james16 Chart Thread

Hey Pinnocchio,

Lets break down this pair according to James16's principals.
First of all, we want to trade bearish price action bars at swing highs, and bullish price action bars at swing lows. Here we have a bearish pin not at a swing point. Therefore this is going to be a trade in a ranging market. although the main trend is down, this pair is very choppy and moves down in a range form.

On the positive side, you do have quite a bounce of confluence factors protecting you. You can see the clear price flip, nice looking bar, 365ema which I know james16 would put some weigh on it, and eventually the general move down.

Knowing the james16's principals you can be able to trade profitably in any kind of market condition. So if you do take this bar, where is it likely to go once broke? Of cause the next minor side to side support and resistance price flip I marked in purple.


Now once we broke it down, time to take decision. Will you take a less than A++ bar? if you do, are you going to use your knowledge and cut your risk to zero once price done what it was supposed to do? or you are going to do nothing and hope for a break lower? Or just leave it all as it is and wait for the next daily A+ trade that can form any day on any of the other 30+ pairs you are looking at?

Nothing is right or wrong to do, as long as you have a plan which have been proven to work, provides you enough confidence, and fits your comfort zone as a trader. I know James trades these kind of bars sometimes, and he knows what he is doing.

This is just how I see it though.

PS - an example for an A++ setup in my book on this pair (second chart).

Hope this helps.

Ben

This is my 1st post. Been working my way through mountain of information. The quality of information is amazing, why would anyone ever want to pay for a forex course?


I have been trading for 3 years without success, but now am back to the drawing board.

Referring to this post and accepting that this is a 1 Hr chart , did form a pin and did close above 135 BRN (did form a Pin on 4 Hr later, so I wonder if any traders took this trade), I have the following questions:

1) There is support, to the left, but you have not mentioned it, is this not a requirement?
2) This is a countertrend trade, is this Pin (Which I accept is similar in size to surrounding bars), sufficient to reverse this trend?
3) I am aware that you move to BE very quickly, but where would you set 1st take profit, and where would you stop be. So called trading wisdom I have read talk about a mimimum risk reward ratio of 1:3. This does not appear to be applied in this thread, or I may have missed it.

Some general questions:

1) For how many bars, would a PA bar be regarded as valid. I think Pring mentions 5 or 6, is this correct.
2) Would a bar that has Pin bar characteristics, other than close not being within the left eye, which is also not an BEOB/BUOB, be disregarded.
3) As per Benji's comments he doesn't like to combine 2 bars, to create a PA bar. Is this only acceptable for experienced traders or can it be used by newer traders? Will experienced traders ever combine more than 2 bars.

Regards

Martin

Thanks buddy. I agree with you, this pair does tend to oscillate more on the way down. With your help and the help of others in this thread I will endeavour to become pickier in future!

Thanks again

(PS you guys always beat me in identifying A+ setups )

Whew

... Sadly, about 120 people have been confirmed dead in Chile as a result of the occurrence of an earthquake. HipsterPispter and all you traders in Chile, I hope you're all safe.. At least do us a favor by responding on the thread.

Thanks.

yes all our thoughts our with Dion very much. And for all our other Chile friends here

Hey MT I will answer your questions in bold

quote=mt2;3504666]This is my 1st post. Been working my way through mountain of information. The quality of information is amazing, why would anyone ever want to pay for a forex course?

Welcome to our "little thread"


I have been trading for 3 years without success, but now am back to the drawing board.

Referring to this post and accepting that this is a 1 Hr chart , did form a pin and did close above 135 BRN (did form a Pin on 4 Hr later, so I wonder if any traders took this trade), I have the following questions:

1) There is support, to the left, but you have not mentioned it, is this not a requirement?
Benji didn't mention it b/c it was more implied with price being at the 135 this is part of the reason to take the trade
2) This is a countertrend trade, is this Pin (Which I accept is similar in size to surrounding bars), sufficient to reverse this trend?
Agreed actually, too small for my liking but benji is playing it real tight which I will address in question 3
3) I am aware that you move to BE very quickly, but where would you set 1st take profit, and where would you stop be. So called trading wisdom I have read talk about a mimimum risk reward ratio of 1:3. This does not appear to be applied in this thread, or I may have missed it.
That purple line is where he would move to b/e, as for if he would take full profit or let it run, or take some off. That is up to each individual trader. As for Risk:Reward. Throw it out the window. It is one of the most common misconceptions about trading. In the end the only role R:R plays is from the numbers of your actual method. I take trades that end up going 2R, I take some that going .25R. It is all about understanding the information more then a set R:R(not saying some people don't or it is wrong, just that the general misconception from trading "books" is wrong).

Some general questions:

1) For how many bars, would a PA bar be regarded as valid. I think Pring mentions 5 or 6, is this correct.
Again very much trader dependent. I cancel my order if the next order doesn't break the bar about 98% of the time. This is how I measure momentum. Some will leave it till it either breaks, or invalidates the bar.

2) Would a bar that has Pin bar characteristics, other than close not being within the left eye, which is also not an BEOB/BUOB, be disregarded.
If a "pin" like bar doesn't close within the left bar then it is not a pin. It can be a pin by proxy. Meaning it closes within some other bar close by. I don't like those personally when you get so many great bars as is.
3) As per Benji's comments he doesn't like to combine 2 bars, to create a PA bar. Is this only acceptable for experienced traders or can it be used by newer traders? Will experienced traders ever combine more than 2 bars.
This is just trader preference. I prefer not to combine bars so it keeps me from over trading and just focusing on my A+ setups I am used to. Many people combine bars with great success(see Jarroo). I would say initially stick to not just so you get good at it that way, then add it if you like.

Hope this helps and again welcome
Mike

Regards

Martin[/quote]

[quote=mbqb11;3504757]Hey MT I will answer your questions in bold

quote=mt2;3504666]This is my 1st post. Been working my way through mountain of information. The quality of information is amazing, why would anyone ever want to pay for a forex course?

Welcome to our "little thread"


Hi Mike,

Thanks for concise reply.

Just one more question. According to Benji PA must be at a swing high/low. According to your pin bar video, one of your favourite setups is when a pinbar occurs in direction of main trend, after a retracement. This happened twice this past week on Eur Usd on 4 Hr charts. Is this just personal preference, as all trades will then be counter trend.

Martin

The three kinds of sleep - I thought they were:

1 Sleep like a baby
2 Sleep like a log
3 The big sleep.


<grin>

Hi everyone, please check my chart and tell me where would you see the first trouble area.

Have a nice week end.

Hey TS

These late friday bars are often just profit taking before the weekend especially off such a huge down move. This one hit the first low and bounced. I like to avoid these late day bars pretty much all the time

Best
Mike

Thank you Mike

These take profits bars seem very common, look what happened last Friday => http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=55514 and compare with today's GU price.

yep it is very common, people closing up for the weekend so they don't leave themselves open to risk.

But also notice all these bars still go to where as expected Isn't it nice never to be caught by surprise !

Best
Mike

Think about fear....what fear really is, what are the results of fear, how can one deal with fear, and what does it have to do with trading.

For me fear is the enemy that works against you from nature. Fear is not coming from the person itself, no one born with fear. Fear is an emotional response to past experience. Fear is the fuel of hate, greed and hope, while greed and ego are impacting fear and fueling it to be stronger in the same time.
Fear is a result of believing that a negative outcome is more likely to take place than a positive outcome.

Fear can avoid you from pulling the trigger because you do not have enough confidence and belief that price would do what you think it should do. That will happen when you memories failed trades, and let these memories control your desicion.
Fear can make you kill a trade too early because you can not stand the draw down period. Fear is the fuel of greed and the opposite of confidence. Greed and lack of confidence would lead to hope. Hope will kill you.

In my opinion, the root of all the negative emotions is fear. Fear leads to hate, greed, anger, revenge, lack of confidence and hope. But withot these emotions, fear wouldn't exist, so these same emotions are the root of the fear in the same time.
There are many successful traders which managed to bypass and hide from their fear by using their technical methods approaching the market. But dealing with fear, controlling and eliminating is far harder from that.

Why and from what do we fear? When we do not follow our plan or technical thought process, we fear. We fear from being wrong. But what is so scary about being wrong? It's because of our EGO. EGO is the first reason of fear. Secondly, we are afraid from losing money. But again, why? It's because money is a too highly valuable source in our mind - or in other words - GREED.
Ego and greed are the roots of fear imo.

How can we win our fear? imo by taking care of the root problems. We must let go our ego and greed. This is the hardest thing to do imo. This is way above the level of being a good technical trader spotting good patterns. Ego and greed are emotions that every person on earth, regardless if he trade or not, have difficulty to deal with.

The opposite of fear is confidence. You gain confidence from positive experiences (just like you gain fear from negative experience). One way to gain confidence is to reduce fear. You can reduce fear by reducing greed. One way to reduce greed is to reduce risk till you get to the point that your risk isn't such valuable for you. For me, risk tolerance is the rage where the amount of money risked is not enough valuable for you to impact you emotionally. knowing your risk tolerance is one way of controlling greed which leads to fear.
Second way to gain confidence (opposite of fear), is believing and trusting your technical method to approach the market. By spending tremendous amount of hours and hard work back testing and researching your method (entry and management method), can help you gain more confidence = less fear. But nothing is like positive live experience, and experience takes time. You must work hard, especially in the first stage to gain a positive experience and confidence.

Fear, greed and ego are only emotions. They are not real. they are only real IN YOUR MIND. Knowing this can help believing that YOU CAN CONTROL THEM. YOU CAN CONTROL YOU MIND. YOU CAN FIGHT THESE EMOTIONS KNOWING THEY ARE WILL ONLY DESTROY AND RUIN YOU IF YOU DO NOT.


=====


Why are you trading? what is the main purpose of your trading? If it's pure money making, then you have no chance. This is because you must have a powerful enough energy source to fight these emotion evolved.
Just think about it. If you trade purely for making money, that means that money is one of the top valued sources in your mind - in other words: YOU ARE GREEDY!!! How on earth can greed be the energy source of fighting greed? Negative can never lead to positive. Period. This is the reality in the world we live in.

Only the positive and the good can win the negative and the bad. imo, PASSION is the real source of energy you need for winning these negative emotions, and the market. Nothing in the world is powerful like pure passion. Passion is the most powerful source of energy the human-being has.
Passion to WIN is the only thing that will give a person enough energy to try and figure out this market during 30 failing years without breaking down and giving up. Greed would never do it. If money was James energy source, he would long ago leave and find another way to make money.
If your goal is making money, trading is just the tool, and it's not enough for getting over the emotions evolved.


Man...that came out to be a long rant. I swear all of this stuff got into my mind while writing. Posting my thoughts just help me to let them flow.
I know I am here to win, and nothing will stop me. Not in a zillion years I would give up.

Ben

I don't think Dion will mind me posting this but we did hear from him

Great post Benji.....

Thanks mike

Another perspective on Fear.

Fear is part of a normally functioning human being. Fear triggers the fight or flight response. The problem in trading is sometimes the fear is unjustified and that is where traders get in trouble.

On the other hand, fear may also be your friend. There actually maybe a real danger in the market that needs to be paid attention to, without fear you'd never react to real danger. Fear is more like a warning light on the dashboard of the car. It's a way of your mind and body saying, hey something isn't right.

When fear hits it is time to pay attention to what is going one within yourself and what is going on in the market. Unjustified fear will ruin you and justified fear will save you. As traders we will feel fear, but the key is how we deal with it.

I just saw a video with Jack Schwager and he told this story, thought I would share it!

A Technical Analysist and a Fundamental Analysist were having dinner, a knife fell off the table, and they both watched it fall.
It landed and stuck in the Fundamental Analysist's shoe.
The Technical Analysist said,
"Why didn't you move your foot." The Fundamental Analysist replied,
"I thought it would go back up!"

Don't try to catch the falling knife

Can I ask where you found that movie?