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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,801
  • Edited 12:45pm Feb 27, 2010 10:59am | Edited 12:45pm
Quoting jacson101
Thanks lp,
Scary stuff. Although the US can naturally have its ups and downs, variances in fig's and fiscal (accounting) policies can be huge and a return to normalcy in relatively short order would not be an outlier IMHO, a la Clinton second term..
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLI...inton.surplus/

Many countries rely on the US, this is not a US problem alone.
I reckon one would see many sovereign failures prior to the US such as we have, misery likes company and conversely it is lonely at the top. And...
Nice to catch a little of bizet from time to time.

Ok this is my all time favourites in the classicals genre.
Mostly because of the flow.
Yes the Johann Strauss's Blue Denube Waltz.
Something clicked with me and this piece, even from childhood Nepoleon craze days. But had never been able to figure it out. It just fills me up.
See if it suits.

regards

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and Kiri te's Chants d'Auvergne series
here's her Bailero

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and of course pucini's greatest, O mio babbino caro
Couldn't find the Marie Callas version.

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and pavarotti's ,Nessun Dorma

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and Miserere

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and
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Morning mood
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  • #13,802
  • Edited 5:49pm Feb 27, 2010 3:50pm | Edited 5:49pm
My napoleon years is right
Thanks for sharing, suits the flow very well.
Regards sir,
  • #13,803
  • Edited Feb 28, 2010 1:22pm Feb 27, 2010 8:22pm | Edited Feb 28, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting auxesis
Lilpip,

Reading this morning from Daniel ch.7:7-8,

After this I saw in the night visions, and behold a fourth beast, dreadful and terrible, and strong exceedingly; and it had great iron teeth: it devoured and brake in pieces, and stamped the residue with the feet of it: and it [was] diverse from all the beasts that [were] before it; and it had ten horns.

[i]I considered the horns, and, behold, there came up among them another little horn, before whom there were three of the first horns plucked up by the roots: and, behold, in this horn...
Good for you, glad to hear your searching the scriptures as bible reading takes much discipline in todays hectic life. Ive been trying to do so for over 20 years.
The foretold succession of the world powers symbolized by beast your reading (Daniel 7:2-18; 8:20,21 is one topic that first convinced me to look into the bible as I realized then that the bible applies to today and not just for those of years past.
Daniel lived past the fall of the Babylon world power (the lion) and into the start of its successor Medo-Persia (the bear).
Daniels long range prophecy foretold Medo Persia's fall before greece (the leopard), which in turn is replaced by a 4th beast or 6th world power, the Roman Empire and its out growth the (U.S. Britain Anglo-American dual world power small horn speaking developed during the 1st world war.)
The 4th beast noted "strong exceedingly " meaning military and far reaching rule or land occupation and political and religous influence that reached one quarter of the earth and population for about a 1,000 years.
The bible often uses the number 10 to denote completeness, the 10 horns represent all the kingdoms that resulted from Romes dissolution.
Now to your question.
Who is the king, when did he rise, and what three kings did he humiliate?
Consider, 55 B.C.E. Julius Ceaser invaded Brittania but failed to establish permanent settlement.
In 43 C.E., Emperor Claudius began a more permanent conquest of southern Britain.
Then in 122C.E. Emperor Hadrian began to build a wall from the tyne river to the Solway Firth, marking the northern limit of the roman empire.
Early in the 5th century the roman legions left the island.
In the 16th century explained one historian England had been a second rate power. Its wealth was slight compared to the Neatherlands . Its population was much less than that of France. Its armed forces (including its navy ) were inferior to Spains. Britain was apparently a insignificant kingdom then making up the small horn of the forth beast.
But that was to change
In 1588 Phillip II of Spain launched the Spanish Armada aginst Britain and suffered defeat. Which also marks the passing of Spanish naval supperority to Britain.
In the 17th century Britain prevailed over the Dutch kingdom and in the 18th over the French leading to the treaty of Paris 1763. Britains supremacy was confirmed with victory over Napolean of France in 1815.
Spain, Neatherlands and France were the three humiliated. (Dan.7:24).
The small horn became a world power.

This is where it gets interesting.

The last of the great world powers Egypt, Assyria,Babylon,Medo-Persia,Greece,Rome, as John writes Revelation 17:10 brings out the one not yet is the dual Anglo-American world power is the seventh.

Who is the 8 th king for a short while that comes from the 7th ?

It is right before our eyes as we see the groundwork being laid.

Rev.13:11-13 gives the clue.

The Anglo-American world power, the same as the 7th head of the wild beast is in a special role.
Isolating it in a vision as a seperate wild beast acts here independently on the world stage.
The figureative 2 horns indicate a partnership of 2 political powers asending out of the earth (not the sea of mankind) thus coming from out of Satans already established earthly system of things( political, religious,and commerce). A world power already existing that takes on a significant role in the last days.
The 2 horns like a lamb suggest that is mild and inoffensive with an enlightened form of government to which all the world should turn.
The fire out of heaven or claims to have been able to calm the forces of evil in 2 world wars and victory over godless communism.

So this beast is pushing mankind towards the wild beast who's death stroke got healed.
What or who represents this beast ?

My friend things are going to get worse before they get better.
Once this 8th king is established they will claim thers peace and security 1 thessalonians 5:2,3) when there really isnt and that is the begining of the end of this system.

The greek word for revelation is apokalypsis which means uncovering or unveiling, not a message of world doom but an uncovering of bible truths that build in our hearts hope and faith. You remember when you prayed, you prayed Thy will be done on earth, or the meek will inherit the earth and the wicked are torn away from it. As Rev.21:1 says A new heaven and earth the former systems have passed away.

enough on that,
seems like the trend is still down on the e/u.
my eye is on 3638-3700
  • #13,804
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:49pm Feb 27, 2010 9:49pm
seems you guys talk so muhc about Bible... i should start looking at GITA more often...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhagavad_Gita


V
  • #13,805
  • Edited 4:10pm Feb 28, 2010 12:19am | Edited 4:10pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
I am fooling around with trade simulator sometimes over the weekend. Almost always I end up in +. Here is example on Pound from 2/22. Although it was choppy ... nice profit. I "ONLY" have to get rid off my emotional garbage/scorpions and I'll be fine then ....... lol
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  • #13,806
  • Feb 28, 2010 5:58am Feb 28, 2010 5:58am
Guys,


Remember the last major top of the E$ - the one at around 1,60? I'm sure you do. Well, try to remember the moods then - everyone was talking about the crash of the dollar and how the end of it as a reserve currency is just round the corner. EVERYONE was crazily bearish on the dollar.

It's an old rule in financial markets that when even cleaners start buying stocks then it's time for the smart money to start selling.

Looking at the charts and reading all the rubbish about the end of the euro... Is it just me, or are we looking at a closing bottom?

Just thinking out loud.

P.S. I love Occam's razor...

Edit: got the top mixed with the bottom, fixed now.
  • #13,807
  • Feb 28, 2010 7:10am Feb 28, 2010 7:10am
Quoting Setebos
Guys,


Remember the last major top of the E$ - the one at around 1,60? I'm sure you do. Well, try to remember the moods then - everyone was talking about the crash of the dollar and how the end of it as a reserve currency is just round the corner. EVERYONE was crazily bearish on the dollar.

It's an old rule in financial markets that when even cleaners start buying stocks then it's time for the smart money to start selling.

Looking at the charts and reading all the rubbish about the end of the euro... Is it just me, or are we looking at...
Lots of big investors (eg, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, to name a few) lost hundreds of millions of dollars betting against the dollar back then. I think they learned their lesson well.

I think the euro will retrace from here or go sideways for a while, but the trend stays south until the PIGS are resolved, or a bigger issue in the US arises to steal away the negative headlines from the euro. The great thing about trading the forex: we don't care where the currencies are going in a year, but where they are going in the next 3-4 hours! Trade well everyone!
  • #13,808
  • Feb 28, 2010 7:12am Feb 28, 2010 7:12am
Quoting lilpip
Good for you, glad to hear your searching the scriptures as bible reading takes much discipline in todays hectic life. Ive been trying to do so for over 20 years.
The foretold succession of the world powers symbolized by beast your reading (Daniel 7:2-18; 8:20,21 is one topic that first convinced me to look into the bible as I realized then that the bible applies to today and not just for those of years past.
Daniel lived past the fall of the Babylon world power (the lion) and into the start of its successor Medo-Persia (the bear).
Daniels long...
I love and really appreciate your posts!
  • #13,809
  • Edited 11:05am Feb 28, 2010 10:23am | Edited 11:05am
Hi All,
with the rigidity and fallacies creeping into the thread,
I am not suprised that some will be in deep trouble soon.
Well Que Sera Sera.
Maybe it time to reread the thread?

regards
  • #13,810
  • Edited 11:56am Feb 28, 2010 11:17am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting fti
Hi All,
with the rigidity and fallacies creeping into the thread,
I am not suprised that some will be in deep trouble soon.
Well Que Sera Sera.
Maybe it time to reread the thread?

regards
Hi FTI
I am translating my notes again, stole my pda
I think not to read the beginning of thread.


"When I was just a little girl,
I asked my mother, What will I be?
Will I be pretty?
Will I be rich?`
Here`s what she said to me

Que sera, sera,
Whatever will be, will be;
The future`s not ours to see.
Que sera, sera,"

Regards

PS for interest compare to with global ekonomy, I have this from 1993 (TimeWaveZero)
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  • #13,811
  • Feb 28, 2010 11:24am Feb 28, 2010 11:24am
Quoting auxesis
Lilpip,

But we know what's coming and it's not pretty for those that follow the world. Global Dictatorship is approaching as the world's financial problems melt down, as it will be the only answer to put everything back in order, but how bad must it get for a free society to willingly give up it's freedom, for the promise?

I never expected that such a thing was possible
in the short that I am given to live under the sun.

Now it is time to prepare.
Move south -a warmer climate
Learn something useful - have a garden
Share your lot - Have some friends.

"Let no one on the roof of his house go down to take anything out of the house.
Let no one in the field go back to get his cloak.
How dreadful it will be in those days for pregnant women and nursing mothers!
Pray that your flight will not take place in winter.."
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #13,812
  • Edited Mar 1, 2010 3:13am Feb 28, 2010 11:40am | Edited Mar 1, 2010 3:13am
Quoting GEfx
Lots of big investors (eg, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, to name a few) lost hundreds of millions of dollars betting against the dollar back then. I think they learned their lesson well.

I think the euro will retrace from here or go sideways for a while, but the trend stays south until the PIGS are resolved, or a bigger issue in the US arises to steal away the negative headlines from the euro. The great thing about trading the forex: we don't care where the currencies are going in a year, but where they are going in the next 3-4 hours! Trade...
I'm far from looking into my crystal ball (can't find the damn thing ), just thinking out loud while enjoying the weekend. IMHO the marker will have the final saying, not individual big boys (with all due respect). All I can do is stay nimble.
  • #13,813
  • Edited 3:33pm Feb 28, 2010 2:06pm | Edited 3:33pm
Quoting Setebos
I'm far from looking into my crystal ball (can't find he damn thing ), just thinking out loud while enjoying the weekend. IMHO the marker will have the final saying, not individual big boys (with all due respect). All I can do is stay nimble.
Hi Setebos,
if people will stop blinding themselves with bias, they would had seen what i saw on friday.
I killed many cable and euro shorts, groping in the dark, blinded by their own bias.
The dancers here, ,many left to attend to their dance, while many were blinded by their intelligence. Well what more can I say. Sure the outside day keyreversal for a short push was in play all week. Too many were too greedy to take profits until they saw the blades at their throat. TECHNICALLY, we call what happened on friday SHORT COVERING.

Back to basics , and keep the faith.
You use the crystal balls and you are my meals.
Try to remember, mine are not crystal , they are balls of steel.


It is not theirs to reason why,
but to show to sell or buy.
the dance, she cannot lie.
but I am sorry for the blind.

regards

If you don't learn from your lesson,
well she will just need teach you again and again, until you learn. But of course you have an advantage, you found the thread. Many are still scratching their heads. Don't believe me? just check the wires.

Has she bottomed? be my guest, crystal ball it.

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  • #13,814
  • Feb 28, 2010 3:23pm Feb 28, 2010 3:23pm
[quote=fti;1729266]Apologies
the holy grail

think your very right so where can i research about market sturcture?

where do i start ?

where must i begin my journey?
  • #13,815
  • Feb 28, 2010 3:30pm Feb 28, 2010 3:30pm
[quote=swano;3506046]
Quoting fti
Apologies
the holy grail

think your very right so where can i research about market sturcture?

where do i start ?

where must i begin my journey?
Right here, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639

And start reading, the first 200 pages will take you through the necessary reading and homework, take your time, as the journey is about understanding and self-application, not necessarily a one-size fits all - this is hows it's done, approach.

regards,
  • #13,816
  • Feb 28, 2010 3:31pm Feb 28, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting acim
I am fooling around with trade simulator sometimes over the weekend. Almost always I end up in +. Here is example on Pound from 2/22. Although it was choppy ... nice profit. I "ONLY" have to get rid off my emotional garbage/spiders and I'll be fine then ....... lol
so did your stratagy work real time ?

what do you do if so
or why not?
  • #13,817
  • Feb 28, 2010 3:36pm Feb 28, 2010 3:36pm
Quoting swano
so did your stratagy work real time ?

what do you do if so
or why not?
No swano,
Since you asked, then I know, it's not for you.
You asked the wrong questions.
There ain't no free lunch.

regards
  • #13,818
  • Feb 28, 2010 3:40pm Feb 28, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting lilpip
Good for you, glad to hear your searching the scriptures as bible reading takes much discipline in todays hectic life. Ive been trying to do so for over 20 years.
The foretold succession of the world powers symbolized by beast your reading (Daniel 7:2-18; 8:20,21 is one topic that first convinced me to look into the bible as I realized then that the bible applies to today and not just for those of years past.
Daniel lived past the fall of the Babylon world power (the lion) and into the start of its successor Medo-Persia (the bear).
Daniels long...
Nice post.

regards
  • #13,819
  • Edited 5:00pm Feb 28, 2010 4:46pm | Edited 5:00pm
Hi all,
note the short covers in progress.
also note the crosses.
Big money at war.
volatility will increase, watch out for invisible knifes.


regards
  • #13,820
  • Feb 28, 2010 4:46pm Feb 28, 2010 4:46pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by acim http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I am fooling around with trade simulator sometimes over the weekend. Almost always I end up in +. Here is example on Pound from 2/22. Although it was choppy ... nice profit. I "ONLY" have to get rid off my emotional garbage/scorpions and I'll be fine then ....... lol

swano: "so did your strategy work real time" ?



Hi Swano,

Title of my post was : "Would be nice if it's "real" ..... so it's not happening for "real" . I am just trying to "unlearn" 10 years worth of scorpions ... (actually 50 years in this lifetime or who knows how many more if you believe in reincarnation)
(http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post3496772

Do yourself a great favor and start reading this thread from the beginning, get rid of all those TA things (ma's rsi etc) you listed on your profile and watch only price action (candles and nothing else - or bars - I can see chart patterns easier on them vs candles). Don't waste your time (e.g. 10 years .....lol) with indicators, EA's and robots. Don't look for any trading gurus, you have one on this thread - would you believe it - for free , plus many other smart traders. Take advantage of it :-)

Maybe this will help to "speed up" the learning curve ....
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post3415581
but on the other hand don't rush anything, it will take time (based on fti comments and more experienced fti students. I'm newbie - I've stumbled on this thread in Dec '09)

Wish you all the best :-)
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