a falling knife. I have a low of 118.80 in January 2009. At least the Yen is holding up so far. Too much uncertainty with GBP with monetary/political policy. I wish you well.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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