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  • #10,281
  • Feb 27, 2010 8:12pm Feb 27, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strat and Nicolahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

The year has passed very quickly and it is appropriate to acknowledge those that put things right - guided us in the right direction. Appreciation for your foresight and dedication to continuous mastery of the trading is but a small token of gratitude. Without the constant reminder that in the random market only PASR is King there would be no successful trading for me and my wife. Although early in our trading career the improvements that we made are great, to see...
That captures the spirit of the thing. We are all after thoughful posts, even if they are proven incorrect. We are all incorrect, early, late, or off our game on occassion. Perhaps posting more will allow someone else to help the poster avoid a loss. The posts to which I object are those that show a lack of preparation. Yours are not among those.

This is a nasty business overall. Those sensitive souls requiring spoonfeeding will never succeed at it. Don't be afraid to be thought foolish...just don't look foolish.
  • #10,282
  • Feb 28, 2010 3:04am Feb 28, 2010 3:04am
Quoting Lou
It is a Given that one must trade what one sees. So lets say a trader uses two (or three) chart packages. One that orders are placed on , and another because the end of day is NY 5 pm. (and a third for any number of reasons).

Thus the trader could be looking at 3 different chart realities for the same pair. And the possibility that one or two charts show a PA trade signal while two or one do not.

What would you do? Why?
I think the main thing is to understand that this is a game with no guaranties. So it's up to you what you do. This signal is not a very usual one so it should be treated with respect and then, the rejection in the other chart packages doesn't belittle the double tweezers bouncing on Strat's support, does it?.

Yet no rules here, up to each trader when to press the button

What is also interesting in this pair to my eye, is that it it almost exactly in the middle of a 20 year range and 50% fibo. The monthly 20ma is pulling slightly down, weekly seems to be ranging between the 100 and 200 (I use the 200 out of habit), so no real indication of where this pair is going to go there.

So, my idea is to thank Start for this birthday pressie and then decide what I will do with it.

Spinner
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,283
  • Feb 28, 2010 5:40am Feb 28, 2010 5:40am
A chart that drew my attention. Two commodity champions, both correlated at the moment, so no big moves: Aud /Cad.

Monthly bounced from .9824, strong resistance. Moving averages offering a tasty spaguetti plate somewhere in the middle of the range.

Weekly, bouncing of support at .9209, Drawing what could be called a descending triangle. Making LH but not LL. Last candle a weak BUOB.

Daily, after two hanging men, we get a rejection at the DRSI, with 20,50 and 100 pointing down....

Maybe a trade to support.9029? R/R is good...

Have I forgotten anything? Fundis? The war of spikes?

Spinner

Spinner
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,284
  • Feb 28, 2010 9:40am Feb 28, 2010 9:40am
Quoting Lou
It is a Given that one must trade what one sees. So lets say a trader uses two (or three) chart packages. One that orders are placed on , and another because the end of day is NY 5 pm. (and a third for any number of reasons).

Thus the trader could be looking at 3 different chart realities for the same pair. And the possibility that one or two charts show a PA trade signal while two or one do not.

What would you do? Why?
In this case, Lou, I would think the trader is trying to find a package which shows him what he "thinks". This is the same as looking for a trade and is the danger of using more than one charting package. Whether right or wrong, statistics show that over time, everything evens itself out.

Just like the lurkers looking for a winning system - each one they find is a loser and they keep on searching not realising it is "they" who are the losers - not the system.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,285
  • Feb 28, 2010 10:48am Feb 28, 2010 10:48am
Hi all,

Once again I offer my head on the chopping block. The discussion on feeds and Strats post of his AUD/JPY chart has me wondering. I bought after the 2/24 candle which appeared to be hammer on my data off support after the previous days test of that level.

When Strat posted his chart I was trading into resistance on his chart and I would have never considered the trade with his s/r levels. I have reviewed my Levels and I am not sure I would change them, but are they wrong? Mine are based off the weekly line chart.

I guess the question is can s/r levels vary that much on different feeds or do I need to go back to page one on my s/r levels? Chart attached.

Poncho
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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" I can read the left side of the chart, the right side's a Bitch!
  • #10,286
  • Feb 28, 2010 12:12pm Feb 28, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting poncho1
Hi all,

Once again I offer my head on the chopping block. The discussion on feeds and Strats post of his AUD/JPY chart has me wondering. I bought after the 2/24 candle which appeared to be hammer on my data off support after the previous days test of that level.

When Strat posted his chart I was trading into resistance on his chart and I would have never considered the trade with his s/r levels. I have reviewed my Levels and I am not sure I would change them, but are they wrong? Mine are based off the weekly line chart.

I guess the question...
For me they are both levels and I could make a good argument for another one at 81.40. In this case I am treating it as a zone rather than a hard line.
Let's see what Strat says.

For me I see conflict on a lot of charts. Gold, Crude, Indices, AUDUSD have weekly hanging man candles. EURUSD looks like it is done selling off for a bit.
We could start March with another sell off or we could have some more chop while the bulls and bears fight it out.

There are some markets that are trending really well though (GBPAUD, EURAUD) or have broken out (EURGBP, GBPCHF)
  • #10,287
  • Feb 28, 2010 12:20pm Feb 28, 2010 12:20pm
Anyone knows symbol for GBP index?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #10,288
  • Feb 28, 2010 12:52pm Feb 28, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting poncho1
Hi all,

Once again I offer my head on the chopping block. The discussion on feeds and Strats post of his AUD/JPY...
I think the answer to your question would be yes but only for the minor levels on the daily charts (wicks and tails and such) The big swings should be pretty close.

You might want to add some pips onto your trade entry and exit buffers on the JPY crosses because of their volatility. i use a 10 pip buffer on say EU but usually 15 to 20 on JPY pairs.
  • #10,289
  • Feb 28, 2010 1:01pm Feb 28, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting elitejets
I'm sorry if you (or anyone) feels to intimidated about posting.
In the very beginning of the thread Strat encouraged people to post charts, say what they were thinking and ask if they weren't sure what to do or how to trade it.
There isn't any spoonfeeding here but if you ask you usually receive!

I wish people would post and ask more, because it usually generates a good discussion that everyone will learn from.

Don't be shy people!!

SO how do you trade if you dont mind me asking
sorry for the blunt asking but lets talk business hopefully help each other out
  • #10,290
  • Feb 28, 2010 1:24pm Feb 28, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting swano
SO how do you trade if you dont mind me asking
sorry for the blunt asking but lets talk business hopefully help each other out
You obviously haven't read the thread Price action at support and resistance, daily and weekly charts. Candlesticks or OHLC, doesn't matter.
  • #10,291
  • Feb 28, 2010 2:07pm Feb 28, 2010 2:07pm
I'am liking the looks of this.

Lots of R at 1.2800 but we had a nice hammer off of it and a close above 1.2800
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,292
  • Feb 28, 2010 2:13pm Feb 28, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting poncho1
Hi all,

Once again I offer my head on the chopping block. The discussion on feeds and Strats post of his AUD/JPY...
Why not take a look at closing prices.. using a line graph. Just eyeballing the chart I would favor an S/R line that hits a lot of closing prices rather than wicks, which would be close to 79.80 . Daily chart.
  • #10,293
  • Feb 28, 2010 4:01pm Feb 28, 2010 4:01pm
I want to thank you Strat for your gravity theory.It is very clear.
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My humble opinion.
  • #10,294
  • Feb 28, 2010 5:18pm Feb 28, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting strat
In this case, Lou, I would think the trader is trying to find a package which shows him what he "thinks". This is the same as looking for a trade and is the danger of using more than one charting package. Whether right or wrong, statistics show that over time, everything evens itself out.

Just like the lurkers looking for a winning system - each one they find is a loser and they keep on searching not realising it is "they" who are the losers - not the system.
Lou,
There are several earlier posts from me having the very same mental hurdle on those dang charts. No need to go back and read them because they're just saying the same thing yours is.

Early on, I was very frustrated because the PA on my charts never matched up with Strat's when he showed a setup. My charts weren't even close. Same thing happened with Alexandra's, Elitejets' and Blackeagle's charts. Mine weren't even close. I searched and searched and finally found charts that matched theirs. This created it's own set of problems...I had to decide which one had the 'correct' PA. Foiled again! So, I did in fact have 3 different broker feeds.

For about a month, I struggled silently with which one was right until one comment that both Strat and Blackeagle made at separate times hit me between the eyes yet again. Stop looking so close and zoom out to see the big picture.

Without all the 'nudge, nudge, wink, wink' here's what that meant to me. No matter what your charting package, zoom out to see the HH and HL or LH and LL. Those are the same on any data feed. SR levels will of course be slightly different but I decided that if my SR levels were within 15-30 pips of theirs then data feed aside, I had to be pretty close. Once you add 15-30 pips on either side of your SR then you have a pretty broad range to watch for PA. Strat has said 'watch for PA around SR'. That's what I've adopted it to mean for me.

Let's say that Strat's SS looks like a plain old bearish bar on your feed. I do this on my SR lines even if no one posts a chart on it. This is where I use my interpretation of seeing beyond the candles...I envision in my head that zone around SR and see the candle before and maybe even the one before that. I see what the buyers and sellers were doing and many times it will show me exactly what a SS does even though it isn't a SS. Sometimes the buying and selling represented by those candles is the same defintion (buyers and sellers wise) as a BEEB or BEOB.

For example a SS from a buying and selling standpoint simply means that buyers pushed price to a higher extreme and ran out of buying power at which time there were more sellers than buyers and pushed it right back down. You can sometimes watch that type of activity over the course of 2 or 3 days without showing an actual SS.

I hope I haven't confused the matter but I have finally been able to stick with one broker feed.

-m
  • #10,295
  • Feb 28, 2010 8:05pm Feb 28, 2010 8:05pm
Marcus,

Your comments above make a great post. Sorry I did not remember any earlier posts about this topic. Sometimes I have a problem with short term memory. And then sometimes I have a problem with short term memory.

Seriously, the info copied below from your post is very important to remember. I too like to think of S/R as zones or areas.

For anyone who has time to do it, taking a couple of week's worth of daily bars and having a running commentary on what the candles are saying about buyers/sellers might be a good tutorial.

This is good stuff:

No matter what your charting package, zoom out to see the HH and HL or LH and LL. Those are the same on any data feed. SR levels will of course be slightly different but I decided that if my SR levels were within 15-30 pips of theirs then data feed aside, I had to be pretty close. Once you add 15-30 pips on either side of your SR then you have a pretty broad range to watch for PA. Strat has said 'watch for PA around SR'. That's what I've adopted it to mean for me.
Let's say that Strat's SS looks like a plain old bearish bar on your feed. I do this on my SR lines even if no one posts a chart on it. This is where I use my interpretation of seeing beyond the candles...I envision in my head that zone around SR and see the candle before and maybe even the one before that. I see what the buyers and sellers were doing and many times it will show me exactly what a SS does even though it isn't a SS. Sometimes the buying and selling represented by those candles is the same defintion (buyers and sellers wise) as a BEEB or BEOB.

For example a SS from a buying and selling standpoint simply means that buyers pushed price to a higher extreme and ran out of buying power at which time there were more sellers than buyers and pushed it right back down. You can sometimes watch that type of activity over the course of 2 or 3 days without showing an actual SS.
  • #10,296
  • Mar 1, 2010 2:42am Mar 1, 2010 2:42am
Good post Marcus.

By the way, I'm having a strange deja-vu feeling right now: me replying one of your posts (or someone else's which looks like this one) in a morning while my neighbor is drilling a hole in the ceilling... anyway, probably just another disturbance in the matrix.

Quoting mstandifer
Let's say that Strat's SS looks like a plain old bearish bar on your feed....
What you are saying makes sense. Strat posts a nice SS and one looks beyond their candles to see on his chart what a SS means. If one blend a BEEB or a BEOB, can get a SS.

But what if you see a nice SS on your chart which is not on Strat's? Do you see beyond that SS to stay out of a trade? While a BEEB or BEOB is a clear and basic PA, you can get a SS also from some not-so-basic PA.

I'm using 2 platforms Oanda and Mt4, like Lou does. But I use only the feed from MT4 to look for trades and Oanda only to place the trades. I choose to ignore any PA that I see on Oanda even if i could trade only their charts. Indeed the charts sometimes say the same thing. Often, if on Mt4 i get a SS, on Oanda I have a BEEB, and viceversa.
  • #10,297
  • Mar 1, 2010 4:02am Mar 1, 2010 4:02am
I would like to ask you advice regarding the AUDNZD.
I've placed a SELL order on the BEEB from Thursday. Friday the order was activated. Friday had a strong rejection from 20 EMA and there is also a support at ~1.28 which I have considered (and stil consider it) minor relative to the R from ~1.29.

I haven't canceled my order after I saw that Friday hammer because I consider the resistance still powerful. I do not consider this trade being a mistake but I would like to ask your thoughts on this trade, while its still fresh.

What do you think I did wrong (if that's the case) or what I should have done better. Should I have waited for the price to go down first?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,298
  • Mar 1, 2010 4:16am Mar 1, 2010 4:16am
Audnzd: PA was good but trend is still up and strong. I ll wait for a pullback and then go long with the trend.
  • #10,299
  • Mar 1, 2010 4:30am Mar 1, 2010 4:30am
Quoting hcristea
I would like to ask you advice regarding the AUDNZD.
I've placed a SELL order on the BEEB from Thursday. Friday the order was activated. Friday had a strong rejection from 20 EMA and there is also a support at ~1.28 which I have considered (and stil consider it) minor relative to the R from ~1.29.

I haven't canceled my order after I saw that Friday hammer because I consider the resistance still powerful. I do not consider this trade being a mistake but I would like to ask your thoughts on this trade, while its still fresh.

What do you think...
Although my daily PA was showing BEOB when the bar closed on Thursday, if you look at attached Big Boss chart, you'll see that major SR was just above 1.2800 and you sold to the major support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD-Monthly.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #10,300
  • Mar 1, 2010 4:42am Mar 1, 2010 4:42am
Quoting Blackeagle
What if 1.5700 gives way? God save the Queen !!!
Even God gave up saving the Queen. LOL.

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