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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #4,781
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:26am Feb 27, 2010 9:26am
Quoting PippyD
My thoughts exactly. And that it's best to stay out of here until the direction is a bit clearer.

Not that I'm one to believe the pundits but there does seem to be some sentiment that the dollar is the best of a bad lot (EUR, JPY, USD) and will strengthen. Of course if I looked hard enough I could probably find just as many opinions that it won't. Ha! As bad as drawing trendlines. LOL!
Hahaha, I hear ya, I am just a little concerned the last impulse fell short of the previous and now that the 100SMA has been brached this to me signals a possible bullish reversal pattern at least in the near term, I still think it will head south more but right now I think it is going to turn bullish or at least has the makings for it...

--NM
  • #4,782
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:35am Feb 27, 2010 9:35am
Quoting Custos
For a while now I have been looking into targets concerning our trades...

...But in any case, the more I try to get exact entry levels, the more I also play around with exact target levels by extending my fib levels...

...What I am also playing around right now is with diagonal S/R levels. Also kind of brv style. Not necessarily only marking lows with lows & highs with highs with trendlines, but also marking lows with highs, and trying to find confluences with horizontal S/R levels + fib levels.

What do you guys think?
Custos,

Have you looked at the Fibonacci trading thread? I just browsed the other day out of curiosity. I think they are applying the same principals. Might be worth perusing for ideas.

It strikes me that the fundamental theory is sound but their charts get visually cluttered with three different Fibs. Bordering on too much of a good thing.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=50767

PD
  • #4,783
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:40am Feb 27, 2010 9:40am
What DID happen to Pip Dawg and EntropyLad? They must be tired by now.
  • #4,784
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:44am Feb 27, 2010 9:44am
Quoting PippyD
What DID happen to Pip Dawg and EntropyLad? They must be tired by now.
I am not sure what happened to them, they just plain disappeared. Maybe they are touring brazillian beach houses?

--NM
  • #4,785
  • Feb 27, 2010 10:14am Feb 27, 2010 10:14am
Quoting NightMoves
I am not sure what happened to them, they just plain disappeared. Maybe they are touring brazillian beach houses?

--NM
I'm just hoping they didn't get their wings clipped by an overzealous mod.
  • #4,786
  • Feb 27, 2010 10:17am Feb 27, 2010 10:17am
Quoting NightMoves
Trend lines are pretty subjective, you should have at least 3 touches for to make a trend line viable the more touches you get the better. Sometimes you will have and inside trend line and an ouside trend line.

And then there are times when you will have to move your trend line because the PA may have changed slightly. Lets say I draw a trend line today using the 4 hour chart and it looks great and now someone opens the same chart same time frame few days later but PA has moved to a point where my existing trend line says it has been breached...
Thanks for the explaination on this NM, much appreciated ..

Adrian
  • #4,787
  • Feb 27, 2010 1:54pm Feb 27, 2010 1:54pm
Regarding the EUR/USD pair discussion. I was messing around with MT4 and thought I'd look out of curiosity. There is quite a volume spike in recent weeks. Does anyone look at volume? Insight or noise?

Same with the COT report.

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

I'm thinking this is a good weekend topic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 2-27-2010 12-47-29.jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #4,788
  • Edited 4:39pm Feb 27, 2010 3:43pm | Edited 4:39pm
Quoting PippyD
Regarding the EUR/USD pair discussion. I was messing around with MT4 and thought I'd look out of curiosity. There is quite a volume spike in recent weeks. Does anyone look at volume? Insight or noise?

Same with the COT report.

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

I'm thinking this is a good weekend topic.
Since Forex is a decentralized market therefore the volume info cannot be tracked and is not used widely by majority of traders ....the volume that you can see is actually tick volume and dosent show the size of transactions happening as in stocks....therefore virtually meaning less.

When i sarted learning about trading i started with stocks in which volume provides very important info ...however when i switched to Forex I came know that volume is not widely used becuase one can trade mainly on price action & SR level in direction of trend. If you look at the other threads and see the posts of experienced traders you wont find volume on their charts.

There is a thread which i found on FF which is about VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) however i never pursued it due to so much confusion on whether to use volume info or not...however after going through various discussions and articles i concluded that it wont make much difference if one remove volume info from the chart as the big boys are not using it anyways and it is not considered to provide valuable info...though I would use VSA on stock or othermarkets where applicable.

COT reports are sentiment indicator of commercial and larger traders future contracts ...i started learning about it however due to time contraints and my realization that i better first master the hector style trades + TTs and move from demo to live trading then i'll top up with COT later on for longer term trades on Daily timeframe, right now i am using H4/H1 (mostly) TF in which COT wont have much use anyways.

One thing to note about COT info is that it is not as simple as getting the weekly COT numbers from the cftc website and making trade decisions there is a lot of info to filter out to reach a decision.
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

If i get a chance to go through some of the COT material i have then i'll post some findings here.
  • #4,789
  • Feb 27, 2010 4:04pm Feb 27, 2010 4:04pm
Thanks MktScape. Good information.
  • #4,790
  • Feb 27, 2010 5:25pm Feb 27, 2010 5:25pm
okay ...here is first chart .... I have identified a potential support level in yellow ...anyone considering this level for a long on H4?

other charts to follow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,791
  • Feb 27, 2010 6:58pm Feb 27, 2010 6:58pm
Last two EUR/USD W1 candles are long-legged dojis. Quite a bit of indecision here, eh?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 2-27-2010 17-49-50.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #4,792
  • Edited 7:10pm Feb 27, 2010 7:09pm | Edited 7:10pm
Quoting MktScape
okay ...here is first chart .... I have identified a potential support level in yellow ...anyone considering this level for a long on H4?

other charts to follow.
Hmmm... This is one of those could go either way deals. I'm a bit biased toward short. At least on the LTF where I've spent most of my time recently.

1. Long-term trend is down
2. Price has retraced nicely to near the 50% Fib
3. Price has respected the W1 outer trendline a couple of times
4. Last three weekly candles are indecisive or bearish
5. Has a ways to go before hitting any significant S/R on the LTF

Anybody else?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 2-27-2010 18-00-58.jpg Size: 102 KB
  • #4,793
  • Feb 27, 2010 10:21pm Feb 27, 2010 10:21pm
Quoting PippyD
Hmmm... This is one of those could go either way deals. I'm a bit biased toward short. At least on the LTF where I've spent most of my time recently.

1. Long-term trend is down
2. Price has retraced nicely to near the 50% Fib
3. Price has respected the W1 outer trendline a couple of times
4. Last three weekly candles are indecisive or bearish
5. Has a ways to go before hitting any significant S/R on the LTF

Anybody else?
I agree I was actually short on that pair on friday and only managed 25 pips, but I think it is ready to head south, the weekly trend has been respected so far and it looks like there is a bearish signal in the weekly candles, so I am thinking short on this pair if the signals hold up.

--NM
  • #4,794
  • Feb 27, 2010 10:26pm Feb 27, 2010 10:26pm
Here is the EC 4 hr chart, looks like a short setup to me? Anyone else looking at this?

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Short.png Size: 46 KB
  • #4,795
  • Feb 27, 2010 10:32pm Feb 27, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting NightMoves
I agree I was actually short on that pair on friday and only managed 25 pips, but I think it is ready to head south, the weekly trend has been respected so far and it looks like there is a bearish signal in the weekly candles, so I am thinking short on this pair if the signals hold up.

--NM
Hi NM,
On USDCHF-Daily. The uptrend is definitely strugling...however the MAs are still sloping upwards therefore before it completely heads south ... i was estimating that it would have upward reaction on H4 at the identified level...


If you are planning to enter short would that be TT or Hector style and at what level?
  • #4,796
  • Feb 27, 2010 10:42pm Feb 27, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting MktScape
Hi NM,
On USDCHF-Daily. The uptrend is definitely strugling...however the MAs are still sloping upwards therefore before it completely heads south ... i was estimating that it would have upward reaction on H4 at the identified level...


If you are planning to enter short would that be TT or Hector style and at what level?
That support level you have is where I expect it to bounce from, this pair has been in a down sloping range for while and I dont see any reason for that not to continue, when I entered it on Friday I was hoping to catch a collapse but it fell short of that expectation, and climbed back up.

I think there is some selling pressure right now but also there is fear of the SNB interjecting again no one wants to get caught in that kind of a mess.

--NM
  • #4,797
  • Feb 27, 2010 10:49pm Feb 27, 2010 10:49pm
Quoting NightMoves
Here is the EC 4 hr chart, looks like a short setup to me? Anyone else looking at this?

--NM
EC does have a strong short bias at that level ..from what i can see daily is down trending....along with RN, 50 % Fib ...there is a weekly resistance ..candle is showing a price rejection ....

I will be inclined to take this short

PS: If you would enter short on this one will you want for a bar close below the last candle? or you would simply enter a short order below the bar low and if touched you are in the trade.
  • #4,798
  • Feb 27, 2010 10:57pm Feb 27, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting MktScape
EC does have a strong short bias at that level ..from what i can see daily is down trending....along with RN, 50 % Fib ...there is a weekly resistance ..candle is showing a price rejection ....

I will be inclined to take this short
I think it is a pretty good setup there is support below the last swing low but I think it can be traded to that point, for possibly 200 pips or so...

--NM
  • #4,799
  • Feb 27, 2010 11:15pm Feb 27, 2010 11:15pm
What do you think about going short at the identified level?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-h4-Short.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #4,800
  • Feb 27, 2010 11:59pm Feb 27, 2010 11:59pm
How about a TT short at the identified level ...its appears quite strong?

- Daily trend is down with lower highs ...MAs sloping down
- MAs on H4 are down as well ... wait for a candle confirmation of a
downward reversal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY - Daily-H4.jpg Size: 155 KB
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